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China Proposes A Fix For Its Crashing Housing Market: "Transplant" 100 Million Farmers Into Its Cities
Following China's Central Economic Work Conference which concluded on Monday, and which mapped out China's economic priorities for next year, global markets soared on speculation that China will, once again, unleash some form of stimulus, which in turn sent commodities surging over the past three days even though ironically any incremental injections, monetary or fiscal, will simply force domestic producers - already on the brink of bankruptcy - to produce more, export even more, and accelerate the global deflationary tide which earlier today forced the US to fire the first trade war salvo after the Department Of Commerce announced Chinese steel imports will be taxed at 256%.
What the market once again is missing is that when it comes to China, it is no longer a question whether the PBOC or Beijing will inject a few billion into the economy (which have a "credit impulse" halflife of a few weeks at most) which they may well do, but a question of leverage: with consolidated debt/GDP of over 300% as of the end of this quarter (compared to 282% a year ago), China is now the most levered nation in the world behind Japan, more so than even the US.
Until this leverage comes down substantially, either through defaults or inflation, China will no longer be the world growth dynamo as it was in the early and mid days of the financial crisis, when it had "only" 160% in leverage.
As such it is only natural to fade the market's now traditional bullish misinterpretation of what China tried to convey to the market.
However, one thing that did catch our attention, is that for the first time, China officially admitted not only that it has a major housing bubble in the form of a massive excess inventory overhang, but that unless addressed said bubble could lead to an even greater crash in the economy.
According to the official mouthpiece of the communist party, Xinhua, "China will continue to actively destock its massive property inventory
over concerns that the ailing housing market could derail the economy."
Xinhua adds that along with cutting overcapacity and tackling debt, destocking will be a major task in 2016. This is key because not only does it preclude any speculation about more stimulus, it actually suggests that Beijing is far more focused on the risks emanating from the overindebted economy and thus actually reducing leverage.
It was here that, in a rare moment of rationality and insight, China's political leaders actually made a lot of sense: they admitted that the main reason why China's housing market is moribund is because as a result of the housing bubble which burst in 2014, prices are still too high, and need to come down substantially more!
"Obsolete restrictive measures [in the property market] will be revoked," said the statement, without specifying which "restrictive measures" it was referring to. To rein in house prices, China has been trying to curb real estate speculation, with policies such as "home purchase restriction" that only allows registered residents to buy houses. It is believed the restrictive policies mainly affected the property markets in third- and fourth-tier cities, which saw the most supply glut.
As we have shown before, and as Xinhua adds, "the property market took a downturn in 2014 due to weak demand and a supply glut. This cooling continued into 2015, with sales and prices falling, and investment slowing."
Furthermore, as we have also shown before, when it comes to household wealth, in China real estate is of far greater importance for the perception of wealth than the stock market - in fact, as a percentage of relative wealth, for Chinese residents the real estate market is the equivalent to the stock market for Americans.
Xinhua confirms as much saying that "property investment's GDP contribution in the first three quarters of this year hit a 15-year low of 0.04 percent. The property market is vital to steel and cement manufacturers, as well as furniture producers; its poor performance would breed financial risks."
So far, all of this surprisingly makes a lot of sense as China demonstrates an impressive ability to diagnose the causes of its economic slowdown.
Where things, however, suddenly veer dramatically off course and into sheer delusion, is China's proposal how to "solve" its affliction.
In brief, Beijing is hoping to "transplant" 100 million farmers into registered urban residents, who no longer being migrant workers, will rush to buy real estate in the process soaking up some of the millions of vacant square meters of excess capacity real estate. At least that's how the thinking goes: "attendees of the meeting agreed that rural residents that move to urban areas should be allowed to register as residents, which would encourage them to buy homes in the city. Property developers have been advised to reduce home prices, according to the statement."
More from Xinhua:
Nearly 55 percent of the population live in cities but less than 40 percent are registered to do so. There are around 300 million migrant workers but most are denied "hukou" (official residence status). In addition to housing rights, a hukou gives the holder equal employment rights and social security services, and their children are allowed to be enrolled in city schools.
Starting next year, China will roll out policy to transform 100 million farmers into registered urban residents, according to Xu Shaoshi, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, on Tuesday. No deadline for completion was specified.
The punchline: "Ni Pengfei, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, estimated that if 70 percent of migrant workers buy homes in the cities, it would solve the 2.2 billion square meters of housing inventory."
And since these migrant workers would be unable to afford local homes at going rates, they would get preferential prices: the government is suggesting a reduction of home prices. The monthly income for migrant workers in 2014 was 2,864 yuan (440 U.S. dollars), while property can easily exceed 10,000 yuan per square meter. People's Daily, the flagship newspaper of the ruling Communist Party of China, added in an editorial on Wednesday that "cutting home prices is an inevitable and wise option for developers in destocking, particularly for those in third- or fourth-tier cities."
At this moment we are supposed to forget the disastrous consequences of what happened when China tried to "transplant" 100 million farmers into stock traders, and just focus on real estate, where we will admit that in theory, this idea may even make sense: 100 million potential buyers granted deeply discounted home prices will do miracles for China's ghost cities and millions of vacant apartments. Because, quite simply, what the Politburo is proposing, is to dramatically accelerate the rural-to-urban migration that has been taking place over the past 30 years, and to pull forward some 10 years of urban worker migration.
There is just one problem - or rather risk - and it happens to be the one which only we touched upon over a month ago, in "Here Is The Biggest, And Most Underreported, Risk Facing China", a risk which has since been picked up by both the NYT and the WSJ: social upheaval and public unrest.
As we have been discussing over the past two months, most recently yesterday in "China's Cost To Avoid The Dreaded Working Class Revolution: A Record CNY11.1 Trillion, And Rising", while China's biggest economic problems are record debt and excess capacity, the biggest risk is a suddenly very angry population which can no longer find either employment or acceptable wages.
The result has been a record surge in labor strikes in the past few years, culminating with November of 2015, a record month.
So what does Beijing think will happen when its already imploding commodity companies, those who happen to be the biggest employers across the country, are faced with 100 million new able-bodied workers, all recently moved into their brand new urban apartments which cost them far less than comparable costs for existing employees?
The answer: a deflationary wage neutron bomb, as millions upon millions of these migrant workers are hired over their already employed peers, who are suddenly expendable now that more ambitious, and less demanding workers are there to fill their shoes: expendable in a country of of 1.4 bilion without any social safety net! Which is great news for the 100 or so million migrants... and very bad news for the 100 million existing workers whom they will replace.
What happens then? The same thing that we have been showing ever since 2014 when we presented China's riot police drills against a "working class insurrection"... drills which took place because it is only a matter of time before China has to deal with the real thing.
The conclusion: China has shown admirable aptitude in diagnosing its problem, and a terrifying lack of vision in its proposed solution. Then again, since none of the other conventional avenues to boost the housing market are available, perhaps it makes sense: with no other options, Beijing is resorting to only measure it knows will work if only for a while, before social unrest finally gets out of control.
Then again, the "developed countries" are not doing anything more prudent: the western central banks know well they have blown the biggest asset bubble ever, one which will have dire consequences, far worse than the aftermath of the Lehman collapse, but the prerogative is simple: kick the can for as long as possible or else accelerate the social collapse as all modern and insolvent Ponzi schemes are exposed.
Is it any wonder that China is now doing precisely the same?
At the end, both "solutions" are doomed to an explosive failure, but for now sit back and just enjoy every day as it comes along, and try not to think too much about the future: with the increasingly more chaotic decisions made by the "leaders" of the developed and emerging worlds, there may not be one.
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"Thank you Vice Public Security Minister Meng Qingfeng!" - Thomas Freidman
Apparently I'm going to have to step it up a notch ;-)
All your farm are belong to us.
It's like the Great Leap Forward 2.0!
Mao would be sooo proud, look at how far they've come ;-)
This is more like 'Agenda 21' - er, Agenda 2030. Forced relocations. Seems to be happening on a global scale lately...
Farmers in every country are getting schlonged.
What happened to Farm Aid?
"Forced relocations" ... sort of like Barry's importing 100k refugees to America?
Something the fuck is very wrong with this and it ain't gonna work ....
Sure.... Just give everybody a Section 8 voucher... it's propped up property prices here in the US just fucking fine
Idiots
All the weapons in the world won't matter once ISIS army kick into gear!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gq_su8XIpZU
i have a crawl space for rent, knee pads manditory.
how about this: 1/2 floors, divide an 8 foot room in to 4 foot heights with a ladder to your "top floor", x-tra for top floor, of course. crawl home baby, crawl to daddy bitchez...
"Forced relocations" ... sort of like Barry's importing 100k refugees to America?"
That was PER year just for Islam,not counting Hispanics.
Ok, lets at least get the fundamentals correct. There are no forced relocations. Not a sudden migration from farms. These guys & gals are already working in cities.
China operates a registration system to control who is eligible to certain support mechanisms and rights (like property ownership) offered by local government. These people who have already moved from other villages/towns/provinces are still registered in their place of origin. The proposal is the registration system be relaxed so they may shift registration to their current city of domicile and then be eligible to buy property (amongst other things).
Silly human. Farm Aid is for Monsanto!
nailed it....so, the plan is to destroy the value of village homes to prop up the value of oligarch development projects in the cities.
great plan!! and how will those migrant workers get from their newly aquired high rise home to the place where they work to earn their $440 per/month? taxi? that's a great plan!!
even better, buy a new CAR and support the oligarch in the auto industry...spend 3 hours a day in traffic jams supporting the oligarch in the oil industry, and developing lung cancer along the way, eventually supporting the oligarchs in the healthcare industry.
central planning SUCKS!!
I can't wait until I have to work 3-4'months to afford that one square foot that will be all mine in the mega city of the future.
With a place to stand that is my very own, who says private property rights are dead?
Ah, but you'll have to work another 3.5 years to earn enough square footage of space above that one square foot to encompass your body, and that won't include the air you breath. That's extra. And you won't even own the mining rites.
they don't call it a foot for no reason, ha...
a half a foot is standing on one leg, next answer.
here is your half foot, don't loose your balance, next solulution a toe(sq inch=1/144 of sq ft), subdivions leverage 144:1!-bankers dream, ballet dancers, the next housing boomet, ha again...
*POOF* Poor farmer to Instant middle class.....
Finally, now they can start buying their own shit and cut america COMPLETELY out of the equation!
Think of the possibilities! One hundred million *actual* farmers can suddenly afford knock-off smartphones and begin playing games on them. China will quickly become the world's premier Farmville superpower!
Now we know why all those Ghost Cities were built.
Ok, Farmer Chan, you must leave your farm and move to residential zone 6-14-Z-Unit 4. We're selling it to you for 1 yawn, we're taking your farm. You owe us a million yawns for our efforts. Better find a job quick in that empty city or we'll have just one more talk.
no, the ghost cities were built so that corrupt government officials and their crony building contractors could both get rich on unneccessary projects and then launder the money in macau casinos and in buying mansions in vancouver and sydney
While I do think this is exactly what the contractors are doing, I would also argue that the bureacrats from their offices in Beijing genuinely believed the spin they were being given in their field reports. Or, they were at least paid enough to believe them.
As a scientist by training, I like to explain it this way: some high level bureaucrat/politician wants to have some fried ice to eat, and the legit scientists tell him that this is really not possible. So he fires those types and gets the guy who figures that at the right temperature and pressure he could engineer some hot ice, but the moment it comes out of the pressure vessel it's going to detonate in the politician's face. But for the sake of his paycheck he won't say that, and let one of his students serve it up so they get the blame.
This is just the latest step in economic fried ice. Given that picture of the entire company of cops cowering behind shields from two guys with sticks, I don't think China has the resources to pay for a big enough "pressure vessel" to contain 100 million farmers should they choose not to go along with it.
Read the article. They are proposing to give urban residency to migrant workers who are already there. Nothing there about uprooting 100 million farmers.
China is losing control of their vast population and they know it. So they are going to implement the UN Agenda 2030 ASAP in an attempt to take back control before it all blows up!
http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2015/12/as-events-spiral-ou...
Oh yeah, the reverse Pol Pot. Instead of the "killing fields" it will be the "killing cities".
"Stay on the farm, boy." -- me
Goodbye Yellow Brick Road
those fuckers are industrious. if the populace gets mad enough heads are gonna roll.
Play That Funky Music - Wild Cherry (1976)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRr2kf84V2M (4:56)
I kinda like that one ;-)
Pray dat funky moosic Mao boy
Pray dat funky moosic RIGHT!
Better hide those glasses, boy. You look - intelligent...
Sounds like the Obama plan
Obama is forcing indebted people to move to apartment complexes that haven't been built, and probably never will. Big difference
The largest cultural upheaval in history; bigger than Peter the Great, greater than the Bolshevik revolution, Mao, the French Revolution, and even more so than the American Revolution.
Billions of people in a country which now controls a large % of manufacturing capacity and military might.
Huge implications for the rest of the World, huge.
Huge implications allright but they share a border with Russia.
The best thing we could do right no is just pull anchor and rehost in our own domain and wait.
it won't be 25 years and they'll be killing each other unless we keep agitating them enough to have them ignore each other.
As an aside, perhaps this was all planned from the begiining to demonize central bank authority. A true PTB world utopia would disallow any over building, over production and have a global one world currency that is coming to a town near you to manage that.
Schlonged
Misogynist! ;-)
Central planners gonna plan.
It's like watching Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius in action.
"I'll take captial misallocation for 1 gerzillion Alex."
Or just import 100 million Africans and call them 'dreamers'.
Or import 100 million Americans, Dutch, German, and call them debt slaves. They will be moved to their respectively themed city when train stops.
Everyone of those vacant apartments is owned by a middle class citizen as an investment. This will squelch riots when one class wins while one class lose.
Foreign investors and developers/architects focused on China's city planning - each from Holland, Germany, Paris, US. Construction stops when money is short and begins again when the funds show up. Notice no theaters, nightclubs, restaurants, city parks. These cities are prisons. Suicide is preferred to the old farmers than to living in this life the wealthy class created in order to replenish their treasure chests of loot. Rich stay rich by stealing from the poor. The entire world is in danger and if we could all realize 400 people have sent 6 billion into hell through a well-designed and considerably efficient killing machine called our life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EBN9TiUqNs 60 minutes LESLIE! (edit) Stahl 2013 - 12 min - China's ghost city covered.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCmC9Un8Vy8 - Poor construction (3 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1ZsVUB_-qg Australia's 60 min also does a great job on this subject.
Americans, Dutch, German debt slaves are capable of significant productivity without the feral proclivity. BIG difference.
It would also be interesting to see what the male to female ratio is in that nation. My guess is too, too many men, not nearly enough women. Time for a war. To thin out the herd.
If farmers are in cities, many wil starve. Depopulation.
Fucking morons. And I bet the fkheads in DC dream and droll over the day they can get away with shit like this. LEAVE US THE GODDAMN FUCK ALONE!!!!!
Who - really - didn't see this coming?
Yup. "If you build it, they will come". And if not, then force 'em outta the corn.
Brilliant...Take somebody who knows how to grow/raise their own food and move him into a hive situation where the paycheck depends on exporting whatever crap the factory makes.
All those empty cities and millions of "Syrian refugees". Sounds made for each other.
You could probably get the US to pay for it with more money borrowed from China -- so long as Wall Street gets it's cut of course.
Can you imagine what the future holds if the current global leaders are the visionaries? It should be similar to a combination of Soylent Green and Blade Runner. I hope you all enjoy eating other people to stay alive on a poisoned dying planet while these mf'ers live on Elysium.
On the bright side of life the announcement of the rapidly accelerated Agenda 21 relocation plan seems more like someone is scared. The globalist criminals don't rush anything. There's too much chance for blow back and to figure out what they're up to.
In case anyone didn't notice the France Climate announcement. Here's a quote (while they cowered behind many layers of heavily armed security in a country under martial law because of a few alleged terrorists.):
OBAMA: "Our task here in Paris is to turn these achievements into an enduring framework for progress. Not a stop gap solution but a long term strategy. That gives the world confidence in a low carbon future."
Let's just say I hope you're not made of carbon or your futures options are set for an early expiration if they succeed. No carbon credits accepted for useless eaters only profitable corporations.
Our task? Why does that sound familiar? Oh yeah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1AMYHHAXhI
i think the premise of this article is mistaken. the 100 million 'farmers' are the workers w/o residency status who are already in the cities working but have no rights as to property. the purpose of the proposal is to allow these 'non residents' the proper rights so as to soak up the excess inventory. from the chinese perspective it sounds like a quick fix. for some of us though.... imagine losing your property rights just because you moved to another city!
+1
Who's going to grow the food?
These people are mostly subsistence farmers. They grow enough for their own family and that's it. They don't have any extra to sell. If you ever went to China and went to the countryside you would see postage stamp sized "farms" using medieval farming methods. At best they have a rototiller. Mostly they are hacking at the ground with hand tools. If 95% of these people had another way to make a living, the hedgerows could be eliminated and one man with a tractor could farm efficiently. I grew up on a farm and I shake my head when I see this.
When I was in South Korea, I saw the opposite. i saw very efficent, prodcuctive methods. One man with a tractor could farm a large area and ship a lot of food to the cities. China should send their farmers there for training.
Better yet let con agra help the Chinese by helping them to farm the newly uninhibited farmland corporate-style! You can bet some corporations and well connected Chinese govt officials are also benefitting from this plan which seems, on the surface, to be lacking in insight. This is literally a land grab.
Farmer's markets and road side stands are being outlawed. Family farms belong in our world. Factory farms and GMO, overpopulated livestock living in unconscionable conditions, seedless and lacking flavor but a longer shelf life is the other option.
Invested eh?
"If 95% of these people had another way to make a living..."
But with existing overcapacity in manufacturing there will not likely be an alternative in the near future.
Having some experience with both US and Chinese banking and political cultures I still can't figure out if the Chinese are copying America, or if America is copying China.
I remember drown-proofing oneself. Tying your hands behind your back in a swimming pool and slowing learning to expel just enough energy to kick yourself up to get your head above water for a breath and then sinking back into the depths in a silent scream. Again. And Again. And Again.
What is tragically hilarious is that both groups of elites are dealing with global deflation in that after three decades of "engagement," crashing commodity prices, global liquid labor markets as reflected in China's floating population, the H1-B circus, or Europe and America's MENA and Central American migrations are all desperately trying to prop-up Asset Classes (here housing) as held by the Banks.
The simple fact is our Debt is the Bank's Assets - their political strength, but the current existential crisis is that the multitudes of (literally) staggering global workers amid over a decade of structural dis-employment are being asked to keep housing prices up for the banks and some limited tranche of investors. Look at the steps the FDIC and OCC went through to enact a nationwide forbearance on US housing - all while US employment continues to sink.
Amazingly, whether it's some hukuo reversion, Section 8 housing vouchers, readjusted NAR stats or adjusted foreign REIT investment rules - all the debt is being asked to be serviced by shrinking wages. 100,000 new people on the planet EVERY DAY.
Maybe the numbers work if TWO households are squeezed into ONE unit, but not only are the national debts unsustainable, but after a few years of Alphabet's and IBM's quantum machine learning there will not be ANY jobs to services the bank's debt.
I guess the Singularity will find you in a Manhattan sublet or squatting in a rice paddy.
"I still can't figure out if the Chinese are copying America, or if America is copying China." Yeah, a head-scratcher for sure. I think that the US PTB cooked up the notion of destabilizing China by unleashing the American Virus, er, a, Dream on China. "all the debt is being asked to be serviced by shrinking wages. 100,000 new people on the planet EVERY DAY." It's the way of the Ponzi! Since ALL interest and principal can NEVER be fully paid we've just pretended that it's possible, we've fabricated growth numbers in oder to cook the books that tell us everything is fine. Problem is is that eventually there's a call on real assets/money. With world-wide growth now starting to enter terminal decline and starting to take out actual people with it the cat is starting to escape the bag. "Maybe the numbers work if TWO households are squeezed into ONE unit, but not only are the national debts unsustainable, but after a few years of Alphabet's and IBM's quantum machine learning there will not be ANY jobs to services the bank's debt." Yes, eventually you have to come around to realizing that there's just not the potential for enough productivity to pay off our debts, no matter how many people are crammed into an "housing unit." The next big debt clearing is going to result in a LOT of lives lost. If we should survive as a species I believe it's imperative that we understand that basing our existence on a premise of perpetual growth on a finite planet is NOT the thing to do: "go forth and multiply" was a REALLY bad set of instructions (failing any follow-on- could have been given instruction on what the exponential function means; instead, it was "debt jubilee"- keep racking the game!).
It's snowing again
Is not depopulation of the countryside an agenda 21 goal?
YES IT IS
The premise of this article is wrong and perhaps done in error. The Chinese government is now allowing the registration of all unregistered Chinese persons without residency permits to register in the city of their choice. The numbers of unregistered who work in the shadow economy could be as large as 100 Million but more likely 60 Million. These people are far away from buying up a house - more likely to rent. Life is now expensive in China.
It is the march to the west.
hehe.
There
are
no
jobs
for
the
people
moving
to
the
cities
EBT and or riots?
Suicide. Concrete blondge is behind the facade of characterless urban jungle and sitting on a bench staring at it during any free time is the other choice is for the ADD inflicted children who have been medicated and engineered to find entertainment in their own enslavement process. Smart Phones, my pretty.
This not news. Well, maybe to ZH. For years China has planned to move 300 million rural citizens to the cities. It is part of the shift from an exporting economy to a domestic one. Already, 200 million ismigrant workers are in the cities building the infrastructure. They live in barracks-like housing near their work. They send most of their paycheck back to their family in the rural village. They would to have a permanent home where they could have their family join them.
Nobody is being "forced" to move to the cities. Being a subsistence farmer is no fun. I have been in these country people's homes and eaten with their families. Most of the children had never seen a white person except on TV. Life in the city would give them manufacturing jobs, education, health care, western style housing with running watger and indoor plumbing and central heat. Of course, ZH is unaware of this because he has never been to China. It is hard to miss 200 million people living in temporary housing with blue roofs.
When the manufacturing jobs become available, they will be moved. Otherwise, they would be living in tents and under highway overpasses.
If blatant, rampant and unadulterated corruption did not prevail within every industry, and China was not communistic, perhaps your thought would be worthy of consideration.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/11/opinion/heng-chinas-anti-corruption-ca... - Crack down on corruption stops at the steps of those giving the orders.
https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2015/february/country-report...
"The People’s Republic of China, established in 1949, is a socialist one-party state ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Power is centralized in the CCP and the support of the People’s Liberation Army and a well-developed internal security system safeguards political stability. The availability of information is heavily controlled by the government. Press freedom and freedom of speech are heavily restricted, while the judiciary is not independent. As a result, developments in China, especially political ones, remain clouded and difficult to gauge due to lack of transparency. In recent years, President Xi Jinping has launched a far reaching anti-corruption campaign, which has helped him to increase his personal power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgRgjw-kJvU
Rural-to-urban Migration in Chinahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhIZ50HKIp0 =
Part 1 of 8 "Under The Dome" Documentary on China's Pollution by Chai Jing (Best English Subtitles)China's pollution is The USA's chemtrails. Controlling the weather, creating floods, landslides, destroyed crops and infrastructure via EQs, industrial accidents (explosions) as a means to an end. Like a switch, pollution disappears and reappears.
I see from all those quotes and credits that you get all your knowledge from 2nd and third hand sources. When did you ever walk around in China and talk to the people to get information? You are just a puppet for the media. You don't know anything on your own.
@ bunnyswanson
"The availability of information is heavily controlled by the government."
There is the Great Fire Wall, but I am able to use Zero Hedge and write this without using a VPN.
Dude, you sound so much like a statist, UN, ZH plant, that I may become uncivil on your ass.
(Considering Canadian Citizenship, this was my test run.)
"During the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644), a Ming emperor conferred eight surnames upon the Jews, by which they are identifiable today: Ai, Shi, Gao, Gan, Jin, Li, Zhang, and Zhao. By the beginning of the 20th century one of these Kaifeng clans, the Zhang, had largely converted to Islam.[3]"
https://www.radioislam.org/islam/english/jewishp/china/jew-opium-monopol...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edhtdoPukk0 - Chinese Jews from Kaifeng arrive in Israel 2009 interviews 3 min
Wow! Radio Islam as a source of facts! What next? The Bible?
Get real. Go outside and find out for yourself.
I am a retired American who lives in China. I get tired of hearing people who have never been within 7000 miles of China having strong opinions about things they know nothing about. They have their heads full of "information" that would be funny if they weren't so vitriolic.
Believe it or not, Chinese people are different than westerners. There is a fundamental divide in values. To the Chinese, the most important thing is the smooth and peaceful functioning of society. To westerners, this is hard to understand. What in America is called rugged individualism is seen as a failure of a person to do his duty to family and society. That person is an embarrassment and a loser.
You don't have to agree with it. Just realize that in tough times it is better to be together as a group than scattered as individuals.
:)
The way you have a peaceful and smooth running society is to have a culture that respects the rights of the individual and a social structure that limits the concentration of power in the hands of the few. This is not about 'values' this is objectively how it is.
It is plainly the massive and coercive actions of the Chinese State that is destabalizing their own society. They have destroyed their stock market, crippled their internet, fostered this insane construction boom, now they are looking to force relocate people to fix that. The errors multiply.
There are no feedback mechanisms to correct the actions of the State, especially when the State is autocratic and/or is not using hard money like gold that it cannot control. Without self-correcting feedback mechanisms, the State eventually runs wild and destroys the society.
If I invest my money into a new business and said business is a flop, I lose said investment. If said business is successful more and more resources accumulate to this business to the extent it provides value to the society. The core benefit of free markets is that they prune bad allocation of resources and reward useful ones. You only get free markets with property rights, social rights, and the rest however.
In short, if you have a value for desiring a peaceful and smooth running society you need free markets and individual liberty. Those are necessary, if not sufficient, to have a peaceful and smooth running society. Rugged individualism is a strawman. Respect for individuals promotes cooperation.
I also am a retired single American man living here in peaceful China. If I had known how horny young single Chinese girls are I would have moved here a long time ago. It seems that they really like screwing American men while they are here working in the city because eventually they will have to move back to the countryside and get married to some local Chinese man that their parents picked out for them who has no experience on how to give them the erotic pleasure they crave.
LOL "housing rights" don't count for shit in China, this will turn into a party orgy of looting the public treasury.
Everybody is aware that China, when the global economy dried up and blew away and their export business with it, would have to domesticate its economy and move more citizens from the farms to the cities.
Begging the question whether all those ghost cities you hear about weren't built for such a day when building costs were less than they are now.
But I don't have any idea how the Chinese are going to manage it. I just know that -- unless a world war intervenes -- it will get done.
I also know that the experts at here are going to make all sorts of erroneous predictions, most likely because they think the Chinese are just white folks with almond eyes.
Very interesting and not surprising.
For some time now America has had a need to feel good by making other countries look bad. Very pathological.
And it relies on the media to do its dirty work.
Or in the case of today's outrageous story from Amnesty International about hundreds of deaths in Syria caused by Russian bombings. All over the MSM today but none of them pick up the Russian Ministry of Defense's denial and request from AI for any kind of proof.
Russia, China are part of Agenda 21/2030. This is a genocide made palatable.
Agenda 21/2030 ????
Can you imagine leaving the farm to go to some concrete shitbox in a stack of chinese built, wobbly legos, at the edge (or in) the Mongolian Desert, that was built seven years ago and hasn't been swept, mopped or dusted since construction? The entire building would be a respiratory health hazard.
Hell, I live in the Mojave Desert...after three or four months we find we have to shovel sand and dust out of the house. (Probably should sweep more often...)
why do you live in mojave of all places?
I agree. China is not America. They do things differently.
http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2015-07/13/content_21255634.htm
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2015-07/03/content_21169331.htm
http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/04/ordos-a-ghost-town-that...
The hangovers from the orgies of malinvestments accelerating with contagions accross East Asia. The Authority focused on deleveraging...Really ? It is culminating into food crises and they chase out the farmers ?
Currently ,the real issue of real estate on the third forth tier cities in China , there have a lot of inventory ,But who wnat buying this apartment ,the farmer of third forth tier ,this is impossible , then who can purchase , hukou still in third forth tier cities who working at first cities .those folkes affordable the price of third forth tier real estate .but they also no motivation to purchase it duo to they want to stay at the first cities , so i think this policy make no sense .
however,China real estate economic are unsustainable now ,demand side ,the basic demand are fade ,supply side , which country can sustain constructing houses more than 100 million resided.So the real estate economic is over , So commodities price will droped futher till to balance the demand and supply.
70 million empty residences across countless Chinese ghost cities: who the fuck can they be for but peasants forced into cities. All possible with the miracle of funny money.
Central planning forgets that people are human beings with ideas of their own.
You are stacking up errors on errors of capital missallocation that you don't even know you are making. Telling people what they must or must not do is not any kind of free market and if it's not free then you have to manipulate it and if it's manipulated then the errors get more and more numerous and you keep drifting farther and farther from where you would be if people were in charge of making their own decisions.
On top of this once you get to a point that a free market will result in a revolution obviously you arrive at a crossroads where you have to do more and more and more misallocation to maintain things blowing the bubble bigger and bigger and bigger knowing you can never really pop it without it going boom in your face.
You can push a human to incredible lengths before they break but you can't push forever.
Central planning means that your odds of pushing them too far increase over time.
I am not discounting how industrious they are I am not discounting how collective minded they are I am not discounting anything I am saying that there are not enough free resources aka captial for them to bring that many people online without creating monsterous captital missallocations that will continue to construct the mountain of doom.
Tick Tock.
Thing is, neither China nor the US have a free market. Both are centrally planned. China's by it's communist government, US by it's owner's.
They're like fucking termites!
How many times gotta repeat this? All these words wasted on analysis. There's only 2 questions you have to ask yourself. (1) What are the median wages. (2) What's the median price of these cement sky castles. There's your answer. Annual wages around 10K USD... sky castles around 300K USD.
So again, for the umpteenth time. Which is more likely? Wages triple or quadruple, or those sky castles take the royal beating they so "richly" deserve?
"As a developer told me in Nanhui, a massive and nearly uninhabited new city on the coast of Shanghai: “It’s just a matter of when the government is willing to give the right price. The only question here is when.”
http://www.vagabondjourney.com/nanhui-ghost-city-china/
Your numbers are way off. I live in an affluent second tier city. In the farther neighborhoods you can buy a perfectly good 2BR home for way under $100,000 USD. Last fall made a 2000 mile road trip by car all around northeast China. I paid particular attention to housing prices. It is easy to get a nice 2BR home in a high-rise for $50 to $60K USD in dozens of nice cities I was in.
Don't forget how much the Chinese save. Many of those people who look like poor tradesmen or shopkeepers have hundreds of thousands in the bank.
China is learning from Finland. We fixed housing bubble by advicing people to move to capital city and kill our own farming. Our leftist party SDP even has a slogan "kill one Finnish farmer per day", maybe it's now used in China?
Now not enough farmers to move to Finnish capital so they are going to fix housing bubble with people from Syria, Iraq, Somalia. And giving criticism is going to be almost illegal.
Do google if you don't believe me: "SDP tapa talonpoika päivässä" = SDP kill one farmer per day :D and it's not CHINA
people are getting pretty use to food not coming from plants and animals, its only a matter of time and 3D printers will be the farm and supermarket in one.
I don't think my copy thingee will recreate those dotted letters. They look anthrax infected, so I'll pass.
/sarc for the idiots
There is a simple solution to China's leverage problem, one that Professor Steve Keen has been advocating and would work admirably well in China, but will lead to a disaster in the US.
China's government will find or create some "assets" of a face value of a few trillion Yuan to sell to the People's Bank of China and use the proceeds to make one off payments to all people (say in proportion to the income tax they paid in the last 10 years with a guaranteed minimum to every adult), except their debts to financial institutions will be paid off first on their behalf and only the remaining, if any, credited to their bank accounts. This will immediately reduce the debt levels of the citizens and give cash injection to those who don't have any serious debts. Everyone will have more cash in hands or increased ability to borrow at the same level of income. The balance sheets of all financial institutions (except the PBOC) will shrink as debts are repaid and they will be in a position to expand them by making new loans. The economy will continue to grow as before once the leverage comes down. As China is not a multi-party democracy, there are no fears of the abuse of this power and consequent hyperinflation. As long as the Chinese currency is pegged to something they don't control and are capable of redeeming any foreign holdings of Yuan in that or another of the holder's choice, this decision should create no panic in the foreign holders of Yuan.
If the same is attempted in the US, it will lead to a crash in the exchange rate of the currency because the power is guaranteed to be abused by the US, the US being a multi-party democracy and the legislators and the President will find the power to spend without taxation and borrowing irresistible and will soon result in hyperinflation. Foreign holders of the US$ can be expected to seek exits before the hyperinflation manifests and that very decision will cause the US$ to plummet in value against other currencies.
Anyway, China is unlikely to resort to this before the US does. China will resort to it after the US$ collapses (as a result of money creation without corresponding debt creation in the US likely in 2016), the BRICS bank issues a gold-backed international currency for payments between member countries and all the foreign holdings of Yuan are converted to this currency (effectively gold). After that the only negative impact of this move, if any, will be on the Chinese.
The Great Gold Reserve Act of 2016.
I think soon the Chinese government will have all the gold it needs, and the patriotic citizenry will soon be rolling in Yuan.
The Chinese have centrally-planned a middle class, and are about to roll it out.
$10,000/oz?
Yep, after the gold is confiscated, devalue the yuan to the point that it can be mostly backed by gold (which is NOT to be confused with redeemable), which has been independently audited by an international team. Then China challenges the rest of the world's currencied to do the same. Those like the criminal gang that call themselves the US government, who reveal that the gold is virtually gone in such an audit, will have their currency devalued accordingly. With all of the US dollars in circulation divided by the actual gold remaining, it wouldn't be surprising to see gold over $50k/oz (with silver holding in its historical ratio range). All the dollars will come home, while they can still buy something, until the accelerating velocity finishes the hyperinflationary event. The SDR basket will again be rejiggered with dollars becoming barely perceptable, with China, Russia and India on top, which will surprise a lot of people when they also head the NWO.
These migrant workers are already there. So the idea that they will be "transplanted" from elsewhere is a misnomer. They will be "transformed" into property owners via classic clearing of prices.
When the jobs go away, so will the workers, without something else to keep them there for the siege by the monsters who call themselves government
Why is cheap housing a problem...
First the carrot, then the stick...
The elite want everybody in the cities so that they can more easily exterminate people.
population China: more Christians than Communists. And they tell govts to mind their own business, it's just a few rabblerousers.
I have lived here for 4 years and have never met a communist, nothing but hard core pure capitalism with very little taxation as far as I can tell.
It's so much easier to control dissent when everyone is contained in a small area. All that's needed is to maintain a perimeter for long enough to allow the siege to run its course of attrition for the dissenters and whatever collateral damage there might be (which over-populated China needs, according to the UN). 100M pissed off people in the country are a far larger problem for the criminals who call themselves government to overcome.
From the perspective of a criminally insane government, the decision makes perfect sense. My advice to the Chinese people is to always do the opposite of what is wanted by the devils disciples who call themselves government, especially when they are trying to herd you into a small space.
This. Herd 'em into as small a corral as possible, then you've got 'em when you need 'em. Easy pickings for the goon squads.
I really think the original article was completely misunderstood. In China there are two types of people who live in the cities, those who are registered as city residents and the migrant workers who have to obtain a temporary permit to live and work in the city. The Government is offering official city residence permits and a housing discount to migrant workers who are already in the city. As official city residents they can then send their children to city schools so their children and parents can move to the city to be with them. It will help re-unite families that are currently torn apart because the parents are migrant workers in the city and the children are in the countryside with grandparents since the children and grandparents cannot live in the city with migrant parents. It will help eliminate some of the two tier class systems in the cities. I see it as a positive move forward.
Good idea, but who grows da food?.Farmers MAKE stuff necessary for LIFE.
FOOD.
It seems that in China everyone is a farmer and has staked out a garden patch. I can eat local grown food in the middle of the city for about $2 a day plus $1 for two pints of beer.
We are witnessing THE nexus of history,the birth of the New World Order, in real time.
roddy
I am a retired American who lives in China. I get tired of hearing people who have never been within 7000 miles of China having strong opinions about things they know nothing about. They have their heads full of "information" that would be funny if they weren't so vitriolic.
Believe it or not, Chinese people are different than westerners. There is a fundamental divide in values. To the Chinese, the most important thing is the smooth and peaceful functioning of society. To westerners, this is hard to understand. What in America is called rugged individualism is seen as a failure of a person to do his duty to family and society. That person is an embarrassment and a loser.
You don't have to agree with it. Just realize that in tough times it is better to be together as a group than scattered as individuals.
It's called Communism and brainwashing since birth.If they had a Constitution, and a BOR's, and the system that was founded here, they would look just like us.
It seems that China is ripe for an epidemic that might cull its excess population.
Or it could try and demolish the excess apartments like the Spansh have been doing with half finished projects.