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Beneath The Market's "Shallow" Surface, An Ugly Picture Emerges
Breadth Breaking Bad-er with every passing day.
As Citi's Matt King explained over the weekend "the equity rally has become increasingly narrow: as our equity strategists like to say, “Bull markets narrow; bear markets broaden.”
It doesn't get much 'narrower' than this:
The "Arms Index" or "TRIN" is a technical analysis indicator that compares advancing and declining stock issues and trading volume as an indicator of overall market sentiment.
Do you still believe in market Christmas miracles?
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Its ok. The assholes at the Federal Reserve have our backs. Nothing bad will happen.
Europe is about to embark on a dash for the exit in the new year, as it is reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is allegedly ‘Hitler’s Daughter’ and the Fourth Reich is about to become a reality......
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/the-fix-is-in-franc...
Everybody is jumping into the short side. There have got to be some squeezes coming...
This is the only explanation. Nobody wants to be blindsided by a market crash again, so everyone has been watching this thing intently, over-shorting the shit out of it so it never actually crashes!
And central banks are rescuing drowning institutions in secret.
How relevant is it to draw conclusions from a 4-day chart?
Depends. Are you an investor, trader, or machine?
Things are on time (another way to infer a four day chart with respect to today).
Barry passed the "Help a Banker Succeed Act" so I feel pretty comfortable things will be fine ... for them!
Can you say, "Bend over American Middle Class!"
although that is true enough, historically the fed beat barry to that action, paying interest on reserves held at the fed starting back when many still believed obozo was an agent of change. not to mention the shift from mark to market to mark to model done in march of '09 which involved congress as well as the buffoon in chief.
imo, the best analysis of the policy errors inherent in the fed's recent increase in interest rates is here:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc151221.htm
With approximately six days left of trading until 2016, it is only relevant on that basis. However, I do agree with you that this chart (and the lack of article) is Bull porn; thus, enjoy and happy holidays.
Much more money to be made squeezing the longs...get ready for it
With 3 puts for every call option, it's not hard to figure out who is long... Just like the PM markets, whoever controls the printing presses controls market direction these days...
never short a (bad breadth) dull market...
Sray, I hope you are right. There are some juicy options plays lining up for 2016.
But this time is different... Now, everyone's 401(k)s are locked in to buying moar, every month, so it can't possibly go down right? They also put a 20% tax, er...I mean "gate" on "early" withdrawals. So everything is safe. Buy another share, even if it is overpriced! To infinity and beyond!
mr. nosey on christmas will fix his presets to the floor with glue, so aliens cant steal them
his mother will giv... ooops i mean santa claus will give him a new stack of silver foil and magic stones he found next to the local river.
now mrnosey can line up the stones in a row and they will wisper to him: "you are an idiot"
+100 for calling out the resident moon bat.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHNY4juwbeg
Good. World Defeated The Wrong Enemy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bm34sj65MkA
Sounds plausable. ;)
That's probably just a tad bit more tin foil than I can swallow right now....
If Hitler had a daughter....???
If Hitler had a daughter, I doubt she would have welcomed hundreds of thousands of Syrians into the Fatherland.
Who you calling ugly? My hubby Henry Fellen says that I have a perty mouth, and that I missed a few branches when I fell out of the ugly tree.
Nothing bad will happen while I am in office. It will be at least a decade more before we destroy the rest of the currency and your way of life.
I figure that Japan has a ten year head-start on us, and their money printing mania hasn't crashed their joke of an economy yet.
So, we will do MOAR. Markets (our benefactors on Wall Street) seem to love it.
So I should go all in with Merrill Lynch when selecting my allocation for my 403b on my 2nd day of orientation for my new job?
I kid you not... last meeting, financial planner said, "I don't know what the market is going to do, I have no control over what is going to happen, I don't know what is going to happen, just keep investing like everybody else."
So basically, get's payed to wear a $1,000 suit and say this? ... how is this any different than a re-spun "social security" program? Looks to me like the same fucking thing!
at least they guy is being honest - scary times for firms without any money on their premises - how the digits quickly dissappear
there's always a bigger sucker... usually working for the Fed...
It ain't necessarily so! The things you read in the WaPo, believe in, it ain't necessarily so. It's all musical chairs and when the music stops. . .hello soup kitchen!
It's really only when the deck chairs start sliding that panic sets in. Prior to that most folks just cock their heads to match the list.
What scares the hell out of me is the fucking Bloomberg video that pops on with Hillary spouting something!! ZH - You're KILLING ME!!
What!? Link please
regarding bloomberg video; there is an essay by herbert marcuse 'one dimensional man'. Take the theory he espouses, apply it to zh; that may well be zh future.
i am a true pure capitalist. therefore, i understand n applaud zh creator/owner for accepting bloomberg's money.
Creator & owner now 2 entirely different entities....and there is a difference. I remember the original. You see, it really is no different than the rest of the world. Entrepreneurs start companies with specific intentions. If they become successful and cash out to corporations, well just look around your world to see what happens.
Yeah, we have smartphones and personal computers. Problems businesses cause are merely a result of government intervention in the markets.
Back before I installed Adblock Plus somebody posted a link to the Amazon customer product reviews for a yellow plastic banana slicer. Funnier than Hell!
For the next week I got popup ads for banana slicers on Zerohedge. Made me laugh every time.
Adblocker Plus rocks - without it Zerohedge is almost unreadable. I do miss the Snorg Tee gals though. There was this one curvey redhead that really made you stare at the tee shirt she had on.
aye, I stared at that tee for quite a bit too
I noticed earlier today that ad block was working on 30 hits one one page. Crazy.
I use Adblock, and it is a good program. However, it will deliberately allow certain ads to pop up
http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2015/09/adblock-letting-compnies-pay-...
hopium... it's a hell of a drug.
Hope is not unlike salt or water: You need it, but both too little and too much are bad for you.
Rulers have learned to commoditize and weaponize it.
Well, the kids like christmass so that's all that matters to make it a fun time.
We'll worry about the rest next year!
Bah!!! Humbug!!!
What a waste of productive time!!!
Just make sure to wish a Merry Christmas to those living in a ghetto anywhere in the Roman Catholic World.
Tell them to eat, drink and make merry...
Er......On a second thought...NO...They might misunderstand what making merry is and God forbid that they breed anymore.
But make sure that you do not feed them. Then they will breed. They are like Tribbles.
Yeah. Christmas is for...THE CHILDREN.
It...it...iit is for..the children's sake.
What a bunch of Socialist claptrap.
Here is to hoping that your Holiday is as fucked up as mine. That is to all of you.
Let the junks begin so that I may enjoy at least one good laugh during this Commercialized Sales Season.
Merry Bottom Line. And may your profits grow exponentially next year...IN A HYPERINFLATIONARY INFERNO.
Do not fret. The taxman will love what you owe out of the diminshed value of the currency.
Tylers should know the farce by now : Kevin Henry only works the headline numbers
Kevin is partying in the men's room with his hookers while Bangin' 7 gram rocks...
That big T-rex maw seems to be a reoccurring theme on just about every chart that matters these days. Garsh, if one didn't know any better, one might think something rather $unfortunate is brewing...
No matter how bad reality charts get, sure seems the Fed has an endless supply of fuel to do whatever they feel like.
everything looks normal to me. banks up, whole foods up, facebook still trades 100pe. no problems..
TRIN? thats what you throw on the xmas tree..
CAT up 5% on nothing more than bad news ... no problems
not only that, but it's oversold and will continue to increase dividend payouts through 2016... everything is awesome
this chart means nothing. Rising prices slow down or stop selling. Rising on low volume is ok.
Yes. 'Never sell a quiet market after a rise' is still in effect. But these have not been quiet markets.
Do charts still mean anything if we don't have real markets? Ordinarily, yeah, that would be one nasty-looking divergence, etc. but nowadays who knows? There don't seem to be any limits to "extending," as long as everyone keeps "pretending."
Some days it's hard to believe that truth will have the last word.
I would bet that there were still some gamblers at the table when the Titanic nosed into the sea. If we are going to watch gamblers in an attempt to define our future, I would submit that as a sign that our future is already fucked beyond repair.
I agree amish and oldwood. To be honest, I might skim over an article but I rarely look at the charts...THe main reason I come to ZH is to read the comments...I find there are alot of good and smart people here. I learn more from the comments, than I do from the articles. :-) thanks all
you must read a lot of comments
Sorry. Truth will never have the last word.
Welcome to 2015. We've missed you.
Bad breadth. Do something about it!
Where is everybody that said a rate hike would bring disaster? stocks and oil havnt changed much etc... I mentioned before that if they make a rate hike, they would figure out a way to still kick the can down the road...And as mentioned in a previous post I made, countries are getting in debt awaiting the global monetary reset in which central banks will get a jubilee, but the citizens of those countries will not. So the next big question is? when they do the global monetary reset, will they allow its citizens who held gold to cash in? Or will they make it illegal, or tax it 2000% etc. Knowing the central banks, and thier police state power, and how evil they are, I would bet they totally f**k average people over that hold gold...If I had gold, I would sell it and buy silver...I think its a safer bet but still not foolproof...food, water, a roof over your head and guns and ammo are the safest bet, but in this world of evil central bankers, nothing is really safe.
Also, NASA and mainstream are finally admitting chemtrails...Many people, mostly mike rivero, owe people an apology....I also feel there is some trouble between high ranking military that obama hasnt fired yet, that are going against obama...Gues we will see what happens...I also somewhat believe that putin is fighting the central bankers also...2016 is gonna be fun fun fun...stock up on beer and popcorn to watch the show...
Patience Coast, noting big will happen until after New Years. All of the rats are staying on the sinking ship right now to collect their bonuses, then after the start of the year you will indeed see the rats start to abandon the USS Yellin' in quick order. The rats will be screamin' for MOAR QE as they abandon ship.
I tend to agree with you a bit...but I thought things were going to collapse in 2008, so what do I know. :-) you could very well be right tho. I have thought the same thing.
"NASA and mainstream are finally admitting chemtrails."
where? Ive been screaming about geoengineering for a decade and people still mock me.. despite the simplicity of just pointing at the sky on any given day.. any strong supporting infor?
Hi geetz....dont ask me, I an schulz and "I know nothing"...type it into your search engine, I use startpage because they seem to not track me. be creative, type in something like "nasa and mainstream admit chemtrails" you will find dozens of articles..
nope contrails are all the proof you need,,,just like the bible is all the proof they need
This is heavy sarcaasm....geeesh
I hope you include the Torah, the Holy Koran and every other tome that is revered by any religion. I would hate to see you make a "disparate impact" on one single religion.
http://thevictoryreport.org/smithsonian-now-admits-chemtrails-is-geoengi... I took a different avenue in speaking of chemtrails, such as patents taken out by the government and this has been going on a long time, I decided to just say the following..."ok, no chemtrails, thats fine. Its just contrails...But why is gore and obama and the U.N. talking about climate change but never address whatever is coming out of the planes? I also note that I have solar panels, and when the planes go by I use a multimeter to gauge the amount of electricity...I lose over 30% of power after the planes spread the sky...I know, screw my solar panels, go get tied to the electric grid and shut up...So how about growing our frigging FOOD? what is going to happen when our food supply only gets 60% of the sun needed to grow?
What about vitamin D3??? Why do we have to pay the U.N. and al gore money for something that they dont even address? If its just contrails, then why do the politicians all fly planes all the time? these are simple arguments that no one will address.
If it has perceived value, it is NEVER safe.
when they do the global monetary reset ..
The answer in 2 parts ..
1) The Voice to Jim Willie (from the Dec. Hat Trick Letter)
Willie further opines ..
Willie also prefaces The Voice's announcement ..
2) Even before Willie et al mentioned the word reset in any of his writings and/or talks, this was discussed in July 2014 forward ..
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/07/30/the-coming-return-of-the-real-us...
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp (Read Me First)
I keep telling you people. The Fed buys stocks covertly. Call it stealth QE!!!
Somehow the Fed's balance sheet went up $20 billion last month. Where do you think the money went ??????
She's so fine, there's no tellin' where the money went
she's all mine, there's no other way to go
She's unavoidable, I'm backed against the wall
She gives me feelings like I never felt before
I'm breaking promises, she's breaking every law
She used to look good to me, but now I find her...
Simply irresistible
Wow, all this time I thought they were obviously buying stocks. Your killing me here.
you're
The market may be heading ever higher on terrible fundamentals but at least gold is still going sharply lower.
Freakish Dub. Sorry.
If you mean from 1074 to 800 you are correct.
looks like good buying opportunities here. Might be a last call before the beginning of the launch. How can the Fed possibly raise rates any more? It didn't work. The only choice left is to expand the monetary base: bullish Ag and Au. Looks like patience will pay off. PM's are holding stronger than expected. Physical sales are through the roof all over developed countries. How long before the COMEX and LBMA run out of deliverable supply and China sets the price. If selling contracts to lower the price of PMs only hastens this process... what would you do if you were in charge? Already we're seeing the big fish take out chunks of PM deliverably supply from individuals to corporations to countries. Months? Couple years? Could it possible last longer?
Thats a no brainer 1 billion of that went to old yellers perm for TV , just remember the cash has more value when its fresh off the press!
Some people act like it's still 2011, when every green day meant the ramp was continuing. Zoom out. The ramp was over and done with long ago.
When was the S&P's all-time high? That would be May. What has it been doing since? Except for a severe downdraft in September, it's been going sideways for more than a year, before and after that high.
What just ended? ZIRP. What has happened since? The index lost 80 points and gained back 40.
People who want an instant Zombie Apocalypse, need to be scanning the horizon for mushroom clouds. This is a market collapse, which happen in slow motion; this one just like in 2000 and 2008. Even slower actually, because its magnitude is so much bigger.
"I want you to go to your window and open it and stick your head out and scream "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more!!""
Agreed. It's like arguing with people who said the Fed would never raise rates again (a pet peeve of mine). No, surely not, the Fed would never do anything to harm us. They're so dependable and trustworthy.
I respectfully disagree. I see no slow motion crash on the horizon. I see a decade of no returns whatsoever; with the markets having fits and starts all along the way. There will be day-to-day and month-to-month angst, but nothing so dramatic to cause even a slow speed apocalypse.
The world isn't built that way anymore, whether we like it or not. Technology added airbags to cars, autopilots that correct flight difficulties, and sprinkler systems to extinguish fires that would destroy a building 50 years ago. So it is with the markets. If we hit a financial tree, market turbulence, or an economic fire, things are in place to mute the effect. We may rightfully hate those things, but we can't ignore their existence. And much like irrationality, they can keep things going longer than you can remain solvent, or your worst-case scenario planning provides any ROI.
The counter-argument is that TPTB (whatever that means) are running out of bullets. I contend that argument doesn't quite understand the size of the armory. It's not 1918 anymore, and the problems are not Zimbabwe-esque. And, yes... everybody can expand debt until somebody has a motive to call in the notes. And nobody does. All parties need to keep the applecart upright and so it will continue for longer than anyone on this site will be alive.
I know that kind of thought is unpopular here, but it's just my perspective. I do appreciate this site despite the fact I'm usually swimming against the stream. You guys always make me think, and I like that.
A useful and reasoned counter analysis, and I see much of what you are saying.
Yet there is a limit to failsafe abilities and that limit is found in the simultaneous occurrence of multiple failsafe-demanding incidents. I am reminded of the annual fire season out here in the West. All the various departments band together to fight one big fire even if it isn't in their specific jurisdiction.
But what happens when the number of fires exceeds the united forces available? Triage. Some fires have to be left unattended or merely monitored while everyone battles other blazes. And fixing some failing financial systems can actually cause additional harm to other parts of the great machine.
Look around you. There are fires everywhere. And none of them are getting completely put out but merely sprayed down to the point where they continue to smoulder but do not offer any immediate risk.
Great point! The fire analogy is a good one. I guess we just have to make our own determination as to the financial fire fighting ability. I suppose that's why we alll come here to exchange ideas.
Your analogy makes me think you're from SoCal. If so, I hope you stay safe. It's quite weird that the problem there is so pervasive they have a website to track the multiple fires!
Here in the East, El Nino has given us some unusually nice weather. The chickens are still laying late into December. I had to give away eggs this month due to the unexpected winter production. High class problem I suppose.
Your false premise is that these current markets aren't manipulated. But they are. Technical analysis is worthless in manipulated markets. Worthless. Look at gold. Who sells 6,000 futures contracts at market except the government? The real question is when will the government lose control?
Your false premise is that these current markets aren't manipulated. But they are. Technical analysis is worthless in manipulated markets. Worthless. Look at gold. Who sells 6,000 futures contracts at market except the government? The real question is when will the government lose control?
I make no such premise. In fact, my post alludes to manipulation. Who is providing the market with an airbag?
Why should TRIN move in tandem with stocks? Can you show a chart since the incepetion of the S&P in 1957 and TRIN?
That would kind of be a useless chart, since TRIN is only useful intraday. But if the TRIN interests you. try barcharts.com. I have no afilliation with them, but I do check them out during the day.
If you keep spouting doom porn long enough, eventually you will be right! Today isn't that day.
Stopped clocks and such. I remember a conversation with a guy who was one of the best investors I ever met. Clearly an Aspergers guy, but really effective. He pointed out that bears always seem like the smartest guys in the room. They can give you a thousand very compelling reasons for the markets to go down. Bulls always sound kind of stupid, uninformed, or simply selling their book.
He's now playing tennis all day at the age of 53. I still go to work.
It's a small sample size, but the guy's words resonate with me daily.
Bulls are herd mentality, faddish people. Bears are original thinkers, realists. In the last several years, there have simply been more trends to get caught up in, more tech advances, more people in the market than in the past and therefore more bullish activity over longer periods of time. But as Andy Dufrane, also a smart guy, said in The Shawshank Redemption, "All good things never last."
+1. Nice post, and I have to give kudos to the Dufrane reference!
Is there something I'm missing? All the TRIN measures is the relative amount of volume to advancing and declining issues. Read another way, it's the volume-adjusted ratio of advance/declining stocks. Less than 1 is bullish. Which you show.
Not to say the premise isn't true. Markets get thin near the end of the year, for a lot of reasons which have been beaten to death. It just isn't shown with this particular indicator.
100% agree
Still waiting for Tyler to chime in...seems like such a...rookie? is that the right word? mistake.
You there bro?
I agree and commented in a similar fashion below before I saw your post.
Not to mention it is only "useful" intraday. Showing a time series graph of the Arms Index is about as useful as teats on a bull.
So the only thing that was ugly *puts on sunglasses* was Tyler's weaksauce analysis.
YYYYEAAAHHHHH
Even though some might say that we have all cried wolf too many times, the reality is that when the wolf comes he won't be on his own. There will be a whole pack of them which in turn will explain the multiple wolf warnings over the last few years.
By the way, I can see the powers to be freezing the market once it gets to a reasonable level. At that point all sales and purchases must take place at the prevailing price as at the date of the prize freeze.
THe next two weeks don't mean much, considering many traders on holiday now. Do the machines go on holiday also?
COT REPORT IN THE STOCK MARKET
https://sasafuturestrading.wordpress.com/
Only need to know one thing; size of the Fed balance sheet. If it moves little in 2016, the stock market will move little in 2016.
jackpot - but if the correlation is obvious once again, how will investors act? Follow the pied piper? Or grow far more concerned? And if the balance sheets grow where will the created funds end up... to the banks again where they don't lend it out? I'm thinking this is checkmate myself. Can't raise rates more. Too much decline (don't think seasonality can be blamed for such a warm winter) already. Best they can do is hold them but there is going to be such enormous pressure to expand their balance sheets and debase the currency to pay off interest on existing obligations because there is no legitimate engine for growth left. You can't keep an economy going solely by expanding the balance sheet of your central bank. Even they voiced concern about the trend. There is no genuine growth for interest to root in and grow. Even cashing in on war spoils isn't any kind of reasonable strategy for existence if no one has the disposable income to pay for anything. Even if the USD is the best off it's still interlocked through financial globalization with the wellness of the whole, as a single interwoven complex organism. Foreign risk might break down stability long before US markets lay die and don't get up. People who think there will be a decade of flat growth.... really?! lol... Don't think those people even know what they're saying. There already isn't any growth and the only thing keeping the whole merry-go-round spinning is an immense level of manipulation which is based on the promise that in just a little while longer growth will happen. So a decade of flat growth... gotta be kidding me people... really? Best prepare for an unusually interesting and volatile 2016. Im thinking in terms of counter party risk and hedging against foreign and domestic risk, very little looks as good as physical silver (small increments) burried in a fire safe locked box hidden well away and not to be found. This isn't shaping up to be a storm anyone wants to sail into if they don't have to. I'm pretty sure it is mathematically impossible, all things concerned, for a decade of no growth. There would be no point for investors to invest and there goes the market. Best wishes. Find happiness with your soul and life and try to appreciate special moments the best that you can because I fear a rosy outlook is not in question. On the positive it might be a good time to finance that car you always wanted - you may not end up having to make payments.... lol
One of these sundays, if I went to church, I would be waiting to hear "Our lord and savior........Apple".
You need to be saved by Lord Garwvey and his one begotten son Lord Carwver of the black gospel church of redemption gaww is black he built the pyramids
lmao
Not to mention FUGGIN’ BURNING HELL!!!
BALTIC DRY/SHIPPING
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=21193.msg1581780#msg1581780
DEFLATION STARTED!
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=80429.msg1580707#msg1580707
ECONOMIC DISASTER!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-16/economic-disaster
IRON ORE!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-22/top-iron-ore-shipper-predicts-prices-to-fall-19-in-2016
DR. COPPER!
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=254213.msg1580167#msg1580167
Maybe I'm wrong but the indices levels and nominal value of the arms index usually have an inverse relationship. As such, the anomaly is the early time period depicted in the chart.
I once read the book that "The Cinderella Man" movie was based on.What they don't show in
the movie is that a few of Braddocks coworkers on the docks were lawyers and accountants,the
white shoe brigade.New experience doing physical labor for them....
I finally figured out that the only way for me to beat this market,was to execute the exact opposite of every single trade I was going to do..Unfortuneately,this strategy failed miserably,too..I believe this is because when I know I'm going to do the opposite of something I was going to do,I actually do the opposite of something I wasn't going to do..Fuck it,I need another pull off the pipe..
I don't believe in Xmas miracle but I believe in Santa.
The Four Stages of Life:
TRIN is used incorrectly here. TRIN is not a measurement of breadth. it is a ratio adjusted measurement of volume. A lower TRIN shows that there is more volume in the up stocks rather than the down stocks. It is adjusted for the number of up and down stocks such that the breadth is irrelevant to the TRIN number. I.E. TRIN could be 0.5 and all it would show is that in up stocks vol was twice that in down stocks. If there was twice as many down or up stocks would make no difference to the number
Point is there is normally a strong correlation between TRIN and S&P price and the chart shows clearly that the two have diverged… Making one say hmmmmm…