This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
China "Suspends" Another Unofficial PMI Data Release To Make "Major Adjustment"
For the second time in two months, an economic data series that indicate drastically weak performance in China has been "suspended." Having seen Markit/Caixin's flash gauge of China's manufacturing discontinued in October (having plunged notably divergently from the government's official data), Bloomberg reports that the publishers of the alternative China Minxin PMI will stop updating the series to make a "major adjustment."
Guess which time series was just "suspended"...
Release of the unofficial purchasing managers index jointly compiled by China Minsheng Banking Corp. and the China Academy of New Supply-side Economics will be suspended starting this month, the Beijing-based academy said in an e-mailed statement Monday, about six hours before the latest monthly data were scheduled for release.
Minxin’s suspension is the second in recent months as policy makers in the world’s second-largest economy struggle to arrest a deceleration in growth. Another early estimate of China’s manufacturing sector, a flash gauge of a purchasing managers index compiled by Markit Economics and sponsored by Caixin Media, was discontinued Oct. 1.
Minxin’s PMI readings are based on a monthly survey covering more than 4,000 companies, about 70 percent of which are smaller enterprises. The private gauges have shown a more volatile picture than the official PMIs in the past year.
The manufacturing PMI declined to 42.4 in November from 43.3 in October, while the non-manufacturing reading fell to 42.9 from 44.2, according the the latest release. The factory gauge fell to a record low of 41.9 in August. China’s official PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics fell to a three-year low of 49.6 in November.
For September, the now-discontinued flash Markit/Caixin PMI fell to a six-year low, while the official PMI reading showed a modest improvement.
* * *
Because nothing inspires confidence like removing transparency of just the worst data series. We assume the "major adjustment" needed is akin to America's "double-seasonal adjustment" because how could it be possible that official figures remain so 'healthy' when every private survey (pre-discontinuation) has shown utter collapse...?
»
- 50 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Thank you Vice Public Security Minister Meng Qingfeng!
I wouldn't put 50 cents into Chinese investments.
Nor Brazil. Nor India. Nor South Africa.
Especially not Russia.
BRICS, lol...
Like they need your dollars. Pffff
I think China is ready for depression, and it ain't going to be pretty.
Hey, as bari O stated: "It's only a digital problem that can be easily rectumfied".
I've been left shell shocked at the lack of shoppers this holiday season. To the point of feeling a pit in my stomach at what I'm witnessing. Even if we pretend for a second that all brick and mortar shopping moved online, what impact will that have on the on the overall economy? Dining, gas, impulse, entertainment...etc.
A Chinese depression is a global depression. A horse is a horse of course.
ney?
yeah BRICS may be taking a beating against teh USD for now but they've been borrowing paper at no interest and building energy,agriculture, and infrastructure. What have we been doing in the US? Pumping the big banks with liquidity they are too scared to lend out and bonuses comfortable enough to keep their apathy toward any real progress? Maybe now it is less attractive in a USD dimension to invest in BRICS, but when the song ends... who are poised best for real growth? If we were bidding on a life boat on the Titanic, a ship that never sank, you'd all think I was crazy to keep taking losses on the ownership of a life boat until it became the only important thing left. Would you rather be at the finish line and learn patience? Or would you rather follow the herd toward false footsteps of narrow-sighted profit? I know that the way the financial system is geared toward growth and financial optimization (maximization of capital value) there isn't a lot of room for openmindedness or long-term vision, but rather the only choice for the bricks in the wall is the steady myopic chasing of the bottom line without concern for much else. If you think interest rates rising in the greater economic world is going to be a new thing... and that somehow the global money supply and expansion of central bank balance sheets won't continue out of neccessity... I mean clearly they will need a LOT more paper to paper over the calamity of the global economic arena... It should be obvious to anyone that that's been the only solution for years now combined with lowering interest rates... and now i guess that isn't enough so they are going to barely raise rates and hope everything magically will gel together through their "historic feats" of speculation engineering (which by definition of economic principles.... is counter-economic). Paper currencies all fail in the end, and probably debt-based paper currencies at accelerated rates when the fundamental problems of barrier-less generation of "money" are a given. How much longer can the crazy train continue on and more importantly, what will happen when the COMEX runs out of deliverable supply? I'm pretty sure the LBMA isn't exactly sitting pretty on their deliverable-to-contractual obligations ratio either (both are in backwardation = major supply shortfalls). I am sensing that price discovery with come thrusting forth with unstoppable power in the near future and if our countries continue to invest in war, security, violence, even in the name of national defense, than it seems we are spending our increasingly precious time unwisely. Perhaps a better course of action would be to invest in solutions rather than snowballing our problems, frustrations, and tensions onto one another?
Chairman say no speaky!
"All good" - just rike Yerren!
… Don’t you HATE when the worthless masses refuse to behave the way Central Planners tell them they must!
When we masses of no worth see the helicopters, we'll behave admirably. Because,we must.
The Chinese are rapidly approaching the APEX of the growth<>3x leveredcopper commodity [farce]...
Where's the MSM, with those blowhard, Holiday sales figures? It's all politics, and superfluous BS...
See some MSM Shit some MSM
" A physician dressed as Santa Claus helped kidnap and torture a stockbroker for 12 days because he believed his victim treated him unfairly in a business deal, police said Tuesday. Police found Robert J. Haye Monday night handcuffed and chained to a bed in an abandoned concrete block building on a far.."
http://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/01/03/A-physician-dressed-as-Santa-Clau...
hahahaha, it's all getting ready to implode. meanwhile xi pingpong is setting the stage for another cultural revolution. if you have any brains you will divest from china asap... obviously dont fire sale, but get that exit strategy moving. Just keep in mind that the currency is planned to drop some 20% minimum by next year, eating a loss lower than that on exit plan is the same as a gain at this point.
They could just borrow one of our fed rangers to decree it where its supposed to be
What are you talking about? There has never been any such thing as the Minxin PMI index.
The individual global governments are playing whack-a-mole more often and more publicly than ever with their financials and its just going to get more obvious and comical as things progress.
They've each dug their own graves through poor planning, execution and greed. But they've also tied a collective global rope around each other right into the globalist institutions. Now when their economies go bad they'll all get sucked together right into the next layer of the bottomless financial debt pit. And bring their tired, poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free right along with them into globalist slavery.
I'll be interested to see if or when all the shadow banking rears its ugly head on the descent. We'll see how well the IMF did on estimating shadow banking accuracy and impacts during its due diligence on China recently. Here's a slightly older analysis.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2014/02/pdf/c2.pdf
When you can't fool most of the people all of the time, you can't fool most people some of the time, and you can now no longer fool anyone some of the time, the it's time to stop reporting at all to try to fool anyone at all.
The CCP's state-capitalist central planning has failed, as will any system that is dependent upon perpetual growth of population, resource consumption per capita, profits, and capital accumulation on a finite, spherical planet.
The question is, Now what?
Historically, elites faced with challenges to their legitimacy, credibility, status, wealth, and power have more often than not chosen reaction and large-scale state violence against real and perceived "enemies", including war and mass destruction.
Chinese, Russian, oil emirate, and western elites all face similar challenges/threats to their precarious hold on credibility, legitimacy, wealth, income, and their self-perceived authority to rule and to act, violently or otherwise.
China could also suspend railroad car loading data, or simply say that railroad car loadings are less due to railroad cars are now larger, and older cars have been scrapped in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, or Turkey along with the ships that make up the BDI, thus each rail car hauls more freight, therefore, car loadings would be down.
Electricity data could also be suspended, for that could show a sign of economic weakness. Or, it also may mean that the CFL and LED light bulbs that are produced in China are being used in China for lighting, and the inefficient incandescent light bulb is becoming obsolete. And, it would also mean that appliances are more efficient, too, just like if one looks at US electricity data from the EIA, it will mention how the efficiency of refrigerators has caused a substantial reduction in power consumption since about 1975, and not the de-industrialization of the United States since formal relations with China began after 1973.
It's not like the Federal Reserve ever suspended indexes that were inconvenient, such as the M3 in 2006.
You've got a point...
Why would China want to downplay their GDP figures?
As long as cheap "toasters and batman" towels, are factored in?
Why not? All their other data is fake, just like USA.
The Room Store with 12 locations in Phoenix is closing due to Bankruptcy. Another business bites the Dust, Literally.
Who effin cares? China and its ruling Oligarchs has been bought out by the Tribe.
They will NEVER back their currency with AU. They use it only/purely as a bargaining chip to negotiate a better seat at the IMF Table. If you look at the empirical evidence all around us, how can it be anything other than that?
E.g. They have trillions of USD's, with which to buy depressed and manipulated commodities that they want or need: PM, Oil, Gas, Wheat, Copper, Iron...
And all the while their billionaires are snapping up primo residential and commercial RE for themselves. Not that kind of move you'd make, if you planned to "take down" the US or the USD.
You dreamers can keep dreaming and creaming, but I'm officially off the China bandwagon of economic reform. Don't give a damn one way or another.
FUCKING COMMUNISTS!!!
Looks like usual clueless commented on. Eheheh..
China has ONE POINT SIX BILLIONS PEOPLE. Now, sink that to your mind.. Done that?
This is a research by BRITISH institutions.
http://www.uhy.com/chinese-lead-global-growth-in-new-start-ups-but-econo...
Yeah.. China woukd sink economically??
Waaaahahahahahahahahaha...
Oh... Clueless americans...
(BTW who's NOT TAMPERING with their govt data? Seasonal Adjustments. WHAT THE FUCK IS THAT??
Like your govt NOT DOING THE SAME? Too retards to see??
I am LMAO because of all the PM cult worshipers who have been having orgasms fantasizing the collapse of the USD, US treasuries, etc and prophesizing that the great and mighty gold-loving China would superceede the fiat USA.
Clearly there is a huge overlap in PM cult worshipers and psychedelic drug usage.
Why use indices if you have fortune cookies?
...
This might be a bit off-comment but it appears after the Fed's "rate hike" was priced in the markets not a whole lot changed. If they are unable to raise rates higher due to debt repayment issues... then I would say we're at a very bullish stance on precious metals right now... If there is deflation and values go down across the board for assets the measurement of comparison will still be purchasing power and I think in these times of uncertainty and enormous counterparty risk one of the safest places to have your purchasing power invested is in real deal Au or Ag. Counter party risk is enormous and one industries shortfalls become the shortfalls of another one. On the other hand of the equation, if they expand the monetary base the dollar is devalued (which might be a good competitive stance for the dollar) but it is bullish for Au and Ag. There's a lot of pressure on mining and supply companies to be able to provide product at a profit with the prices so low and everyone knows selling paper contracts to decrease the spot prices of Au and Ag are in no way related to their actual price discovery values in real existence and usage. The fact that the COMEX is nearly out of deliverable, and that there are now nearly 300 paper contracts outstanding for every real deal troy ounce of Au... and who knows how many for Ag?... Even if asset prices decrease due to global deflationary powers there is a 300:1 rectifying inertia on the purchasing power of real deal over paper contracts... And i have no doubt that whenever price discovery happens, no matter the momentum of asset prices, upward or downward, the rectifying inertia will maintain it's magnitude increase in purchasing power of real deal over paper contract on a percentage basis. Not to mention the probably and likely earnest downward manipulation of the spot prices for Au and Ag (even if a smoking gun was "never found" - bite the hand that feeds yuh?) along with other asset and liability classes in attempts to further solidify the dam from breaking.... The fact that the dam's forces of resistance are forced to concentrate in certain areas, rather than being able to cover everything, shows that the force of the water behind the dam is quite a force to be reckoned with: with all the water spouts gushing in between the almost broken bedrock it doesn't really seem like a winning battle for those struggling to hold up the disintegrating dam which once, naiively, falsely, "ruled" as all-powerful master of natural forces. Eventually we will all have to live alongside the ingrained patterns of nature and this includes letting economics (checks and balances) run it's own uninhibited natural course. The problems and interferences with this usually rely around politics and false dictated demanded power as opposed to the omnipotence of natural rythms and movements seeking a collective equillibrium which work beyond our own comprehesion and collective genius. These powerful rhymes embolden those working in for it's cause. It has never been both more neccessary and less likely for the world to work as one in enormous cooperation to overcome this epic and novel planetary challenge. They say history not repeats, but rhymes. I hold a belief in which civilization has sprung up on Earth (and probably other planets) for ages and ages before our own primitive understanding of ourselves even begins... and that these civilizations have fallen (whith the expection of a few perhaps) for not being able to figure out the right way to do this thing called being human and living as humans. So we all play the game and hope in whichever place we have been born into, none the better than the other on the grand scale. Even the absolute wealthiest of all are but mere pawns to the everlasting sands of time. Pardon my being facetious. I guess it is it's own thing to place your bets with material gain and another to place your soulful/resonance bets with our own steady and constant bodily decline among this world of exposure, elements, wear, and gravity.