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"Stick With The Bull" Indeed: 10 Out Of 10 Barrons "Experts" Again Predict The S&P Will Rise 10% In 2016
One year ago, as part of its one-year forward forecast issue, the ten "experts" polled by Barrons in its one year forward forecast, predicted that the S&P would close at an average of 2209.
Instead, with just 13 trading days to go in the year, the S&P is down just over 2% for the year.
No wonder the name of that particular Barron's article was "Stick With the Bull", although we doubt Barrons meant it in the more accurate in retrospect, "secondary" meaning of the phrase.
Fast forward to this weekend, when the same ten experts unanimously agree that while they may all have been wrong about 2015 (barring some last minute miracle in which the S&P soars by 200 points in the next two weeks), it is only far to double down on 2016, and they all expect the S&P500 to not only rise, but do so with style, hitting an average of 2220 on December 31, 2016 (at least there was no reference to male bovine excrement in this year's title which was the far more muted "Stocks Have Room to Rise 10% in 2016, Market Strategists Say")
This is what Barron's says:
Based on their mean forecast, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index will end next year at 2220, an increase of 10% from Friday’s close of 2012. An advance of that magnitude is more reflective of the market’s rout last week, however, than undue exuberance among our prognosticators. To the contrary, the strategists were more cautious in their comments than in recent years past.
Actually, not really: only two "strategists" lowered their year end target for 2016 compared to 2015, as just Adam Parker and Dubravko Lakos-Bujas now see a "more cautious" 2016 (cutting their forecasts from 2275 to 2175 and 2250 to 2200, respectively). At the same time Chris Auth, eager to overcompensate for being wrong, has taken his year end forecast from 2350 to 2500, while Glionna and Koesterich both expect the S&P to be higher than their expectations for 2015. 5 "experts" are unchanged in their forecasts from a year ago.
however, not even Barrons' can avoid to be sarcastic with the panel's performance:
Any advance would be superior to this year’s 2.3% loss (through Dec. 11). A year ago, the pros predicted stocks would rally 10% in 2015; that target seems far-fetched today, with just 13 trading days left in the year.
There is more in the forecast but it is all very much worthless, because far from actually attempting to predict the future correctly, what these "prediction calls" are merely an exercise in setting the echo chamber, and making sure that everyone is on the same page. After all if everyone is wrong, it is the same as if nobody is wrong: just one outlier would make the entire panel of "experts" look idiotic.
And speaking of idiotic forecasts, we can't help but laugh at Barron's 2007 year end prediction "A Bullish Call" laying out where all these same (and some different) "experts" predicted the market would close.
Come to think of it, back then both Lehman's Ian Scott and Bear's Jonathan Golub were both really bullish. We wonder why they no longer grace Barron's "expert" roundtable?
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Shoeshine boy moment...
Consistency: 10 Out Of 10 "Experts" predict (the same thing)
Welcome to Zero Hedge.
Where did they find all the Captagon?
Escravita
ZH members are far more diverse in their opinions that these 10 in this weekend's Barron's.
Makes me want to look at my gold pile or reach for my pistol...
Wrong priority. Go for the pistol first. Worry about everything else later on.
Is there anything more useless than a market prediction longer than a week?
They could be correct...if the market dumps by the necessary 40% plus in 2015.
nah... no niggers up there...
Third Avenue Mangaement CEO's reward for 24 years of service:
The Wall Street Journal an hour ago: "Third Avenue Management LLC has parted ways with Chief Executive David Barse, said people familiar with the matter, a move that follows the firm’s shock decision to bar withdrawals from a junk-bond fund.
A security guard at the firm’s New York headquarters said Sunday that Mr. Barse had been let go and isn’t allowed back in the building."
How many other CEOs will get the Barse treatment in 2016?
It will!
And.... DOW 36,000!
Unfortunately they're still not wrong for 2015 / s
Hang them all.
Who the hell can argue with....Dubravko BAKO-BUJAS?
BTFD!
where are da knee-grows?
i don't know what looks more insane: Auth's face or that 2500 prediction.
Well, if Yellen imposes negative interest rates it might work.
Only 3 or 4 with any age to 'em. Total fade.
So which one will be the first Lemming over the cliff ???
The nights of Pamplona on a bull run are awesome eerie fun for those who like to see a rampage that is not leveraged.
The bulls of Wall street unlike the bulls of Pamplona are leveraged 1 million to one.
There lies the awesome difference !
Between popular culture and imperial arrogance based on delusion of stratospheric magnitude.
Whom the Gods wish to destroy...
I'll stick with the Bullshit instead.
They make money selling stocks. When the markets go down bigtime, nobody buys and they can't collect their fees.
Why would they be bearish?
It's the same when a stock advisor sells you anything, the only thing on his mind is the fees he'll get for selling you whatever.
And for example in 2008, they didn't even pick up their phone.
Absolutely correct. No different than a car salesman. Never did like them; something deep inside knew they couldn't be trusted.
But...but...they all look so 'smart'. Kiss my ass bitchez!
But stawks, because if you don't we're all out of a job.
Let us know when they're personally and professionally going to have the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads for their calls. Until then they're just licensed unaccountable puppets for the muppets serving the criminals controlling the fake and scripted markets.
In all likelihood, equities will continue to rise in 2016 and gold will continue to fall. Everyone understands this except for low-information Zero Hedgers, who, following the site's advice for the past 4-5 years, have consistently invested in a losing proposition, whilst warning that higher metal prices were "just around the corner."
Yes, Zeroes as a lot will get poorer in dollar terms, but they've made this sacrifice to enrich the rest of us. And for that I thank them.
Spoken like a card-carring member of the Pinko Fascist Commies. If you're not part of the solution; you're part of the problem. Which are you?
All I want to hear is Gartman and Cramer, screw these nobodies!
Every face is target practice.
The types who'd hurry to buy Rayban shares on the news that nuclear tipped ICBMs were on their way and congratulate themselves on thinking outside the box.
The U.S. FIAT DEBT stands today at $166 TRILLION FIAT DOLLARS.
WWW.USDEBTCLOCK.ORG U.S. TOTAL DEBT + U.S. UNFUNDED LIABILITIES I.E YOUR FRICKEN SOCIAL SECURITY CHECKS!!!
10 out of 10 Libertarian PM Experts predict PM to rise, and urge to BTFD.
Well that tell me time to start DUMPING, the toilet and Flushing....thru these Anals
These guys paychecks depend on the bookies at the exchanges getting orders.......Pump and Dump is a bonified marketing technique.....Besides , wouldn`t your conscience bother you, if they lept from the 50th floor, because you sat on the sidelines?.....
10 overpaid cheerleaders each predicting 10% up, equals 100%, wrong.
10 Paid shills for the Giverment. The part of the regular MSM interview team... Maybe they can through Algos, fake stats, and unpublicized intervention keep it nose up for another year..... The sheep are starting to awaken ever so slowly though.
Oooo. This one's EASY. Do they have someting to gain, or something to lose, pushing their points of view?
What do Michael Hartnett and Louise Yamada say?
There apparently will be ongoing money printing because there are no fundamentals to suguest any increase, rather a 50% decrease is what the economic data suguests should happen.
Agree. If the QE bullshit starts again, I am "all in".
Magic 8 Ball sez: pay me to tell you what you wanna hear.
I'm Henry the 8th I am. Henry the 8th I am, I am.
These analysts are as useful as tits on Hilary Clinton or Janet Yellen
As a rule, a Zero is a sad sack loser who's been long gold for years...and suffered year after year of losses.
Going Postal is about to be replaced by Going Zero, as frustrated folks here are just looking to throttle the first thing that moves.
If you can't do any better than that, please go somewhere else
Ah. You've revealed yourself. You're obviously part of the problem. Now grow a pair and wake up, fool.
Who pays them? Who listens? Why?
Professional stock pickers have nothing special to offer. Studies have shown that every year, a majority of mutual funds--sometimes up to 70 percent--underperform the SP500 Index.
So called "experts" in human affairs are passing off an intellectual hoax. Another example is psychology. Again, studies have shown that talk therapy from licensed psychologists is no more effective that talk therapy from the minimally trained. Academic "experts" in political affairs are likewise bogus. For example, many Sovietologists back in the 1980s did not predict that the collapse of the Soviet Union. Another example: op-ed writers and think tankers push for war, and in no way foresaw the consequences (such as the emergence of ISIS).
David Kostin is GS's Chief Economist- his craptacular call for everyone to put all into Energy for 2015 was so bad you wonder if GS had the other side of that trade?
Barron's "experts" know who butters their bread.
Its like I commented a few days ago on an article that mentioned how Barron's Roundtable let go of a bear (forget the name, sorry) because he was just to 'bearish'. Barron's represents the Status Quo, and, as such, is aiding and abetting TPTB in the destruction of this nation. Anyone who perceive's these shills as anything more than boot-licking lackeys with 'zero' integrity are no more themselves...