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Atlanta Fed Q4 GDP Forecast Tumbles To Lowest Yet, Sliding To 1.3%
Moments ago, after the latest disappointing durable goods report, the Goldman economist team was the first to cut its Q4 GDP forecast from 2.2% to 1.9% (and down from 2.4% yesterday), saying "the durable goods report implied weaker capital spending and inventory accumulation for the quarter; details on November consumer spending were also slightly weaker than we had projected."
But even with this downward revision by the traditionally optimistic sellside, it was clear the real number would be even lower: after all 1.9% was the Atlanta Fed's most recent "nowcast" as of December 16, before the latest disappointing data.
Sure enough, according to the just revealed latest forecast by the most accurate forecaster of GDP, the Atlanta Fed, with all the latest data in hand, the US economy is now estimated to have grown just 1.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 1.9%, and the lowest print it has had throughout the forecast period which started in late October.
From the Atlanta Fed:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.3 percent on December 23, down from 1.9 percent on December 16. After yesterday's third-quarter GDP revision and this morning's personal income and outlays release, both from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.6 percent to 2.1 percent. The nowcast for real residential investment growth fell from 8.0 percent to 0.9 percent after yesterday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.
Worse, if one infers that cold weather had a negative impact on US GDP as was widely said to be the case in 2013 and 2014, then the current period of abnormally warm weather suggests that the "triple-seasonally adjusted" GDP, when stripping away the benefits of balmy weather, is even lower.
If this number persists, it will mean that just as the Fed was hiking rates, the economy once again slowed down to just above stall speed, and absent a dramatic improvement over the next few quarters Yellen will have little choice but to either halt the Fed's rate hike cycle or to reverse it.
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Mommy, will we ever get out of this depression?
Anyone else notice the Euro vs USD is taking a nose dive. Is the ECB doing something?
Who could have seen that coming, oh wait.
Who could have seen that coming, oh wait.
Prediction: One and done.
Should be just fine to pump this market up for year end Wall Street bonuses!!
What depression? this here is the boom times!!
When your neighbors are in the streets with torches and pitchforks, then the real depression will have commenced!!
Don't worry, won't be long now.
Keep the faith in FIAT!
LOL.
Seriously though, many never recovered from 2007/2008 and this next leg down takes more with it.
When did Al Roker start forecasting GDP for the Atlanta Fed...?
After the 5th time he shit his pants in the White House.
No matter what the elite says or does, we are heading toward hard times. The only thing left to do is lie themselves and everybody else.....
According to Cramer Christmas sales are dismal because of all the warm weather. Nobody wants to shop for Christmas when it's so nice outside, What an idiot.
You insult idiots everywhere with that comparison......
True indeed. Well its not like he can talk about the working American in a total rut. He can't talk about how bartenders, Waiters and Waitresses will never grow an economy. He can't talk about how simply pushing paper from one stack to somebody else's stack doesn't build capital. He can't talk about deliberate de-industrialization of the US is making our living standard depreciate. He can't talk about endless warfare bankrupting our nation. He can't talk about.... I could go on for hours but I am only preaching to the quire.
Merry Christmas, Doc!
Cramer said that? I haven't been paying much attention to the sales figures. Although I did see CNBS this morning say that recent USPS shipping volumes are up 15% YoY, higher than the 10% expected for last minute shipping needs.
Had a friend point this out as well, telling me everything is awesome and that the economy is coming back. I rolled my eyes.
From what I understand online purchases are more than brick and mortar this year. But I also hear that Visa/Master card total spending is down. So more shipping needed but less overall purchases. We will see, not that I expect accurate reporting.
Merry Christmas.
It's true, he said that and I almost spit our m morning coffee. It kills me how they will do anythin they can to keep from telling the truth about why the eCONomy sucks. Instead there is a never ending stream of excuses.
Market is on fire. Everything is AWESOME just enjoy Christmas, max out that CC and enjoy the crap
Should be no problem, gotta get it 'green for the year' ....you know....so Fed can have credibility.
So what is the stock that is going to be positively effected long term? What can I buy and get a Huuuuge payout in five years?
sweet jesus, its a xmas miracle. mrkt up, shit gets worse and no one gives a crap.. opportunity, rabbits for all..
News today is; "Approximately 62% of Americans have less than $1,000 in their savings accounts."
Recovery? How? Why?
The market is UP, isn't that enough proof for you that GDP, earnings, and fundamentals DON'T MATTER???!!
Like a Hollywood set, we just have to give the impression of economic growth for the sheeple to keep calm and keep believing in FIAT.
These markets are such a fucking joke. They're going to get hammered in January. At least my gold shorts are doing well, so I can get some more physical next month.
Closer to 0 than 3....
Here it comes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6DJ7cYS4MA