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“We Don’t Remember How To Raise Interest Rates. None Of Us Worked Here The Last Time We Did It”
By Paul Rowady, Director of Research at Alphacution Research Conservatory
Me and Yellen: Catalyst for the Next Rate Decision
< This is a test. This station is conducting a test of the Emergency Broadcast System. This is only a test.>
I had been in this room before.
It was the early post-Dodd Frank days. Maybe February 2012. I had authored a study on the impacts of new regulations on collateral and initial margin requirements for OTC derivatives (OTCDs). The study had been commissioned and was being promoted by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE). Largely as a result of my global initial margin estimate of US$ 2 trillion for OTCDs, it had made a big splash. On the back of this, the event invites and media came knocking. My friend, John McPartland – “McP” to those who knew him longer than 15 minutes – invited me to present at a monthly luncheon for Chicago financial muckety-mucks.
Now, it was good to be back.
For this night’s event - set at the corner of LaSalle and Jackson in the main gathering space on the 2nd floor of the Chicago Fed – the room was host to the region’s annual director’s dinner. On this night, during a beautiful late spring evening in 2015, I would be far from center stage - sitting at the equivalent of the kid’s table at one of the far flanks of the room.
It had turned out that a former colleague and dear friend was working for one of the senior-most executives at the Chicago Fed and who was also responsible for much of the event preparations: “Would you like to join as my guest? Chair Yellen will be there as our keynote.” How could I refuse? A hot date at the Fed – and a chance to meet the world’s 7th most powerful person, according to Forbes’ latest rankings.
Honestly, I don’t remember much of what was discussed. Meeting Janet Yellen during a crowded pre-dinner cocktail reception only left the impression that this Yoda-like character – both in stature and “force” – must be the product of a George Lucas-John Stewart late-night writing session. That said, she was incredibly gracious to a guy from Detroit, particularly given the throngs of adoring employees towering around her.
Then, after we had cycled through the courses of fine food and fine Fed China, came the main event: The Chair’s keynote speech (including some Q&A). Here, again, the memory is foggy about the contents of the speech. Its style was surprisingly Greenspan-esque, just like on TV during official testimony (i.e. – entirely sanitized of information). Its circuitous logic caused me vertigo. I found myself seeking refuge in the tiramisu staring back at me, a bit uncomfortable that I was only hearing the wah wahs of Charlie Brown’s adult voices.
Until this, during the back and forth of Q&A: (Laughter around the room…) “We don’t remember how to raise interest rates. None of us worked here the last time we did it.”
< …This is only a test. If this had been an actual emergency, the attention signal you just heard would have been followed by official information, new, or instruction… >
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“We don’t remember how to raise interest rates. None of us worked here the last time we did it.”
Good. A room full of newbies to be led around the room and told what to do. A wet dream for Yellen Felon and company.
They keep using that word "work", and I really don't think they understand what that word actually means.
Yellda: I will explode the world's economies will I.
It's a threefold Q&A insight.
1.) Take a deep breath ..... Draining reserves from the system whether by targeting the funds rate or via a quantity measure (a la days of Volcker) is simply the opposite of adding reserves to the system
2.) They really don't know what the fuck they're doing
3.) And they really don't know what the fuck they're doing is proven by the "dry runs" they've had with the dealer community for reverses, repos, etc. without recognizing it's mechanically the exact opposite of .....
.............. Oh dear God, the Terrorists Have Won. (That's not a joke, kids)
But not to worry. Chairperson Stinky Weaselteats will not "sker" you by raising rates. She and her friend Stanley Honkensnort will promise everybody whose been good a bowl of warm Yak puss, a tuft of floating Yangyze pig mole hair and a bag of pre-chewed gum. And talk real tough.... while choking back nervous tears and shakes during the Feast of the Quadriplegic Dwarf Show
You forgot 4. The Tribe is making it's move, and is going to take us down sooner rather than later because of the Trump train and revival of Nationalism.
Actually can't reprogram a hard coded system to make varible adjustments if it wasn't ever programmed to do it. The whole thing makes more sense if you think of the entire US economic system as run by bots and stock footage of dead people. Easier to just let it run to 36000 as some idiot wanted it to. Then we'll all see billionaires and trillionaires in a ditch eating cat food out of a tin with a stick. The remainder of their lives looking over their shoulders wondering why it blew up so badly and who's going to shiv them.
And there isn't a fucking thing they can do to stop it now. Nothing at all, they are getting exactly what they wanted. It's going to be beautiful watching it burn to the ground.
I can't wait...I seriously hope the fuckers raise the rate.
Old Fellen raising the rate just 25bps could be the equivalent of Silverstein yelling "Pull It!!!" before Building 7 goes down:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2q2mD2HaKA
Why would they need to know how to raise interest rates?
… As the Wizard of Oz cries, as he’s floating off in his balloon:
“I can’t come back !…
I don’t know how it works !!”
Just click your heels together and say "make interest rate go up" three times. Then sit back and watch the economic cataclysmic event happen and jump (be pushed) from a very tall building. You are welcome.
right. All they need to do is this:
1) Bend over
2) Put their head between their legs
3) Kiss their ass goodbye
Don't see a lot of ancaps obsessed with jews. Was rothbard evil?
Nothing like the smell of impending doom.......
I prefer "Yollen"
Yeah, try looking it up guys. Check out 1987: Everytime the Fed raised, the market went up....'til Black Mon. that Oct. The Fed's been dreaming of a redo of that; just minus the Oct. part of course.
… It suddenly occurs to me that anytime I hear “adults” speaking, it’s always in the voice of a muted trumpet.
AMEN.
It would be fitting if the members of the FED spent the rest of their careers with a shovel in their hands.
They are laughing like drains, the population have swallowed this for years....next stop negative rates!
Who knows, maybe some of them are not even human......
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/is-russian-presiden...
Of course "some of them are not even human..." Shit man, these people running our ponzi fraud of a financial system are evil demons! Now...I'm wondering if Angela Merkel is Adolf Hitler's daughter? http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IqQIMPIQcXM/UTyOmOOODNI/AAAAAAAAAzw/GNZPASZ9XH...
If Hitler really did flee to Argentina and died in the 1980's, then yes it is possible that she could be his legitimate daughter!
Depends on your definition of legitimate.
I've been running with the assumption that Merkel was Hitler's offspring for some time.
The original story was that she was the product of artificial insemination using frozen Hitler sperm, but no reason he couldn't have sired her the old fashioned way (assuming he didn't die April 30, 1945, that is).
Get a new schtick. You posted the same thing last night.
Standard Disclaimer: The Republican drinking game meant consumption of alcohol, not the ingesting of psychedelic drugs.
Lagarde, and Lindh--what fucking narcissist sluts. The Yoda must feel lonely.
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First day tour of facilties...
Yellen : "And this is the rate adjustment room..."
Recruit : "Hey, what's this big, red button for?" *Reaches out to touch it*
Yellen : "Nnnnnooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!........."
Hike or HiQE. Stay tuned to find out.
I would laugh myself silly if the Hike was to 1%. Yes, One Percent.
I do not believe anyone would have that priced in, and would fit the bill for black swan event.
All of this consternation over a quarter of one percent, or even a half of one percent should not even be happening in a "market" that was remotely healthy.
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
They will never raise rates..............
See a pattern yet?
What's your point?
What part about they "can't" raise rates do people not understand?
-Argenta
You seem to forget they make it going up OR going down, the up has become UNSUSTAINABLE
I know, I watched Charlie Brown too.
But, I can still dream.......
Chinamans: Janet, bubula, we have your back.
Your entire worldview is about to be changed, Bob. You're about to be introduced to reality. This afternoon you will be dragged kicking and screaming by your thinning locks to stare at it until you sober up. Afterwards, you'll mutely exchange that paltry stash of gold and silver for spot minus fifty percent, shave that awful stubble and start looking for a real job. And when you get that real job, you'll refrain from spouting rubbish about "the financial apocalypse."
Aha! Putin Lover and all his previous banned aliases are jockeyed by an Englishman. Now it all makes sense. Only an Englishman could have such a deep and profound commitment to avoiding reality at all costs up to and including shoving ones head way up their own ass. No other culture comes close to the level of denial that the English can muster. Yeah, some English people are wide awake and get it, but truly Top shelf Denial is best exhibited by the English.
So is sarcasm.
It's hard to say for sure, but consider the possibility that you may be misreading PL.
Standard Deviant, I knew MillionDollarBonus and PutinLover is no million dollar bonus. In all seriousness if you read enough of his comments it's pretty clear he is raging against those that would dare to tug at his sleeping mask for fear the light and clarity of the real world might get in.
They're stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise rates even by 0.25% they'll pop the debt bubble since more rate hikes would have to be priced in. If they don't raise rates then they will lose the last bare-thread scraps of credibility that they still possess as we enter this next recession still on the rock-bottom rates from the last recession.
It would not surprise me if they surprise everyone by pulling a Japan by raising rates by 0.10% or by some other ridiculous amount.
There's nothing wrong whatsoever with the market. Stocks are near all-time highs, you and your ilk near all-time lows, unemployment continues to improve and we've got an agreement on climate change.
Now, keep practicing that dour look! :-)
That explains why the world is at ZIRP and NIRP
Sounds like the Weimar performance metrix has been succesfull. Nothing to see here.
if agreements worked we wouldnt need laws.
im going to laugh if its .1%
yellen will just shrug her shoulders, its something right?
Facepalm.
look at Yoda the future scapegoat and how well she meshes into this photo. There is no try...
The fact that LeGarde looks sexy in the photo is simply testament to the contrast between her and Yellen.
"sure, Jan..."
Yep, yellen is the ugly girl that girls bring along with them, so that everyone else looks prettier by comparison.
“We don’t remember how to raise interest rates. None of us worked here the last time we did it.”
A-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha....waitaminute....why are those people approachnig us with rope?
Rope? I bet they will remember that as the whole World will . It must be made for public view to deter future Psychopaths from doing the same.
As karl denninger wrote all most nobody has ran a biz or traded in a intrest rising inviroment
I haven't traded an "intrest rising enviroment" either.
Also some 20 somethings don't even know what a bear market is thanks to the fed.
Also some 20 somethings don't even know... you could've stopped right there...
I'm dating a 23 year old who is sharper than a full third of posters on here. She gets the big picture and the gravity of the situation in a way most boomers I know can't imagine. They are too busy with the final phase of selling out to dare to question their lords and masters. It's not about age, gender, race or religion. You either realize it's humanity vs the globalists or you are focusing on the wrong problems. My millenial girlfriend gets it and was wide awake before I met her.
Bear market... something to do with Putin, right?
Good one. Set up to blame Russia. FSA will eat it up.
Funny, almost everyone I know who hates and blames Russia is pretty well off and votes Republican. Super poor people don't usually give a fuck about politics and certainly not global ones. Me thinks you are thinking of the wrong set of useful idiots in this case.
fed is short for federal right? So its gotta be a government body?
Whats with the Whore in the middle of that Sausage package.
Your comment is an insult to whores...
You mean Turkey's Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci? He's to the right of the hottie.
Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey Ali Babacan isis the one chatting her up.
She is working!!
It's a dude. Tranny.
1 in 7 portfolio managers have never traded thru one either ... im sure they won't panic at the first sign of their own blood on the screens
The top brass aren't panicking. They're committing their Swiss bank account numbers and the names on their fake Latin American or southeast Asian passports to memory.
D-Day for Fed Fiat Credit System:https://youtu.be/v_5QBJx0Im8
We russians are now being fucked by sanctions and because of our poor economy structure that can be only desribed as gas station.
We are fucked because just look at this: http://www.forexpf.ru/chart/usdrub/
70 RUB for 1 USD. Imagine how it feels for russians that took loan in USD when it was 25 RUB for 1 USD (just 2 years ago) and now have to pay triple more. Fuck! We are fucked but TV with Putin in screen say something else.
WHY!?
Don't worry. In the new FED-engineered monetary universe, the RUB will strengthen when the Fed Rate rises. Just you watch.
Just watch what? I am watching how RUB has crashed more and more by each day. Come on! 25 RUB or 70 RUB for 1 USD is BIG DIFFERENCE!
What's the IMF gonna' do if they default, invade?
If Ukraine doesn't have to pay, why should Russia?
Russia's fine.
I don't care about that! I am paying for year now OVERPRICE for USD!!! Who the fuck care about that jibrish you are taling about?
Dump all your USD, then.
How? I have 50k USD debt! As millions other Russians. We don't have right to go bankrupt as you fancy americans! We are now being fucked!
Just thank your lucky stars Putin is in charge and not some twit like Yeltsin or the other pro-Western lackies. At least Putin will go down fighting whereas the others would simply surrender and take orders from the US State Department.
I don't give a shit about that. Putin made this situation under which I and million other Russians have to pay 3 times more than before!!
Why? For what reasone I have to be greatful for that? And why we now have this Rotenberg tax on truckers? And why Putin hates so much open public tenders and gives away all public projects to his friends without open tenders? Why? To fight Obama? Is that reason why our elders have to live with 90 EUR a month? Because of fight against Obama?
The ultimate plan is to crush the US economy and the US Dollar. But until that day comes, the dollar will probably rise and remain strong for complex reasons.
The important question is when they will decide to crash the US economy. It could happen today (lucky you) or a few years from now.
Putin is just another pawn of the tribe.
are you writing here that millions of Russians have debt in USD? or that you have debt in USD?
The coming war with Turkey should help you out if you dont get drafted
Are you mad bro!? We are Russians and they ar NATO. We would be smashed!
https://cofda.wordpress.com/2015/10/04/u-s-repeatedly-loses-in-pentagon-...
US loses, NATO loses... unless things go nuclear. In which case, everyone loses.
Sorry byt your source is just as credible as shit. Don't read shit... you know.
At least you will have NG heat for the winter.
Perhaps no NG heat for the winter, he is simple minded Ukroptsy troll earning 5 hryvnia each comment.
There is such a profession - in the comments to shit.
Once the House of Saud are driven from Riyadh and ISIS from Syria and Iraq, this won't be a problem any more. Oil will return to fair value, along with the ruble.
Wall Street created far bigger monsters than ISIS. The Russian army always slays them in the end.
Stop reading western news sites. You have access to Russian media that report real news.
"Stop reading western news sites. You have access to Russian media that report real news"
one of the worst advices I've ever read on ZH. might be that you believe that, but no, can't agree
if you want to understand anything, you have to pick the least involved media from every corner of the globe
don't visit Russian media if you want to get real news about Russia
don't visit American media if you want to get real news about America
don't visit Asian media if you want to get real news about Asia
don't visit ME media if you want to get real news about the ME
do visit ZH if you want... I forgot, what was the reason again?
oh, I remember: some really good articles and comments from real people... hidden among a huge amount of bullshit
"We Russians are now being fucked by sanctions..."
disagree. it's the (low) oil price (war) that is the main problem for Russia's economy, not the puny "sanctions"
roughly 50% of Russia's economy is related to oil and natgas (from memory)
It's about 70% not 50% and that is also true to other "gas station" economies. Not like Norway for example.
You Ukrainians strikingly people believe in the myths and unwilling to recognize the reality.
By the way, ukropina, you and your husband Lyashko on the chain drives, or in a separate house holds?
I'm for anything that keeps the Russians out of Thailand. They were starting to get really annoying.
Fret not, comrade. As you well know, our beloved president plays the long game. There's a method to his madness. That's why Russia devalued in 1994, 1998 and it's why Vlad's devaluing now. He's crazy like a fox!
True dat. Our Beloved President's long golf game takes over 6 hours on an empty couse.
WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
because he takes three mulligans per hole just so he can break 100...
why?
Some holes cannot be covered by .gov snipers.
just "raise" them to -0.25 :), as dovish as it gets
We live in bizzaro world now. Down is the new up.
Set them as a complex number, congratulate yourself for a job well done. Watch everyone going apeshit over school algebra program ... PROFIT.
n^i ought to do the trick.
VIX flat
Get ready for NIRP.
*Update*
VIX went from -8% to flat to +8% in 8 hrs. 8hrs later it's at +15%
It's differnt this time. Or, maybe it isn't.
We are going over the falls in a barrel.
Here I thought they had an easy button.
Silly! That only activates the printing presses.
Like Bush's joking about the inability to find WMDs. Funny to all his 'base', not so funny to all the hundreds of thousands who've died since, and are dying now thanks to the destabilization of an already shaky reagion. And now the US faces economic destabilization at home, worsening it abroad by the Fed's antics, and war with a nuclear superpower...while the de facto Elite make jokes over the clatter of fine silverware. Kafka would have felt right at home.
THe shitshow must go on.
That's strangely unsettling...
-Argenta
I like how they pretend to have a meeting on whether to increase rates. The Red Shields have already told them what to do.
It's all a conspiracy, isn't it, Bob?
Yes it is, Sparky.
Look hard enough at the picture, you can actually see the strings on these puppets.
Strings? I thought they were hand puppets.
That would explain the look on Yellen's face.
Whether you like it or not, the recovery is durable and it's here, reprobates.
Interest rates are headed up and your losing trade is headed even further down the toilet.
At any rate, if you cared about this great country one whit, you'd be happy things are improving.
Which recovery are you talking about? The recovery in labor force participation? The recover in wages adjusted for inflation? The recoveryin fulltime jobs versus parttime jobs? The recover in first time home buyers? The recovery in manufacturing? Don't confuse creating artificial bubbles in the stock and housing markets as a recovery.
That's what I'm wondering about too...what recovery?
Don't feed the trolls.
there is no troll concept more self-revealing of troll ignorance than mentioning degrees of in-toilet-edness, i.e., "headed even further down the toilet". Kinda laughable, it's so obviously juvenile. Toilet humor on ZH, perfickt!
You need to lay off the potato vodka.
What a group of clowns in this portarait! Gert sick to my stomach!
The only thing the self-fellating limpdick Fed can do is eraise rates. Whatever that means.
If humans were left to their own devices, then we would most likely have a free market, much less technology and much less corruption.
But we appear to be guided by strong (and seeming quite evil) hands that know how to do all of this and will tell the banking leaders what to do.
The Fed is stupid enough to think they can raise rates.
They HAVE to raise raates to support their narrative that everything is AWESOME and it's time to elect Hillary
Perhaps some powerful Dr. Evil will sproing a plot to wreck global markets and so make The Donald winner and new world champeen of the universe?
<-- Monkey see
<-- Monkey do
When they say the Fed is independent , they mean independent of rational thought. The solution to too much debt is ALWAYS more debt... said the President of Zimbabawe
Stick em in commie monkey suits and it could be the North Korean regime. Just as dangerous and twice as delusional.
and so, your zirp has failed
you've made the progress of a snail
don't worry...
[/tiger lillies}
Stop trying to bring America down and focus on bringing Russia to her knees, folks.
Why focus on bringing Russia down? Why focus on bringing anybody down except the warmongers themselves? Russia is only defending herself against those trying their damdest to goad her into WW3. You need to throw your TV away man and start realigning your priorities back into sync with reality.
Why on earth should the average US citizen ever even contemplate "bringing Russia to her knees" in the first place? We have far more in common with the average Russian than the average muslim.
In 1984 I was 16 and would have LOVED the idea of bringing Russia down. Now, I'm a middle-aged workaholic and I'd rather just let the Russians be Russians while I'm busy being an American. And I guess that goes for all of you around here who hate the Joooooos or Muslims or whoever. Mind your own business, and let others mind theirs, and you'd be surprised how much easier it is on your stress level. I'm too busy worrying about parent-teacher conferences and clearing the snow to lend headspace to people I'll never see or deal with personally.
Even the eternally optimistic and those who always claim they are super busy are starting to capitulate to the fact that we’re in a massive industrial and manufacturing slow down. I can't believe the Fed is ending ZIRP.
All those fund managers who have never seen anything but up...in stocks and zero in rates
Maybe the industry will need to train TRADERS again....or is that passe? Let the algos do the trading..
Bear Market? as in Yogi?
Y: hey BooBoo, let's go get us some more stawk pickanick baskets!
B: but Yogi what about Yellen the Fed Ranger?
Y: BooBoo, FUCK THE RANGER!
Like it matters.
The fed does nothing.
Can you imagine working for a company that has a little more than 500 employees and has the following statistics:
1. 29 have been accused of spousal abuse
2. 7 have been arrested for fraud
3. 19 have been accused of writing bad checks
4. 117 have directly or indirectly bankrupted at least 2 businesses
5. 3 have done time for assault
6. 71 cannot get a credit card due to bad credit
7. 14 have been arrested on drug-related charges
8. 8 have been arrested for shoplifting
9. 21 are currently defendants in lawsuits
10. 84 have been arrested for drunk driving in the last year
Can you guess which organization this is?
Give up yet?
It's the 535 members of the United States Congress. The same group of idiots that crank out hundreds of new laws each year designed to keep the rest of us in line.
You have to do a lot of sleazy things to be elected. Sleazy people have sleazy records. So blame the system.
Sorry, but no. This is a 16-year-old viral email that has long been debunked.
The staggering statistics, which have been reported here, and truly telling, are that the majority of Congress are now millionaires even as the middle class now makes up a minority of the population.
True, average person has only seven years of memory.
FSA=FMA
Free shit Army=Free Money Army...