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Investors Lose Faith - Slumping Stocks Give Up All Yellen Gains
It appears the "what the market missed" that we detailed earlier - This sets the Fed on a collision course with the market because "with the market pricing fewer hikes than the Fed suggests, someone is going to end up being wrong," - is starting to filter out to the mainstream. Despite exuberant buying in FANGs, the broad market indices have retraced the post-Yellen exuberance as bond yields fade, hinting at the market's growing realization that this could be a policy error.
Why are we selling off? Simple - Gartman "went modestly long of equities" because "he really had no choice."
All we know is that the trend remains upward and it was for that reason that although we were cautious and recommended openly that it was wise, ahead of the Fed’s decision, to become neutral of equities (a position obviously we wish we had not taken, with the benefit of hindsight), we did not and would not recommend being short of the equity market.
As we have said for years, and shall say as long as we are able to write TGL on a daily basis, in a bull market there are only three positions that one can have: Aggressively long of equities; modestly long of equities, or neutral of them. As of earlier this week, ahead of the Fed meeting, we advocated neutrality. Now we have to suggest the middle course once again. We’ve really no choice.
Fed Gains Gone...
Of course, some idiots just can't help themselves... NFLX +5% post-Fed!!??
Who could have seen that coming?
And HYG is giving is back fast...
Of course, with OPEX looming, the machines will do all in their power to defend key levels before tomorrow's open... but after that... what happens next.
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The week isn't over yet.
Too soon, ZH, too soon. Don't call anything yet.
Kevin's got to sleep sometime
"Investors"? What investors?
Corporate buy backs, leveraged with low rates, and Algos reading fake headlines is the only thing levitating the "Market".
The party is over....
I really wish they'd stop using the term POLICY ERROR to describe lifting rates off of zero. The POLICY ERROR was artificially forcing them down and keeping them down in the first place.
EMERGENCY FED PRESS CONFERENCE in 3, 2, 1
ummm, hi, we at the Fraud would like to say that we were just kidding about that rate hike.
we meant, a rate cut!!
Markets can resume their ass-scent now.
gartman went long? nobody told me. waa!
He was neutral, I believe. Very unhelpful.
Has Gartman ever been just neutral, without any mention of being modestly long or short? What happens then?
You mean "partly cloudy" economic weatherman Gartman? Bring the umbrella.
I heard three NFLX shows were in the top 10 list of Google searches.
If the millenials search for it in etherspace, it must be worth something!
Big correction coming soon..
No faith in PMs either. World's most crowded trade getting crowdeder. We're gonna need a bigger monorail.
What's up with Gold?
Gold went up, and held it's gains all night until the early morning billion-dollar 17 point smackdown.
If part of the reason for the rate hike was fear of losing control of gold, abd wanting to supress the gold prices with interest rake hikes instead of the smackdowns, that failed.
do you think that's air you're breathing ?
The Feds must be breathing nitrous oxide ('laughing gas') if they think their credibility has been raised any. And this bit with Au is just nutso. Why make it possible for an even greater imbalance in gold holdings favoring Russia and China when it's well known the Russians and Chinese (and Hindus!) are buying out the stockpiles? How long can COMEX stay in business when the price has dropped so precipitously and their actual stock is at a 300 to 1 ratio? Paying out in fiat USD, despite its supposed 'strength' coming from this 'blip' of an increased Fed rate is still paying in fiat. Something really weird is going on, here.
Just looked at my gold and silver, nothing seems to be wrong with it.
My stack wants new friends to join them for Xmas.
Just as I predicted. Fed raises, we have a "fool's rally" for a bit, then BOOM! How fortunate that the banks have two long weekends coming up to benefit them and their reserved loot.
The Amerikkkan Dream: Stay asleep to believe it.
There is no boom. Stocks are just algorithmically trading with oil.
You would think that just one time he could make the right call. How is it possible to be wrong 100% of the time?
Yellen changed her color scheme, no black. She must be really upbeat about finally "making the decision"
http://static01.nyt.com/images/2015/12/17/upshot/17up-yellen/17up-yellen...
whew, saw 'upshot' in the url and was scared to click on it. I didn't want an upskirt photo of Mr. Yellens JNK.
what's wrong with all your selling fuckers? the rate hike fixed everything - get with the fucking program
Me thinks someone is confused.
The usdx has retraced back to the 61.8% Fibi of its Dec 3rd-Dec 15th selloff. That should be a nice boost on top of higher rates for emerging markets and US exports.
Heavy sarc/
Gartman does it again!
Bad policy?
Baloney.
The bad policy happened after Lehman went down years ago.
Instead of keeping interest rates where they were, and allowing the bad trades and debt to flush out of the system, they've kicked the can uphill so far that now its going to be worse than what it would've been.
NO, they had to game the system for the benefit of the uber rich and big bank cartels and make them whole on their bad bets, something none of us would've had the privilege of getting.
I say screw em.
The market going bad or good doesn't effect me anymore, in fact, getting the market where it NEEDS to be, allowing for proper price discovery, is what will be beneficial to all in the long run.
...aaaaand, it's GONE!
Another early morning RUT short via TZA, my boat fully loaded, but closed out just before 11:00. Thought we could see some backing & filling thru noon turns out I was quite a bit early (dang it!), but this week's spiky action made tight stops after any solid proitable hourly bar prudent -- or so I thought ...
There may be another short-entry after a post-Europe retrace, but in any event it's so nice to see intraday trading back after a mostly shitty Nov and early Dec. Pre-OPEX usually bites all week, but the post-Yellen peel-off has been fairly reliable. Good luck out there, fellow traders ...
The Fed needs to raise the rates to try and exit from its moves made in 2008-9. Here's a good backgrounder on the problems the Fed has created and why they need to unload the $4.1 trillion of MBSs and Treasuries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jt377DV2BKs
It looks like the market is puking today on the realization that the Fed is removing up to $1 trillion in desperately needed liquidity from the market. If the market closes below the 50 MDA this week, then we'll see a bigger move down before the end of the year. The Fed is ready to stimulate according to ole Yeller in her press conference, if there is a downturn. At that point the markets will require massive stimulus to turn them around, and the Fed will complete the WTF move of the century.
amusing...........the manipulation of the markets goes on
the smart sheepies stand in the field and ponder in wonder while their wild eyed brethren rush to eat the new sowed yellen field.....then giggle quietly among themselves when the next day the yellen sheepies have a tummy ache .....
I'm so freaking mad at myself now. I had bought VXX calls right after the release with a sky high premium. If only I had waited till towards the end of the day :( I'm still not in the damn balck.... crazy how a couple of hours change it.
At least now, folks have woken up and the algos are going in the right direction. Let's keep this going into tomorrow evening.
never short a fed day, before, during, or after until 3:58 pm, it's all window dressing to give the illusion that these fucking kikes know what they're doing
trust me, i learned the hard way many times.
me too :'(
And I panicked and sold them yesterday afternoon on the headfake high...
I suck at this damn game.
Buy high sell low :'(
Looks to me like just
buy the rumor, sell the news
trading and profit taking to dress up profit reports before end of year.
WAY TOO SOON to conclude anything about CHANGE in investor confidence in FED, which was always low.
Policy error? Policy error? The creation of the Federal Reserve was a gigantic policy error for all but the banksters.
Investors lose faith... in gold
thank god for obaminablecare. the only companies that will make money this year are in biotech.