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American Tourism In The Age Of Terrorism: A Surprising Finding
Submitted by Salil Mehta of Statistical Ideas
Travel Post-ISIS
It’s enjoyable just to think about how Americans create their travel itineraries. Planning such an adventure generally encompasses factors such as whether the trip will be exciting, rewarding, relaxing, and safe. Ideally, no part of the globe should be excluded for tourism based upon these factors. But now we have had an obvious rise in global terrorism, in the past couple of years. Americans have been more startled than ever, as the Middle East has devolved into an even more unsettling place. Da'ish (ISIL) is literally butchering its way into the headlines. A Malaysian, and then a Russian, passenger planes have both been blown out of the skies. Military aircraft too have been subject to childish target practice. Refugees have been illegally washing ashore, or frantically running with suitcases across Europe and into the Americas. Wise people are often picking international flights that do not pass over these increasingly unruly skies, centered about this general part of the world. One could be forgiven to hypothesize that there would be some negative response in the travel to the Middle East. Instead as shown below, this regional hotbed continues to see a stunning record growth in passenger traffic from America. And this unusual growth stands out as the highest of any destination.
Perusing the government tourism data below, you’ll see something stimulating. When Americans pull out their passports for air travel outside of North America, from 2011-2013 (pre-ISIL), the strongest annual growth was to the Middle East. Further, instead of this passenger growth tamping down with terror concerns, the annual growth from 2013-current (post-ISIL) is also the strongest (with one of the largest changes in growth rates among all regions post-ISIL!)

This travel to the region, appears to be taking the “don’t give in to the terrorists” political jingo a bit too far. And these are not reasonably innocent places to venture. Of the about 200 independent nations that the U.S. government tracks, nearly 40 (or a generous 20%) are on the State Department’s travel warning list. See these color mapped below.
And no surprise here, there is a great overlap between the Middle East or similar countries (in red), and this official do-not-travel-to regions. In fact, 17 of nearly 22 Middle East regional countries (~77%) are on this former warning list.
Some may want to slice and dice this analysis, arguing that this former embattled segment of the Middle East could have seen a decrease, but then reallocating all of the overall explosive and diverse number of passengers to just the remaining 23% would only suggest the "friendlier" (such as Egypt or Tunisia, both of which on the top link above proves to still be perilous) segment of the Middle East saw an even more unfathomable boost. Now expressing these joint probabilities above differently, but to the same impact, we can state that nearly 11% of all countries are in the Middle East or representative region, yet ~40% of the U.S. government’s restricted travel-to list are in the Middle East (again colored red instead of blue).
Let's read some of the climactic language of the U.S. State Department warning American tourists from the visiting the Middle East:
"The Department of State continues to warn U.S. citizens against all travel ... and strongly recommends that U.S. citizens remaining ... depart immediately. ... the security situation remains dangerous and unpredictable as a violent conflict between government and armed anti-government groups continues throughout the country, along with an increased risk of kidnappings, bombings, murder, and terrorism."
Or:
"Travel ... remains very dangerous given the security situation. The ability of the Embassy to assist U.S. citizens facing difficulty, including arrest, is extremely limited. Private U.S. citizens are strongly discouraged from traveling ... to join in armed conflict."
These are not ringing endorsements. So this rush in air travel to this hazardous theater defies what one would levelheadedly expect! And so are many natural phenomenon we think about and then probabilistically analyze. Why are so many different Americans unexpectedly taken to traveling to the Middle East region? It's a perfect abnormality.
For example, we can note from varying sources (Arab-American Media, Pew Research, University of Connecticut and Brandeis University Center for Judaic Studies) that the non-North America based population from the Middle East region represents ~3.5% of the U.S. population. Yet from the absolute government travel data, travel to this region represents ~7% of the same share. So a large absolute number (~2 million) of passengers are travelling to the Middle East region, and at nearly twice what you would expect relative to the mix in Americans’ ethnic backgrounds. And travel to these hot spot ranks as the 5th most popular, of the 8 regions noted further above.
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I have a thesis to explain this. Any business with a foot print in the Middle East (including the DOD and State) suddenly have a giant headache to deal with constantly.
Moreoever, whatever holiday tourism uptick there is, I am sure is attributable exclusively to travel to Israel and Dubai.
A first class ticket to visit Syria with a full guided tour of the ancient ruins, courtecy of your ISIS representative....any takers?
The agenda rolls on.......
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/as-events-spiral-ou...
US citizens should not travel to the ME as there is a high probability that they might discover that their quiet relative, friend or neighbor was actually a CIA agent/PMC mercenary/ISIS plant.
When Sheldon Adelson starts building casino's there those numbers should DOUBLE!
It's all the Judes going over to survey the land they shall own soon. To claim ownership they must sacrifice a Muzza child on the land.
Possible explanation:
American-based sleeper cells going to the ME for training/instructions?
Mostly american tourist after ISIL are CIA agents.
You are 90% there. These statistics undoubtedly only represent US passport stampings. As such, it will include the above along with Academi (and other) mercenaries.
very good point!
See the ME now before it's all turned to glass.
You will not be turning the land that belongs to Das Juden to glass. Instead, it will be your land that is turned into glass.... by yourselves. For that is how the juw works.
"I have a thesis to explain this." -- WB7
Me too. My middle name is Danger.
William - I think your close on your thesis. I'll add to it. You have had many years of immigration. Those folks are going to travel home from time to time. In my trip to Boston recently I talked to cabbies, most from various countries in the ME. Couple of things mentioned. One is that they still want to come here and bring there families. Two they questioned the wisdom of proxy war via ISIS. They are not stupid. They view American media and talk to relatives back home in the area.
Frankly, on the latter point at this point we cannot afford to be the worlds policeman. China was promised that torch along with global reserve currency which is a blessing and eventually as we see, a bad curse for the population at least for 1/3 of the time near the end of roughly an 80 year cycle.
We dont need ME oil as much as we used to. I would prefer paying $5 gallon a gas for a couple years and eat a worse depression and disengage. Countries are starting to pay more a bit more for there own security as they should instead of the American taxpayer via our military. That is good but not nearly soon enough for my taste. I bet between Russia and the ME they still sell the oil. If not, they can piss off at this point.
What ever happened to the Merchant Marines? Ending the lobbying is the answer to most of our problems but probably will see nukes flying before that happens. And whether they are CIA, special opps, airmen or navy I dont want to see my own wasted for greed. I do know there is a legitimate energy needs discussion but I see it not as black and white but in scale and options of risk versus reward.
The inability to end lobbying and just try to afford the best temporary view so to speak. I only have the ability to hold people to account on a local level which I do and of course there is a price for that but it is MY yard at the end of the day and I do not want a slum.
I was involved in converstation the other day when someone brought up they were going on a Europe 11 day or so cruise. Half the people in the conversation expressed they had no desire to see Europe because of the immigration problems. Pretty soon, It's a small world will be differrent locations but all the people will look the same yelling Aloha Snackbar. Diversity may overplay then some day there will be no diversity.
I appreciate the sentiment. Even so, you have to know where to go. "Go native", and avoid tourist traps.
Stants travel advisory to southerners , avoid those county sized states in the north east . They are at war with everyone else trying to take over the world. That is all
I read this article and laughed... Only the Hollywierdo's and their ilk would find this attractive.
Tel Aviv is Hollywood's New Playground
I can think of 1000 other places I'd rather spend my money.
The rumors are that the debauchery scene is unrivaled there. Thailand, SF, LA NYC are all beggars in comparison. Fortunately this is only hearsay for me.
yes and the paparazzi know they won't just have their camera destroyed but may have a hand cut off or worse for taking photos uninvited.
@ Yen:
It doesn't surprise me...you can get anything there. Pay attention to the names of the people promoting Hell Aviv in that article.
Jews have stolen almost every aspect of "their" culture from the hated goyim and claimed these things as their own. One glaring exception would be the modern art movement...which churns out the ugliest goddamned shit you ever saw.
Of course, prices for Marc CChagal's or Leroy Nieman's crap are high...it's usually Liebowitz's or Lowenstein's doing the buying.
Allah Ahkbar!
Seasons greetings from the folks at Langley that are providing the free travel and accomodations to those "Americans seeking alpha"!!!
Right now I wouldn't go to Libya, Syria, Yemen or Iraq for safety reasons. I would have deep misgivings about going to Israel, but would probably go if only because I might not ever get another opportunity.
But anyplace else in the Middle East? You bet I'd go. Naturally I'd take prudent precautions. But when assessing actual risks, one can't let the very-partisan US media scare us into cheating ourselves of once-in-a-lifetime experiences. If more Americans traveled overseas, it would be a lot harder to stampede us into the wars of Empire.
It's safer and more entertaining to go to Disney's Epcot World Showcase and experience life in eleven different countries from around the globe. After you've had your fill of the culture stuff you can swing over to the Country Bear Jamboree to enjoy audio-animatronic hillbilly bears performing rollicking country music scores.
Yes, it is indeed a Small World After All. And you can get McDonalds' at any time, anywhere in that Small World. And probably Norovirus too.
I have to admit my global travel has been a lot less extensive than I'd like. Still, from what I've seen, nobody can beat America for anthropomorphic animatronic animals acting out grotesque regional stereotypes, for a fee of course.
So why would any ever want to leave America, even for a moment?
SWMNGUY is right, why go over there you can see it all at Disney Land it , it isn't cheap to go to Disney Land , but it is cheaper than going over there, ( If Disney would just build a 'Wailing Wall' there would be no need for anyone to go there), use your money to support American Culture that is how I show my Patriotism and you should too.
Besides, I've already been to Paris, Venice, New York, northern Italy, Burma, Egypt, the Caribbean, Camelot, Monaco, ancient Rome, and a couple other places I can't remember too well, and that was just one trip to Las Vegas.
And while I was there, I saw a 5' tall, 300 pound Mexican guy in a Chewbacca costume begging for spare change! I never saw that when I was in the real Rome.
LOL
Mexico is on the do not travel list?
Correct. No need to go there. They come here, to wait on you, clean your room, house, do your yard.
Hey, you forgot about: Leech your tax dollars, rape your daughter, demand more free shit, and kidnap your family.
They go as tourists, and come back as terrorists.
Or it is one giant shitload of mercenaries.
My do not fly ... Detroit Baltimore charleston LA twin cities and Chicago.
Happy Trails!
Emirates and Qatar airlines, everyone goes thru the hub.
also safest way to travel is to surround yourself with locals. Stay away from the All American Tour to Yemen.
And make sure you can quote verses from the Koran.
The explanation is simple. The high "tourist" numbers are due to military advisers being listed as tourists.
How to put boots on the ground without admitting you have boots on the ground.
They used to call themselves BlackWater, what is their latest name?
Last I heard XE "Z"
Academi is an American security services training company, originally founded in 1997 by former Navy SEAL officer Erik Prince.[2][3] Formerly known as Blackwater,[4] the company was renamed Xe Services in 2009; its current name came about in 2011, after the company was acquired by a group of private investors in 2010.[5] The new investors instituted a board of directors and new senior management, Prince retained the rights to the name Blackwater and has no affiliation with Academi. Blackwater received widespread publicity in 2007, when a group of its employees killed 17 Iraqi civilians and injured 20 in Nisour Square, Baghdad for which four guards were convicted in a U.S. court.[6][7]
Hunger game is on you Americanses bitchez!
Frankly, send all the liberal and politically correct Americans to the Middle East so they can discover the truth about what Islam really is about.
Dont forget your veil or hijab!
A 5% increase in travel to the Middle East... The author conveniently or ignorantly doesn't report the head counts actually travelling theire pre and post. I would assume they are very low levels.
"Statistical Ideas" of ommission.
Age of terrorism? WTF?
Unless you are sleeping, you must know that the war on terror is a war to generate more terror. And then use that terror to deprive you of your liberties.
So terrorism is just a mechanism to create a more perfect union of sheeple.
+1000. Not to mention relative assessments of risk. I took a bigger risk just now walking across the street than I would have traveling to most parts of the Middle East. Just like people who freak out that a neighbor owns a handgun (probably stored in a gun safe) but thinks the other neighbor's outdoor pool is great fun for all the kids. I'd rather have the swimming pool myself, but I at least understand that the handgun poses far less danger to the neighborhood kiddos.
By now all of us should be able to tell when we're being herded in a direction. Unfortunately, some of us seem to like the sensation.
It all ends with WMDs being used in Europe, Russia nuking some Muslims, and all Muslims being expelled from all Western nations.
Mass deportations are a common thing throughout history. The Muslims HAVE to go. It's us or them, either remove them from Europe or be conquered by them. Which, by the way, is exactly what they are openly stating is their intention.
Of course. For Dual Citizens. Israel is the safest place on Earth.
+1 Seasmoke. There are more dual citizen Israeli's in the goverment, than 200 Bar Mitzvahs', going on at the same time in NYC.
It might be an outgrowth of people recognizing that the news might not be valid and they need to get smarter about other countries. Finally!
You in the market for a bridge?
Wouldn't be at all surprised to find some of this counterfeit being distributed into the pocket(s) of those friendly "American" tourists traveling aborad in the ME?...
Fewer Gringo 'Merikans in Latin America? Cool, must go there: No muzzies, no obnoxious loudmouths or their spoiled brats.
Ecuador keeps looking better and better.
G.O.O.D. - A friend of mine from high school moved there many years ago. He loves it, told me nobody really lives by the clock there. Not for everybody, I see some of that here in Florida and it bugs the hell out of me trying to get things done. The argument for moving abroad is cost, a business decision if I choose it. The argument to me is that of we continue the slide into 3rd world why pay 1st world prices?
But I am staying, this is MY home. Someone has got to hold to account and I am wired that way (sometimes wish I wasnt). MY shit stinks sometimes but I do live by my yes meaning yes or no is no. And if I cant keep my word, I call in advance, apologize for my failure and ask if I can remedy a problem. Accountability deficiency is a big problem here these days.
My retirement consists of ss and what few bucks I have but my trade is easy enough I can still ply it until I am probably 80 depending on my health.
I will always keep my r e in the states unless taxed forces me to sell, but am looking for a nice place with warm weather and low cost of living to spend 4 to 6 months out of the winter and a place to relax and watch the humming birds.
I don't ask for much and can live in a hut np. Parts of Mexico is also attractive.
G.O.O.D. - Thanks for the reply. Yeah you might get a better view for the money. I cant offer any recommendations havent done enough homework for that. It is good you can do your trade anywhere and I think even working part time into old age is healthy.
I worked a lot less for a couple years, had some burnout. Problem is boredom and drinking because of it. I also do love the birds. Next weekend setting up a bird feeder and bird bath. Back north where I lived had a pair of Cardinals that turned into a big family of them. Learned a thing or two about predators, observing there nemesis the Blue Jays which I compare to sociopaths in society that steal there food instead of earning it. How the Cardinals dealt with them was useful.
Anyways, best of luck to you if you do decide to go adventuring abroad!
Colombia's a beautiful place and those Colombianas!
Just use some common sense and No Dar Papaya.
It isn't surprising how clueless Americans are. Burgahz are oblivious to anything that doesn't involve them.
Send More tourists ... the last one tasted great.
"9/11 German style"...
Obama to Merkel. Stop complaining... It was your time and your turn!!!
WHO wants to go to those hell holes anyway?
Beastly hot, smelly, filthy, uncivilized and dangerous. No thanks!
And I no longer care for 'Let Viva'** either, given the decadent/degenerate cesspool it has become.
There are tons of better places to travel to in the world.
** Anagram
My bullshit detector just went off:
"This travel to the region, appears to be taking the “don’t give in to the terrorists” political jingo a bit too far. And these are not reasonably innocent places to venture. "
And yet....
"You're 55 times more likely to be killed by a police officer than a terrorist."
In fact;
"You’re Much More Likely to Be Killed By Brain-Eating Parasites, Texting While Driving, Toddlers, Lightning, Falling Out of Bed, Alcoholism, Food Poisoning, Choking On Food, a Financial Crash, Obesity, Medical Errors or “Autoerotic Asphyxiation” than by Terrorists"
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/03/youre-55-times-likely-killed-poli...
More lies. Always lies. Nothing but lies. That is the world we live in. This is the world we have collectively created.
Enjoying it much?
Well, depends on how you define "terrorism."
The people who avoid the groid are unlikely to be killed by blacks. Those that decide to waltz through an American city at night are taking their chances.
If you don't swim with the sharks you're unlikely to be killed by one.
Same obvious truth applies to savage Mudslime murderers. Don't be near them and you can't be one of their victims. Duh.
Good point.
According to the .gov, black on white crime is over 9 times greater than white on black crime.
Same goes for all 'minority' protected 'people'.
http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race-and-violent...
These stats prove the government is lying about 'racism'.
We have a problem. Black people have been TOLD over and over again that they have a right to be angry at white people in general; that white people are responsible for their poverty and general misery, and that they deserve "reparations". It's a natural response to this kind of indoctrination, to feel that it's perfectly all right to "get your own back" by taking it from those who "oppress(ed)" you.
Funny thing, but I've notice that out here in the country it's much more laid-back. Many, many of my neighbors in this poor county in rural Virginia are black. But few of them walk around looking daggers at a middle-aged woman with greying hair (and only young ones). The black men my age and a little younger, dress neatly, speak politely, and fold their laundry like they probably learned how in the military. They clearly work for a living. One is my AWESOME plumber, who will actually take emergency calls at 7 on a Sunday morning after the pipes freeze in -0 weather.
An hour's drive away in Richmond, it's a different story. Not a man or woman among them can open their mouths without a string of obscenities. A young man I'd gone out of my way to be nice to stole my computer. (After the detectives got it back from a pawn shop I'd SPECIFICALLY asked, I got him put in jail for a couple of years. I TOLD them I was a witch, and people don't get away with screwing me). But it was the redneck whites with their loud music all hours of the day and night that actually tried to kill me.
"Toddlers"
I had a gang of toddlers threaten me just last week. Wanted my watch and wallet. Fortunately I was able to outrun them as their legs are kind of small.
One of the biggest destinations for dumb American cucks (and lots of Europeans) is Turkey. Even after you tell them about the horrific crimes against white Christians in Turkey that are committed continually. Even after you show them pictures. Even after you explain to them that Turkey is basically in the middle of a civil war right now. Even after the fucking State Department warns them not to go.
Then there are the single blond women that like to travel to Oman and other such shitholes because they like the attention.
Then there's the dumb fucks going to places like Morroco to get shot up by Muslims.
The only places in Europe still worth visiting are:
Eastern Europe (especially Poland because the Poles are dumb enough to still actually like Americans)
Alps region
Parts of Norway
Some isolated white parts of France
Stay out of the cities entirely at this point. Europe's cities are overrun with violent muslims now just like American cities are overrun with murderous negroes.
I'll say this in no uncertain terms: If you are white and you travel to Africa, South America, Central America, or any Muslim country including France, Belgium, Sweden, England, and the Netherlands - you deserve whatever happens to you.
more likely to get shot in USA...
I think they are mistaken tourist for contractors. Theres a shit load of contractors that fly to and from the middle east every day.
I guess you could call them $500 a day tourist if you want
Yup, all of our special forces and instructors must be flying United now.
congress, senate, governors etc going back and forth to israel for underage boys and girls
LMAO. That's not tourism dude, that's migration. Pretty much seems to coincide with the new Emirates routes opening up in San Fran and Houston and added capacity from the A380s. Emirates is literally dumping seat capacity on the market with a burgeoning fleet of A380s and cut-rate prices. We have, what, 5 million US mooooozlims in the US now? They're all flying back home to start dragging their extended families back to the US one-by-one.
Inshallah motherfuckers. Enjoy the long slow ride to the bottom.
Have you looked at the typical American lately? There are less Nordics and even less African-Americans and more of everyone else. A lot of these newly-minted Americans are probably just going for the jihad, or maybe to visit Mecca and earn brownie points with Allah, or to a Muslim land (Pakistan is popular ) to fetch a Muslim child bride (if she is an adult bride, she must have her own weapons - we now call that the San Bernardino Rule).
I wonder why Barry Soetoro didn't pick up a Muslim bride when he was still Barry Soetoro and visiting Pak as a young man, in violation of some travel rule that I do not pretend to understand. Maybe he wasn't into females then. Or maybe he knew he had been selected by the CIA to run for POTUS someday and Muslim doesn't play well with those essential Black voters. No, pick a dark brown, 94% (angry) black woman - with glutes powerful enough to crush a human skull. Married to a beast like that would make everyone think that he was a Alpha male - able to domesticate such a creature. The wimpy current Mayor of NYC did a similar stunt when he married an alleged "black lesbian". Wow, now that takes a lion tamer!
I didn't realize that blackwater crew had to take out visas.
Of course they do. Most of them travel under cover, although the government pays for all the paperwork.
When I worked at the CIA decades ago, rumor in the office was that the Agency must own Pan-Am, because all employees were required to use only Pan-Am for all official travel.
Hell, Triple Canopy or the Olive Grp will send you on an all expense paid vacation to the Middle East and give you a nice 200K stipend. I hear the folks at Yemen will put on a hell of a fireworks display to welcome you. Poor trigger discipline and a desire to shoot women and children, however, is a prerequisite.
These are obviously not primarily tourists. Some may be immigrants going home to visit family, but many (and they will overlap) are government functionaries and contractors travelling on the easiest-to-get short-term visas. After all, who's going to list "spying" or "updating surveillance software" on their entry applications? This area is FULL of Americans doing dirty business for the government and oil companies, but very few are going to travel on official visas.