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Something Strange Is Taking Place In The Middle Of The Atlantic Ocean

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Early last month, we noted that something very strange was happening off the coast of Galveston, Texas. 

As FT reported, "the amount of oil [now] at sea is at least double the levels of earlier this year and is equivalent to more than a day of global oil supply.” In short: the global deflationary crude supply glut is beginning to manifest itself in a flotilla of stationary supertankers, as millions of barrels of oil are simply stuck in the ocean as VLCCs wait to unload.

Ultimately, this led to nearly 40 crude tankers with a combined cargo capacity of 28.4 million barrels waiting to anchor near Galveston. Here’s what the logjam looked like:

 

In the latest sign that the world is simply running out of capacity when it comes to coping with an inexorable supply of commodities, three diesel tankers en route from the Gulf to Europe did something rather odd on Wednesday: they stopped, turned around in the middle of the ocean, and headed back the way they came! 

"At least three 37,000 tonne tankers - Vendome Street, Atlantic Star and Atlantic Titan - have made U-turns in the Atlantic ocean in recent days and are now heading back west," Reuters reported, citing its own tracking data.

The Vendome Street actually made it to within 800 miles of Portgual (so around 75% of the way there) before abruptly turning around. "Ship brokers said a turnaround so late in the journey would come at a cost to the charterer," Reuters notes. 

The problem: low prices, no storage capacity, and soft demand.

Here's Reuters again:

"European diesel prices and refining margins have collapsed in recent days to six-year lows as the market has been overwhelmed by imports from huge refineries in the United States, Russia, Asia and the Middle East. At the same time, unusually mild temperatures in Europe and North America further limited demand for diesel and heating oil, ptting even more pressure on the market.

 

Gasoil stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub climbed to a fresh record high last week.

And here are the stunning visuals via MarineTraffic.

Vendome Street

Atlantic Titan

As of now, it's "unclear if the tankers will discharge their diesel cargoes in the Gulf Coast or await new orders," but what you're seeing is a supply glut so acute that tankers are literally just sailing around with nowhere to go as there are reportedly some 250,000 tonnes of diesel anchored off Europe and the Mediterranean looking for a home. On that note, we'll close with the following quote from a trader who spoke to Reuters: 

"The idea is to keep tankers on the water as long as you can and try to find a stronger market."

 

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Wed, 12/16/2015 - 19:59 | 6932765 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

oil is going to 5$ a barrel. 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:02 | 6932782 ghengiskhan
ghengiskhan's picture

But happy days are here again.  Big daddy government said so and then the stock market went up again.  That means everything is fine.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:30 | 6932903 turtle
turtle's picture

Finally someone booted Tyler Durderdian... was wondering: Does he make money out of hits to his porn websites or is it just free advertising?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:34 | 6932935 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

awesome!  Drop all that diesel off in Florida please.  Love to see it drop down to about 1.50/gal around here

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:01 | 6933064 I MISS KUDLOW
I MISS KUDLOW's picture

Free crude for everyone, sign me up,,,,,,,what did we send back in trade for all that?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:19 | 6933155 old naughty
old naughty's picture

did the turn around happen before or after the strike on ISIS tankers?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:28 | 6933183 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

Has anyone checked to see if it's just oil plated tungsten inside?

Remember that big parking zone in the Asian waters where huge amounts of surplus and unused transport ships were being parked?

Any chance this is its equivalent for tankers?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:49 | 6933313 nuubee
nuubee's picture

This is not as strange as it may seem. I have a friend with a fairly large sailboat. He recently took it to Hawaii and they passed a large tanker literally just sitting there in the middle of the Pacific.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:03 | 6933354 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture
That's the middle of the Atlantic Ocean! And I am not taking my ship out there to just sit, no matter what no damn machine says. We're supposed to go to Metropolis and we're going to Metropolis!
Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:59 | 6933584 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

So all those years we were paying $4 for a gallon of gas wasn't because of scarcity like we were being told???  MOAR LIES!!  All they had to do was open up the faucet and the price would go down.  More fleecing!!

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:20 | 6933643 erg
erg's picture

I think all these tankers Captains are hoping to stumble across the Bermuda Triangle and be done with it already.

Maybe there's a big insurance payout.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:12 | 6933785 7.62x54r
7.62x54r's picture

The Bakkan frack oil plays are paying off, and we now have a glut, which is bankrupting the people who invested in it. The gulf states are holding the oil off shore hoping the price will rise.

Enjoy it while you can.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:47 | 6933971 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

No, no, no.  We do not have an oil glut we are on the far side of peak oil and supply is tight and tightening.  The price of oil is being manipulated downward much like PMs and they are monkeyhammered for the same reason-  if markets were allowed to reveal price as a function of SUPPLY and DEMAND price would have hockeysticked some years ago and oil dependent post-modern civilization would have sputtered to a halt. Isn't it amazing that gold bugs can plainly see how gold price is controlled by naked short selling, and yet not see the same con in the oil game?  

Saudi Arabia is selling oil it doesn't have; stealing Iraqi, Syrian and possibly Libyan and Yemenese oil under the smoke screen of their largesse and selling it (parking it outside Galveston) with the material support of every country that lives and breathes beholden to the petrodollarempire.  The opposition comprised of Russia, China, Iran, Syria, and possibly some silent partners, are dancing a fine line: 

hamstringing/royally fucking over the competition before THE END and beginning of the next paradigm,

While avoiding two possible extinction events:

the sudden revelation of the true status of oil reserves followed by a cataclysmic global shut down and plunge into darkness

a thermonuclear war.

East and West have the same goals.  There are, however, a few actors who will only lose in a post oil world and they are working tirelessly to reshuffle the deck.  Seen this way the actions of our leaders, which often read as scattered, illogical, venal and villainous become more or less understandable.  We literally can't handle the truth. 

Cheers.

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 04:15 | 6934056 Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Or is it a currency play because of the US FED rate hike?

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 07:59 | 6934266 cheka
cheka's picture

nothing unusual about the number of ships off of galveston.  as part of my job i look at that all the time.  the number of facilities and docks in galveston/texas city/baytown/bayport/houston/pasadena requires such.  the biggest numbers are when there's a few days of fog delay

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 09:43 | 6934563 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Isn't it amazing that gold bugs can plainly see how gold price is controlled by naked short selling, and yet not see the same con in the oil game?

Naked short selling is not the same thing as forcing down prices via glut. If your proposed shortage occurs, everyone will know at the same time. Nobody will be falsely secure in paper oil saying "there is plenty". This oil move is much more akin to "Brown's Bottom" when the corrupt then Chancellor of the Exchequer dumped Britain's gold into a bear market. It was an actual physical market force - not a naked paper lie. That is the difference that goldbugs can see.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 14:07 | 6935863 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

My main point was there is no glut.  My other point was that every state actor knows this and have a vested interest in hiding the facts in the ground.

Selling what they do not have- stealing what they need.  Keeping the plebs in line. 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 04:20 | 6934060 zvzzt
zvzzt's picture

no need for Bermuda, a big methane-earth-fart below the ship will do the trick... you can simulate the scenario at home with a rubber ducky in the bath tub and a night of beer and chili

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 11:03 | 6934960 Lorca's Novena
Lorca's Novena's picture

Funny how the 'terrorists' dont target oil tankers headin west.... maybe they are afraid of teh Bermuda Triangle.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 14:12 | 6935888 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Most turrists are sand fleas... can't swim.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:36 | 6933701 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

With interest rates at zero the carry cost of inventory is.... near zero.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:58 | 6933863 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

All they had to do was end QE and prices collapsed

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 09:56 | 6934623 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

Didn't congress just allow the selling of crude again?

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 01:28 | 6933906 AGuy
AGuy's picture

The Emerging Market economies (Asia, brazil, India, etc) are all collapsing creating an unexpected supply imbalances. EM debt has peaked. Not only is Oil down, so are all commodites: iron ore, Copper, Cement, etc. The World is in a recession. Recall that during the 2008-2009 collapse Oil plunged into the low 1930s, Then the EM started borrowing like made and building lots and lots of infrastructure that never gets used.

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 14:15 | 6935899 nofluer
nofluer's picture

If copper is down enough, China can dig up the copper they moved from those "bonded warehouses" (so they were GOSH "empty") and put it back in the warehouses.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 01:54 | 6933932 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Next they'll be telling us Man Made Global Warming/Climate Change is a furphy.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 08:16 | 6934311 DownWithYogaPants
DownWithYogaPants's picture

Oh globull warming is a Furphy alright. ( Wild rumor purported to be true and in this case is NOT ) 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 09:22 | 6934484 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I screamed about that rip off for years. Communication with people in power resulted in no responses.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:16 | 6933631 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

1. No it's not the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

2. You might wish to change your name after North Carolina kicks your ass in Jan.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 07:05 | 6934190 Chia-Pet
Chia-Pet's picture

Did you wave at Captain Phillips?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:52 | 6933327 Tarzan
Tarzan's picture

So we have Tankers lined up across the ocean waiting to import their oil,

and Congress responds by lifting the ban on exporting oil and gas?

If the glut of oil and gas in the States is so huge that we need to export it, why are we importing so much that tankers are queued up across the Atlantic waiting to unload?

Oil should be more like $10 a barrel, but then the tree huggers would have an aneurysm seeing all the gas guzzling SUV and Pickup trucks Americans run to buy every time the gas prices drop.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:18 | 6933638 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

This is ZH!!   THINK OUT OF THE Box people!!

Lake Mead is going to dry up, we can use it as the largest US Oil Storage facility!!...and we simply convert the existing water infrastructure to oil, so we can get it to the refineries in California.  BOOM!      

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:35 | 6933827 Four chan
Four chan's picture

bingo

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 01:30 | 6933908 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

Let them drink Oil ?

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 05:45 | 6934116 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

And when the lake is full, just a spark and BOOM it's empty really quick.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:49 | 6933312 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Laden or unladen?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:55 | 6933576 The Pope
The Pope's picture

I don't know th--aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:50 | 6933708 Diottica
Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:08 | 6933773 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Bin Laden

FORWARD OILY SOVIET!

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 01:01 | 6933869 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Considering it's going from the US to EU, it was laden. The US exports distillates. The EU imports distillates. 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:04 | 6933381 SixIsNinE
SixIsNinE's picture

i just saw $1.76 / gallon here in Colorado today = hard to believe

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:38 | 6933510 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Filled up with $1.659 for regular today in Tyler, Texas.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:02 | 6933593 franzpick
franzpick's picture

In the emerging collapse of world trade, manufacturing and personal consumption, we will sooner than later see 99c gas at the pump. Amazing - 2-digit gas to 2-digit gas - in one generation.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:49 | 6933849 acetinker
acetinker's picture

In LA (Lower Alabama) where I was raised, there used to be "gas wars".  Lowest prices I recall were .299 for regular, and .329 for hi-test.

Mama's '58 Caddy ran better on hi-test.  For Daddy's '56 210 wagon, it didn't much matter.

Mama worked for the Corps of Engineers, Daddy was a flightline mechanic, and we were NOT wealthy.  This was in the '62-'65 time period. Daddy was able to build race cars, though.  They ran on either av-gas (~120 octane) or methanol (not ethanol) and that shit was really expensive, at .599 and an even dollar, respectively.

I feel like Archie Bunker.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 03:03 | 6933995 ebear
ebear's picture

"I feel like Archie Bunker."

As long as you don't look like him you'll be fine.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:22 | 6933804 PavlovPup
PavlovPup's picture

1.16 a liter here on Vancouver Island. just under four of those to a gallon.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 01:02 | 6933871 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

$1.89 in Dallas for some reason it popped up 10 cents the past couple of days while oil prices and wholesale gasoline prices have been dropping

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 06:06 | 6934139 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

It was $1.70 here in KY last week, jumped to $1.90 over the weekend.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 07:13 | 6934200 Chia-Pet
Chia-Pet's picture

I filled up my Prius for a dollar.

It was 8/10 full because I didn't drive much last month.

At least I got that going for me.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 12:12 | 6935337 detached.amusement
detached.amusement's picture

just as long as you dont think it drives like a ferrari, like the other 60% of prius drivers

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:16 | 6933953 steveharless
steveharless's picture

Gas is still 2.39 a gallon in las vegas

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 10:41 | 6934848 Footprint
Footprint's picture

We are paying 2.90 a gallon for regular, 3.05 for premium down here in México... 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 08:05 | 6934284 bmr22
bmr22's picture

Most of the stations in SWVA raised their price from $1.79 to $1.89 I was like WTF oil has gone down $5 or more in the last couple of weeks and gas goes up. it must be Christmas travel price gouging

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 09:42 | 6934561 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

$1.71 consistently in Gloucester/Williamsburg, VA area now.  Richmond area is about $1.80.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:58 | 6933046 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

I'm not sure, but i'm happy to do some serious  investigation. Just provide a link and I'm onto it...

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:25 | 6933963 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

What do you mean?  He isn't working for this site anymore.

 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:31 | 6932921 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

A la Million Dollar Bonus - blast from the past.

" But it only costs five bucks to dig it out of the ground. "

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:35 | 6932944 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

I believe that was Mathman.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:49 | 6933007 bonin006
bonin006's picture

also referred to as methman

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:51 | 6933018 The Pope
The Pope's picture

For 4 bucks, I'll dig a hole & bury it back 4 ya!

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:30 | 6933479 erg
erg's picture

A nuissance metal he called it. Could barely mow your lawn for fear of wrecking the blades.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:04 | 6932787 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

Oil is going to be cheaper then water.

In all reality below 20 is possibility

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:09 | 6932816 max2205
max2205's picture

Already is

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:33 | 6932923 OrangeJews
OrangeJews's picture

Here we go!

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:37 | 6932950 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

 “The idea is to keep tankers on the water as long as you can and try to find a stronger market.”
   
 
                                 …  Mars ?
 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:28 | 6933815 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

When keeping it afloat ('scuse the pun) costs more than they will make from the sale, all that oil will get dumped in the water.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:09 | 6933108 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

At my nearest station, gas is $1.69/gal., and inside they offer a one gallon jug of H20 FOR $1.99

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:18 | 6933640 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

paid $1.74/gal for 93 octane premium in Round Rock TX today... top tier, too (Shell), not cut rate stuff... yes folks, _premium gasoline_ can be had cheaper per gallon than water these days...

the scary part is, it's going to go down more...

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:37 | 6933703 DC Exile
DC Exile's picture

Not in California.

There seems to be a floor here of about $2.95 pg in LA

and $3.10 in San Diego.

Water - ironically - is still cheaper per gal here in SoCal. lol

I hope you are right.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:05 | 6933768 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

Same in Oregon..gas about 2.45 per gallon average. They hate us.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:21 | 6933800 Dungeness
Dungeness's picture

1.61 a gallon in Louisiana

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 03:21 | 6934014 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

1.67 here in Pasadena, TX probably cheaper if I look around

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 06:59 | 6934184 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

hey neighbor i went to sam rayburn

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 09:21 | 6934480 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

Same in Seattle.
It is the fucking faggot statists on the Left Coast that are causing this through high taxes.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:24 | 6933959 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

Tree huggers have to pay much more for gas because your legislature insists on having a different mix of gas than anywhere else in the world.

Its the same logic that gets you massive central A/C hollywood mansions, that run on electricity generated in Canada.

its the same logic that causes people to plant lawns in a desert, not build any desalinization plants, and then wonder how come there is a drought.

California has too many PhDs, not enough (un?)common sense.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:05 | 6932793 rapetrain
rapetrain's picture

Vlad & Co. is working on accelerated depreciation and retirement of oil-producing assets in Syria to help stabilize prices.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:07 | 6932804 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

But the price of gas will only go down a quarter.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:19 | 6933955 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

The enviro-terrorists are already fantasizing about all the gas taxes they will extort from us...

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:17 | 6932853 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Rumor has it Ford is tooling up to bring back the Excursion..

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:27 | 6932896 Surveyor4Pres
Surveyor4Pres's picture

They can keep it (out of production) for all I care.  I will NEVER buy a FORD.  Too many years as a surveyor driving Ford POS's that broke down every day.

Funny thing was that at the end of the day, all the crew chiefs would climb into their foreign models, after having driven American crap (bought by the survey companies) all day long.

A GMC truck was the only reliable American-made 4WD that I ever drove in my 17 years as a surveyor.  Isuzu trooper kicked ass all over the landfills and muddy Illinois jobs.

Nope.  I'll stick with my 2015 Toyota Sequoia Limited, thank you.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:58 | 6933047 29.5
29.5's picture

cool story bro

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:42 | 6933833 Bro of the Sorr...
Bro of the Sorrowful Figure's picture

hey! my stories are usually way better than that. typically involving coke binges and lots o' hookers

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:01 | 6933370 fencejumper
fencejumper's picture

As soon as Japan came out with a larger truck I jumped on it in 2000: a Toyota Tundra Limited 4x4 V8. 15 yrs old and still working as hard as ever off road, towing or giving a comfortable cruise into town. I've thought of buying a new one but can't stand the styling.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 09:07 | 6934437 Ace Ventura
Ace Ventura's picture

+1 Toyota should fire all their truck style-designers. The Tacoma is OK, but the Tundra is a ghastly-looking thing. I've often said if Dodge stylists (Ram, Charger, Viper, etc) would go work for Toyota....they would make the best-looking most reliable vehicles on the planet.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:07 | 6933400 SixIsNinE
SixIsNinE's picture

FORD cargo vans are Excellent vehicles.  

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:12 | 6933781 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

Nice to hear you say that. We have a 2001 GMC 4x4 that has never let us down, ever, during massive snowstorms and the worse ice events. We drove around Hummers stuck on the road.
I love that truck.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:29 | 6932911 Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

HA! We Amish laugh at you foolish English. FOOLS that worship paper wealth.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:37 | 6932955 Reichstag Fire Dept.
Reichstag Fire Dept.'s picture

Suddenly, out of nowhere, the Amish buy up all the US debt and own the United States. :D

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:53 | 6933026 Joe Sichs Pach
Joe Sichs Pach's picture

Or the Albanians!

 

Watch out for Martin Shkreli.  His insanity is on full display in this odd interview:  http://hiphopdx.com/interviews/id.2825/title.martin-shkreli-plans-to-bail-out-bobby-shmurda 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:51 | 6933316 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Suddenly, out of nowhere, the Amish buy up all the US debt and own the United States. :D

Ever been to a land auction in Lancaster County?  You're statement isn't too far off.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:17 | 6933954 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

The Amish have a good eye for value, don't think they would buy junk bonds priced as though they were "risk free" (risk free according to the folks who think 10% tuition hikes every year are reasonable)

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:16 | 6933428 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Tell your daughters to peddle faster. Your modem is running slow.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:51 | 6933562 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

ISIS requested the Excursion specifically?

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:30 | 6932908 upWising
upWising's picture

From the website of the City of Monahans, Texas, in the heart of the Permian Basin:

""The town grew rapidly after the opening of the nearby Hendrick oilfield in 1926 and was incorporated in 1928.  In January of 1928, Shell Oil Company constructed a million barrel tank to relieve the markets' glut of oil.  Once completed, the tank was immediately filled with oil.  The tank covered eight acres of land and its capacity was 1,084,000 barrels.  The tank was only used once then abandoned due to the tank leaking. ""

Nothing really changes.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:43 | 6933279 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

Interesting- the oil glut just before the stock market crash!

The song remains the same.

We never saw it coming.

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:08 | 6933775 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Two things. Fisrt looking at the stupid Fed rate hike today because of an expanding economy does not match up with supremely low oil and commodity prices. It shows that the Fed (and government) is lying or cannot read any tea leaves whatsoever.

Second, I believe they often sell fuel enroute. Commodity traders correct me, if necessary. While it is still bad they turned around I believe it is common for tankers to sail and be sold on the way to general destinations. These could have been resold in the USA if that is the case.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:15 | 6933952 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

They did not hike rates today "because the expanding economy"

Whether you believe the official economic statistics or not, those statistics have shown the economy expanding since 2010. If expanding economy was the reason, the Fed would have raised rates back then.

Just because the talking heads on Bloomberg/CNBC say they know the reason, doesn't make it true.

The best trading opportunities come from the "slam dunk" certainties spewed by people who majored in "communications".

.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:32 | 6932929 warsev
warsev's picture

oil is going to 5$ a barrel.

Maybe but not likely. The game was and is for the Saudis to drive the US shale operators and the Russians out of the business. Those pesky shale operators have been tougher than expected, but they can't survive this indefinitely. Once they go under the Saudis, with OPEC following, will turn back their valves and force the price back up.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:55 | 6933037 11b40
11b40's picture

If they can.  I don't think Russia is quite finished with the Saudi's.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:12 | 6933123 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

The House of Sod will either be unrecognizable in its current state within (5) years, or long overthrown both.  Take that to the bank with .001% interest...

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 10:45 | 6934868 Footprint
Footprint's picture

Correct me if i'm wrong: I think you have seen the Houthi-Yemen situation to arrive at that conclusion.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:59 | 6933053 Serfs Up
Serfs Up's picture

Those pesky shale operators have had their hedges mainly burn off in this quarter.  They are now almost all  operating naked.  With oil at $35, they are toast.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:10 | 6933944 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

$5 oil is not just **UN**likely, its a stupid fantasy.

The US dollar isn't worth what it was when oil was priced there, and oil workers are not going to work for minimum wage.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:34 | 6932934 3Wishes
3Wishes's picture

Detroit will re-open Gas guzzelers for everyone. 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:43 | 6932980 stant
stant's picture

God is great! I get my 428 cobra jet back . 6 miles to the gallon with the double pumper 780 holly. 12 with 730 single

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:20 | 6933163 valjoux7750
valjoux7750's picture

I  dont always beat mustangs but when i do its in a four door luxursy sedan!

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:40 | 6933516 10mm
10mm's picture

You old fuck. Miss my 396 SS.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:46 | 6933546 db51
db51's picture

Allahua Akbar......428 Cobra Jet!      

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 07:18 | 6934206 Chia-Pet
Chia-Pet's picture

You typed all that with just one hand. Impressive.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:49 | 6933009 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Iran able to produce oil at $1 per barrel
14 December 2015, Tehran (MNA)
http://en.mehrnews.com/news/112794/Iran-able-to-produce-oil-at-1-per-barrel

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:14 | 6933422 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Production cost has little to do with the break-even point for petro kleptocracies. 

It's the oligarchs' rakeoffs and the social welfare budget that establishes where they can break even.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:06 | 6933940 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

And monkeys will fly out of your butt, sleep with Madonna and cars will run on magic beans.

Oil rig workers are not going to work for $15/hr like Walmart greeters, especially if Walmart greeters get that much.

If the Walmart greeter forgets to greet you, you'll get by.

If the oil rig worker messes up, you get BP's Deepwater Horizon.

You keep day dreaming about $5 oil, and Obama will keep flying Airforce One back and forth to Hawaii at 300K gallons of magic beans each leg

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 06:11 | 6934145 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I think you are overvaluing the cost of workers in oil production.

Fri, 12/18/2015 - 22:06 | 6941662 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

Think you are vastly overstating the value of bureaucrats in Washington

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 04:29 | 6934068 Dugald
Dugald's picture

 

In Australia we are STILL being ripped off on fuel prices......and our Politicians look the other way!

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 08:30 | 6934349 vollderlerby
vollderlerby's picture

And the assfucking of the middle class will continue.  Still paying $2.79 for a gallon of Diesel up north.  Cheaper in neighboring states, but around here we're getting fisted.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:01 | 6932770 Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

And I thought this was related to the Bermuda Triangle--Damn

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:06 | 6933066 CPL
CPL's picture

Nope, it's way weirder than that.  Notice what's missing yet? -chuckle-

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:50 | 6933561 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

the truth is out there...

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:01 | 6932771 Ms No
Ms No's picture

War can burn a lot of diesel. 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:41 | 6933267 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

That was during WWII. Today it burns alot of jet fuel. Even the Abrams tank uses jet fuel.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:21 | 6933447 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Jet fuel is essentially diesel. Just a little more refined.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:22 | 6933653 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

they'll run on coal/water mix if they have to... I laugh when people make fun the the Abrams using a turbine engine, that sucker will burn _anything_ to keep that tank moving...

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 11:47 | 6935225 Arnold
Arnold's picture

The thing it burns best is money.

But better to have them and not need them.....etc.

 

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/sustaining-the-m1-abrams-us-army-put...

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 22:57 | 6933581 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

yessir - "War can burn a lot of diesel."

We would be in trouble if it wasn't all low sulphur diesel.

Baby Seals drive low sulphur Abrams M1A2s ftw!

If you fact check me you hate Grandmas and puppies. And Chevy. And GE Capital. And Ally Financial. And Blythe Masters. And Jamie Diamond. You are a haterz for even reading this.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 02:44 | 6933980 trader1
trader1's picture

...on american soil

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:01 | 6932772 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Peak oil right? Hahahaha.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:09 | 6932815 Ms No
Ms No's picture

We are lifiting the 40 year export ban and we are importing over 7 million barrels a day after "the shale miracle".  Peak oil or not the US is screwed medium to long term.  Thinking that this situation will be around forever is short sighted and it is quite possible that we will never see anything like this again. 

We were already screwed for energy importing oil like we do, now they really screwed us and just think.. that law would never have been passed without the "shale miracle" and Saudi oversupply.

 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:33 | 6932931 secretargentman
secretargentman's picture

If only there were a way to stockpile crude oil...

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:38 | 6932959 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

yeah, right?  Like if we only had places to store all this oil somewhere.  I guess it's too expensive to build storage tanks for all our oil.  Too bad we don't have some kind of ability to store it naturally in the ground somewhere like in big deposits where it could sit until it was actually needed.  Damn...I'm totally outta idears.  Maybe some fancy engineering dudes can figure out what to do with that stuff. 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:54 | 6933028 bonin006
bonin006's picture

I heard the US government has such a place already, but they are waiting for oil to return to $140 a barrel before they fill it up.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:21 | 6933161 Mr.BlingBling
Mr.BlingBling's picture

Edit:  moved

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:01 | 6933590 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

Wing Wing...

https://www.memecenter.com/fun/1711565/wing-wing-wing-herro

I wun a salt dome in south texas. We need to talks.

Signed,

Great great Grandson of the Rockefucker trust shell corp now owned by British Petroleum.

 

Oh wait - they are all full!. NVM!

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 00:11 | 6933780 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I believe long ago we establsihed the "strategic reserve" in Lousiiana. We never filled it up and often released small portions to try and keep oil prices down.

Soooo, maybe it is a good time to fill it up? Of course that takes planning.

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 08:35 | 6934365 vollderlerby
vollderlerby's picture

We add to the Strategic reserve when oil is at 150 or higher.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:42 | 6933277 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

It's of no use unless you can also refine it

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 01:58 | 6933934 Barrack Chavez
Barrack Chavez's picture

Obama and Speaker Ryan are ***SELLING*** oil out of the SPR to offset part of their latest spending spree.

Not being funny; that really is their "plan"

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:35 | 6932945 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Refiners import 7 million barrels a day, but then they ship it out as diesel or gasoline or jet fuel.  America doesn't need those imports.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:53 | 6933027 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Refiners need those sales of product or they shut down. Without sales they are dead. Either way the Refineries will go bankrupt.

 

It is not the price decline that kills you. It is that whipsaw that happens due to lack of capacity and start up costs that will do us in. Product prices will skyrocket.

 

STABILITY is what is requried for a foundation. Without stability it is almost impossible to build anything....including economies.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:59 | 6933051 Ms No
Ms No's picture

True they ship some of it out but we will still be screwed.  They are playing a shell game and this will allow for higher prices in the future. 

 

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:17 | 6933149 FreeMoney
FreeMoney's picture

Yes.  This seems like the same sort of situation that Standard Oil pullled that resulted in the Marshal and Clayton acts.  Saudis are pricing to put our production out of business.  Then the price will get jacked up.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:44 | 6933282 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

It looks like they won't be shipping out so much anymore in the near future

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 21:45 | 6933292 azusgm
azusgm's picture

US refineries import a great deal of crude oil which is then refined and exported. The imported crude oil is not all for consumption.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTPEXUS2&f=A

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:57 | 6933749 Al Tinfoil
Al Tinfoil's picture

 IMHO, the push to allow exports of crude from the USA came from US oil producers who saw Brent oil priced at a premium to West Texas Intermediate.  The change in the law to allow exports of crude is meant to allow US producers to increase the US price to the same as the Brent price.   There never was any hope or intent to export crude from the lower 48 (maybe from Alaska, that is where I would look for action on drilling and exports). Unfortunately for the producers, while the Brent price premium used to be $20 or more, it is now only about $1.50 or so.

As to the aims of the Saudis in collapsing the oil price, I suspect it has far more to do with combatting the threat of Iranian oil exports taking international market share than an attempt to cut US shale oil production.  The Saudi move coincided with the international settlement to remove the sanctions (allegedly over Iran's nuclear plans) that prevented Iran from exporting much crude.  The removal of sanctions against Iran will allow Iran to export oil without constraints on volume.  Iran is trumpeting its low production cost ("Only $1.00 per barrel") as a warning to the Saudi bloc that Iran cannot be persuaded from increasing market share (or from military and political adventures in Syria, Yemen and Iraq) by pushing down international oil prices.  

  The Saudis are now engaged in a struggle for military, economic, and political dominance of the Middle East.  The Sunni Saudis are allied with Israel, Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE, and the USA against the "Shiite Crescent" of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (which blocks land routes from Saudi Arabia, Israel and Qatar to Turkey and then to Europe).  Russia has allied itself with the Shiites if only to protect its navy base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, but also to exert influence in the Middle East.

This is all part of a greater struggle between the "Western" bloc of the USA, Europe, and their allies against the rising Eurasian" or "BRICS" bloc for international influence.  

For decades, the strength of the US military and NATO, and the international intrigues of the CIA and State Department, have protected US business and economic interests worldwide, protected the dominance of the US dollar as the World Reserve Currency, and the dominance of world finance by the IMF, World Bank, Bank of International Settlements, Wall Street and the City of London operating with the USD as the benchmark and mainstay of all international trade and financial arrangements.  

The PetroDollar Arrangement, engineered by Kissinger and Nixon after the US closed the Gold Exchange window in 1971, was a major support for the dominance of the USD and a major force enabling the massive Dollar printing and the increases in credit and debt creation that have sustained the Western economies.  But the PetroDollar Arrangement is under threat.

The nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia, and the "BRICS" have been developing international trade and financial arrangements that exclude the USD.  Many European nations, and even Australia and Canada, have entered into arrangements to allow trade in Chinese Yuan or Russian Rubles.  There are even hints that China and Russia have been stockpiling Gold in allow them to issue Gold-backed currencies and drive the USD into ruin. Iran has been reported as selling oil to China and India for Yuan and Rupies.  

The acceptance of membership in the new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank by the UK, Austria, Australia, New Zealand and other US allies has not been welcomed by the USA, and is seen as a sign of further trouble for the future of the USD as World Reserve Currency.

The USA sees their "Full Spectrum Dominance" in peril as the Eurasian bloc matures its political, trade, financial, and military ties to the exclusion of the US bloc.  This goes a long way to explain the US motivation in using Ukraine and NATO to stir up trouble at Russia's western borders, and in persuading the EU nations to engage in a sanctions war with Russia, which was the EU's fastest-growing trade and investment partner up to February 2014 – the USA wanted to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia.  The USA "Pivot to Asia" is meant to shore up the USA's alliances with Japan, S. Korea, Australia, NZ, and other nations in the area that see the rising influence and power of China as a threat.

It is noteworthy that Saddam Hussein was tolerated as leader of Iraq until he started selling oil to Europe for Euros, and Moammar Gaddafi of Libya was tolerated until he pushed for African nations to trade oil for a new Gold-backed currency to be called the "Dinar".  Assad in Syria was to be deposed since he was allied with Iran and blocked Saudi and Qatari plans to build pipelines across Syria, and provided a land bridge from Iran to Iran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.  

The world is fast devolving into 2 major camps - the US-led camp and the Eurasian/BRICS camp.  The US empire is under threat and some pundits say that we are witnessing the death throes of the US empire in its multiple creations of chaos.

 

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 04:44 | 6934078 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 Al Tinfoil for the splendid recap

"The world is fast devolving into 2 major camps..." is, imho, a bit too simple

until recently, we had one camp, one leadership, one country immune to diplomatic or economic pressure

now this tide has turned

the devolution into two camps, as in the Cold War, might still happen, but it is more likely that we return to multiple, interlocking camps

and recent events reinforce this probability

Thu, 12/17/2015 - 12:21 | 6935385 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

Good stuff!++++ and I'm looking at the 14/1 voting and scratching my head?

What oh what could drive the 1? fat finger? or .gov shill?

I vote .gov shill that can't show up to the conversation.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:10 | 6932821 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Yes.  This is what happens when demand is crushed by an economy stagnated by high prices among other things.  See "The Devil's Bushel" er, Barrel.  

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:23 | 6932882 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Demand was crushed by debt saturation.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 20:27 | 6932899 Freddie
Freddie's picture

1. European fuel demand has died because zio-Merkel the banksters zio stooge decided to turn Europe muslim?

2. Those tankers were going to pickup ISIS/ZATO?ZWO stolen oil but Putin sort of cut off that business.

Wed, 12/16/2015 - 23:24 | 6933665 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

peak oil and peak demand were playing a game of chicken, peak oil blinked first... simple as that...

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