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The Market Has Just Gone Nuts
Presented with little comment, aside to ask: "where are the liquidity-providers?"
Extremely heavy volume... and wild swings
Zoomed in the moves actually occurred over a 5 minute span... (via @NanexLLC )
And it appears all about algos playing The VIX ETFs... (though we already know that VIX manipulation runs the entire market)
420 Point roundtrip in The Dow in under 9 minutes...
As HYG hit Friday's lows...
And all of this is happening right on cue following JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warnings of "massive stop losses" ahead..
Not surprisingly, the biggest potential selloff catalyst is the Fed itself and specifically the Dec. 16 FOMC announcement, which the Fed is desperate to guide as being "priced in" by the market, but considering the Fed's track record with getting any forecast right, concerns are starting to grow. "As for near-term risks—we believe the most imminent market catalyst will be the December Fed meeting in which we are likely to see the first rate hike of the cycle."
* * *
So far so good, but to a market which has traded mostly on technicals and program buying (and selling) in recent months, there is something far more troubling than just what the Fed will announce:
This important event falls at a peculiar time—less than 48 hours before the largest option expiry in many years. There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market.
What does this mean? Considering that the bulk of the puts have been layered by the program traders themselves, including CTA trend-followers, and since the vol surface of the market will be well-known to everyone in advance, there is a very high probability the implied "stop loss" level will be triggered, and the market could trade to a level equivalent to the strike price, somewhere in the 1,800 area, or nearly 200 points below current levels.
Which would be a tragedy for the Fed: after all, nothing is more important to Yellen, Draghi et al, than affirmative market signaling - pointing to the (surging) market's reaction and saying "look, we did the right thing", just as Draghi did on Friday when he explicitly talked the market higher in the aftermath of the ECB's disastrous announcement.
The irony will be if, regardless of what the Fed does, the subsequent move is driven not by the market's read through of monetary policy but by the "pin" in this massive $1.1 trillion option expiry, the biggest in many years, one which if recent market action is an indicator, suggests the stop loss strike level will be taken out in the process setting the "psychological" stage for market participants who will look at the drop in the market, and equate it with a vote of no confidence in what the Fed is doing, potentially forcing the Fed to backtrack in less than 2 days!
Whether this happens remains to be seen, and we are confident the Fed's "arm's length" market-moving JV partner, Citadel, is currently scrambling to prevent any imminent selloff. However, considering Kolanovic' track record of hinting at key risk inflection risk, it is quite likely that whatever the ultimate closing price on December 16 and, more importantly, December 18, volatility may very soon have an "August 24" type event.
* * *
Something has broken.
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Gold still solidly in the red - all is good
Simon Potter, please adjust the sensitivity of 33 Liberty's joy sticks. You're making the passengers sick.
Simon: "Wait till I get get circumsized."
“It’s a feature, not a bug.” -- Citadel
hft's to the rescue!
Don't worry!
Tyler is just feeling a tad miserable to-day...
Time to tell the world who has been pan-handling all of ISIS oil
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/oil-price-drop-allowed-t...
Off topic, but interesting:
"Zero Hedge's infamous Tyler Durden has provided us with a fact sheet on high treason."
"Tyler Durden, who probably really is Daniel Ivandjiiski..."
http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20151207/1031363406/us-russia-terrorism....
I wonder how many thousands of stops were triggered and billions of dollars of profit that sweet maneuver produced.
Paper promises backed by bullshit.
This is purely for our amusement so enjoy brothers and sisters, for tomorrow we will must amuse ourselves.
This is oh so 2008.
Oh oh, somebody just got outed...again.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/who-is-tyler-durden_21.html
No hedging your bets now! :)
of course it's only the guys at the Fed and their buddies who know already what will happen on Wednesday...
Thanks for the link. I haven't really spent any time thinking about who 'Tyler' is as I judge ZH by its content and quality of the articles and analysis. I did note that when I registered (Sept 2010) that it was one of the few sites that didn't suppress controversial comments on things like 9/11. Journalism, properly defined, requires courage and ZH does journalism.
ZH is at least closer to a functioning free press than what the MFM in any media format spews, of that there can be no debate!
ig & kralizec, i've been anticipating, as i'm sure have you & others, that as the tylers continue to dig & present what's going on geopolitically & financially that they will begin to feel the displeasure & pressure of those with the most to lose. what i admire about the tylers is that they appear to be as committed to truth & unravelling the great lies as many posters: paveway, j burton, WC, just observing to name but a few. we are witnessing a huge game, i think one of the greatest, & with truth & courage we may be able to free ourselves of the infamous PTB. some wags over the weekend posted their disapproval of the tylers' pointing out their prowess (yet consider, if they don't how much easier it should be for the threatened to rewrite facts---the tylers understand media, memory & history much better than most (thank god!)). high 5, tylers, for continuing to point out the lies, the money trail, & to shine light upon the deception. you are singularly doing a benchmark job.
Good thoughts. Human nature being what it is there will inevitably be some form of the "PTB", but hopefully we roll back some of the worst excesses and soften the edges in these perilous and dangerous tech-powered times.
Oh jeez, not this shit again.
We are all Tyler Durden.
Remember when Chilton said HFT's would become more active as volumes/vol grows ? Remember when CS argued that darkpools + rebates will improve market transparency and prevent price spikes (up & down) from damaging investor confidence? lol.
Trump's got this. http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/11/trump-vows-to-end-chinas-currency-ma...
> Sheer ignorance
> Pandering to the 'base'
I'd say neither. the linked article talks about Trump's policy paper calling for the US Treasury to "brand" China a "currency manipulator"
now, independently from what you think about that issue, this was a policy option that was discussed in all earnest, not that long ago
it used to be the standard approach... until someone the size and importance of China did it
By the way, for the benefit of those bereft a classical education, the post above 'neither' is a good illustration of the Hegelian dialectic in all it's dishonest glory.
Be alert. Don't get sucked in.
Countries have been throwing off dollars for years; since at least 2008. Nobody wants to be left standing with the bad currency when it dies, including China. I hate to say it but the end is nearing for the U.S. dollar's world reserve currency status. The United States has been poking sticks at the BRICS nations for years in order to hold on to world reserve currency status. If Trump doesn't understand this concept, all he is doing is adding gas to the flames. It's not just China. Countries such as Australia stopped trading with China in dollars. Russia and China trade outside the dollar. India and China started trading gold for oil with Iran bypassing U.S. sanctions. No one wants to hold the dollars because the Federal Reserve Central Bank kicked the can down the road in 2008/09 for the economy's "correction." Because they put it off thinking money-printing and our govt bailing out failing businesses (which should've failed), the "correction" is going to be exponentially worse. The money-printing will eventually kill the currency and will end in hyperinflation (John Williams, Austrian theory economist, shadowstats.com). The reason Williams believes it will be hyperinflation is because not only do we have massive amounts of dollars circulating, the world is dumping dollars and those dollars are going to return. Dr. Ron Paul tried to sound the warning on this decades in advance. He said the markets are always stronger than the manipulation. President Calvin Coolidge kept his hands off the depression of 1920/21. He allowed the "correction" in the economy. The depression was severe but lasted only about a year. Whereas, Presidents Hoover and FDR interfered in the correction after 1929 and made it much more severe, lasting over 10 years and making it "great". Just seems the lessons of history bypass peoples' memories. Unfortunately, this time we've all been put through a rather unbelievable experiment by the Fed. I hope Trump understands this because trying to stop the "correction" or fighting China/Russia over the use of the U.S. dollar is going to be disastrous.
Countries have been throwing off dollars for years; since at least 2008. Nobody wants to be left standing with the bad currency when it dies, including China. I hate to say it but the end is nearing for the U.S. dollar's world reserve currency status. The United States has been poking sticks at the BRICS nations for years in order to hold on to world reserve currency status. If Trump doesn't understand this concept, all he is doing is adding gas to the flames. It's not just China. Countries such as Australia stopped trading with China in dollars. Russia and China trade outside the dollar. India and China started trading gold for oil with Iran bypassing U.S. sanctions. No one wants to hold the dollars because the Federal Reserve Central Bank kicked the can down the road in 2008/09 for the economy's "correction." Because they put it off thinking money-printing and our govt bailing out failing businesses (which should've failed), the "correction" is going to be exponentially worse. The money-printing will eventually kill the currency and will end in hyperinflation (John Williams, Austrian theory economist, shadowstats.com). The reason Williams believes it will be hyperinflation is because not only do we have massive amounts of dollars circulating, the world is dumping dollars and those dollars are going to return. Dr. Ron Paul tried to sound the warning on this decades in advance. He said the markets are always stronger than the manipulation. President Calvin Coolidge kept his hands off the depression of 1920/21. He allowed the "correction" in the economy. The depression was severe but lasted only about a year. Whereas, Presidents Hoover and FDR interfered in the correction after 1929 and made it much more severe, lasting over 10 years and making it "great". Just seems the lessons of history bypass peoples' memories. Unfortunately, this time we've all been put through a rather unbelievable experiment by the Fed. I hope Trump understands this because trying to stop the "correction" or fighting China/Russia over the use of the U.S. dollar is going to be disastrous.
We're on the roller coaster from hell getting ready to hit the fun part.....
we have gone up the hill the last 8 years, i cant wait for the WHEEEEEE moment we are in store for.
This is Yellen with a hangover. This is fucking lunatic.
Nothing a little super glue (Fed QE) won't fix.
Super glue...? More like Loctite Pro Line 3X...
I'm a liquidity provider--I just don't want to buy crap!
The only liquidity I'm willing to provide is the neighbors' horse piss. Free collection services if I can personally deliver it to Yellen.
You didn't make that piss?
<insert mandatory sex related remark>
Here comes the money on the sidelines!
"We made a bet. One dollar. Here ya go Billy Ray."
Flash smash! What are they testing now?
If this was rust or blood stains on Janet's underwear.
Anyone see any Russian Radar Jamming planes
?
Preview of Santa OPEX Shitstorm.
one would hope it s finally the black swan taking off...
Extending and flapping its wings a few times. Preparing for its own 'liftoff.'
Holy crap that was weird. Never seen anything like this. That was INSANE.
All done with 6 ES minis. 3 bought, 3 sold. /sarc
Very dangerous place to be playing, better to watch.
100%
These girations look as if there's a massive portfolio exchange going on and the buyer of last resort is stepping up to the plate. They can't do it outside of market hours. We all get to sit back, relax and watch the transfer.
Fed needs to buy the equities or the dream of raising rates won't work. Fed has unlimited fire power.
The FED cannot create that type of liquidity without selling off assets from their balance sheet or loaning it to large institutions, if not Governments.
Or can they???
You know...Maybe they are running on two sets of books?
There you go using that word "market" again.
What would be a better word to use that truly described it?
I've read ZH users say 'casino', but I don't think that does it justice. Casinos don't lie about what they are.
A Bucket Shop in a Ponzi Scam?
A hot summer night in New Orleans.
"Mock-it."
What be they mocking? Real markets with price discovery and such, of course.
p.s. MsCreant - a ponzi within a ponzi, inside a scam, wrapped in another scam, double-stuffed in a farce, and coated with unicorn skittleshit.
20 ES point range pre-market... this is what healthy markets used to look like. volatility = opportunity.
aka U.N. Contract #4 Derivatives ..
Amb. Wanta explains ..
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp
Go to 3rd interview with Wanta Dec 19 2014.mp3
Begin around the 18:00 mark ..
Enigma? Enema?
A Rendering Plant.
The Rackets?
Yeah...That is it.
"I took out my money from the Stawk Rackets and the IRS thugs are now strong arming me fer their slice."
FUCKING CASINO UNTIL THESE BASTARDS ARE FUMIGATED !
Rumor has it that Yellen has locked herself in the control room at the Fed and she's just running around clicking on all the keyboards she can find. Weird I know. Yikes!
Related to weird reshuffling going on in SPY options.
Volotility increases before the crash
especially when misspelled
Extra unstable...
My predicition is that the FED will raise and then do something else at the same time to offset the impact of the hike.
Um...like what?
Bring in China's PPT?
"off balance sheet QE" or basically more defense/terror spending...
PPT being put to the test.
they'll need a Spike Protection Team soon too with this volatility.
If I had a monkey hammer,
I'd hammer in the morning,
I'd hammer in the evening,
All over this land,
I'd hammer out danger,
I'd hammer out a warning,
I'd hammer out .Gov between,
My brothers and my sisters,
All over this land.
SPT
Just the bankers sending Jannet a message to not raise rates.
Ja ever notice they always choose Fed chairs that dont have any real ka-hoonas
Karma's a bitch. So is hysteresis.
Jesus is a real drag when you meet Him face to face and he announces to you "DEPART FROM ME I NEVER KNEW YOU".
That's funny as it is the exact same thing I say when a bearded man comes to me with open palm.
These markets are chopping around like a bunch of hatchet wielding midgets on crack locked in a dark closet.
S&P 500 VIX 25.29 +0.90 +3.69%VIX is the bronco to ride if you have the balls.
Even if you don't get thrown and trampled your gonna need a fist full of painkillers and a bottle.
LOL
Only bankers can say with a straught face that they are providing liquidity while taking money out of the system.(They are booking profits from HFTs arent they?)
Putin did it
No liquidity, If I remember all I have read since 2008 about 2008.
Now, consider Schiff being told "we'll kill the dollar."
They knew it would rise.
Perhaps the purported rate hike is the det cord.
“which way did he go George…. which way did he go?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs-Q0JmWjj0
Etch o scetch
Any adults left
Any adults left who can spell?
nun undre thurti thets fer shur
Considering we all watched Yellen crap her own pants while publicly giving a speech a few months back, I am surprised by nothing.
Buy stock in Nestle, a new batch is forthcoming!
+1
So she has Alzheimer's and she's incontinent?
A 420 round trip.... ok this is like the "666" sells on AAPL or some other dow stawk.... Effing stoners and there HFT super colliders...man
Metal filings from USS Milwaukee finding their way into algo computers, too.
That would explain the grinding noise.
oh, i thought that was hillary and humus, err. huma
Sounds like you have a bad sense of Huma.
Just means they are taking out the stops above the market before they take it lower. Stops are for suckers.
They sure were for me, until I quit playing.
The liquidity injection is courtsey of www.peternorth.com
I thought that those evil HFT's were supposed to provide liquidity...so we were told.
S/
Good for the trading fee.
Quick
Cover your eyes with some Krugerands
You don't want to see what comes next
Speed wobble? Or did another war start somewhere?
Sorry, but I have to re-post this highly relevant article.
Guangshen Railway & China Eastern Airlines (ADR's) up on "heavy volume"...dry hump it baby!...lmao!!!
Oh, I thought I googled a roller coaster accident video.
420 Point roundtrip in The Dow in under 9 minutes...
Ho Lee Phuk
Sum Ting Wong
Ho Lee Fuk. That never gets old.
Actually, it does.
For 3 or 4 asian readers it does
HFT = Hells Fucking Trades...Yes
If they had had one of those nifty neodymium magnet dealies on the oil drain plug, this shit would have never happened... Then again, there probably wasn't any Slick-50 in the crankcase either...
Or samarium cobalt.
Where are the liquidity providers? Napping at Bellagio piled high with hookers and blow.
As predicted the printed up money aka the FED is trying to put a positive spin on the rate hike by preloading the market for the rate hike event on the day after tomorrow.
Hence the attack on Gold: Gold futures fall to a more than one-week low http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-drop-as-market-tenses-up-ahead-of-fed-meeting-2015-12-14
The liquidity providers are the US taxpayers
Private profits and socialized losses, name of the game.
All fixed
Someone was just running a power saw on the same line as the servers
They're boarding up the windows
Be calm people and heed these words of advice:
When in trouble when in doubt
Run in circles scream and shout
Hide the children kill the pig
Grab a shovel we have to dig
start using prepped food supply
leftovers
what will i be doing by Friday?
If you don't buy these fucking wild dips you are an idiot. This mother fucker is going to the moon.....make no mistake about it.....there will be Champaign Corks popping on New Year's Eve across the Hamptons.
Deer hunting for freezer meet this afternoon. Last field of corn where I hunt finally combined and should knock down plenty on the ground. It will bring the deer from all over.
I liken it to everyone heading to the grocery store when the power goes out. Last minute prep for winter storm. Ha. It will however be odd to be hunting in Illinois in December in the mid 50s.
These is a winter coming to our country. It will be gradual at first, then suddenly. We are somewhere on that gradual timeline. Your neighbors will be much more important to you when the suddenly comes than your banker or broker. Hold on tight people. We are in for quite a ride .
Deer fed on GMO corn? Egads..
I get mine from the tops of mountains..
No farming anywhere in sight..
Yum
Hey fvk you! Down arrow me for telling the truth.
More than 90 percent of all soybeans grown in the United States are genetically modified (GM) for herbicide resistance and are consequently sprayed with massive quantities of those toxic chemicals. Fully 85 percent of all corn grown in the country is also genetically engineered, either for herbicide resistance or to produce pesticides within its tissues. Since farmers sell their corn and soy to large distributors who mix the product together for processing, this essentially means that 100 percent of non-organic corn and soy products on the US market are GM.
And since soy and corn derivatives are so ubiquitous in packaged food, the Grocery Manufacturers of America has estimated that as much as 80 percent of processed food on US shelves contains GM ingredients. This includes breakfast cereals and other products labeled "natural" or "all natural." (http://www.naturalnews.com/033838_breakfast_...)
GM crops are simply unsafe. They expose people to novel and potentially dangerous allergens and to higher levels of pesticides. Animals grazing on GM crops have died from ruptured internal organs. Yet this is the type of food making up 80 percent of packaged food today, and the only way to avoid it is to buy organic food or grow your own.
So drink more high fruitcose corn syrup and pig out on that corn fed tissue. Idiots.
By 2012, 88 percent of corn (maize) and 94 percent of soy grown in the United States were genetically modifiedRead more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-06-gmo-corn-soybeans-dominate.html#jCp By 2012, 88 percent of corn (maize) and 94 percent of soy grown in the United States were genetically modified, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-06-gmo-corn-soybeans-dominate.html#jCp
As goes GM, so goes the Cuntry.
They are just tuning the algos relax....there will be a few more before they start the face melting short squeeze..... or perhaps in my wet dreams the stop loss selling program.
The algos are becoming self aware; and boy are they pissed!
The scenario where computers become self-aware and begin evolving themselves at super-human speeds is sometimes referred to as “the singularity”, a term also used by Professor Hawking in his work on Black Holes and the Big Bang.
My wet dreams never involve stop losses. Just sayin!!!
The front running leak will payoff handsomely.
The Fed's Plunge Protection Team are the ones doing the buying to try and prop up this market.
Audit the Fed !!!
Yeah they are. This mystery buyer keeps coming after the market keeps falling off these mini cliffs. Like a guy running down mt. Everest in spring shoes.
Haha! Simile Of The Day.
Never Sell A Quiet Market After A Rise - is still in effect. And this is not a quiet market...
Kirk to Scotty: We need moar Scotty.
Scotty to Kirk: Cap'n, I'm givin' her all she's got.
Relax they will increase the size of the pulse they send into the markets... they want to light off a short squeeze, didnt put enough into the first shot.
Deer MEET? WTF? I've got my freezer stacked with 100% Angus Corn Fed Beef. Actually, I could have bought another whole beef for the price of my Mission 420fps Crossbow for Deer Hunting....I do like summer sausage.....and crackers. If I were an intruder, I'd rather get plugged between the eyes with a 9mm as opposed to a retractable broadhead through the lungs.
Dear Meat....I really love that stuff.....Hot and pink.
100% Angus GMO Corn Fed Beef.
Donald, you are a dumb fuck. Enjoy your tumors.
Angus are a great breed to convert grass to meat...The Scots were poor and cheap, so they bred angus to do the job for them. Angus get too fat on corn and the butchers just cut it off and throw it away...they still charge you for it though.
Cornfed isn't exactly true, as we feed our hay and they graze all summer.....we just finish them off with corn which eliminates any need of a Stihl chainsaw at the dinner table.
A little grain is all right...I'm not a purist. But to be honest, they have plenty of marbling on grass...that's what makes the flavour and tenderness. I got back a Holstein steer on Friday, fed only grass hay...the hamburger was a little too fat.
Yellow marbling.. you can keep it.
YUCK
do to the feral reserve over printing, there was a shortage of e's and he had to substitute an a.
Que Cramer in 3..2...1.... "All they have to do to stop this is say they aren't raising rates, please help us." Suzy Orman will be out with a statement about how the fed should never raise rates while at the same time telling a caller that they shouldn't hold debt, but suzy is busy at the moment wiping her partners ass with her tongue, be out in a minute.
Waiting for the big false flag that will allow the Fed to skate on the rate increase.
Just like your first fuck today - in, out, repeat if necessary. I think ZH has desensitized me to seeing mad shit on my screens over the years, actually doing pretty well so far. Snorting valium and surfing the apocalypse! Woo.
Beware, this is all a possible setup for the biggest BS santa rally of ALL TIME. "Things are so fucking good the FED raised rates". Not saying it will happen, but i'd be very leary about betting the house short right now. "Santa drops the next 10 years of presents in your backyard all at once and promises to do even better next year!".
Deer eating some gmo corn and beans still is a lot cleaner eating than your store bought beef. Our 3 steers we will butcher in Feb have had no gmo feed. Love the woods. Love the hunt. Love the venison. Do something you love. Share it with a friend.
So does that mean if stop feeding cows gmo crap that the NWO will stop bashing them and trying to feed us bugs?
A few days ago I was out on my 4 wheeler. Stopped on the side of the road for a break, then had some crazed idiot come flying down a drive and tried interogating me over a dear poach that was just done days ago, accused me of it cause I had a gun, then blocked the road and got out of his truck with a knife. The comedy that ensued is almost too funny had you seen it in person. I was like boy, didn't your mama ever tell you not to bring a knife to a gunfight? It was all downhill for that moron after that. True story. Funniest thing is he called the sherrif afterwards, not realizing the only one that broke any laws was himself. I was asked if I wanted to file charges, since he was stupid enough to tell the same story, I said no. I got better things to do. Besides, don't want him in jail I might actually enjoy pulling the trigger next time.
The jury is still out on Chronic wasting disease jumping from deer to humans. Also you have to be aware of the Lyme disease carried by the ticks.
Deer and cattle were not designed to eat corn or grains, natural habitat is where it is at.
Grass fed beef is the only beef I eat and high mountain deer are the only ones I hunt, along with elk, bear, lions and moose.
The last three Holsteins I fed for our freezer never had any grain. Great eating but it takes them over two years of age before they fatten on grass hay. It's worth the wait.
The secret to grass feeding is to get a big framed animal with lots of chest and rib capapcity so they can fill up on roughage. Something that can eat 60 lbs of dry hay a day. Dry hay makes the marbling taste better than feeding them silage or green feed.
Nothing like a grass fed Stein.....especially if you wear dentures. lmfao. I'll bet you have a drawer full of those meat tenderizing hammers in your table setting. Those always come in handy to beat the fuck out of anyone who asks if that was a steak they were eating or a grilled beaver tail.
I like beaver tail. Both species.
I've had funnier insults than your's...it doesn't bother me.
Holsteins got a bad name from some sons of a bitches selling old canners, and the new breeders breeding for dairy. I've had this family for 35 years and people beg me to fill freezer orders. The local Mennonite butcher always said my carcasses will match any grain fed beef breed.