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Unchanged 2016 Fed Funds Median "Dot" Signals Fed Expects 4 Rate Hikes In 2016
There was much expectation that the Fed's announcement would be a Dovish hike based on a reduction in the 2016 median dot, however the Fed did not do that, and instead while the Kocherlakota negative dot was removed, the FOMC kept the median 2016 fed funds rate at 1.4% for year end, suggesting 4 rate hikes during 2016 and that the market is underestimating the pace of rate increases.
Where there was some dovishness was in the 2017 year end median FF, which was reduced from 2.6% to 2.4%. This can be seen in the compared dot plots.
Additionally, what is perhaps even more surprising is that while the Fed did boost its 2016 year end GDP forecast, it cut the median core PCE forecast from 1.7% to 1.6%, suggesting that the deflationary forces continue to prevail aside from the "transitory" impact of oil.
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Dots fulla shit as they say in Germany.
How will this affect us? Well, I don't think anyone knows, this is uncharted territory.
Here's my guess (highly educated guess). The business cycle will contract even more, stocks will get hit. Company stock buybacks will cease. Commodities will keep going down....dollar will go up, for a short time. Real Estate is about to get more expensive nominally, while house prices will take a big decline. Layoffs will happen even faster. Anyone with a lot of debt is going to be in real trouble. I may have to move into my trailer.....hard to say. I think they will reverse course when this takes effect and then go negative rates and announce qe4. Meanwhile more false flags as they ramp up the NWO.awww, lookid all dem xmas tree dot graphs, santa put death by interest in ur stokkingz lulz
There is no real inflation in sight, so these are just politically motivated decisions to advance the agenda......
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/as-events-spiral-out-of-control-its-time-to-take-a-closer-look-at-agenda-2030-video-2472972.html
Posted twice by error!
All part of the illusion. Working fine so far...
Invert that yield curve Janet, I dare ya.
^^^
exactly dr. people thought derivatives lit the fuse in 2007-2008; was raising rates multiple times between 2004-2006. the derivatives were the dynamite. raising rates were the detonator. IF they raise rates 4 times this year, inside of 1-2 years, all this junk/high-yield will blow the fuck-up based on 2 things IMO:1. oil prices will have zero shot at heading north of $40 where 35% of the junk bonds created the last 7 years need it and 2. she will cause a credit crisis across all junk due to lowered revenue streams. oh, and all those buy-backs & borrowing to issue dividends will go away up another 75bps. so im with u, PLEASE do it. wud be friggin histerical.
Well this should be really good for HY Bonds, oil prices and multinationals, and its only 1/4 of 1 percent. QE4ever should be right around the corner unless of course GS and JPM are short the market or long puts.
Yellen: "I think it's a myth that expansions die of old age"
That's a real quote from the press conference, let's take a shot a retort...
Facts are a myth. Reality is a myth. Numbers are a myth.
ZeroHedge. Please never make fun of Gartman again. Your website went dark at exactly 2pm. The biggest choke job I have ever seen. I am sorry I can no longer justify me wasting my time coming here daily. Embarrassing doesn't begin to start how that looked. To say nothing that today has turned into another come and go day of absolute NOTHING.
Yellen hasn't cried wolf too many times. ZeroHedge has. That's what today has proved. Peak ZeroHedge.
^ I hate typing the above words. But after 5 years and 5 weeks , I have the right to do just that.
Nobody said this would be easy. Some people will not make it to the end (crash).
I'm just here since roughly 3 years, so I'm still good...
You have fun on CNBC and buying the eff-ing dip!
see you again tomorrow
Those dots kinda look like christmas trees.
@seasmoke - why do u think the site crashed?
here's a hint - majority of people tracking financial markets flood this site because they trust it more than say, the other guys who have see their "ratings" go the same direction as the labor force participation rate.
as for your gartman comment, i do believe he said SELL ALL THE STOCKS about 400 points ago (lower) in his latest bang-on prediction along with the fed forecasts.
If your accredited and domiciled in another jurisdiction you'ld probably like these guys.