This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
"I Know Of No One Who Predicted This": Russian Oil Production Hits Record As Saudi Gambit Fails
In late October, we noted that for the second time this year, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the biggest exporter of crude to China.
Russia also took the top spot in May, marking the first time in history that Moscow beat out Riyadh when it comes to crude exports to Beijing. “Moscow is wrestling with crippling Western economic sanctions and building closer ties with Beijing is key to mitigating the pain,” we said in October, on the way to explaining that closer ties between Russia and China as it relates to energy are part and parcel of a burgeoning relationship between the two countries who have voted together on the Security Council on matters of geopolitical significance. Here's a look at the longer-term trend:
You may also recall that Gazprom Neft (which is the number three oil producer in Russia) began settling all sales to China in yuan starting in January. This, we said, is yet another sign of the petrodollar’s imminent demise.
On Monday, we learn that for the third time in 2015, Russia has once again bested the Saudis for the top spot on China’s crude suppliers list. “Russia overtook Saudi Arabia for the third time this year in November as China's largest crude oil supplier,” Reuters writes, adding that “China brought in about 949,925 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in November, compared with 886,950 bpd from Saudi Arabia.”
This is an annoyance for Riyadh. China was the world's second-largest oil consumer in 2014 and closer ties between Moscow and Beijing not only represent a threat in terms of crude revenue, but also in terms of geopolitics as the last thing the Saudis need is for Xi to begin poking around militarily in the Arabian Peninsula on behalf of Moscow and Tehran.

As we documented in "Saudis Poke The Russian Bear, Start Oil War In Eastern Europe," Riyadh has begun to encroach on Moscow's markets in Poland. Here's what Bloomberg wrote back in October:
Poland has long been a client of Russian oil companies. Last year, about three-quarters of its fuel imports came from Russia, with the rest from Kazakhstan and European countries. Poland, however, is at the center of efforts to reduce the European Union's dependence on Russian energy.
A new and reliable supplier is a godsend. As for the Saudis, they need to expand outside Asia where demand is falling.
This could turn into a more active shoving match between the world's two biggest oil exporters, which already are at odds over the Syrian conflict.
Indeed, one could plausibly argue that one of the reasons the Saudis moved to artificially suppress prices last year was to sqeeze Putin and ultimately force The Kremlin to give up its support for Assad. As The New York Times put it, a dramatic decline in crude prices has certain "ancillary diplomatic benefits."
Unfortunately for Riyadh, the strategy hasn't worked. In fact, it's backfired in more ways than one.
First, Saudi Arabia is facing a fiscal crisis as Riyadh's budget deficit balloons to 20% of GDP, forcing the kingdom to tap the debt market in order to offset the SAMA burn.
Second, Putin not only refused to give up his support for the government in Damascus, he actually doubled down by sending the Russian air force to Latakia. Meanwhile, Russia continued to pump even more oil, and as Bloomberg reports, Moscow is now producing at "the fastest pace since the collapse of the Soviet Union."
"Russia’s unexpected oil bounty this year is the result not of a new Kremlin campaign but of dozens of modest productivity improvements across the sprawling sector. Even pressured by plunging prices, as well as U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to much foreign financing and technology, Russian companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some of the country’s oldest fields," Bloomberg writes, before noting that "Bashneft and other Russian companies working fields in the Volga River basin -- some of the first to be discovered in Russia early in the last century -- are benefiting from Soviet inefficiency as [the old motto was]: 'whatever we don’t produce will be left for our children.'"
For analysts, Russia's resiliency has come as a surprise. “I know of no one who had predicted that Russian production would rise in 2015, let alone to new record levels,” Edward Morse, Citigroup’s global head of commodities research said.

As for what it would take to curtail production, Mikhail Stavskiy, head of upstream at Bashneft PJSC which has been "the biggest single contributor to increased crude output this year," says he doesn't know. “I don’t know what the oil price would have to fall to for things to change dramatically. We’ve been through $9 a barrel and production continued, so if something like that happens, we know what to do.”
Indeed, thanks to the low cost of extracting crude from Russia's oil fields in West Siberia and the devaluation of the ruble, production costs are rock bottom:

But not everyone agrees that this is sustainable. Some say efforts to improve efficiency have run their course and with financing for exploration scarce, further gains may be hard to come by. Interestingly, Bloomberg also notes that because Moscow takes "nearly everything above $30-$40 a barrel" on exports, producers won't feel the impact of low prices until crude falls substantially below those levels.
“Russia will maintain its current oil production levels within the bandwidth of 525 million to 533 million tons next year, as the federal government’s budget is set on such production levels,” Stratfor's Lauren Goodrich says, presaging more of the same in 2016.
The takeaway here is that the Saudi gambit failed to wrench market share away from the Russians and between the conflict in Syria, Moscow's closer ties with Beijing, and Riyadh's move to antagonize The Kremlin by encroaching on Russia's eastern European market share, one shouldn't expect Putin to back down any time soon. In short, if John Kerry and Riyadh did in fact plan to bankrupt the Russians by tanking crude prices, the effort was a miserable failure that resulted not only in a 20% fiscal deficit for the Saudis, but also in the destruction of American jobs in the oil patch.
We close with a bit of humor from Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov:
“I will tell you when Russian companies are for sure going to decrease production -- when oil costs $0."
- 250 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -




Now all we need is a bad day in SA -- oh say a few key oil terminals to mysteriously take a cruise missle or several for example -- and this is a whole other shit show.
One more secret "policy failure". Let's go back a little to that quiet visit Kerry had with the Saudis. Anybody recall that?
better pictures would include barack bowing and (for equal time) bush 43rd holding the king's hand
hey now obama did kiss his pinkee
With Bubba it was tongues so must be a cooling in relations.
I think that the original intent was against U.S. shale oil producers.The reason was because Saudi Arabia was pissed off at the U.S. for peace talks and then signing this nuclear agreement with Iran. Instead of the Obama Administration going along with Israel,the Sunni alliance and the last step in the Wolfowtz Doctrine which was to bomb Iran.The U.S. stabbed Saudi in the back after they funded these terrorists in Iraq and Syria.China and Russia stepped in and said no more of this because of their Asian trade agreements with Iran.Russia could see all this U.S. hegemony plan coming and was prepared for it through having very little foreign debt obligations.In establishing a counter global payments system that is gradually unfolding,you open up a can of worms because the funding of the military-industrial complex and its' political lackies feel threatened now.
Excellent sysnopsis Herdee. A wild animal becomes more violent when cornered. Pentagon & Banksters have cornered themselves and China/Russia are starving them out of business... Personally, I fucking love it. Starve the beast...
Saudia got pissed when Russia stepped into Syria.... no pipeline
Russia was always in Syria (long ways back anyway) that's why Asad said "no pipeline" in the first place; Putin was leaning on him.
Herdee had the right of it: the timing, the politics -- this is all about Iran.
And Iran is also a Russian ally in all this.
SA is already shitting themselves. Watching for someone over there to make a very bad move very soon.
Yup. More of that no honor amongst thieves theme. The Saudis and Sam both know lots of reasons to distrust each other. Serves them both right
So the Big Question rears its lovely head....why didn't the Obama administration go along with the Saudis/zios? Please don't tell me it's coz he's the Peace Prize Prezident.
I'm starting to think the Zios are not omnipotent. Putin seems to be outside their control, and scaring the shit out of them. A moral man with a strong backbone and a powerful military, both conventional and nuclear, is exactly what they don't need. May he be that man.
On the home front, I'm wondering whether Trump might not be exactly what he appears to be (like Putin), and also outside their control
Obama and his advisors may simply be playing outside their league. If that's the case then you waste time trying to read anything into their actions, it could all be random noise.
Here's my thought, if you want one. The House of Saud may be on the way out and I do get the sense they are living on borrowed time. If this is the case then making pretty with those corrupt pukes looks like a loser move. Obama might be making up with the Russians to try and preserve the petrodollar -- sort of like the way you catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar -- so that when the Saud family are all hung out to dry the petrodollar can follow the spice, as it were.
I haven't given a lot of detailed thought to it, but this is an end-game for all the players in oil and these varied pirates live less by a code of ethics than by set of self-preserving guidelines. They have another 10-20 years to get richer than they are before the tent comes down on their little 100 years long performance.
If Vlad and Russia decide to entertain the Neocons then i'm joining DAESH; you say wha, the Neocons are DAESH; ok then i'm joining er, er ,whose left?
I doubt they can keep their people under control for another decade Their people like everyone else on the globe smell the US decline and see many people beginning to call their bluff
While plausible, and making political sense, I'm thinking that this is still a second-fiddle to the underlying realities of global credit destruction (aka the death of growth). We're so heavily leveraged on growth that any drop starts things trembling. Growth could NEVER continue, never mind doing so at such high levels (really need to understand how the exponential function works- it's nasty [turned us all in to crack addicts]!).
Some interesting takeaways from this:
Moscow takes everything about 30-40 a bbl anyhow. Okay, so what are they using for state revenue now that the price has dropped to where it is below this level.
The article states that Russia is the top oil producer, then uses a chart showing that it is in fact #3 and losing ground.
The rise in deliveries to China is highlighted in detail, while a drop in orders from other customers is merely alluded to.
Pumping ever-vaster quantities of oil at the current falling price is effectively pirating revenue from the future. When the price finally does rise, there will be less oil left to sell at the improved price. Like everything else today, the present is sucking the future dry.
Wellhead production price means absolutely nothing to petro-states that use the revenues to fund their governments. These social costs HAVE to be taken into account as well. Bankrupting US frackers has a very small effect on overall governmental operations in the US but is clearly having catastrophic consequences in Venezuela and other totally-dependent oil producing nations.
People keep making this claim that the drastic fall of the ruble is good for Russia since it lowers their production costs. Only by plundering their citizenry, who now have to work for the equivalent of kopecks instead of rubles. It may be good for the state and good for the oligarchs but it is disastrous for the actual people of Russia, who get nothing out of the deal except effectively lower wages for the same amount of work.
There's that keeping "wage-inflation down" meme again. Startin' to pop up everywhere...
You could say that about most countries. Like Canada for example where gas prices are still near $4.50 a gallon. Lots of job cuts in the oil patch too. Housing bubble cracking. Loonie down 30% in two years.
Everything is awesome!
That's very true, Mr. P, but the article wasn't a Canadian PR sheet but a Russian PR sheet.
Let's face it: The news is bad everywhere and the rate of decay is merely relative or perhaps better hidden in some cases than in others.
"Loonie down 30% in two years."
Canadians must be slackers. Argentina's currency managed to lose that much in a day.
parallel dollar went up to 16$AR and is coming down from there to a official price of 14.30$AR
Hi tarabel, did you manage to keep that vow of chastity? You devilish wench!
Grrrr
Hi W,
Yes, I'm still holding out for someone willing to keep me in the style to which I'd like to become accustomed.
Merry Christmas to you and I'll see ya around.
mgtow
Tarabel -
Never be afraid to expect the best.
Never feel that you are unworthy or not justified in having the best.
I tell you this is your heritage.
But, you have to claim it, you have to accept and expect it.
It is not demanding too much.
Quoted words from a man more evolved, and wiser than me.
May you and those you care for enjoy peace, good health, happiness, and prosperity.
Merry Christmas, and Happy new Year to you from an old bastard who cares.
P.S. Also, married for 35 years, so I got no dog in this hunt, just so's you knows.
Don't hold out too long. Women age, and their intrinsic value is inversely proportional to that age.
Worth mentioning, too, that selling one's ass makes one a whore.
Soc Dog
Spoken like a true professional.
You know nothing about being alive.
And, nothing about age.
Or the value of a human being.
Tarabel,
I am not sure where you are getting your info -- but I'm picking up a different story. I have close relatives who live and work in Moscow. They report that the very richest Russians are feeling the pain of sanctions -- in no small measure because they buy stuff that is imported. They have houses in other parts of the world, fly a lot, and spend dollars. The middle class and even the upper middle class, are not as affected. They spend rubles, and things are about the same. Life rolls along about as always.
All 7 of you could well be correct and I appreciate the very pertinent points you make. Your observation that everyone inside the ruble sphere is carrying on is a good one. I would observe, however, that life is good in the US capital as well even as the country crumbles all around it. I do not believe that the same factors are not present over there as are in effect over here.
I don't worry about the rich or the well-salaried adminstrators but the people who actually do the real work upon which everyone else feeds. It is also true that things percolate slowly and their eventual effects may not be immediately apparent.
your trolling level is quite high tarabel you managed two idiots to upvote you
what did you studied? even truough you post 95% shit, your vocabulary isnt that bad.
That's funny coming from a 2 week old douchnozzle with poor grammar.
LOL you upvoted tarabel >>> confession <<<
Bunghole <- that guy fell for a troll
now lets be serious.
everyone point with the finger at the bunghole and laugh
haha
haha
haha
Don't forget that the Russians sell oil in $ which is converted to roubles for use in Russia so to a very great extent they have been protected from the drop in oil price by the corresponding drop in the value of the rouble against the $. What has hurt them is the reduction in the quantity of $ which cuts the amount and increases the cost of imports they can buy.
Those really suffering as producers are those tied to the $, like Saudi and the others in the Mid East and Venezuela. Other producers like the UK, Norway and Russia have seen their currencies drop, causing pain for the populace but not so much for the State.
Other, non producers, are loving it!
It's the nasty game of competition, is it not?
If Russia doesn't keep running hard they won't win the game. Taking loses today can be somewhat offset by future gains (IF there is still a meaningful market!). When you're out of business it's hard to open back up and reestablish markets. And let's be clear here, it's ALL about markets: all the US manipulations in Eurasia have been about capturing the markets in Europe (away from Russia).
Keep in mind that market capture uses things like shipping lanes and pipelines. When there are already locked-in contracts it's a bit hard to squeeze in.
Fuck the Saudi's, they are barbarians still living in the dark ages.
And the US is? (which country is responsible for the WTO, NATO, IMF, Fed and the MIC?)
When we lose traction on growth and succumb to economies of scale in reverse (settling back to normal via entropy) pretty much everyone will be "living in the dark ages."
What was Saudi Arabia like before the Brits came along...? Give that invented State (5) years, if even.
You've got to hand it to those pesky Wahhabi Sodomites!
Hand what?
An ICBM into the centre of the House of Shitzen Saud ( preferably with a dozen nuclear warheads attached ).
Anyone who proposes nuclear weapons as a solution to anything is lacking in judgment.
Hasbara, or merely a fool?
Ok Demdere 'twas hubris. I should have said an ICBM with some lethal toxins.
Also if i'm a fool then it's not my fault, it's the MSM causing my meltdown. All of my mother's friends used to say i was a lovely boy.
Shoot your fucking television.
What and deprive her indoors of Britain's Got No Talent and American Idol? S'truth man i'd rather spend a summer camp with DAESH in Mosul.
That's funny!
as a solution to anything... every superpower on earth is dependent on nukes as a deterent against nuclear attack, a strategy which has worked to date, so your "lacking in judgment" is not historically accurate though I think it is morally correct. The USA continues to spend 100s of millions on it nuclear defense (offense?)triad. A lot of taxpayers and politicians support those expenditures...
I know of 2 people who gave this advice ..
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/01/07/putins-opportunity-to-bust-the-u...
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/07/30/the-coming-return-of-the-real-us...
http://wantarevelations.com/2014/01/wanta-plan-macro-financial-economic-...
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp (Read Me First)
So when does Leo get his dough?
Veterans today. The only way someone can instantaneously reduce their position to ZERO is by quoting Veterans Today out of the box. Complete and absolute bullshit of the highest order.
Disagree. There is some amazing crap, but some very good analysis as well. Particularly of "terrorist" incidents/mass shootings. Filter it, sure, but they are often right on the ball. Charlie Hebdo a good example. Also Newton.
Incidently, they reported several days ago on Trump accusing Israel and the Saudis of funding ISIS. Something Tyler is yet to cover. Sorta important, that one, I'd say. Why isn't Tyler covering it?
You win the award for the best post of the article, for this reason:
The US can adjust its Derivatives, if done in concert with the Saudis and Brits, as a result of price drops that they initiate. If non-members (Russia) initiate an unplanned and unexpected price drop, the SHTF could happen literally in the Derivatives market -- where it's ALL about keeping a DYNAMIC BALANCE of P&L profiles.
If you whack that DYNAMIC BALANCE, and apply hi RPM hits (HFT) via the Chinese, then all hell can break loose. Bet ya that Jim Rickards didn't tell you about that one.
Very interesting.
Like the Shale patch, the Russian energy producers are more resilient than Riyadh anticipated.
Unlike the Shale patch...Russia can probably muddle through low prices for quite a while yet.
Who benefits most from higher Oil Price? USSA - Check. Russia - Check. Saudi - who gives a Shit. Seems to me USSA is backing the wrong team (as usual). Pivot (as Obozo likes to say) toward Russia, turn the kooks in ISIS/Isreal on the terrorist Saudis and get that Oil price back up there.
The issue is that of demand. We've got low prices now and the demand isn't growing. Raise prices and I don't see how the credit-strapped world is going to jump up and go on a spending spree.
Right now it's ALL a matter of folks shuffling to retain/gain market share. Any gains are coming from the weak producers dropping out.
3 mules for sista sarah!
Why would China & Iran not back Russia to the hilt? Their own livelihoods are at stake.
China would be best placed to CUT ALL IMPORTS FROM THE SODOMITES and watch that SHIT HOLE blow dust up its Ring Piece.
Because Russia is not a trustwothy ally.
I bet that any ally's trustworthiness depends a lot on ours.
Do you think we have been a trustworthy ally?
Well, US has been more trustwothy than Russia. But the US is losing that reputation.
I would agree that the US has been perceived as more trustworthy but the price for that is your sovereignty
Ok one simple question--would the US allow Russia to attack Saudi, Israel or even Turkey?
But did Russia intervene in Lybia? Did Rusia intervene in Syria before the civil war started? Either Russia is very naive(which is not a good thing) or Russia is very untrustworthy. Russian elites just want that the US recognize and assimilate them in the global elite cabal.
That isn't "trustworthy" you're talking about. Defend Israel? We are run by Israel. Get that into your head.
"but the price for that is your sovereignty"
A very excellent point. Almost every other country on the planet has seen this play out in one way or another regarding deals with the US (or with our lackies at the IMF or Whirled Bank).
The petrodollar is now the only thing standing in the way of direct and absolute repudiation of dealings with the US. And the petrodollar is tied to the continued mid-East hegemoney of the the corrupt House of Saud. There are a lot of actors would like to see that bunch of child-raping pornstars dragged out of their brothels and thrown into a pit of scorpions. And the Saudis know it. Watch for them to become increasingly erratic as the noose tightens. And with that, watch US foreign become increasingly (hard to imagine I know) deranged and unhinged from all reality as a result.
Mark me: It could all fold up in a single day.
You must have just left high school or are on the sPyNet.gov payroll, nukeboy.
CHINA?
Playing Putin like a fine fiddle.
BBBWWWAAAAHHHHAAA!!! China. Right. Sure.
----
Ukraine to build Chinese L-15 Light Attack Fighter in Odesa.
When the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) collapsed in December 1991, its integrated military-industrial complex was shattered and split up among 15 newly independent countries. Ukraine received many significant assets, including top-notch fighter and aircraft plants as well as the USSR’s most advanced shipyards at Mykolaiv, where the Soviet Union’s aircraft carriers were built. Now China is seeking to begin construction of light attack aircraft at a Ukrainian defense industry facility, the first time that China has engaged a significant portion of the former Soviet military-industrial complex.
Mykolaiv population is very anti-Kiev
you knowing nothing about this subject,
cannot see where this is going...
Fucking rookie!
And all of that Saudi depleted oil wealth that depended on controlling Iranian, Iraqi and Syrian oil field(s) denominated in "USD" is 4... 3... 2... 1... GONE!!!
someone said a truth omg
Just drop a lot of leaflets over there (Saudi Arabia) with but this one word on it:
DERIVATIVES
(and sign it: "Thanks for playing!")
Why we russians are being fucked? Why? It's now more than 71 RUB for 1 USD. But 2 years ago it was like 25 RUB for 1 USD!!! Our salaries has not went up 3 times!!! We can't afford nothing!!! Putin save us! Where are you Scooby Doo?
You poor dumb thing; http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y
So you can't afford imports? Have homemade instead.
3rd world wages come home to roost
And you're a sucker ukropskiy. Go and kiss Petro in the bell-end. He is now president of your great independent sanitorium.
Never use the phrase "71 RUB for 1 USD" in the presence of a lease crude oil buyer.
I did predicted this.
See this,
https://www.rt.com/business/318527-rosneft-sechin-oil-shale-us/
And tell me, how much the cost to extract oils in Russia??
The west forgot something. Cost extracting in Russia? Paid in RUBEL. However, most oils/gas are exported. Which os priced in FX currencies. And you know how rubel exchange against other currencies, right?
So, the LOWER the rubel in FX market? The happier those oils/gas companies operated inside Russia. Hence i predicted the sustains high productions level.
Even when oils reachs 26$ regime? You'll see those bears happilly pumping out oils/gas.
As for Saudi? It would have to stop ISIS funding, and paying mercenaries to do war in yemen, if, oils falls bellow 30$. Saudi already bleeds 20% of its GDP at 50$ oils price. Do you want to recalculates it at <30$ oils??
Here are some signs of a coming recession.
1. Investors in high-yield bonds are expecting to see their first negative return since the start of the credit crisis in 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deteriorating-junk-bonds-flash-warning-signs-for-stocks-2015-12-07?dist=afterbell
2. Factory orders continue to drop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-factory-orders-flash-recession-warning-drop-yoy-10th-month-row
3. Default risk spikes
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-02/us-financials-default-risk-spikes-2-year-high
4. M&A set record
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/
5. Iron ore prices tumble
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iron-ore-prices-keep-crashing-adding-to-global-growth-fears-2015-11-30
6. Baltic dry shipping index tumbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shipping-index-falls-to-all-time-low-stoking-fears-about-global-growth-2015-11-19
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
You loons are intent on presenting INFO BASED ON PHONEY FX/ MARKET PRICES even when facing the barrel of a gun.
What does it matter? to borrow a line from one pussy-licking Cunt that even the Saudi Pigs wouldn't Fuck,
The next 30 years are what Russia, China , Iran and their ever increasing circle of friends discuss.
Unlike ZATO for whom the clock is ticking.
Tick-tock, MF's
Akbar, Merry Xmas to ME
You can't spike the eggnog with grain alcohol until Christmas Eve. No fair getting a jump on the rest of us...
I'm going to guess that Edward Morse only knows people who believe that oil is biotic.
Otherwise, why wouldn't Russia continue to increase production?
"Unfortunately for Riyadh, the strategy hasn't worked."
There is no Saudi 'strategy' or 'gambit'. Oil prices are dropping for the same reason as prices for copper, iron and the Dow Transports are dropping - reduced demand from aging populations in Europe, Japan, China and the US.
Yes, it is good that the Saudis are hurting. This barbaric regime has caused the deaths of thousands of innocent people. But, even if the Saudis were good guys, there is nothing they can do about the fact that they are going to be hurting. The US no longer needs them any more so let them dry up in the sun.
Such a brilliant "bigger dick" plan. Go on Putin and show the Saudis how yours is bigger...
For those of you needing a refreseher.
----
Pyrrhic Victory
A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way. However, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit. Another term for this would be "hollow victory".
The schizophrenic imbecile from the chamber released again...
Maybe so. But I'm still right. Anybody with a second grade understanding of economics knows that I'm 100% right.
Putin needs oil prices to be high -- so instead he does his best to flood the market and keep prices crashing to "show the Sauds a lesson" Brilliant.
hehehe...
You're right only in your own mind. Remember that, when trolling around...
guys the worst you can do to alphahammer is to upvote him
the only reason he posts is to earn downvotes
in reality he gives a shit about russia and putin
if you say something like "alpahammer you are right and i agree with you", he will lose all of his motivations to live
Trolololololololol
voting up or down is feeding that troll.
Apropos of little - how long before "isis" attacks Spain?
Spain Issues Arrest Warrant For Benjamin Netanyahu Over 2010 Gaza Flotilla AttackThere's also "totsiegen," victored to death, coined by the Wehrmacht, early on in Russia.
low commodities prices is effecting us all, world wide
"[...] if John Kerry and Riyadh did in fact plan to bankrupt the Russians by tanking crude prices, the effort was a miserable failure"
I never had any doubts about this.
Add to that, with the US recruiting/training/arming and funding various terrorist groups in Syria, the whole strategy has been to wreck Russia's economy and ferment civil unrest to depose Putin, thereby opening the door for another Western puppet government.
Too bad they got it all wrong. Putin is far smarter than all of them.
Listening to that spokesman prat in the State Dept the other day asserting that Russia is "isolated" is almost hilarious.
Please...
Bankrupt? Yes functionally already bankrupt. Do the Russian people understand this? They will in about six mnonths and then the real fireworks for Putin will begin.
Riots in the Russian streets courtesy of Putin. Six months. Watch and see.
Where's your troll pal Yomutti?
Is s/he/it off for Christmas?
Riots in the Russian streets? Could be. In six months it will be a lot warmer and everybody will want to come outdoors for some street theater. But the rioters will probably only be the same 30 people who try to start them every year, and they will be outnumbered by Western journalists hoping for a scoop. The violence will probably be caused by CNN cameramen jostling with BBC cameramen for the best pictures.
John Kerry can't even plan what course his windsurfer goes off Nantucket -- the wind decides for him.
The idea that he actually came up with a multi-month "plan" to impact Russia? Absurd. Kerry married into money -- he hasn't done anything with his life.
Think Riyadh was focused on stopping Shia (Iran) from spreading influence over more and more of the middle east.
I recall that Kerry visited Saudi just before/after the Saudis dropped the oil price. There has long been speculation that Kerry was involved.
At the same time, it may also have been to screw Iran; that may have been another factor.
Kerry met with (tried to meet with) several Saudi officials at the airport... but they snubbed him. Yes, they posed for a picture and did the diplomats smile. But they were too busy to actually have any conversation with him.
Technically, they might have snubbed him to send a message to Obama (who was making nice with the Iranians at the time) -- but point remains: no secret plan was made with Kerry.
Maybe the Saudi's have a secret plan, maybe Jimmy Hoffa brought them a tin foil hat, maybe a lot of things.
But the first rule of a secret conspiracy is: don't invite the idiot.
When you're on fire a ballsack of piss is priceless.
It is of no surprise that Russia, often blamed for a lack of efficiency, is capable of making improvements which help to mitigate the negative effects from the current level of oil price. It is also not a surprise that the extraction cost are comparably low. For people that can use a calculator it is also not a surprise that the Rouble devaluation is stabilising the economy in Russia. The only surprise is that people in the US and Europe did not see that coming. They are purportedly so well educated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUcg5S89on4
Meanwhile the Ruble is going straight down without retracement since months...
Russians will run out of Rubles before ISIS run out of oil truck tankers...
at the end of the day, they still have more gas, oil, gold and diamonds laying about than just about anyone - which is of course what the "globalists" and "Zionists" want to steal.
Their economy was deliberately raped and set back by the usual suspects under Yeltsin.
One might argue Putin should have diversified the economy more but the US/NATO telegraphed early and often their "Grand Chessboard" militarism. So much wealth had to be diverted into revamping the military as NATO continued it expansions and the US its regime change ops.
Still make excellent rockets, fighter jets, and engines.
Presumably they will begin manufacturing more heavy machinery and electronics. Asia will buy it even if Europe, which is being destroyed anyway ...will not.
Russia is sitting on 30 trillion dollars in mineral wealth alone.
http://www.ireland.mid.ru/geo_en.html
No wonder the usual suspects want to get their hands on it.
All through history Russia has been underestimated. It would seem that the powers that be have once again fallen into the same trap. In Putin Russia has a leader of great intelligence whilst the west has a collection of P.C. buffoons.
ZH ought to stop predicting the imminent demise of the FRN. It will be propped up as long as American regime change and black ops are needed to remake the Middle East for Ersatz "Israel" certainly, barring a policy counter-coup. Which means the military explicitly calling out, perhaps even actively frustrating, the CIA/Deep State's support for terror proxies.
But even Hersh can't quite get to the fact that the Deep State is not doing what it is doing in order to contain terrorism, but to hone its use as a proxy chaos maker.
The American Empire has been hijacked by bankers, transnationalists {"globalists"} the MIC, and Zionism and there is significant overlap in between them. One may quibble to the End of Days as to the role of each but the above seem to be the four horseman. And few politicians bend the knee as swiftly and humbly to anything more ferociously than the "pro-Israel lobby" which is, in practice a Jewish Lobby.
Just as the neocons were a right wing, Likudnik Jewish movement amounting to proxy zionism, using America as Israel's sword and shield and treasury.
Doubt me? Think its a "canard"? Do a little reading:
I don't deal in lies or canards. Ever.
But I do deal in shit you aren't supposed to think or say.
When you consider the FU Obama context of the Netanyahu speech, and the ovations at the unpacking of lies and platitudes, you see an Empire hijacked by the most powerful and organized elements of all 4 horsemen. I think Wilkerson, who is likely much smarter than you likely think, was hinting around it, but was basically saying that the American people would be used as sword, shield and treasury by the banks, MIC, transnationalists, and Transnational Zionism until its destruction. Unless there is a revolution or military coup.
And he's right. But he also probably believes that Americans are too brainwashed and too stupid and too afraid of being accused of "conspiracy theory" and "hate" by the people who conspire against them in brutal, naked hate - to do much at all. Enjoy the Superbowl. Enjoy what remains of "Christ" - mas in a media and judiciary run by those who *hate* Christ.
Excellent metaphor of the Four Horsemen. But there is considerable overlap between each of those you offer, zio's and bankers for example. And you leave out some key players, Intelligence, Wall Street, Big Business and doubtless more. Again with considerable overlap.
BTW, it wasn't the empire got hijacked, it was the republic, they turned it into an empire.
Also BTW, Geyenot's book (JFK-9/11: 50 years of Deep State) is a very good read, links a lot of things together and presents a pretty convincing argument for what went wrong.
"Enjoy what remains of "Christ" - mas in a media and judiciary run by those who *hate* Christ."
Christ is a Jewish invention.
m.
a jewish substrate is obvious, but the ethics of Christ was closer to the Essenes than the Pharisees, and Christianity as such was absolutely molded and shaped by the Romans and for thsat matter Greeks to such an extent that "judeo-Christian" is an oxymoron. The commands of yahweh the father sky god and Jesus of Nazareth are not just different, but essentially different.
_______________________
and see:
http://www.caesarsmessiah.com/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ik7GRQ9hoVY
Johnny H.,
Very, very, very good post. Thanks. The truth/density of your post puts you in the range of a neutron star.
"Unless there is a revolution or military coup"
Neither of the above will happen, not from within - think of the Roman Empire
Positive externalities keep the empire afloat for a lot longer than anyone could have predicted
Negative externalities killed the empire just as all hope was lost and none expected it to fall
What if all of this was just theatre designed to enslave the most possible people worldwide?
That would put a different spin on everything wouldn't it?
It's easy to see good and bad guys here or there but what if....... what if there are no real teams but just fake teams so we don't catch on to how we're being hosed?
Everything is run by elites, here, there, everywhere what if it's not America vs Russia but everyone vs an oligarchy?
Inconceivable!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3sLhnDJJn0
20 Americans own 50% of America's wealth
500 Russians own 95% of Russia's wealth
Inconceivable? Fact!
"Wealth: Having It All and Wanting More, a research paper published today by Oxfam, shows that the richest 1 percent have seen their share of global wealth increase from 44 percent in 2009 to 48 percent in 2014 and at this rate will be more than 50 percent in 2016. Members of this global elite had an average wealth of $2.7 million per adult in 2014.
Of the remaining 52 percent of global wealth, almost all (46 percent) is owned by the rest of the richest fifth of the world’s population. The other 80 percent share just 5.5 percent and had an average wealth of $3,851 per adult – that’s 1/700th of the average wealth of the 1 percent.
- See more at: https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2015-01-19/richest-1-wi..."
hhmmm.
So wealth is far more concentrated in America than Russia.
Read this first: How America Built the Russian Oligarchy
http://cityvista.tumblr.com/Williamson1
and google for the meetings of russian oligarchs with Rothchilds
Yeah, I knew that after the collapse of the USSR, Western bankers moved in and Yeltsin had an odd obsession to become another Western nation with all of its banking baggage.
That lead to Russian oligarchy wealth concentration, which Putin is reportedly trying to roll back.
Yeltsin was a drunken fool. Putin is the opposite.
Canadian Air Force Gives ISIS a Big Assist in Iraq...
Military Source:
Iraqi Army Positions in Anbar Province Hit by Canadian Fighter Jet.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/12/21/canadian-air-force-gives-isis-a-...
https://alethonews.wordpress.com/2015/12/19/us-deliberately-hindering-ir...
it's not a mistake when it keeps happening while they keep not attacking isis seriously.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/10/12/us-caught-faking-it-in-syria/
it's support for isis, which is what the mic and ziofascists want.
http://www.mintpressnews.com/isis-israel-iraq-and-syria-its-all-part-of-...
And yet Russia still lacks the balls to impose an NFZ (No Fly Zone) over Syria.
Even after all that's happened, and the mere pretext they could use: "To prevent ongoing episodes of Friendly Fire and improve the efficiency to combat ISIS, the Syrian Government has issued an NFZ over its territory, that will be enforced by the RAF and appropriate Ground Forces".
The official and maybe real intent, is to force the Western alliances to stop pretending and to start fighting ISIS. The intended benefit, is to ease them out of the area physically and logistically.
But, like I said: for smart and tough people, the Russians (Putin) sure keep lobbing softball pitches to Pro players, they sure keep pulling their punches. Which makes me a tad suspicious about their Ability or Agenda. Until I see Russians and Syrians knocking foreign aircraft out of the sky, or carpet-bombing Turkish troops in their oil region in N. Syria, I remain somewhat skeptical as to what's really going on.
Alternatively, whoever in Russia/Kremlin is giving Putin the advice to avoid and NFZ and to work with their 'Partners' (what a joke that term is), seems to be part of the 5th Column. For whenever you cannot use your economic or military forces to impose your will on the opponent, you are left with Courtesan-style diplomacy of PsyOps on the Opponent's Leadership. Nothing like using Deception and the Jedi Mindtricks, to get your way.
I share your concerns on this. My only explanation is that Putin doesn't want to be the one that risks escalating the East-West confrontation or of starting WWIII.
At this point he has secured his military bases in Syria and prevented Assad from being ousted.
exactly. Putin looks out for Russia's interests. Obama represents Soros' interests. That's the difference
hop before jump
i dont think its russia. i think assad is too much of a pussy and asking putin not to.
if the russians institute a nfz, the stoopids will deploy tarts on the ground. not something vlad or assad want at this time, not until more territory is secured and more weapons brought in. which is exactly what's happening. t-90's and a whole list of other shit keeps rolling in and syria keeps gaining more ground.
in due time
Obama likes to engage in open mouth operations and draw red lines all over the place. Bark bark bark.
Putin sent S-400 anti-aircraft missile batteries and ordered naval ships offshore to shoot first, ask questions later. Protect Russian pilots.
Someone flies over Syria, Obama will hold a press conference while (if it threatens Russian interests) Putin will shoot the plane down. The NY Times will write some lame excuse why Obama doesn't matter anymore.
The oil patch has always been governed by booms and busts. Taking the long view at this particular point in this particular bust, the game is not about making money. It's about forcing your competitors out of business and grabbing their market share, exactly as Russia is doing to set itself up for the next boom.
Personally, if I were a Saudi oil sheik, I'd be looking at going long goats.
I agree that this is about market share (US meddling has been about displacing Russia's market share in Europe), but there's NOT going to be any future "boom." Again, where would it come from? (growth is pretty much finished)
soon there wont be any need for oil. Russia will go bankrupt as its economy is "gas station"
http://www.sciencealert.com/german-has-just-successfully-fired-up-a-revo...
So you've resorted to quoting John McCain?
Mom always said never go full retard.
You need to step up your trolling game if you want to make it past 5 weeks, assclown.
How's the beet harvest in Latvia this year?
It's posts like this that keep me coming back! (thanks!)
Oh. FFS. Fusion has never been the problem. It's getting more energy out of the fusion than you put in to make it work that's the problem and has been for 50 years. It's always 20 years away.
A quasi-symmetric magnetic field was used 8 years ago. That isn't new. The Wendelstein 7-X seems to be a step forward, but actually producing and safely containing the plasma for months at a time is decades away.
Our Sun and all the other (currently functioning) stars seem to have no problem with nuclear fusion.
It's all a matter of equilibrium. Equilibrium between the fusion process and GRAVITY (mass-bending of space).
So, therefore, two possibilities:
Either 1) Create an anti-gravity field (negate the space-time relationship) to suspend the nuclear fusion process altogether, or,
2) Make a fusion reactor small enough so you can create a system in equilibrium, between the mass and the nuclear process.
this is pure nonsense, of course. ;0}
THE PROBLEM is basing everything on perpetual growth when it's NOT possible.
Energy is only one part of the equation. And while it can facilitate growth demands it cannot meet them in perpetuity, not as long as humans require air, water and land: even with an infinite amount of energy there's still the physical limits.
Long time ago I was a proponent of fusion energy (well, always appreciated the sun, though I've come to appreciate it more on a real-time basis- passively). When I came to understand that it is but a part of the puzzle and that we do not/could not have an answer for the other parts I backed away. Still think it's cool (unicorns are also cool).
atmasko <- ukrainian name
elsewhere, I read a post from a zygmond who said Russia was uncivilized and it would be best if it was to disappear. There are some people out there who are totally 'amazing' and unfortunately we need to take some notice of them because we sort of have to know what's out there.
you mean you want take notice of ukrainan and latvian trolls? please this people are lifeless trolls
USA made the mistake of bringing down the ruble at the same time as the oil price. According to an analysis today by Mish Shedlock, Russian oil companies pay 80 to 90 percent of their expenses in rubles. So they are not seeing a huge red tide gutting their income statements - at least not enough to shut down oil rigs.
On the other hand, the government is seeing much lower revenues, but according to Putin's press conference last week, he is willing to go into deficit spending for another year (already did in 2015, and looking forward to a deficit in 2016) to pay for all the government's social programs as well as the war effort in Syria. Given that it still has about 400 billion USD in reserves, Russia can probably pay for another two years of deficit spending even if oil stays below $30 per barrel.
If low oil prices continue for another two years, not only Russia will be in serious trouble.
Same with sanctions, Russia learns fast and it's no longer reliant on EU markets for food. New industries and reliable sources of imports have been created. Same as this laughable assertion that Russia has no access to western capital markets for loans - well, thats exactly what they don't want, cos they can see what happens when they have dollar loans. These sanctions are making Russia less not more reliant, making them more independent, and in the end stronger. There's a total lack of Western understanding of how the markets work in Russia, and also China.
If Russia is paying expenses in rubles (which are way down in price in INTERNATIONAL markets, but flat in Russia)...
And they collect export revenue (oil exports anyway) in US dollars, which have appreciated against the ruble...
And they are collecting an ever increasing amount of income in Chinese Yuan (which is tied to the US dollar, so is worth more rubles than before)...
Seems like they don't really have the problem Mish Shedlock claims.
PS - Shedlock says on his blog that he lives in socialist (bankrupt / corrupt) Illinois.
You guys are all a lot smarter than I, so I'll throw it out there for vote....How many think the world is in a deflationary spiral because of productivity gains coming home to roost?
Your question seems to be a non sequitur.
A flood of credit is like the tide going out before a tsunami hits. Like so many non-natives (ignorants), most were out picking up sea shells on the beach (thinking of their retirements and shit).
"I have a phone and a pen"
-Obammy
Putin seems to be in on the globalist agenda, which has no room for monarchies. I expect that as things get tough for the Saud, they will self-destruct... or the Saudi people will self-destruct them.
We can dismantle some of the Saudi influence, but only if we want to. Bloomberg writes that many mosques and centres where people get radicalized are paid for by Saudi money. They say private Saudi money and it is channeled into the other countries through 'charities', yes, they write 'charities'. Charities are NGOs and when they become political players, funded from foreign countries, they need to be shut down. The US and Russia have legislation about NGOs who are funded from the outside and stir. If such legislation was adopted and abided by everywhere, the Saudis would not get a look in into playing politics.
LOL. Ouch ... struck a chord.
Yeah, not sure why the downvotes. Best I can tell is because it doesn't seem to make any fucking sense... (most times I don't bother to vote- noting it as ambiguous)
Imagine their production if we didn'the have sanctions, imagine our fuel prices.
Turkish-ISIL Oil Trade: Iraq, Iran, Syria, And Russia All Accuse Turkey Of Smuggling Oil (Part I)
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=564390
Turkish-ISIL Oil Trade: Did The Turkish Military Enter Mosul To Protect Its Oil Trade? (Part II)
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=566148
Turkish-ISIL Oil Trade: The Roles Of The Kurdistan Regional Government, Britain, And Israel (Part III)
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=566155
Turkish-ISIL Oil Trade: US and NATO Culpability (Part IV)
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=567489
Anyone thinking that maybe Turkey was set up from the beginning? (US supported the Kurds in Iraq, yet the Turks were killing them [massively back in the 80s- the West never mentions this, probably owning to the "Made In The US" stamped on all the killing devices], and still does its best today). It almost has the feel of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait.
Regime change in Turkey in 4, 3, 2....
I wonder if the Russian people know that MANY Americans are cheering for them and hoping that somehow we can figure out a way to stop the stooges in DC from scheming their demise.
Yes, I'm sure they know.
Russia also has people reading major blogs where geo-politics get debated. And I think they have significant support across Europe too.
And don't forget that RT.com often quote ZH on their progs.
History will one day note that by 2005 the operations of the US Federal government had become completely unhinged from the will of the people in every way possible. And that every thinking adult on the planet knew this to be true, and feared of and for America.