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Bears Beware: Dennis Gartman Is Having None Of This Rally
Yesterday, when futures were at the lows somewhere below 2000 and just above the Fib 50 retracement, we said that "bulls may have one final trump card up their sleeve: Gartman is now actively adding to shorts."
On Friday we said that we were considering adding short hedges to our retirement funds in order to protect against the downside, but we failed to act; that is we did not make that an “official” recommendation and indeed we did not take any such action on our own. Clearly we should have. Clearly things were coming apart at the edges of the markets and clearly, in retrospect, we should have taken action. We’ll do so today on any minor intra-day strength that might evolve and as we write stock index futures are trading 12-13 “Big Figures” higher and that might serve as enough intra-day strength into which to sell.
A few hours later, the market closed at the highs. So, in a respite to bears, has Gartman done his usual 24 hour flip-flop? For the answer, look at futures which just hit their highs, perhaps in response to Gartman's continued bearishness:
THE S&P LOOK OMINOUS:… And It’s the Best of Breed: The market is “bouncing” a bit this morning but the volume is coming in on the downside and yesterday’s rally was on terrible “internals” as the number of stocks falling dwarfed the number rising!
SHARE PRICES HAVE FALLEN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY, as seven of the ten markets comprising our International Index have fallen while only three have risen and of the seven that have fallen five have fallen by more than 1% with the European markets leading the way lower. For the year-to-date, stocks in global terms are now down 512 “points” on our Index or 5.2%, while stocks here in the US are down a much less severe but still nonetheless important 1.8%. Interestingly, stocks in “Asia” have tended to lead the way lower for most of the year, with the market Sydney down 9.3%, or with stocks in Hong Kong down 9.6%... and let’s not forget the weakness in Brazil, where that market is down 10.5%. So, just as some here in the US say that this is not a stock market but a market of stocks, we say that global investing is not a global market but may be a market of specific spots around the globe.
That said, we are very gravely concerned about the validity of a bull market and the harsh reality of a bear market in global terms, for one after another after another of the various markets around the world is breaking upward sloping trend lines; has topped out well below previous highs and is making new and lower lows. This we find disconcerting and this we find worthy of note. It is time once again to seek the safety of the sidelines. This is not the time to be aggressively bullish of equities but rather this is the time for… as we say here in the South… “hunkering down,” for getting smaller, for curtailing exposure.
Alas, at least in early trade things aren't looking too good:
- U.S. STOCK FUTURES EXTEND GAIN: S&P +23; NASDAQ +46, DJIA +160
Then again, with the market in the last two days acting very odd, driven entirely by stop hunts and gap chases, despite the early pre-Fed euphoria, perhaps this time Gartman will be right?
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Who's starting an inverse-Gartman fund?
I will, everyone send your money to me.
Bears only need to beware for a short time before he flip-flops.
Certain behaviors will be displayed as the patient transitions off of Thorazine.......
Thorazine, sounds like Corzines' god complex
Can we just stop all the Gartman posts. He's full of shit and bloviates constantly. Enough. Point made.
Meanwhile, baltic dry new all time low
I've been watching the Baltic Dry since 2012-ish. I recently stopped doing that. Near as I can tell it's a data point full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Baltic Dry and the Chinese one (forget the name) are just macro data. Swing or Short term trading off them is an account killer.
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at 11:00 a.m., when he turns bullish, after dow up 200 points, he'll say he'll bullish and then market will drop 1500 points. lol
THAT is exactly what I want to see.
that would be funny. but a bit tight to still set up a gartman inverse fund in the next 1.5 hours...
Classic. S&P Futures go further green, just as this article is posted. I so want him to come out bullish by the end of the day.
...but....but.....the quaint said stocks would crash this week. whowouldathought once everyone thinks stocks will tank, stocks go the opposite way. in a big way.
Could be right this time using the broken clock theory.
Is this the Santa Rally or Fed meeting Rally? Its so confusing.
"Friday we said that we were considering adding short hedges to our retirement funds in order to protect against the downside, but we failed to act; that is we did not make that an “official” recommendation and indeed we did not take any such action on our own."
Dennis, nobody cares if you act on your recommendations. WE act on your recommendations. In the opposite direction.
Don't over-think this, Dennis. Just BE YOURSELF. Don't listen to others. Don't worry if you don't make any money. Rest well knowing that you've made a lot of OTHER people money.
FYI, his taint always does the opposite of his brain... winning!
jesus of christ fuckish of off already
Wait.... what?
I think I'm making that the next greeting on my voice mail.
I think Gartman is right on this one. High yield debt problems will rule the weeks ahead. No way of getting around it unless yellen backs out of the interest rate hike.
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Gartman is right this time.
Thank you. All in at the open.
This means the rally will be huge.
There was no way all that S&P premium in puts was ever going into the money.
This important event falls at a peculiar time—less than 48 hours before the largest option expiry in many years. There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients
Not even Gartman can bat 1000%. Think he might have finally gotten one right.
Guess that should have been bat 0% depending on your point of view.
Not talking about temporary rally to the end of the year. That means nothing unless you're a 2 week trader. 2016 is the key. January could be very interesting.
How could someone come into this week short the stock market with a massive options expiration on Friday and a two day FOMC meeting?
Bernanke actually cut interest rates back in 2007 on a Thursday ahead of options expiration to rally the stock market and save the short put sellers on Wall Street.
Same thing around this year. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Yellen does not cut rates tomorrow.
The FED exists to save Wall Street from their own stupidity. And to pitch their failed bets onto the U.S. taxpayer.
Sad days for Amerika.
It means at least a 200 point rally today.
The algos go in a buying spree when Gartman goes bearish,
He signalling buying again to the trader bots.
I know you say that in jest but the mathematicians that program those algos probably by now have inserted a line of code to have them run inverse of Gartman. This guy is the ultimate investment troll. He has to know that...
Yep, if Fartman's out, it's time to go ALL IN.
Release the Cramer: BUY! BUY! BUY!
BOOYAH!
Hmmm, what if Grandma Janet pulls out the Cyber hose and rallies oil a few bucks? Watch out above, flash crash going north? Ha ha ha ho ho ho
YES! I went long SPX at 2010 with a plan to hold until at least 2060. Gartman being on the other side means that I am already winner on this trade.
He said the other night on CNBC that he is once again long tankers. If I could ever figure out how to short tankers, I would do it immediately.
Damn it Fartman, I was prepared to watch this SOB crumble now I will have to reverse a few trades. Oh well, you are money DG, spot on every time if you just trade the inverse.
1. The FED need to raise rates at some point to maintain credibility.
2. The FED and minioins have been jawboning to convince the markets that IF rates start to rise, that economic conditions are in recovery mode - AND, that the FED will raise using the Goldilocks algorithm (just right)
3. The market is part of this jawboning - the muppets have been told that the rate rise is baked in, so the market has to go up leading into the rise to convince them of that and suck them in for and sucking-squid exits.
4. Investment parasites need the market to stay uip into Dec 31st to collect the best (last) performance premium for a while.
5. Buy the rumour; sell before the news (or at least before the New Year).
9:33 AM - Looks like they are taking the markets to the moon today.
Yes, indeed. Europe & DAX already up 3.2%. Absolutely insane.
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS AT WORK!!!
Rate increase! We must have a rate increase! Make those markets green because we need to justify a rate increase!
Criminals acting in broad daylight, right under your nose.......
You know what, I honestly believe Fartman is the messenger of the Fed and the PPT to Wall Street. These sick fucks love to do shit out in the open yet covert, Yellin gets her nuts off on it. I believe they channel messages to the Oligarchs and "Privalleged" inside traders through Fartman. Their direction to the cronies is to just trade the opposite of whatever Fartman says to do. The SOB is wrong every time, so why else would he be given air time ? The Fed can message right in front of our faces to a select but broad audience, without leaving extensive email trails or a long list of phone calls. Why else has nobody in the media mentioned how horrible Fartman and his market calls are ?
Simple, but brilliant communication plan.
Markets go down on extremely heavy volume and anything short a nuclear war the next day bounce right back on extremely light volume. Same story different day.
Duplicate.
No need for QE or ZRIP if the Fed hires him as a Permabear.
Can't this guy be right even once? Even the law of averages does not come into play here.
Im actually surprised he didnt flip flop today.. Will be interesting to see if he is right or wrong today.
So much for blind squirrels and broken clocks.
even the broke GARTMAN CLOCK is right twice in 24 and we're nearing -0- hour so...i'm down to my last indicator: SHORT INTEREST.
everything else is broke, the only easy money to steal is from the Shorts.
When the Shorts capitulate....
I'm pretty sure he meant, "...bunkering down..."
It's about to get real.
The System senses a growing swell of agitation among the seething masses.
Record gun sales in November got their attention. This means that they have to step up their plan a bit. This could be make it or break it for them. If they begin to lose control of the green screen "problems" in the back ground, the peeple might entirely realize it's all a fascade designed to keep us all cowering in fear and fighting each other. Sorry. We didn't come this far by cowering in fear and letting the 'safe space' crowd dominate our selves. We as men approached the foe head-on. Many fell. Many will fall again. In the end, you simply can't stop numbers. Massive amounts of people storming the gates. I can see that happening. The elite will make the wrong decision one day and it will be just what's needed to trigger a massive, massive reaction.
History repeats itself because sociopaths, over time, tend to rise to the top. The masses love sociopaths. Just look at the adoration we heap on actors and athletes. If we were wiser, we would seek out the quiet man that keeps his mouth shut until he really has something to say. The proverbial Man on the Hill. Too bad there aren't too many left. They were all killed off. Kill the messenger. We can't have this type of blasphemy, telling people that riches are a bad thing.
Crucify Him! Let his blood be on us and our children!
I'm pretty sure he meant, "...bunkering down..."
It's about to get real.
The System senses a growing swell of agitation among the seething masses.
Record gun sales in November got their attention. This means that they have to step up their plan a bit. This could be make it or break it for them. If they begin to lose control of the green screen "problems" in the back ground, the peeple might entirely realize it's all a fascade designed to keep us all cowering in fear and fighting each other. Sorry. We didn't come this far by cowering in fear and letting the 'safe space' crowd dominate our selves. We as men approached the foe head-on. Many fell. Many will fall again. In the end, you simply can't stop numbers. Massive amounts of people storming the gates. I can see that happening. The elite will make the wrong decision one day and it will be just what's needed to trigger a massive, massive reaction.
History repeats itself because sociopaths, over time, tend to rise to the top. The masses love sociopaths. Just look at the adoration we heap on actors and athletes. If we were wiser, we would seek out the quiet man that keeps his mouth shut until he really has something to say. The proverbial Man on the Hill. Too bad there aren't too many left. They were all killed off. Kill the messenger. We can't have this type of blasphemy, telling people that riches are a bad thing.
Crucify Him! Let his blood be on us and our children!