This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Gartman Turns "Very, Very Quietly Bullish Of Crude" Even As Stock Prices Set To "Head Materially Lower"
Last week, everyone's favorite "world-renowned commodities guru" Gartman dipped his toe in a new trade, a EUR short, to wit:
Yesterday, December 17th, we sold another unit at 1.0865 giving us an average of 1.0970 and now we shall sit tight with the EUR trading 1.0930 A move “for an hour or so” above our average price shall be our stop.
Moments ago it broke out to 1.095 so we wait to see if Gartman's latest FX reco is again stopped out in under a week.
So that was then, but what about now? Well, in his latest daily letter, Gartman is now suggesting that the downtrend in stocks will continue...
Given that the markets yesterday traced out what the technicians often refer to as an “inside” day where the lows and the highs of the day are bounded within the range of the previous day and given that such “inside” days are almost always continuation patterns, we fear that prices are soon to head lower… and perhaps materially so. Thus, it is not only wise, it is reasonable, that we shall increase the size of our derivatives positions to make quite certain that our net long position is covered completely and that we are indeed as “net neutral” as we can possibly be.
... even though in the very same letter Gartman thinks that the primary catalyst for any correlated market move, namely crude oil, is poised to rise
... we do find ourselves quietly… very, very quietly… turning away from being manifestly and overtly bearish of crude to being bullish as the term structures continue to shift; that is, as the contangos continue to narrow. Note that the averaged front month contango for Brent and WTI has now narrowed to $7.86/barrel from $8.10 yesterday… from $7.97 a week ago. As noted here yesterday, the contangos have narrowed even as the spot price has weakened and this we find to be an anomaly, the sort of which happens at turning points. Attention then must be paid.
How is one to make sense of this contradiction? We don't know, although we are concerned about gold: last night on Fast Money, the guru who invests with his retirement account said he is long gold, and "will get longer at $1085." Hardly the news gold bulls wanted to hear.
»
- 187 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
There will come a time when all commodities become kings. This "strong dollar" scenario we find ourselves in is a complete load.
-Argenta
Shortin crude over here boss.
I wonder how would Dennis look TARRED and FEATHERED… ;-)
Looney
I'm buying in at $25
Will somebody just pour 2 quarts of motor oil down this @sshole's throat already?
Why? He gives solid investment advise, you just have to know how to interpret it. He says sell, you buy, what more could you want? It is like the new BTFD.
Oil meet "kiss of death" Gartmans approval.
No sh*t, have to close out my long positions right now. Can't watch the markets full time but if I can remember to watch that a** clown on fast money I can at least protect myself by doing the opposite of whatever he does.
Like a fat-assed black swan.
Fast Money = Chimp City
Fast Money = Chimp City
Fast Money = Chimp City
Ok, so short oil, long Euro, long stocks and short gold. Thanks for the fade ideas Gartman.
That is my understanding as well, or at least it is an indication that you should hedge accordingly.
Could this fat man be right, just once in awhile?
Broken Clock theory is always an option. So yes he might be right. Eventually he has to be right about something. A batting average of 0.000000000000001 means at some point a batter got a hit.
No. Short oil now. This dude is money.
You called him "dude". I am offended.
You have to love his flowery use of language as he describes one losing position after another.
Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
https://youtu.be/D1n5CQe1krI
Got it. Gold hangs around 1085 for an half hour or so then retests the 1050ish support.
Said he was long gold last night. Which means I got wait awhile before I add to my boat ballast
God damnit. I was about to buy some summer '16 contracts. Glad Gartman saved me from making that mistake.
the goldbugz are going to hate this
Some people shouldn't be allowed near money.
I think Gartman just likes to say "contango"
If you bet on oil to go up...then also hedge that it is going doan..how do you make any money????
Differing amounts, strike prices, expirations, equities, buy and write options, futures, and arbitrage. I used to do some exotic hedging but mostly I found it to be account, time, and hair diminishing although I had a few moments of brilliance. You need volatility to make money generally speaking. There are hundreds of vehicles and methods that one can employ. It's mostly a pain in the ass.
These days I just keep it simple.
This is what I am confused about...it seems like a lot of work to play it safe....if you think oil is going up...buy it...if you think its going down...sell it...a much simpler trade
It depends. Sometimes I would establish a position and my trade would go the other way and I found myself hedging rather than just unwinding the original position and taking a loss. Or sometimes, as in the fall of 2008, I was shorting and buying puts and adding a few calls for insurance. I used puts to insure large gains and lock them in. This is a simple strategy that I think a lot of people should be employing now. I think it just depends on your goals but mostly I agree with you. I try to keep it simple these days.
Btw what's with the down voters? Fucking weird. Did Huffpo go down this a.m.?
I prefer the loss, get liquid, not lose more time and make another trade, but I also wait for the rebound even if it is small so that my loss is diminished even if by a little.
is that why we have such sensible pricing and predictability? Fellas like you?
You, Sir, are America itself. And don't you ever forget it.
....broken clocks....blind squirrels and nuts.....if youre going to forecast, forecast often
given the full spectrum of contrasting trades, he'll be right in some form....every letter write has to be able 'see, told ya' every now and again or put another way throw all the shit on the wall, see what sticks, and then say 'see i knew that shit would stick'
crude will hit $25 in 2016.
valentines day seems about right.
the overriding attitude in all mkts though, is that everything will dip/dive and then roar back. like 2000 and 2008. we havent had a truly societal psychological grind like the depression and like the 70's stagflation now for 40 years. THATs, imo, what will be the difference this time---years, until all trust and hope in financial prices is extinguished and people revert back to saving cash in their dressers. and of course that will be the time to buy for the long haul, like for your gr kids, itll be 1942/1982 all over again.
imagine the heartache the energy investors will feel buying hand over fist at $25, putting in $45/bbl into ther spreadsheets only to have it ebb and flow for years while their leveraged bets barely keep pace with inflation. slo-mo generational shift and reset. get out of debt, build cash....then buy the dirt for a shopping plaza and lease it out for 50 yrs
Gartman is guru of BS.I bet the only money he makes is off his CNBC contract of fraud and deceit.Oh yea and the few people sucked into paying for his crappy letter.
I love how the entire ZH site is triple long the anti-gartman ETF.
Fuck Gartman.
I just found this sweet little candy cane stock.
I think I'm going to hold onto it until Valentine's Day then dump it on some fuckin' mook.
We'll see who laughs least, Gartman, you beautiful skidmark upon Middle-earth.
I bet he drinks juice too.
Gold/oil ratio at 30? Bullish oil. Short gold. Gold should be at 700 right now. Or oil should be 53 right now.
Best sign that Crude is going lower!
The new rule of the "markets" appears to be that stocks are not allowed to drop below the previous day's close. The hard bounces the last two days are awfully suspicious.
Why give Gartman so much space here? Borrrring!
I have come to believe that is is some sort of indicator. If Gartman goes Bull it indicates you should consider going Short and viceversa.
I'm starting a Go Fund Me campaign for Gartman bobble-head dolls... They'll be all the rage in '16.
Yes, yes, but the 2016 model will have to go left-to-right instead of up and down.
Knomesayin?
The probablity of you losing money by taking the advese position to that of Gartmans, is very low.
Why do we still listen to these Tee-Vee clowns?
Ahhfk.