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Is This What Happens On Monday?
Four months ago, China decided to devalue the Yuan sending a shudder up and down collateral chains globally and forcing carry trade unwinds and derisking everywhere. Friday August 21st saw notable weakness as that weakness washed ashore in US equities.. and then Black Monday struck. The ensuing debacle stalled The Fed and shocked markets.
The last week, we have seen China devalue the Yuan very significantly, EM capital markets turmoiling, and today, that was ashore in US equities... what happens next?
Deja vu?
Deja vu?
As a reminder, JPMorgan's "seer" Marko Kolanovic warned this week that...
"As for near-term risks—we believe the most imminent market catalyst will be the December Fed meeting in which we are likely to see the first rate hike of the cycle."
But to a market which has traded mostly on technicals and program buying (and selling) in recent months, there is something far more troubling than just what the Fed will announce:
This important event falls at a peculiar time—less than 48 hours before the largest option expiry in many years. There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market.
What does this mean? Considering that the bulk of the puts have been layered by the program traders themselves, including CTA trend-followers, and since the vol surface of the market will be well-known to everyone in advance, there is a very high probability the implied "stop loss" level will be triggered, and the market could trade to a level equivalent to the strike price, somewhere in the 1,800 area, or nearly 200 points below current levels.
Which would be a tragedy for the Fed: after all, nothing is more important to Yellen, Draghi et al, than affirmative market signaling - pointing to the (surging) market's reaction and saying "look, we did the right thing", just as Draghi did on Friday when he explicitly talked the market higher in the aftermath of the ECB's disastrous announcement.
The irony will be if, regardless of what the Fed does, the subsequent move is driven not by the market's read through of monetary policy but by the "pin" in this massive $1.1 trillion option expiry, the biggest in many years, one which if recent market action is an indicator, suggests the stop loss strike level will be taken out in the process setting the "psychological" stage for market participants who will look at the drop in the market, and equate it with a vote of no confidence in what the Fed is doing, potentially forcing the Fed to backtrack in less than 2 days!
Whether this happens remains to be seen, and we are confident the Fed's "arm's length" market-moving JV partner, Citadel, is currently scrambling to prevent any imminent selloff. However, considering Kolanovic' track record of hinting at key risk inflection risk, it is quite likely that whatever the ultimate closing price on December 16 and, more importantly, December 18, volatility may very soon have an "August 24" type event.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Here's the original.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g5vH9A8t9I
that was back when great fortunes could be made in the usa for producing nothing of any value, but they could also lose great fortunes. now the fed has made it where the maggots always win and can never lose.
turn those machines back on!
True. Kind of makes me nostalgic.
Butt what about the blow-up doll with life-like hair and a vibrating anus ??? that's a real "market makers" present, along with some blow ...
:sigh: do i really need to pull out that zh (obviously manipulated) equity opex chart again? there ain't no way in fuck those puts are going to pay. whoever bought those isn't hedging, have nothing to sell, and are purely speculating on what the fed will do. old yeller gots 2 strikes, and no ballz. swing, whiff, aw shucks, missed it by :that: much.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2...
found it. december bonus time again bitchez.
Updated one
https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/spy58.png
So much press over a move that amounted to less than 2% on the major equity indexes. I recall a few decades ago when 1% or 2% daily moves weren't considered outlandish -- rather, they were fairly commonplace. I guess after 7 years of supressed vol there is a whole new generation of market observers/participants that gets shocked by such wiggles.
At any rate, it seems like a good time to flatten out exposures and keep the beta near zero. Next week has such unpredictable probabilities built in that any directional bet seems kind of foolhardy.
So... BTFD on Monday? SPX climbed in the months following that dip.
Yellen will call in sick.... yeah, that's the ticket. Decision will be delayed until she comes back after the holidays.
good one... :)
Nail gun injury?
mini stroke again?
as a reminder of the video courtesy of zh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ2UAYgIXG8
Maybe she was faking and was really planning ahead!
Not buying it; all the Lamestream is screaming market trouble (blowing up the euphoria for the kill-imo); massive short squeeze. I'll take the other side of the heard or as many would say without the superlative; BTD.
A very big dip (Monday and/or Tues.), then the 16th (hike and gov't funding runs out) leading into the OPEX on the 18th. One of two thing look to happen; it all implodes or another head fake. I say head-fake. Then later the implosion.
They ain't blowing anything up until good and ready. Hell the insiders are still selling all their stock. Up and down and boring fleecing. Gotta give mom and pop an illusion of Holidays....then back to raping the economy. All the real insiders still need higher stock prices to sell....and more monopoly mergers to run up. This is not ending yet.
Whatever happens, EVERYTHING WILL PLUNGE! If they rates raise, the frackers & pretty much every business with a high yielding bond they owe jack on becomes worthless because they won't be able to pay the interest or roll-over the debt to new rates; TIMMMMMMBERRRRRR GOES THE MARKET... If they do nothing, once again signaling that the jobs & inflation numbers reported are the pure bullshit any ZHer knows they are, THINGS STILL PLUNGE because everything actually is not awesome and in fact sucks bovine scrotum and isn't worth the fiat printed...
santa rally this year will be a non-energy-producing lump of coal or a debt bomb blowing up any high yielding bond holder and all muppets with index funds will be losing their fiat hand over fist.
Just means that the fracking industry gets bought at pennies . Scooping up the real assets in very controlled crashes. Some people have a desire to own everything and not pay for it. Fracking, Oil industry, all the mining companies, farmlands, water rights, sand, electricity, media, .......all in good time my precious.
Need another few suicide bombers in weird places. Some more lone gunmen shooters. More blow them up real good scenarios. Population is not cowed enough quite yet.
AND just spell it out. Precious. It is all about owning everything absent any labour. But is comes down to Precious as primary. Miners are in the toilet. suspending dividends, layoffs. Stock price collapses.
Precious. Been hoarded for centuries.
The algos will save us!
J.P. Morgan analysts wrote that the three best leading indicators for recession have been credit spreads, the shape of the yield curve and profit margins.
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Investors in high-yield bonds are expecting to see their first negative return since the start of the credit crisis in 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deteriorating-junk-bonds-flash-warning-signs-for-stocks-2015-12-07?dist=afterbell
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
So you are saying we're fucked.
I'm assuming this doesn't come as a surprise to you.
Not in so many words!
Amd you are saying that JP Morgan is guiding you properly?
Go get a beer and think. JP Morgan is giving you charts and advice? yeah OK.
Gee, Mr. Barber....
Do I need a haircut?
The Fed can't raise rates or I lose my bet to the guy in the cube next to me and have to buy him lunch.
I doubt that will be a factor in the decision making process!
I lose 40 bucks. What a pussy bet.
Buy him some freeze dried food, if the Fed raises rates he's going to need it. They are going to raise this time ....
Is This What Happens On Monday?Are you asking me??
Given your avatar, I hope the answer is "No, we are not asking you."
we are not asking you.
So you think you represent zero hedge?? Well you said we...Who is we??? TARABEL.
ISIS Plumbing
MARK-1 Plumbing.....
I we assume the FED controls the market, which many do, they will raise rates a little, in order to not lose face, and to give it the impression that this is a good thing will prop up the market with all their printed up might. The algo's will do the rest. The FED is in the habit to surprise everybody to show off their almightiness. So in the short term the FED will always win but in the longer term it's much different.
If the FED chickens out the market will tank and they will lose control all together. They will eventually, like said, but they've saved the day like they always do. Same as it ever was https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98AJUj-qxHI
What’s wrong dude!? You Yellen!, Ahahahahaha that’s what I thought Yellen Pelly http://youtu.be/0c-UIkfsk1U?t=1m49s
FED raises rate to .oooooooooooooooooooo1% for 3 days then retracts back to o% with speech about how this was only a test of the emergency financial system. If this were not a test you would have been instructed to bend over, stick your head between your legs and shout, "TAKE IT OUT!"
"And finally, in our market roundup, the US Stock Market. Brad, was it up or down?"
"Yes."
thanks brad, now onto the weather
don't forget the traffic report
Why do so many Zeroes want the market to implode and America to fail?
No one here wants Miseery. However anyone sane understands that it is invevitable and the sooner you get to it the quicker you get through it (maybe).
Because everybody is fed up with them and want to get back with what they realy like do to, drinking Pina Collada and fucking around https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q659IaXrS3Y
Schadenfreude.
I think most only want all the interventions to stop. The market probably needs to crash for that to happen.
Most do want all manipulations to stop. I fear (and I do fear) that is will not until a massive amount of bloodshed instigated by the masses takes back life/labour. Think that will happen? I doubt it, too many already programmed serfs satisfied with crumbs and crime.
It is the Fed that is creating all the zeroes and caused the failure (note: past tense) that happened since 'the Maestro' did all his magic tricks on the nation and all the plebes that have followed his footsteps. ZH just points at the truth of the matter, it makes no difference that others such as yourself cannot see it quite yet... you will.
That wasn't serial killer like creepy or nothing!
Well, Mr. Two Weeks in, most of us don't.
We DO, collectively, rail against THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, which LONG has stopped "representing" us.
But keep reading. 2 weeks in is not enough to form an opinion...unless, you have the attention span of a knat.
This is not Newser, Yahoo, AOL, or even that bastion of one way effluvium, The Huffington Post.
Pay attention.
Dismissed....
silent consonants can be tough Jim. We all know that - but it's 'gnat' you fucking retard. unless of course you're talking about that tv station in Albuquerque.
dismissed....
I stand corrected.
However.....
Run on sentences, without a capital at the beginning of that sentence, are a mark of a total fuckwad. But, most don't know that.
I do.
It's so .......you.
Capitals and G's. Seriously? seriously. Life must be really great if these are on the front burner.
From google:
knat: a genus of African evergreen shrubs characterized by thick leaves and white flowers
Say you meant this knat. Never apologize.
Now you, opt out, have demonstrated the perfect example of the proverbial "swallowing of an entire camel while straining at a gnat"?
I'd not ever thought that I'd read that epitome of hypocrisy, and the demonstration of that in print.
I guess I am getting closer to seeing everything.
Gnat. Silent G.
Dis iz naught Inglish Grammer, or speweling claze, u idziot.
The 'market' is total fraud.
The banking system is total fraud.
That's why so many Zeroes want them to fail.
The fact that the US, and most of the world's governments, are based on the above fraud explains the rest.
Honest money is what any reasonably well informed and intelligent person would see is the solution to most of the problems facing humanity.
Fiat money and fractional reserve banking are fraud.
Income tax is no different from protection money.
Government is indistinguishable from organized crime.
Without fiat and central banking, wars would be unaffordable.
Read some history.
Time for individual freedom, along with the responsibility for one's own actions.
Amen
No one will ever live long enough to enact any meaningful change. People (in general) find it hard to even take care of themselves.
I personally see it as heralding the arrest of the Illuminati and a golden age of humanity.
Yellen needs to enlist Greenspan's aid in writing the Fed's post-meeting announcement. He's the maestro of incomprehensible Fedspeak. After the Fed's announcement no one would know if the Fed was actually raising rates, not raising rates, lowering rates, or playing Scrabble.
We knew only by the thickness of his briefcase.
I'll wager my left testicle and a kidney that before 2015 is in the record books, we have a screaming ass rally the likes you have never seen in your entire life. Any takers? If you don't need a nut or kidney, I'd substitute an eye, or maybe some foreskin......
not many foreskins left on wall st.
hey, dats raycist
Any "religion"/brutality that has to resort to mutilating/covering up the body is not a 'religion' but a means of submitting the people to a rule of torture and fear of death/not being the chosen
NOT a religion but a means of control by psychopaths
Things sure have gotten better in America now that the secular humanists are in complete control of the joint.
sure you didn't mean fem·i·nist?
It is just an avatar.
Clever.
Perhaps that is why he will take them...the lack of supply.
is this the hidabeast, slick willy's part time bee atch
No, she's a full time be-yotch.
Probably works a lot of OT as well.
I can't recall the last time I saw the two of them together in the same photo.
But I'm sure it was arranged after the exposure of one or another of their myriad criminal schemes.
arkancide.com
hmmm, after 7 years of being fucked by obama, I might need a new asshole. What do ya got in the asshole department?
Used but still in mint condition?
Used with cosmetic wear only?
Used with moderate mileage?
Used, high mileage but still flexible?
Used, selling for parts only?
https://www.toydemon.com/ might help
The answer lies in three questions
1) What do the Globalists want - A crisis so the world is unified under one flag
2) What do the Neocons want - War (russia / China / Iran) doesnt really matter with who
3) What do the Jews (Rothschilds) want - Buy all remaining assets at fire sale prices
A rate rise would directly cause 1 and 3, and indirectly 2. I would have thought that they would have let China and russia weaken and experience internal unreset before they pulled the pin, but perhaps they are ready....
I think you have the answer to all 3 questions already. Globalists and Rothschild et al are more or less one and the same. But there are convenient minions who have wealth and power BUT do not have the bloodlines.
So really it comes down to neocons for the most part are minions. Politicians, Clintons would be cast aside in a second.
but think you got that right.....all real assets for pennies. Global control of every single real asset (but hidden behind the scenes). And a world of slaves. Mind a good World War that cuts down the population is likely a goal. Not for the money at this point but for the "culling of the herd".
Seen how they treat chickens in a farm factory? Do not flatter that your life means one damn thing more than that....
But I digress.
TO TELL THE TRUTH
It's #1 Bud. That's what SPURS #2 and #3 - manipulates it.
The Mob - globally, and the merchant bankers are in evvvvvvvvvverything.
Led by The Squid.
Rothschilds want the market to rally. As it did after their Nov 13 project.
It won't.
Rockerfellas have surrendered.
Fed fucks the market once and for all
All an effort to obtain a 2,000 point Santa Clause rally. LOL.
Some mysterious buyer will save us monday through wednesday - no rate increase because of the markets this past week so Christmas is saved as well.
Oy! Jew-controlled stock market soon go new highs. We rule and fool you goyim. Markets not trade on “technicals” or “fundamentals”. We use wordsmithing and controlled media to justify our day-to-day manipulated movements of markets. Watch food, shelter, energy costs go higher. Everything you stupid goyim need to live day-to-day will cost more. We will break you completely! We drive cost up by manipulating future contract prices. Hahaha! Only thing we take much lower be gold and silver. Force you sell for pennies on dollar of true value. Let the goyim kvetching begin. But don’t blame us poor jews. We had holocaust. We are so persecuted. If you expose us we call you anti-semite and racist. Put you in prison. Heh heh. Oy vey!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSFxm3IxI9U
It's only good business.
They won't do it.
The 401(k) people de-allocating on Friday? But you know how that shit works, don't you? The fund managers will have to sell. It's gonna be like shooting fish in a barrel.
The Federal Reserve will be irrelevant and have zero credibility remaining no matter what it does on 16 December.
What luck that it will have two three-day (bank) holiday weekends in its favor during the last half of the month.
WAR.
it's what's for monday.
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, say it again.
Huh!
obama, What is he good for?
Absolutely nothing, say it again
HuH!
We're already at war.
Then you mean the War Powers Act violating, unconstitutional, dehumanizing, and illegal war?
(yes)
(true)
(since 2001)
WAR: It's what's for dinner!
15,000 quatloos the Fed will need to be destroyed.
I know what happens on Monday ...
(that's when the shiving starts)
http://iamsully.com/?p=15223
If this is what happens when the 'Fed' tries to raise rates by .25, then why, would anybody in their right mind ever put a single dollar into the stock market again.
In so many ways, you.are.fucking.doomed
Monday morning: sad trombone
Monday evening: happy slidewhistle from all the profit-takers
Watch your wallets, mates!
Wild Indians gonna take scalps.
*pelts
<-----BULLBEARISH
<-----BEARBULLISH
as always...trade appropriately...
Axioms apply:
Know The Truth, Trade The Lie...
The Market Can Be Irrational Longer Than You Can Retain ...YOUR SANITY, ACCOUNT BALANCE, ALL VESTIGES OF MORALITY....
Because....IT'S A SHIT-SHOW!
Many years now have warned. Get out. Get out of every market you can. I don't even favour Credit Unions so much as they are copyng the fee model/profit centres of big banks,
<-----Demopublican
<-----Republicrat
Take your choice America.
Fed raises rates.
Leprechauns cause unicorn stampede in Atlantis.
I'm the one that's got to die when it's time for me to die, so let me live my life the way I want to.”
Jimi Hendrix
people forget about a pent up roof refered to as a penthouse...then there is the peak cant go any higher. vintage maseratis selling for 35G several years ago now 400G LOL buy buy
The problem I have seen with miniatures is that the liquid just evaporates somehow through the plastic or whatever....
the more 'doomsday scenarios' i read in the media, the more i feel like vomiting.
bring it on. let' get it over with already. sometimes the only way out is through.
I wonder what S&P Puts Soros has on hand.
Fed raises rates so they can lower them when bonds implode.
Do they wish more bonds for collateral? Yes. Do they need a supply? Yes. Who can they get to sell bonds? I don't fucking know but they need to start a decline and hope someone unloads bonds so they can use the fucking shit for collateral on the tbtf banks balance sheets because there is some fuckery afoot about defaults they can't hide.
fuckery, great word!
I shit, shower, shave, grab a cup of coffee and go to work like a slave. Same Monday as last Monday. Nothing new. Fuck you. (Only put the fuck you in there because it sounded good. Fight Club. )
No doubt, I hear ya. After grabbing your cup of Joe on your way out the door this Monday you may want to grab your Bug Out Bag and throw it in your trunk and leave it there for the next month or two. It may come in very handy soon....
From your 'larm clock's warning
Take the 8:15 into the city
There's a whistle up above
And people pushin', people shovin'
And the girls who try to look pretty
And if your train's on time
You can get to work by nine
And start your slaving job to get your pay
If you ever get annoyed
Look at me I'm self-employed
I love to work at nothing all day
source: http://www.lyricsondemand.com/b/bachmanturneroverdrivelyrics/takincareofbusinesslyrics.html
My prediction fwiw...
Fed will raise in the most pathetic, grovelling, market rimjobbing-way possible and stocks will resultingly bust their load and go up
I'll for my comments, between 4-6 weeks for now. (Probably longer, if russia's FSB read this comment. But still should be <3 months from now).
I have suspicions, but no proof until a later date. However, i know Putin's wouldn't made empty threat from past experience.
I'll be patiently wait for this space, until what i think would happens? Happened..
That is a lot of words to say nothing.
I hope English is not his first language
It was google-translated from Elbonian
why does the devauluation of the yuan lead to carry trade unwinds? [sincerely asking]
You lend US$ at near zero rate, convert them in yuan and get a higher interest rate. Then you gain money. Now, the yuan devalues AND their interest rate is also dropping. You loose the incentive of investing in yuan since your gains disappear and reconvert the yuans to the US$ to repay your loan. That's why.
The Fed will not raise interest rates.
Rigged securities markets will explode higher into option expiry.
Gold will have a short-lived subdued rally (15-20 dollars).
Oil will go up 60-70 cents or so.
And this will continue 'til year's end.
Then it's 2016.
Either humans cease existing as a sentient species or they are culled en mass.
You choose.
(the joooz know)
My crystal ball says to look at the past to see the future. In other words, a bumpy week that closes higher after all the ptbs agree on a plan to save each other's ass and kick the can down the road AGAIN.
>thinking Lucy won't pull the football away this time.
hilarious
What will happen? What "happens" is almost exclusively in favor of the jew bankers. Now what could that possibly be? yep, jew world order, and how do we accomplish that? By simultaneously collapsing all of the world's major economies. Then who to blame other than the jew bankers who caused it, and how to "fix" it so it's in the best interests of the jew bankers.
expand expand expand > contract!
history
P < P + I
What happens on Monday? More douchebaggery and buggering of the common folk by your jew maters
Nah, nothing is going to happen. The Fed will raise because they are sadly lacking in credibility and have to do something to show that they still matter. Anybody who is anybody knows that and so it is priced in. They will raise rates a couple of times and then resort to more QE once the recession that we are currently in is recognized. Rinse and repeat.
Who's got the certificate in his name! Who cares!
Why are we guessing, as if everything depends on a coin toss, heads or tails? Somebody must *know*. I don't just mean the Insiders who make the decision. I mean somebody must have some kind of yardstick or metric to measure and judge this thing with. I wish they'd share it.
But whether the Fed raises rate or doesn't raise rates, or only raises rates a teentsy-weentsy-widdle-bitty-bit, I personally am eager to see the beginning of the long-awaited, long-foretold "shit show." I *want* their whole crooked, fraudulent house of cards to fall. I *want* the walls to come tumbling down. How'd that line go in the theme song of the "Squidbillies" cartoon? "Let 'er blow!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C5F9uCifD4
This shit was contained until the emergence of derivatives in the '90's.Wait until the real show starts and then they try and cash in their CDS and so forth.Warm up those printers....