This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Will The Fed Hike Rates This Week? The Only 'Data' That Matters
This is the real "data" that The Fed is "dependent" on...
As Deutsche Bank notes, The Fed is “right” to be raising rates. If they had done it earlier all the problems they now have to face, they wouldn’t have had to. If they do it later, those same problems will be even worse. Of course had they done it earlier there may well have been other problems. Like for example, no growth and a much higher unemployment rate. But that’s all water under the bridge. Fact is this Fed is ready to go. And markets know it!
But, what would it take for the Fed not to hike this coming meeting?
We think SPX through 1860.
Right through the 1900s, the Fed is likely to be complacent that this is normal market volatility. Pre-Prom nerves, if you will. It took the SPX just seven trading days to drop from 2102 to 1867 in August, an average of over 30 points a day. It could do the same but the pace would have to be closer to double. Possible but one wouldn’t make that a central forecast. More likely, the debate will quickly shift to how quickly the Fed stops tightening.
It appears, we have discussed previously, that the logic of the median dots is to raise rates to dampen a would be credit bubble (and 'disable' the record leverage that low risk premia have allowed). It’s hard to know how far rates have to rise for that outcome but we suspect it's more than one hike and less than what our adjusted Taylor rule model for terminal funds suggests, which is around 2.5 percent. Plus or minus 1 percent therefore seems a reasonable first proxy, which would have the Fed hiking say through to September, 2016.
And then what...
It looks like the market is already pricing in the next inevitable round of QE.
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 52 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Waiting for Janet is like waiting for the fucking Jackpot. Get it over with bitch. Raise the fucking thermometer.
They'll simply "widen" the range from 0-0.25 to 0-0.5. You heard it here first.
What in world is can that be?! -- Dizzy intellect of Vizzini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EkBuKQEkio
The real question is... if they raise rates...
How many days will it be before they have to lower them again?
So one shouldn't make predictions, but for entertainment: if you were to extrapolate from the above graphs, the Fed will raise rates this week, fold next week, and ease sometime next year. Speculate on bitchez!
Sounds about right. Then we really will be in Bear 2.0 situation. I think they can contain it until next fall. Right before the elections, just like 2008.
That means the Wall Street hacks won't get Christmas bonuses?
Let's hope to see them begging for food stamps by the next year's end.
Here's my ideea of a soup kitchen for them:
http://goo.gl/UjTdrR
Futures just went full bulltard. What happened?
Could be best buying opportunity in PM's in years... and last for a lonnnnnng time
Do bulltards need reasons?
watch for the leaked info, you know the insiders will be trading this before hand, we all know the out of nowhere trade signatures.
I will take the over on 3 banking days, but just barely.
like two dozen people here alone have beaten you to that one
I'm actually glad to hear that.
Lets get mortgage rates back near normal ----5-7% ... and see the market start to correct...revert to the mean
Piece of cake. She wants to raise, so she'll goose up stocks so they're in Tyler's range.
Wonder how long janet held out on giving up the pussy on that first date.......makes sense now.
Imagine the poor bastard who was waiting for that. Better off jerking off with a cheese grater.
uh.....have you or anyone else ever jerked off with a cheese grater? Who would even consider that as an option.?
Mr. Yellen? That is why is call "Yellen", because entire life with Janet is session of torture.
"Mr. Yellen" is a mensch.
https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/143-Thoughts-on-glo...
Have you ever seen smegma? I for one hope I never have to...
I just junked myself. Sometimes the fingers, they just can't be stopped...
You can unjunk yourself by clicking on the uparrow icon.
But then you'd be considered a douche for giving yourself an upvote...which would just garner you a bunch of junks.
Now if somebody was mean then they'd upvote you and bring that to fruition.
Really do you care about junks? Sheeeeeet.
You should not. You do not need validation. You do not need to defend your position. If you believe that you must then you lack conviction in what you posted and should not have posted it in the first place.
If they cannot give me an argument and have me think about what I proposed then they are just not worth consideration.
Think about it.
Nothing more obnoxious than some pretentious fuck accusing others of insecurity based on some random internet bullshit.
edit: just upvoted myself
A jar pf liver is far more preferable
She's a special girl. Wouldn't you hold out?
Lucky guy he must've been who got there first. I'll bet Janet was a cutiepie during the leave-it-to-beaver era.
Haha, beavers. Get it?
if she was ever a cutie pie, the era had a name like "Paleozoic"
That face tells me she's still a virgin.
She won't hike.
Think Hyena genitalia, no normal vagina.
I think we are about to bear witness to the greatest policy blunder in Fed history. And that's true whether they hike rates or not.
painted into a corner the fed is.
thank you yoda
The joke that was.
The bankers have a backdoor. They have cornered us.
If one looks on the 2015 Economist cover, it does show the Federal Reserve, on a game of PANIC, and on the bottom is Green Light, and a partially visible word of sis..... Possibly crisis...... Who knows.
Could be just a whimsical cover, nothing more.
No, it's a story about your SISter.
if you will not turn to the dark side and raise rates.......then perhaps she will. NEVEEEEEEEEEEER
The banksters are telling them to crush the markets with a head fake rate raise - clean the sheeple's retirement/defined contribution plan/pension chips off the green felt - then more bailouts and QE for Wall Street.
If history is a guide...
...Followed by WW3 in 2-3 years based on the same history.
... or 2-3 months now that we have the information super-highway.
Speaking of super highways. Food supply will be waving good-bye on the NAFTA route to it's favorite currency. If there is enough food, the rest will figure itself out. When the curtain is pulled, and Oz is revealed as a Flim Flam man, the masses will go directly to the ports and stop the shipments. If every plot of land were farmed, as climates permit, the cost of food would go lower, increased in supply and demand. ObamaCull has woken most people up. Stockholm syndrome has the rest on a ball and chain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnHm4ro_l8s (Turn Me Loose, Loverboy)
I don't think QE ever stopped. As long as the fed is buying Treasury bonds and pumping the stock market, we can't say that any market tampering is done.
You have to ask: why tamper with the market? Why not let it be free and open?
They must be hiding something. It is the CON game- keeping the sleepers confident in the rotten money system until it ripens into a maggot-laced carcass. When that bloating carcass pops, the devastation will have the people crying for their masters to save them. The new world order will then be ushered in.
The fact the Fed balance sheet has not shrunk for over a year proves QE did not disappear, only stayed the same. They are still reinvesting the maturing bonds into moar bonds. This is not an insignificant amount.
The fact that they did not taper makes me wonder if they can raise rates and keep the market up with unlimited 1's and 0's.
CD +1. Yes. VGC 10b USD a day. Almost exact same amount like clockwork.
biggest. bubble. evah.
All 1oz Silver coins are €12 @ EurGold
https://www.eurgold.de/silver/silver-coins/
You suck. Leave us alone Beatle Juice.
Meanwhile, Russia foresees no recovery in oil prices for ~7 years:
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Sees-No-Oil-Pri...
We at the Fed are monitoring developments in all markets and all economic indicators, and we see no cause for panic or concern.
Afterall, as long as foreign central banks keep buying our wall paper, and as long as we are unaudited, we can pretty much
manipulate any market we want, by as much as we want. If we are ever caught, we will claim that our actions were in the best interest of the public, and if it were'nt for our actions, the country would have already gone into depression. So BTFD because one way or another, I will have the S&P 500 at new highs, so I can keep the illusion that the economy is functioning.
Seattle gives Uber/Lyft drivers the green light to unionize
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/12/seattle-city-council-votes-to...
Federal reserve, the single point of failure in this casino.
Any vehicle with a single steering pivot is capable of experiencing speed wobble. Speed wobbles indicate an upcoming crash.
But what about hat wobbles?
http://celeryman.alexmeub.com/images/tayne16.gif
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maAFcEU6atk
CRB slipped below 40 year support today but managed to claw back above before close. A rate rise will send it back to levels not seen in nearly 70 years. A hold or more QE will see a bounce and the return of a commodity bull. Its all or nothing Thursday.
They will hike the quarter point along with a massive injection of liquidity into the equity markets under the radar.
The statement will be such a fog of bullshit it will be open to virtually any interpretation.
Insiders will sell at the blow off top on Wednesday and half life on the rally will do a SHTF by Friday.
And than we are truly off into unknown territory after that.
If you read history this kind of geopolitical and financial vacuum usually ends very, very badly.
The Tylers say they can't hike the rate without draining liquidity.
I let this water flow under the bridge as well and wait for FED's decision not to waste any more grey cells on this.
Yoda's so wasted https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtItOz3K7uE
I regret only that I have but one upvote to give. Classic Sandler dubbed over Yoda's death scene. Pure gold.
It pays to take everything Deutsche Bank says with a pinch of 'you're a bunch of dangerous fucking morons'.
Reading between the lines and they know it since 2008 the only issue was how long it would take them to secure financially those more worthy and even the elites need banks to hold wealth as a symbol of power.
That period is coming to and end, all secure time to force this economic system back to what they want.
That is the FED's rate rise...
To not secure the economic system they wanted in 2008 would have left them susceptible to going bust in the next period.
And futures are up..........time to drive to work and stand around cause we have no work...it's working.........
It's all theater to the 'real' rulers of the world. They win what ever happens. By a process of deflation and inflation they capture the lions share of the wealth of the world.
monopoly. the true threat across the ages.
"competition is a sin"
1) de regulate global financial markets
2) de regulate global trade
3) bankrupt sovereigns
4) privatize everything
mostly accomplished. a few bankster oligarchs have monopolized the world. w. va coal mines, circa 1900. open air plantation. debt slaves.
#BankstersAreTerrorists #AusterityIsCode4Looting
P < P + I
If you tamper with interest rates for an extended period of time you are tampering with the free market.
If you tamper with the free market you are tampering with the fundamental characteristic and foundation of society's transactions.
If you tamper with transactions it's like tampering with the DNA of a human being by using radiation.
Nothing is ever entirely free or free of manipulation but what we have witnessed for a number of years is the equivalent of genocide. Genocide of people's savings, people's income, people's jobs. And all because some people thought that that very low interest rates was a real choice.
Like in the Game of Monopoly, what do you do when the Bank runs out of Bills. Well, to keep the game going you pen some numbers on pieces of paper (IOU's) and ask for the money to be returned in exchange.
Funny how life imitates art
Regardless of the FED's action, the market must be up by the end of the week to squeeze all the December shorts. After that, then a slow burn??
Maybe a quick spike downward to get people to buy bonds?? Just a thought.
If the FED raises interest rates then they will pay more money in interest to the "too big to fail" banks that have money parked at the FED.
It is just another scam. The banksters borrow money from the FED, turn around and lend it back to the FED and the FED pays them interest on that money at ZERO risk.
Another backdoor bailout brought to you by the traitorous crooks that run the Federal Reserve.
We are so screwed.
Whoa, wait a minute here....are you saying the .fed has a 3rd mandate of keeping the stock market rising? I think the first two mandates are already met, steady inflation and low unemployment rate....why wouldn't they raise?
Oh yeah, TD, when you imply things like this, could you supply the R2 for the data set? I know correlation does not always equal causation but in some cases it does....