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Stocks Slammed To Worst Week Since Black Monday Amid Crude & Credit Carnage
Some folks were suddenly forced to sell...
And for those "shocked" that credit markets sparked this...
Before we start, summarizing the bloodbath...
- Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Down 4.8% - worst week since May 2012
- Trannies Down 4.8% - worst week in 4 months (Black Monday)
- S&P 500 Down 3.5% - worst week in 4 months (Black Monday)
- FANGs Down 3.75% - worst week in 3 months
- HYG (HY Bond ETF) Down 3.75% - worst week since March 2009
- HY CDX Up 60bps - biggest weekly spike in spreads since Dec 2014
- USD Index Down 2.5% - worst 2-week drop in 4 months
- JPY Stronger by 1.9% - worst week in 4 months
- CAD Weaker by 2.75% - worst week in 5 months
- EUR Stronger by 3.75% - best 2 week gain since Sept 2012
- Yuan down 6 weeks in a row to weakest since July 2011 - longest losing streak in history
- WTI Crude Down 10.9% - worst week since Dec 2014
- 5Y Yield Drops 13bps - biggest absolute drop in 2 months
- 30Y Yield Drops 13bps - biggest absolute drop since March 2015
The biggest news of the day/week was the sudden awakening of the rest of the world that credit's collapse is real...
This was the biggest weekly collapse in High-Yield Bonds since March 2009... with today's move, HYG wipes out all total return back to 12/12/2012 (assuming divs reinvested)
(h/t @groditi)
Weakness in US equities began early this morning after the IEA report sent crude crashing...Dow Futs down 400 from overnight highs!
Ugly day with high beta Nasdaq and Small Caps smashed lower...
On the week Trannies and Small Caps were the biggest losers...
Financials and Energy were butchered this week...
Dow joins S&P, Russell, and Trannies in red post-Paris... we're gonna need more radicals!!
Small Caps were monkey-hammered...
FANGs had their worst week in 3 months...
Led by NFLX..
But Guns were in great demand...
VIX term structure inverted short-term...
HYG had its worst day since Aug2011...
Treasury yields collaped...
2Y Yields dropped 6.5bps today... the biggest drop in 3 months...
The FX markets also turmoiled... USD weakness against all the majors (but EM FX and commodity producers crushed)...
The Yuan plunged for the 6th week in a row...
EM FX crashed by most since June 2013 (Taper Tantrum)...
Gold rallied today, but ended the week lower (along with silver) despite a weaker dollar. Copper rallied, crude didn't...
Black Gold Baumgartner'd...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: What Happens Next?
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Well, there probably WAS a 3:30 ramp too
Immediate short term WTI oversold. Within 6 months going into the 20s.
Glad im playing with the houses money.
RIPS
3:30??
it jumped about 30 point in the last 3 minutes to avoid a 2% loss for the day...
and here is ur market recap for today -
Shit is about to get real mother fuckers...no ponzi lasts forever...and i would like to personally thank u Wall St. assholes and banker fucks for the opportunity to purchase REAL SILVER below $14 debt coupon dollars....until next week....
DEATH TO THE MONECYCHANGERS.
^ Death to the New World Order.
who u think wants that???
but yeah - that too....
As economics views sotcks as a leading indicator, Yellen will have her excuse to put the rate increase on hold.
It's good to remind everyone who is squeamish about what we are actually fighting. It is a war but most don't act like it is.
fuck you etrade baby.
Still laughing at that. Of course it helps that I'm short from near the highs.
HEDGE FUND STONE LION JUST SUSPENDED REDEMPTIONS........
Hedge Fund blow ups ought to be in the cards.
I wonder if Yellen pukes up a little in her mouth at next week's Fed meeting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOiHn2LLmgM
Janet is not taking calls this weekend.
Please leave a message after the beep.
(Janet in a thought bubble:
Seems like a good time for a lost scotch weekend. When I wake up Monday morning, I will wonder where all the scotch in the cabinet went.)
What a poor way to close a Friday before a crucial XMas shopping weekend. The Masters of the Universe fucked this one up.
Nothing will stop the mindless shopping for shit nobody needs or wants. It's Christmas.
1800 bitchez
666 bitch.
Rut blood bath portends bad juju
Fuck that - I've been long TZA this week and am a happy camper. Stops are in - playing with house money now.
Let 'er rip. Santa is bringing coal the the Santa Clause rally this year.
bitchez alone is plus 1!
We need many more days like today!!
a -300 going into the weekend
haven't seen that in forever(my lifetime anyway)
a prelude of what's coming?
i'm betting green come next Mon and Tues...Wed's gonna have to be a toss-up
just live a little longer
The Fed natsi says: no green for you!
yes sir, a good week, may many moar set this muther fuker on a course to a very merry selloff season. may the grinch take a bow? long da grinch, gloom and doom and gun sales to counteract the fraud called the sad ass human condition festered as greed...
DOW dropped 531 on Friday, August 21, 2015. Short memory eh?
Green shoots! If you JUST LOOK hard enough, there ARE green shoots sprouting up everywhere in this Economy In Recovery!
No, wait, it's mold.
Oh well.
And the Frauderal Banksters can go 'due to market conditions, rates kept on hold'
Gold says "ACROSS THIS LINE, YOU DO NOT CROSS". :)
MSM still chiming buy the dip. Stock prices are going to go up in the next 100 years. Buy now, buy often!
and the shorts rejoiced!
they are doing a good job about keeping 17k and 2k in play until thee end of this inventory(goods and loans) recession. only one year to go before next christmas.
long biotech. short retail
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Suck it up bitchez!
Dow Jones will go sub 17k by the Fed meeting and they won't raise rates.
I would add that it wouldn't matter if they did.
Was thinking the same. Not sure the stick save will make a difference. Won't save credit.
Ok obviously to save this ship in the short term they need to continue QE, but raising rates will cause the Fed to sell $500B worth of securities overnight. Since they are the buyer of last resort, and all other buyers are broke, well....they won't raise rates.
Is it just me or does this weeks action look a bit similar to August??
Oil decline
Chinese currency devaluation scare
Fed rate hike "fears"
and
VOLATILITY S&P 500:
Thursday August 20: 19.14
Friday August 21: 28.03
Monday August 24: 40.74
Just saying....
Ok, bring on the -1'000 points on Monday morning!
Same tools (dump oil and USDJPY.) Interesting question is whether it'll have the same effect (postpone rate hike.)
BULLISH???
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2015/09/28/the-hidden-cost-o...
The Hidden Cost of Zero Interest Rate Policies
September 28, 2015
by Laurence B. Siegel and Thomas S. Coleman
Should the Fed raise interest rates? Some believe that ultra-low interest rates are good for investors because they drive up the prices of stocks and real estate, fattening household balance sheets. Others counter that zero rates are an insidious tax, transferring wealth from borrowers to lenders, distorting incentives and misallocating capital for individuals and government and making the American investor poorer over time.
Where you stand on the Fed raising rates is likely to depend on which of these two positions you support.
We think the latter. Zero interest rates – which translate to negative real interest rates after inflation – are a massive transfer of wealth from investors to governments and other borrowers around the world. We’ll show that the scale of the transfer is nearly $1 trillion per year in the U.S. alone and will argue that the zero-interest-rate policy lowers expected returns on stocks and real estate as well.
Low interest rates hurt more than just investors. Everyone suffers because low rates distort consumption and investment decisions, potentially causing economic growth to be slower than it otherwise would be. Initially, in 2008-2009, low interest rates were an element or consequence of a policy of liquidity injection needed to avoid a collapse of the banking system and serious depression. Since then, however, they have become a tool of stimulative macro policy with limited success.
They are disastrous as an ongoing strategy.
In 1973, the economists Ronald McKinnon and Edward Shaw, looking back on the post-World War II period, described the policies of those times as financial repression. Inflation was high and accelerating, while interest rates lagged behind. Thus, while the real economy grew strongly, savers and bondholders were devastated. The resulting “capital strike” was one of the reasons that we subsequently experienced a decade of high inflation and high unemployment.
Some current commentators, including the celebrated economist Carmen Reinhart, say that financial repression has returned.
But today’s version of financial repression is different from that of the postwar period. The voting public will no longer allow governments to inflate away their debt wholesale with bouts of high and unexpected inflation. But low inflation with even lower nominal rates will accomplish much the same over time by not paying the interest needed to compensate for inflation.
Negative real interest rates are a nefarious tax, punishing savers and depriving the economy of one of its primary sources of income. John Maynard Keynes’s 1919 warning of the effects of inflation apply to today’s era of financial repression: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens… [W]hile the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some.”
First, “just the facts, ma’am”
What has been the recent experience of interest rates and inflation? First, we need to distinguish carefully between nominal and real rates. The nominal rate is the stated rate expressed in annual terms; say, an interest rate of 2%. The real rate is the nominal rate minus inflation. For most savings, consumption and investment decisions, it’s the real rate that counts.
Exhibit 1 shows how the Fed responded to the unfolding severe recession of 2007-2009 and its aftermath. Nominal rates plunged from 4-5% in 2006-2007 to essentially zero over the last six years. Meanwhile, inflation has fluctuated around a six-year average of just under 2%. The real rate, then, has averaged just above ?2% from mid-2009 to mid-2015. During the very recent past, January 2015 to the present, the real rate has been close to zero because inflation, dominated by falling oil prices, has also been zero.
Financial repression in this century is thus represented by the space between the zero axis and the red real-rate line. That is the “tax” paid by savers due to the zero interest-rate policy. Actually, that is a low estimate of the tax because real interest rates are usually positive, representing a reward to the investor for deferring consumption.
thanks for the reminder of how fucked it is...
Milbank Advises on J.P. Morgan Asset Management – SunEdison Strategic Partnership’s Acquisition of Wind-Power Plantshttp://www.milbank.com/news/milbank-advises-on-j-p-morgan-asset-manageme...
=========
http://www.vault.com/company-profiles/law/milbank,-tweed,-hadley-mccloy-...
IWM entered but didn’t quite fill the Oct gap. More problematic are the monthly charts, with a few key technical indicators reaching levels not seen since 2008 for IWM, with DIA & SPY not far behind, suggesting we’re on the precipice of a meaningful breach for the first time in ages.
Of course, the month isn’t over, and we know how miraculous holiday volume-less ramps can be. Look for desperate hedgies and permabulls to focus on the QQQs, the index with the strongest technicals, to save the day, but if they fail, no mulligans appear to be available, with corrections from 20- 30% not at all outlandish given current charts, mid-2013 levels or lower seem reachable ,,,
Gonna take an all time track record high effort of manipulation to get this fucksticktrain back on track. Lotta damage in Russy and BKX. Everyone knows energy is crushed but they could still rampathon this turd with smallies and financials.
Disappointed in gold. Countertrend bounce off the bottom of wedge/megaphone at 1050 still in play but I'm not seeing enough enthusiasm in the move. Maybe next week.
Having videos with the market wrap everyday is stupid. That second one is really stupid.
It's for us older folks, remembering back when peoples of the LGBT community could be entertaining , rather than neurotic.
Nah, some prick with the PPT just spilled their gin&juice on the keyboard and fucked up a huge EOD buy.
Be back on track next week.
Now lets party!
Days Like This: (but this wasn’t one of them)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UUWkr4FUlo Van M.
A whole weekend for people to think why they didn't get out of the market.
Insiders selling. Junk bonds tanking. Fundamentals atrocious. I feel sorry for people because there truly is no place to invest your capital these days. Buy gold coins and cross your fingers
Especially since many are at work and can do little about it but look at the damage (401K, IRAs) when they get home. There is a reason the markets are open when they are.
Well, you can't really move your allocation around like that anyway. Delays are too long.
Most won't know what is going on with their 401k until they get their quarterly statement around February or so. I worked with these mindless idiots for a long time.
No truer statement said.
But I think if your not out of the market at this point, you have way too much money to gamble away.
What if you only hold miners? Sell & take the loss, or hold on til PMs go back up??
Easy way - buy leveraged inverse (bear) ETFs.
Note: Not for the faint of heart.
Meh, holding those inverse ETFs for more than a short period of time is a guaranteed loser.
Well, all I can say is I hope it keeps up. My "no COLA next year" social security check needs a lot more buying power.
Fuck all those rich banksters! Hope they rot.
http://safehaven.com/article/39794/a-wrap-up-of-last-weeks-peek-behind-t...
Current trends continue as the strong dollar buys services and pressures manufacturing.
You can bet the Fed is watching hourly earnings as it balances its stock market inflation operation against what might happen if people make too much money by actually working (as opposed to the market's 'wealth effect') and prospering within the economy. Compensation for all workers is grinding upward and that is where conventional economists (like those at the Fed) are going to get spooked about inflation getting out of hand.
The S&P 500 can go up from 666 (the mark of the devil) to 2134 since 2009, but to have workers' pay go up from 22 to 25 bucks an hour over the same period? Evidently, that will not do as inflation might get out of hand (sarcasm alert #2).
The Fed is not for the people. I don't think I am enlightening anyone with that comment. The Fed is for corporations and in particular, financial corporations.
In my opinion, the great post-2008 economic cycle, touted so conventionally by so many as being normal, has gone something like this... asset market meltdown due to over-leveraged financial institutions > bailout at public expense through QE inflation (now showing up in services throughout the economy) and 7-year ZIRP > asset speculators richly rewarded > savers punished > employment much improved but wages not keeping up with costs of important services > Fed, fearing its repressed inflation will be forceful, begins to tighten long after first abusers have locked away bailout gains... or something like that.
Everything goes south on Monday. Then ramp job off the retest of Aug 24 lows in the afternoon. Santa Clause rally Tuesday - Friday. January we head south again.
Maybe. But maybe Santa only brings coal this year, as retail sales continue to lag.
Totally agree. The top is in.
No, no, no, no not the way it is scripted ...
Dow futures 160 down at 9am, followed by a tear-your-face-off rally after the NY exchange opens. Buying panic ensues, followed by a pair of 800+ days down, back to back. Watch for it, CAUSE I TOLD YOU SO. Told ya so, told ya so.
So there.
he he heeeeee +1 that could happen too.
CRB now at 40yr lows.
Took up Netflix free over Xmas... I suspect many others do too.
I bought diesel fuel on both Wednesday, 09 December 2015, and Friday, 11 December 2015. The price dropped $0.20 per gallon between Wednesday and Friday. I can't complain about that. That black deflation cloud has a silver lining.
Hey you 1%ers holding 95% of the world's equities: Have a nice, relaxed, long weekend.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=Valug&in...
Aint nothing changed! For those who think this is the end, think again. This is just the beginning. The stakes are too high. We are at a point where they can crash the world economy back to the stoneage. The FED has painted itself into a corner. The moneychangengers and their algo's depend on their every word. The criminals in congress need to keep that fiat flowing to fund their voting meal ticket. This shit show is just getting started.
What happens next?
Stocks temper tantrum down for 2 more days next week giving the FED reason to not raise rates!
Rinse, lather, repeat...
good thing i wore my shorts mon, tide going out...maybe to my ankles this time...no where to hide but PM's & large dose of patience.
today was just another false positive, unlike most of my piss tests
LMAO @ chart orgy
Plunge protection team, couldn`t hold at 200 points down, but were successful at holding at 300.....
Now, for Monday, if Sellers pause, they can run it back up 300 points.....
So, CNBC storyline for the weekend:......Buy on the dip......
And after 2016 election, Plunge protection team balance sheet will show government now owns over 51% of all major corporation stock, and now controls all major business......Then communism can really get down to business running America.....
This will be shown as the real reason, corporations were desperate to buy their own shares back, before the government owns them....
Hows that for a conspiracy theory?......LMAO!.......
And for those of you who think that theory is 100% bunk.....Ask yourself this......With a bunch of marxists in charge of the FED`s printing press, who`s to stop them from printing their way to ownership of Americas corporations?........Is their a 1% chance now?......
Maybe...or, maybe it's just exactly what they wanted in order to give the Fed pause for thought.
http://pebblewriter.com/the-horrible-case/
J.P. Morgan analysts wrote that the three best leading indicators for recession have been credit spreads, the shape of the yield curve and profit margins.
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Investors in high-yield bonds are expecting to see their first negative return since the start of the credit crisis in 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deteriorating-junk-bonds-flash-warning-signs-for-stocks-2015-12-07?dist=afterbell
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Wondered yesterday whether this might happen. Not sure that 2% will do the trick, though.
"...one other possibility that shouldn’t be completely ignored. As we’ve seen in the past, a sudden, severe plunge in stocks can be very effective in changing the FOMC’s plans.
Were SPX to drop to, say, 1920, 1856 or 1823 in the next several sessions (6.4, 9.6 or 11.2%), there’s a pretty good chance that the Fed would delay actual implementation of a rate hike."
http://pebblewriter.com/the-horrible-case/
Stock and bond markets dropping in anticipation of the supposed dec 16 rate hike. Oil is just fucked.
Elated that I moved my entire 401k to money market yesterday....
Depressed that my entire 401k is less than 1 months rent .......
Some things the US dollar represents:
Deficit of 18 Trillion
College loans that can never be repaid
Consumer topped out on credit
Increasing trade deficit
Manufacturing sector decline
Hone ownership decline
Increasing income disparity
Disfunctioal poitical system
Continuing unwinnable wars
Immigration crisis
Police crisis, mass shootings
Banker bubblemania
Retirement crisis
Deflation
Hidden unemployment, underemployment
Unfair taxation, loopholes, corporate havens
Skyrocketing healthcare costs
HAVE A HAPPY HOLIDAY, SCHIZOPHRENIC AMERICA, KEEP BELIEVING IN THE FED AND SANTA CLAUS
Sweet. Bonus chart.
I only need another 100 point drop by Friday..... for my SDS option be back in the money.
Watch me join the circus
Watch me steal the show
There ain't no easy money
There ain't no easy road