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Hilsenrath Just Reset Market Expectations: "Fed Is Worried Rates Will End Up Right Back At Zero"
Two weeks ago, we predicted that if the same September storm clouds return, and if December, which is increasingly looking as shaky as August as a result of a return of China deval fears, soaring dollar concerns and - the cherry on top - the collapse in junk bonds, forcing the Fed to have some literally last minute concerns about a rate hike, then the Fed's official mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath will be very busy...
If Fed has any doubts about December, Hilsenrath will soon be very busy
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 30, 2015
... as he scarmbles to realign market expectations of a rate hike "because the economy is oh so strong", with the reality that a rate hike may just unleash the next Lehman event of the past 8 years.
It looks like Hilsenrath indeed had a very busy weekend with his Fed "sources", as he attempts to readjust the market consensus for a December rate hike lower, warning that the Fed's "big worry is they'll end up right back at zero."
For some inexplicable reason, he also adds that "Federal Reserve officials are likely to raise their benchmark short-term interest rate from near zero Wednesday, expecting to slowly ratchet it higher to above 3% in three years. But that's if all goes as planned." Well, just how many things can take place in the next 72 hours that derail the Fed's "planning?" And just what kind of lift-off is this, if the Fed's decision is quite literally dependent on daily market, pardon economic, fluctuations?
It was not immediately clear what the answer to these questions is. What Hilsenrath did answer, however, is why and how the Fed will proceed to cut rates right back to zero. Here is Hilsy:
Any number of factors could force the Fed to reverse course and cut rates all over again: a shock to the U.S. economy from abroad, persistently low inflation, some new financial bubble bursting and slamming the economy, or lost momentum in a business cycle which, at 78 months, is already longer than 29 of the 33 expansions the U.S. economy has experienced since 1854.
Sounds an awful lot like setting the stage for an imminent, and confidence destroying, rate cut unleashed by, drumroll, the Fed's own rate hike. In fact, so likely is that the Fed's rate hike will be the catalyst for the Fed's next easing cycle, that practically nobody has any doubt:
Among 65 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month, not all of whom responded, more than half said it was somewhat or very likely the Fed's benchmark federal-funds rate would be back near zero within the next five years. Ten said the Fed might even push rates into negative territory, as the European Central Bank and others in Europe have done--meaning financial institutions have to pay to park their money with the central banks.
Traders in futures markets see lower interest rates in coming years than the Fed projects in part because they attach some probability to a return to zero. In December 2016, for example, the Fed projects a 1.375% fed-funds rate. Futures markets put it at 0.76%.
Among the worries of private economists is that no other central bank in the advanced world that has raised rates since the 2007-09 crisis has been able to sustain them at a higher level. That includes central banks in the eurozone, Sweden, Israel, Canada, South Korea and Australia.
"They effectively have had to undo what they have done," said Susan Sterne, president of Economic Analysis Associates, an advisory firm specializing in tracking consumer behavior.
Here is the bigger problem: what the Fed has done - which is very little for the actual economy - is to push the S&P from 666 to 2100. It is the undoing of that most market participants are terrified about, and what will be to most, very unpleasant.
The pre-emptive excuses continue:
The Fed has never started raising rates so late in a business cycle. It has held the fed-funds rate near zero for seven years and hasn't raised it in nearly a decade. Its decision to keep rates so low for so long was likely a factor that helped the economy grow enough to bring the jobless rate down to 5% last month from a recent peak of 10% in 2009. At the same time, waiting so long might mean the Fed is starting to lift rates at a point when the expansion itself is nearer to an end.
Ms. Sterne said the U.S. expansion is now at an advanced stage and consumers have satisfied pent-up demand for cars and other durable goods. She's worried it doesn't have engines for sustained growth. "I call it late-cycle," she said.
Actually, there is one time when the Fed waited this long to tighten conditions, in fact waited too long: the economy was already in recession. That was back in 1936. What happened next was the second part of the Great Depression and a 50% collapse in the Dow Jones.
Hilsenrath's odd litany of preemptive excuses continues:
Several factors have conspired to keep rates low. Inflation has run below the Fed's 2% target for more than three years. In normal times the Fed would push rates up as an expansion strengthens to slow growth and tame upward pressures on consumer prices. With no signs of inflation, officials haven't felt a need to follow that old game plan. Moreover, officials believe the economy, in the wake of a debilitating financial crisis and restrained by an aging population and slowing worker-productivity growth, can't bear rates as high as before. Its equilibrium rate--a hypothetical rate at which unemployment and inflation can be kept low and stable--has sunk below old norms, the thinking goes.
That means rates will remain relatively low even if all goes as planned. If a shock hits the economy and sends it back into recession, the Fed won't have much room to cut rates to cushion the blow.
This goes to the question of what r* is, or the Equilibrium Real Interest rate, one which as we showed last week, is almost entirely a function of nominal US economic growth rate (very low) and consolidated debt/GDP (at 350%, it's very high). Under current conditions, it is either negative or just barely in the positive, suggesting any Fed rate hike will be followed by an immediate rate cut, something Hilsenrath just acknowledged.
The excuses continue:
Among the risks to the economy are financial booms that could turn to busts. One is in commercial real estate. Another in junk bonds is already fizzling. Each of the past three expansions was accompanied by an asset price bust--residential real estate in 2007, tech stocks in 2001 and commercial real estate in the early 1990s.
Normally in a recession the Fed cuts rates to stimulate spending and investment. Between September 2007 and December 2008 it cut rates 5.25 percentage points. Between January 2001 and June 2003 the cut was 5.5 percentage points, while from July 1990 to September 1992 it was 5 percentage points.
If the Fed wants to reduce rates in response to the next shock, it will be back at zero very quickly and will have to turn to other measures to boost growth.
Yup: such as QE4 and NIRP, which are inevitable, but which the Fed wants to "hike" rates first just so it has the alibi to unleash even more easing. And now even Hilsenrath is warning that this is the endgame:
Fed officials worry a great deal about the risk. The small gap between zero and where officials see rates going "might increase the frequency of episodes in which policy makers would not be able to reduce the federal-funds rate enough to promote a strong economic recovery...in the aftermath of negative shocks," they concluded at their October policy meeting, according to minutes of the meeting.
In short, the age of unconventional monetary policy begun by the 2007-09 financial crisis might not be ending.
Coming from Hilsenrath, it does not get any clearer than that.
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I told you her nuts weren't big enough
And when it all falls apart Janet Yellen will be found to have had Alzheimer's for at least the last 6 months.
This will absolve anyone else in the FED from having to take blame for this collapse. "She was in charge. We thought she knew what she was doing."
Mark my words.
Yes, it appears Mr Bowl Cut Yellin is the fall guy.
End the Fed!
I called this one on Friday… it’s bonus season.
Rally Ho, Lads.
"Everything's Crashing"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-11/everythings-crashing#comment-6910102
All this shit crashes whether she raises rates or not....
Well yeah... but not before the bonus checks are handed out.
Now go back and take away that dumb red vote.
Tylers enough already with this "as we predicted" shit. At this point your rhetoric is so confused, I don't think ***YOU*** have the faintest where you stand on the "lift-off or no lift-off debate".
You want to make a prediction, make it clearly, succinctly here and now and stop with the playing all sides bullshit.
Tyler's got em where he wants em. The fed will now look like idiots either way.
How does a newspaper columnist become a federal economist, full of fed knowledge and insight into policy? Any of you know any writers? Are they particularly learned individuals? lol. I gotta say John, you don't fool me one bit.
Meet the Fed itself, using this pawn as their public voice. Of course, if Yellen were to take the mic and say what this tard says, markets would jerk. But he gets to ease the policy to the public first.
End the Fed and FARCE.
LOL
>In an interview this week on the Freakonomics Podcast, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke blundered by accidentally telling the truth regarding his penchant for painting unjustifiably rosy economic pictures while in office, saying, "I was representing the administration. And you don't really want to go out and say, 'Run for the hills,' right?" <
But I thought everything was awesome, what with 5% unem[ployment and all?
I almost choked on my own vomit on that statement
These people don't have a clue what's going on.
beg to differ; they know exactly what they are doing, enriching their buds. the rest is to another liftoff. let me explain: they got mainstream to think hike and markets to react. now we don't get it and off to the santa rally and plus for the year. soooooooooooo, wtf'g soooooooo simple-BTFD!
Jews in the news. Quel surprise!
0% is Kosher.
“they know exactly what they are doing, enriching their buds"
They know exactly what they are doing... enriching their Fed shareholder money center banks, JPM, Morgan Stanley, Citi, BofA et al.
Fixed it.
A failure to act this week will have such drastic consequences on credit markets, I don't even think old Hilsenrat has a clue as to what will hit.
Without QE nor the hint of consistent Fed policy there is no reason to buy the bonds of a vapid, dying, debt ridden nation with no sign of sustainable REAL economic expansion in the next decade.
Janet is in a tough spot. If she raises rates, the whole house of cards collapses. But if she doesn't, then America continues with its endless Japanese-style deflationary recession. So what's a FED chief to do? Cut her some slack.
Could this mean we'll soon see Yellen finding herself without a job?
No SOUP FOR YOU !
http://goo.gl/3G3r6i
Gold probably will get whacked on Tuesday and Wednesday, so with another rate cut and more QE4 and NIRP on the nearby horizon, it might be a good opportunity to buy?
Does anybody know at which time the official announcement/press conference is tomorrow? I'm quite busy after Wednesday, so I might be able to quickly buy some more gold tomorrow afternoon in Europe.
... as he scarmbles to realign market expectations of a rate hike "because the economy is oh so strong", with the reality that a rate hike may just unleash the next Lehman event of the past 8 years.
Seems to me they made the decision to have another Lehman event back when they decided to prop up the markets during the last crash.
For certain, the SEC has our back with a rule proposed on Friday, December 11:
https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/NewsArticle/166...
The SEC proposed a rule that would force ETF's to limit their derivatives exposure, possibly forcing most leveraged ETF's to close.
Add this piece of information to the NYSE eliminating Stop and Good till Cancelled Orders in early 2016 (participation by brokerage may vary), and things are certainly looking up.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/nyse-to-phase-out-gtc-and-stop-trading-ord...
The Fed, like the fraudulent media refuses to tell the truth. Shadowstats.com and a host of other economists, like Paul Craig Roberts, knows the BLS doesn't even count long term, or medium term unemployment figures. You include those stats and you see about 18%-20% unemployment. Thusly, the figure of working age folks aged 24-59 is 94.5 million citizens.
Are you sure? For seven years, they've been stressing that the Fed is independent from the administration! This would suggest that they've been lying all along. Can this be possible?
I thought the Fed was politically neutral and independent.
..just like Jamie Dimon, Robert Rubin and Lloyd Blankfein.
They got themselves in this pickle, the Tylers had nothing to do with it.
My point is that if you follow the Tylers articles on here recently, they have covered every eventuality, lift off, no lift off, lift off followed by QE, NIRP or whatever. It's easy to predict correctly when you cover every eventuality.
And far more important, the Tylers have kept completely silent on which way the market will react immediately after the FED announcement on Wednesday. Too risky to try and predict that one I guess because it would be a real......prediction.
Can the Fed predict, with any certainty, the near future? Seems they can’t, otherwise this article would be mute. Are they announcing their own incompetence, is it all du jour liftoff crap? If so, it is a mighty expensive unaudited operation that has cost savers and soon to be investors dearly and loaded the world with a massive debt bomb. Questions need asked to Janet Yellen about their abilities and uncertainties given what most here already know.
Any prediction made today is guesswork. More info will be revealed in the next two days. I'd keep my mouth shut, too.
Here's TD's prediction in a nutshell - The Fed may raise or not raise. Either way, rates will be back lower promptly, with more QE on the way.
To me, the raise not raise questions is just another opportunistic rape of the public that the Fed and friends can get away with on the way down. I mean, according to mobster mentality, why not?
Thanks for making my point.
You are probably right in what you said but unfortunately anything with the words "may or may not" in the sentence is not a prediction if an event will take place or not, neither Is the word "promptly" in predicting the timing of a subsequent event.
Now, if the Tylers clearly and succinctly stated that the FED WILL raise rates but by September 2016 they will reverse and announced NIRP, ***THAT*** would be a prediction.
Earn the right to claim "as we predicted" with accurate predictions, not ambiguous, both side of the fence bullshit.
Fuck yeah mother fucker!
Clusterfuck.
Don't worry, Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen have been working on that so far.
When i was 11 they fucked up my bowl cut too.
and here's the proof: http://bit.ly/1NkdHCm
and here's OhNo today: http://bit.ly/1OqCJx6
stanley fishcher will never go without blame........
these are the same fuckers that told wall st the it was ok too rate subprime paper AAA
''The Federal Reserve Board employs over 300 Ph.D. economists, who represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise. Board economists conduct cutting edge research, produce numerous working papers, and are among the leading contributors at professional meetings and in major journals. Our economists also produce a wide variety of economic analyses and forecasts for the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee.''
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/theeconomists.htm
Does anything bad happen to these pricks if they get blamed? The black hats at the big banks got blamed for all the TARP shit and I don't remember anything bad happening to them, aside from plenty of jokes and heckling.
Heckling really hurts their feelings. We don't do torture remember ?
I'm figuring maybe a one-line "I'm a little sorry" footnote in their memoirs and that's about it. I'm pretty sure that's all Greenspan did.
The Bernank is running free.
Thats right. We have plenty of safe space for pussies and bankers but if you are a branch davidian or live in Ruby Ridge you can eat a sniper round or two for breakfast. Or perhaps they deserve the treatment we give to babies in utero during an abortion. Anybody want to see yellen get cut up and vacuumed into a bio-waste disposal bag?
Just decorate your nearest lamppost with a swinging bankster.
In the interests of diversity I would throw in some statist politicians and bureaucrats too, don't want to leave anybody out!
And they fund economics 'research' everywhere, which is why there are few professional economists who doubt the idea that they can control the economy.
When economists are as accurate at any prediction as weathermen are on a 5-day forecast, it is time to pay attention.
Meanwhile, anyone who has investments in the markets affected by these crony-capitalist scams deserves the raping they are getting. Money in those markets is fuel for the kleptocracy.
Two mandates from Congress, employment/inflations and both reports are provided free from the gov? So why do they need to hire more than two people, part time?
Good call that would explain that weird speech she couldn't finish
It appeared she ate her lunch twice that day.
Seriously every time she opens her mouth she sounds like a stroke victim.
In mute nostril agony, carefully refined and sealed over!
Ukraine SITREP December 13th, 2015 by Scotthttp://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-december-13th-2015-by-scott/
"Men, the only thing we can cover this up with is a War. A big One."
JJD, you nailed it.
Then it wlll be wall-to-wall sympathy for Mr. Yellen, 60 Minutes, CNN, etc.
Was thinking today she should resign given an undisclosed illness (she has her cover established) and pass this shit show off to someone else. They will never take any responsibility and just escalate the speaking tours.
Hillary for FED chair!
Why not a real man for a change.
Yep, I'd say this pretty much puts an end to any talk of rate hikes.
This is all just so absurd, an idiotic bureaucracy attempting to 'fix' a problem that's funadmentally because of their own existance.
Too funny...and not the ha ha kind of funny..
I always think of a snake eating its own tail.
Rise those rates faggots. Damn the torpedoes. We won't accept another punt.
Or you'll do what. Stop buying groceries or anything priced in dollars? They have everyone who insists on continuing to use the dollar by the balls.
They do. So stop using it.
It's QE4 in a few months an it will be huge.
Expect double QE3
QE4 at least $170 billion/month.
They MUST keep QEing going!
You're assuming they ever stopped. They just stopped calling it QE. Cue reverse repo and it's much bigger than QE3
Jim Willie says Failure to deliver Treasuries is an ongoing, massive QE.
I will ROFL 24/7 when that happens and the markets tank anyway, because another QE will look like a capitulation.
Don't be fooled, they will raise rates and they will continue to raise them much faster than they're letting on...all they're trying to do is to TRY to prop up the markets with more jawboning in the face of a prescribed heading into the ABYSS...they have NO OTHER CHOICE
Huh?
You're silly.
So rates are transitory
This week will be known in history as the Hilsenrath rally.
too little, too late?
Peter Schiff for Treasury Secretary!
I guess he won't take over that shit ship.
Messenger Boy Johnny Ola gets it in the end. Expect a repeat here.
trav777
''The world is going to tire of usury as interest service strangles the life out of the real economy. I would not want to be a member of a group historically associated with banking and usury when that time comes.''
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimco-sees-uk-rating-downgrade-probabil...
It's not really usury or interest rates (originally in the Blble, usury just meant interest, not obscenely overcharged interest) that are the problem, it's really the continuous raping of the value of the dollar through inflation that's killing everything. The value of money should work for you and bring you something for it. Money is like renting a tool to do a job. But when the Federal government and the Fed renders the dollar to not being worth a shit, why would anyone want to pay intererest to borrow it? Your loan diminishes in value as you walk out the door with it.
Im gonna pretend I didnt read that.........
Interest takes money out of the flow of the system. If value was exchanged for value all through the equation (the economy) there would be balance. Interest makes it so that there has to be defaults because there is not enough money in the system to pay back the "value" of the loan and interest. These are the booms and busts. Printing happens to make dollars to fill the shortfall, but those dollars will buy less. Printing does prevent the bust part of the cycle in the first place. The "raping" of the value of the dollar via printing IS inflation which is a product of applying dollars to interest.
That is a bit over simplified, but I don't think it is too far off the mark.
Interest is a problem.
Meanwhile we are so far out of the ball park described here, with banks marking assets to model rather than market, and keeping losses hidden and the Fed printing money in exchange for treasuries, and the US gov goes deeper in debt (issuing the treasuries) to buy shit to prop up the war machine, the appearance of capitalism, and the economy, that we are beyond blaming interest anymore for the problem. The so called money is loaned for free, and the gambers/brokers/bankers take it into the casino (stock market) and park it in "investements" which serve to prop up the stock market.
This is why banks should not be trading.
They are lying, cheating, and stealing, outright, because people do not understand the system.
I could go on about fractional reserve lending, but I should stop.
Mechanically, a crash must happen to clear out all the malinvestment. They won't let it. So we crash harder, later. Or they engineer mini crashes and tell their friends so they can position themselves to profit.
The blind leading the clueless and making it up as they go. They'll never raise rates. Trapped like the rats they are.
So how many times can Lucy pull away the football before Charlie Brown gives up and refuses to play any more?
Or Charley beats the crap outta Lucy.
.... while screaming "Alluha Akbar!"
Six.
Until the idea stops making revenue, of course!
You get the clarity award.
Charlie Brown went to American public schools and his pacifier was a t.v. since he was three -
he'll never quit trying to kick that football
until it completely explodes, leaving a stupid clueless look on Charlie's face.
So true. Putting your kid in an American public school is like signing your kid up for a partial lobotomy.
Back at ZEROHEDGE. Always !!!
If I flinch any harder I'm pretty sure I'll get all froze like that. Is that possible?
lol at whoever thinks they will raise rates....you cannot taper a ponzi.
"The word is pyramid. We would have you say pyramid." - Michael Mohr*, Amway chief counsel, 1992
*apologies, originally misspelled the last name
Then how has the Fed ever in its history gotten away with raising rates? If it could do it before, but can't now, what's different about this time?
government debt is in excessof 60 trillion dollars.
Let's just check that historical record shall we? Volcker Shock, Black Friday, Peso Crisis, ...
Hey FreeS, what a great idea for a thesis!
So he's just said they'll do what a lot of us are already expecting: they raise them to preserve credibility, and then lower them to placate the markets.
Same as it ever was.
Very interesting take on the subject. Food for thought.
As you noted previously economics is all expectations and expections are based on confidence in the scheme.
I still say they will raise a quarter point with a big hedge statement, but they can't imply an immediate back track is possible or they look redokulous.
And as has been previously noted that they are even in this box a week before Christmas and the last shop weekend of the year is how far up the tree they are.
Which will only serve a further loss of credibility/CONfidence.
I am glad you posted that because if you read the comments above you, at least half of them have interpreted that as "lift off cancelled".
It's not, expect a 0.25 pt lift off on Wednesday and the DOW "paradoxically" shooting up 300 points with every main steam financial media idiot talking head explaining it as the market is up because the FED raise means the economy is getting stronger.
Now, THAT'S a prediction you can trade.
+ 100 - and that will be last plane out of Casablanca for inside flush guys.
Likewise it will the last boat leaving Dunkirk that retail investors watch sailing off into the mist.
at a certain point the unconventional becomes the new convention
Ten years of falling rates or zirp...
Counterfeiting and oppression are the new 'conventional'.
Hang the usurers that charge anything for 'credit' since it's all free and conjured out of fucking keystrokes the same way this post is.
Disenfranchise the parasites and cease the plundering of the productive class.
http://www.propertarianism.com
''Sing a Song of Sixpence
The smallest coin minted in England was the farthing...and on the reverse of the farthing coin is a wren. One farthing is one twenty-fourth part of sixpence…a little over four percent. You pay me back sixpence and a farthing for my sixpence loan. That farthing is the usury. Big time! [2]
The biggest usurers in medieval times were the Church and the Jews...to most people the words Jew and Usurer were synonymous. The clerks and agents and the priests dressed in black. Hence the blackbirds. And how strange that they should still be alive after an hour in the oven at 200 degrees Celsius. But this would have come as no surprise to an ancient Greek or Babylonian. Aristotle, who understood something of the nature of money, wrote:
'Usury is most reasonably hated because its gain comes from money itself and not from that for the sake of which money was invented. For money was brought into existence for the purpose of exchange, but interest increases the amount of the money itself and this is the actual origin of the Greek word: offspring resembles parent, and interest is money born of money; consequently this form of the business of getting wealth is of all forms the most contrary to nature.' Something dead becomes a living thing. No wonder it was ‘contra natura’.''
http://proverbs.blog.co.uk/2010/08/12/sing-a-song-of-sixpence-9171279/
Hike to cause the crash, unhike after, but the damage will be done. Anyone thinking they'll ramp the S&P to ATH's will be disappointed. This is the "FED screwed up and lost control" moment.
The real question will be the time between the hike and the cut back to zero.
1 month?
More like the speed of an HFT computer.
What? Where was the hike?
You did not see it? Look at the expanded time-base of this graph.
Oh, ok, 1 millisecond.
Wanna see it again?
:)
:)
In the interest of efficiency there will be a rate increase and an immediate announcement of QE4.
in other words, these secret cabalites need higher rates so they can lower them again.
I am still waiting for some disaster so the fed can have an excuse to hike, but the bottom line is, to keep playing their game, seeing how it is we could be at what some say peak debt, since the market is gonig to melt down anyway, might was well get in front of it so they can get some ammo to break the fall, in order that the prices do not break lower than the 2009 lows.
btw - no hike in Dec
The only question I have is when does this fucking joke end. It has gone beyond funny to banal. The US is finished as producer of anything other than war toys and heavily indebted consumers. Give it up. It's over.
We invented safe spaces.
The FED are masters of economic wizardry! So, oil prices crash. A lot of hi-end junk bonds in shale oil are in trouble, and the wizards did not see this coming? How did they think it would affect the Economy?
They need to read ZH.
They don't give a shit about the eCONomy, they just want the assets for free!
The Fed is the real Free Shit Army.
Yes, but when all you do is produce the toys of war, you can have whatever you want, can't you?
Jon Hilsenrath, like the Fed, is engaged in a lot of handwringing and anxiety over the prospect of the Fed raising rates. However, the Fed knew that starting down the rate normalization path wasn't going to be easy, so hard to see how much this really adds.
Enough mental masturbation. Everything will be fine once the process gets underway.
Did you mean: Like masturbation, "(e)verything will be fine once the process gets underway"?
If Jon Hilsenrath and the Fed is engaged in a lot of handwringing and anxiety, then that would mean that they actually believe all the numbers they spout. They produce nothing but bullshit and their job is to implement that bullshit to the pleasure of their NWO masters. They are doing a great job on that account and the Country sits just where and how they want it.
AmerikanPatriot...
You are no patriot. Your professed love for the system demonstrates your own personal corrupt and immoral spirit.
I do hope that they raise rates and ignite a collapse of a multitude of Sovereign Nations that no amount of QE can bail out.
There are $600 Trillion Dollars of DERIVATIVES which are tied to the US Ten Year Bond.
But you have no idea about what that means. I do not think that you can conceptualize what $600 Trillion Dollars is. You are that fucking INNUMERATE. Prove me wrong...for a change.
If I took $600 Trillion, and evenly dispersed it to 300 Million Americans, Just how much would one of those people receive?
If you had that much money, what does a 25 basis point loss amount to?
Since you do not have that type of money, can you personally afford such a loss today?
Because that is what it is going to cost each and everyone of us, on average, in the long run in terms of higher prices....PER YEAR AND EVERY YEAR. The corporations with the money will just pass on the expenses to the consumer. And the consumer is already tapped out AND PAYING INTEREST ON THEIR OWN DEBT.
And when we cannot cover it, because we cannot just roll it over. then we, as a people, FAIL.
You blindly place your faith and confidence in those who seek to destroy you.
And you have called yourself a Patriot when it is apparent, with what you have posted with all of your many different usernames, that you are just a lying shill.
"If I took $600 Trillion, and evenly dispersed it to 300 Million Americans, Just how much would one of those people receive?" $2 Million per, I believe....
Are you sure?
But BEFORE YOU ANSWER...are you AmerikanPatriot?
The question was addressed to him, and him alone.
Now be a sport and do not answer the questions as he is just too damned fucking stupid to compute them.
That is just to manipulate the market up on Monday.
No fucking shit. Schiff explains it perfectly.
You're gonna get maybe a 1/4 point pop... then shit goes back into the loo...and it's QE V , VI, VII with Zeeeeero % rates again.
LOL
"Its decision to keep rates so low for so long was likely a factor that helped the economy grow enough to bring the jobless rate down to 5% last month from a recent peak of 10% in 2009."
The unemployment number is phony to begin with.
All their numbers are phoney to begin with.
The only thing that isn't phoney from them is what they say are phoney. The Protocols!
Lets see.....Uncle Sams politicians have promised 200 Trillion + in vote buying goodies.......They are currently admitting an 18.5 trillion dollar debt, that excludes social security expenditures....This doesn`t include The trillions in state and local government debt, that is not mentioned like a black sheep family member....
And the FED is going to raise the interest cost on all of that........LMAO!.....
Yeah, it's actually worse than that. The real debt is now over 20 Trillion and the real money supply is north of 6 Trillion.
"Mr Yellin today raised rates 1/10 of one basis point."
"The economy is doing well, said Mr Yellin."
All these asshats who make a living prognosticating what the FED will or won't do use make believe numbers provided by asshats who make it up as they go along.
Its all bullshit and everyone with an IQ of 80 knows it. Never has one quarter of one percent meant so much and so little at the same time.
" Never has one quarter of one percent meant so much and so little at the same time." ---- exactly what my girlfriend told me last night
Obviously you should be going out with an economist. You could doubly seasonally adjust the size of your Johnson and she'd believe it.
In the long run the johnson follows a deflationary metric.
So are you telling me that America has lost its stiffy?
We need some of that Economic Viagra...fast.
America, because of aging, has got a bad dose of that ED.
Bob Dole warned us about that.
This is ridiculous!
There's been a 60% decrease in the price of oil in the past year. The massive economies of Europe, China, and the U.S. consume way more oil than they produce. Oil is their economies' lifeblood. Their collective economies should be roaring with prosperity.
Instead, everyone's holding their breath about the consequences of a potential 0.25% increase in the U.S. Federal Funds Rate because everything's so "fragile".
The Financial world has taken over the Real world. Things really ARE different this time, due to the relentless financialization and leveraging of everything on the planet.
Indeed.
And the dollar is up 25% in one year time! That should scream a crisis for it's exports also. And indeed... that 0,25% seems to be pandora's box...
Foreign economies feed off of US consumerism, with oil/commodities dropping the demand for US treasuries drops considerably. If the Fed raises rates while demand drops the US bond market will continue to force rates up. With higher rates comes lower US consumerism, and foreign markets get crushed, especially those markets holding USTs, a very nasty loop indeed.
The Fed will be forced to QE and or a rate cut, only to buy more time, before an even bigger collapse.
"Here is the bigger problem: what the Fed has done - which is very little for the actual economy - is to push the S&P from 666 to 2100. It is the undoing of that most market participants are terrified about, and what will be to most, very unpleasant."
THE biggest problem is that a cycle has a down phase. There is no avoiding the undoing at some point.
ZIRP and quantitative easing, the ultimate opiates.
Until a currency crisis.
trav777
'The dollar is a CLAIM on our future! It represents by its existence a claim upon our future, that we must be bigger then than now. At whatever point we cannot grow further, the dollar collapses.
And the economy is the thing that must grow for the creditdollar to survive'
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-preparing-qe-20-mbs-only-edition#co...
Correct. And we are at that point.
I miss Trav777 giving me the finger !!!!
Despite Bernanke being an illiterate economic fool, like all Central Bankers, one statement that he did make will be proven to be correct in the coming years.
"No Rate Normalization During My Lifetime"Is anyone surprised? Yellen already admitted that they would not raise rates if the markets get volatile . . . Well Mr. Market was listening and will supply all the volatility needed to keep Yellen in her cage. The Feds next move is more likely NIRP . . .
Wall Street has a fit every time a rate increase is mentioned and the date comes close
Peter schiff was right again. Fed won't raise rates until forced.
It's 0% or negative rates until a currency crisis
The US dollar should start to fall.
William Dudley's knob polisher, Hilsenrath, delivers the Fed's news again.
The bond market will collapse here folks, if they don't raise rates, if they do the equity market will collapse, then the bond market. Either way the Fed is now left with the conudrum, do I save the Equity markets, or better said buy more time, or buy more time for the bond market?
So when you consider that the death of the bond market is far more devestating than the equity market, what is the Fed to do?
Still a toss up in my books, it depends on where the Banks are positioned, and no one knows that for sure.
If these predictions come true, and I believe that they will, then treasuries are going to SOAR and offer HUGE profits in addition to paying interest while holding them - AGAIN.
Last Fri on the panic flight to treasuries I sold my treasury portfolio at a profit large enough to pay all of my routine living expenses for 2016.
Now I am all cash waiting for the turmoil of the rate hike announcement, especially language about expected path of future hikes, and when treasuries sell off, I will buy in again to reposition for the inevitable market dives that will result in yet another flight to treasuries and yet more BIG profits for me.
I used to hate the sociopathic hyper-destructive central bankers for all the damage that they have done, including to my previously good stable predictable interest income, then I finally realized that the roller-coaster cycles that they create in markets is an opportunity for me to earn income, so it is a matter of improvise, adapt and overcome, and KA-CHING! the cash register on every insane cycle of manipulation.
"If these predictions come true, and I believe that they will, then treasuries are going to SOAR and offer HUGE profits in addition to paying interest while holding them - AGAIN."
Can't have both.