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The Housing Recovery Was Just Cancelled (Again) Due To 5 Months Of Downward Revisions
Exactly one year ago, on December 23, 2014, we wrote that the housing recovery remains cancelled due to 6 months of downward revisions. As we revealed, "for the period May - November, the initial new home sales prints amount to 2.779MM houses. Post revision, the number plunges by 22% to 2.168K."
It was about as glaringly obvious as it could get:
Fast forward to today when moments ago the Dept of Commerce "pleasantly surprised" everyone when it reported that November new home sales, while missing expectations of a 505K print, "rose" to 490K from 470K in October . Great news: the housing recovery is on track... Just one problem: the original October print was 495K, which if maintained would have meant a decline of 5K in November.
So we decided to look at previous reports to see if the Commerce Dept had tried to pull a fast one again as it did last year, and lo and behold, not only were there downward revisions between the November and October "government data", but as the chart below shows, over the past 5 months the data has been consistently "revised lower" with every incremental release.
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We revised some Folks...
Time to bend'em over and revise them...hard......
I don't know why you guys always spend time grousing about the New Home Sales figures. The survey that produces this data has a painfully thin sample size.
Suffer me not this Season's whoas; Give me numbers that seem to grow.
Revise me goodness for ever more, bring me happiness to my front door.
Because these are the numbers that drive the market......
Excuse me KD, these numbers don't drive the market, they drive the algos.
Algo's only do what they are programmed to do and headline reading is part of it......
That just makes the revisions all the more informative in regards to the propaganda content of the number. They slowly revise the past numbers (closer to reality?) in an effort to make the latest numbers look a little shinier in comparison.
After all, as you imply, sample size is a measure of statistical quality, and by now, we should all know better than to relate that to any fedgov statistic du jour.
And the lifting of the Foreign Tax on Real Estate Investment last week was just a coincidence!!
Good one, TF.
If the USSA had a functioning media this little coincidence would be a top story.
So, housing has a roof -- but no floor!
about as true as Obamsters golf score card
Oh, I see the problem right there in the charts. They're fucking lying.
We can only hope your speed on the uptake is not matched by your beauty.
"If you like your revision then you can keep your revision."
Revised revisions for everyone!
Depends on what market.
This time around is different because of insanely high rental rates which actually put a physical floor under housing.
Most of the new construction is going into multifamily or rental housing that's the next bubble brewing now.
Given what is happening with the millenials, student debt, et al, this may not be a bubbe - multifamily and rental may be all there is.
corruption that would make FIFA proud
Better than expected......they can always wheel that old gem out.
You surely cant fix a problem the existance of which the US.gov refuses to acknowledge.
SpaceX?
An increase in mortgage rates applications (from -3 to +4) should help next month.
Housing has not deflated with the times well enough.
Millenials aren't shopping for a traditional home which is oversized, overpriced, and overmortgaged.
Millenials require something affordable and mobile which doesn't require a "slave-for-life loan", or commonly called a "mortgage".
It must be affordable for a common "new economy" job working for peanuts, and it must be mobile because the jobs are commonly seasonal, temporary, part-time and so the worker must constantly "chase" new jobs openings all over the country!
I think camper vans, RVS, houseboats, sailboats, and such are the new wave of the future for housing.
Yep- and Sam Zell's ahead of it again
Less supply means higher prices. No wonder prices keep rising. I have seen low volume all year long. The housing bears want to point that out as bad sign of an unhealthy market. But when you are in the suburbs all around los angeles , you see with your own eyes that buying a house consists of more buyers than inventory. Renting a house is even worse. I don't believe the market should have been propped up , but I also dont fight the fed. Housing sales may be down but that usually moves proces even higher.
first of all, the LA suburbs are a lousy anecdotal data point. RE is local, and the LA basin is fantasyland compared to the rest of CA & the US.
second, there is no shortage of housing stock - anywhere. There is probably more housing inventory now than at any point in my lifetime... of course, much of it is still held 'off the market' for a variety of reasons, but it's out there - empty & mostly owned by banks.
lastly, price points are local/property-specific, and a lousy indicator of overall market health. a few all-cash mansion sales distorts the entire set.
incomes are down, the pool of qualified buyers (domestic) is smaller than ever. and rates are going up (at the moment)... there is no way in hell that housing can "recover" under these conditions, and prices/values are going to fall in the near/foreseeable future, if not longer...
Maybe they should stop using a phone survey for new home sales data and just call the title company.
"kakistocracy"
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/kakistocracynoun, plural kakistocracies.
1. government by the worst persons; a form of government in which the worst persons are in power.
Banana Republic by any other name.
What else do you call it when official gov. agencies routinely and categorically LIE/Fabricate data to suit some political/ideological end...?
The memory hole at the Ministry of Truth will just eat all those old bad numbers. Rejoice Oceania, we will prevail!
Housing has TOPPED -Bubble 2.0. Foreign cash drying up, rents maxed, Private Eq like Zell says " It's hard not to be a seller now..." that's all you need to know, but he's usually early.
Young people chasing it all over the place around here, FOOLARSES.