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Is This The Secret Behind Santa's Rally?
We exposed the ugly truth below the surface of Santa's rally yesterday, but today it just got even more fantastical...
The "Arms Index" or "TRIN" is a technical analysis indicator that compares advancing and declining stock issues and trading volume as an indicator of overall market sentiment.
Remember, you have to believe (in The Fed) to receive (from The Market) before these jaws of doom will snap shut one way or the other.
And it's not FANGs that are dragging the index higher...
And in case you are wondering what is driving the divergence (which is all top-down index buying), it's this...
Tick for tick correlation with crude off the OPEX-lows from Friday.
Driving panic-buying into Energy stocks...
But credit ain't buying it...
Because the run in crude was one big stop-run gap-fill...
On the back of what everyone knows is year-end normal drawdowns as oil companies dump inventory to avoid overly burdensome taxation on stocks at year-end. In other words, this is actually a lower draw than normal... and will reverse dramatically after year-end.
Don't you just love fundamentals?
Charts: Bloomberg
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Fundermentals are overrated. All you need is unlimited hubris, unlimited money printing, unlimited stupidity on the part of our creditors, and unlimited clueless apathy, I mean patience by the sheeple. there you have it, like magic!!
Because sheeple only need to be told that "It is all awesome" and to "Lower your heads back down in the grazing position", we have the feed troughs being refilled as we speak...
Move along...
Propaganda; it's what's for Christmas!
Its time for the Neuvo-Tylers to go back to school. First to learn about the TRIN (which is actually not as effective as it once was), and second to learn about grammar and run-on sentences.
about the TRIN: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicat...
InterpretationAs a ratio of two indicators, the Arms Index reflects the relationship between the AD Ratio and the AD Volume Ratio. The TRIN is below 1 when the AD Volume Ratio is greater than the AD Ratio and above 1 when the AD Volume Ratio is less than the AD Ratio. Low readings, below 1, show relative strength in the AD Volume Ratio. High readings, above 1, show relative weakness in the AD Volume Ratio.
In general, strong market advances are accompanied by relatively low TRIN readings because up-volume overwhelms down-volume to produce a relative high AD Volume Ratio. This is why the TRIN appears to move “inverse” to the market. A strong up day in the market usually pushes the Arms Index lower, while a strong down day often pushes the Arms Index higher.
And manipulation for the other 364 days.
OK, I read these comments and usually get a kick out of them. However, when the comments are in regard to the market and people investing (and making money) I always find these comments terribly sad. You people are so bitter at people making money (regardless if it is on phony pretenses or information). Is there some reason (other than you don't have any money) why you are so bitter at people who make money in the stock market (casino....even I believe it has become casino-like. I used to be a broker)? I do not invest for the long term. I trade the market and remain very nimble for the same reasons you people mock others.
Trust me, it is not difficult to see your bitterness.....it is HIGHLY visible in these comments!
Why would you want to make things worse for yourselves given the fact that your Masters (so to speak) are creating a false playground? Why not beat them at their own game?
I hardly believe anything that comes from the MSM, but I also have to sift through ZH too because in many cases the contributions here are absurd too. My recommendation to people who are bitter is......make lemonade out of the garbage the Masters leave behind. Use their bad information and propaganda to your advantage.....don't just bitch about it!
Bitching is fun.
Stop it now. How dare you guys make fun of this serious business. Peoples lives are ------- sorry, couldn't stop giggling!!
I can't speak for others, but the reason it makes me mad is that in 2008 we saw what happens when their "digital playground" comes crashing down. It's the average person who pays for it - not the Wall St. guys who will be getting a bonus in January so they can buy their mistress new shoes.
Everyone should be infuriated that they are blowing another bubble, whether you are benefitting from it or not
Sorry Swami. You need to go back to skool and get intelligent. Shove the propaganda up your a-hole, especially if you advise to profit from it. You're no different than those who bought puts on the airlines prior to 9/11. If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Keep aiding and abetting the Status Quo. I'm sure they'll be there to protect you when this fraud explodes in their face...
I would never count on 'them' to protect me from anything! So, investing in the market is akin to profiting on the deaths of those from 9/11.....Wow, you need serious counseling Dude!
Want to read my happy face writing? Give me a few ticker symbols you think will make me money in the next six months.
Are they truly making MONEY, or just Munny?
"Gold is MONEY, and nothing else."
To it is....
To ? x ? it is....
they find a new lever every week or so to drag this shit show of a "market" higher... or just fall back on the old reliable Vix smashing
So, is there some reason why you don't want to benefit from it?
So, is there some reason why you don't want to benefit from it?
Lol.... what a bunch of Mo-Mo chasing Morons!
The big momentum winners at the moment are real estate and bonds. Cash is third although flat for the last 5 months. One guess at what is fourth and no, its not stawks.
I am sure that the increase in feds funds rate and the induction of the Yuan into the SDR will change what we currently know about momentum.... 3 out of the 4 you mentioned, has a very short half-life and seems like the HIGHLY overcrowded trade "they" are trying to corral everyone into!
Buyer Beware!
Oregon, it is always 'buyer beware'. Always was. I agree with you. And it is refreshing to see you are not one of the 'bitter' commenters!
The hopium is turned up full blast...
Baker Hughes Rig Count Data | BakerHughes.com
Makes perfect sense in an inbred sort of way, and this is our brave new world in action......
santa is not real you sorry childish mother fuckers
Lesson here is, you dont diss Santa or inbreds without the fear of reprisal via a good tongue lashing.... or a downvote.
What I find perplexing from the trolls is why they are so angry. If the economy is growing, the Fed correct, and the US not getting their ass handed to them in foreign policy, then there would be no need for anger.
But, it appears all of the tinfoil hat conspiracy crowd is correct because to come out guns-a-blazing with such anger in a comment proves for me that the USD/MIC/KEY MOUSEconomy is in tatters.
So wait Santa isn't real?
nope 1004 , what planet are you from again?
See Inbreds Say Deliverance
Energy Credit is at cycle lows and in some cases multi-decade lows.
Thinking that the Budget just passed with the lifting of the export ban is the bottom.
I am long energy credit right now.
Whooda knowed CAT was an energy stock ... up 2% today and 5% yesterday on nuttin .
It's good to be a gangsta.
Cheap oil for da cat makes it run faster? or was it step on the cats tail and it runs faster.
Ah whateva makes the cat go.
+1. If I destroyed my sales for 12 consecutive quarters, would my stock go up 7% in 36 hours...must be a new "successful business model" I am not acquainted with.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders lambasted the Federal Reserve on Wednesday as an institution that has been "hijacked by the very bankers it regulates" and called for banning bank executives from regional Fed governing boards.
I always thought the Fed was a private institution? Why would anyone think the Fed was created to regulate Banks. The Banks have always regulated the Fed. Bernie is just another ignorant Americonned.
The same b/s happened in the equity markets last week, before the employment numbers on Thursday.
Perhaps you should learn aboutt TRIN. When stocks or indexes RALLY you will SEE a LOW TRIN. You want to see a LOW TRIN ....
, strong market advances are accompanied by relatively low TRIN readings because up-volume overwhelms down-volume to produce a relative high AD Volume Ratio. This is why the TRIN appears to move “inverse” to the market. A strong up day in the market usually pushes the Arms Index lower, while a strong down day often pushes the Arms Index higher.
http://d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/technical_indica...
don't confuse conspiracy theorists with facts
Apparently the barrier for getting a Tyler account on here is pretty low...I got a stack of box tops and half-filled sandwich card from Jimmy Johns, what'll that get me?
AS you are implying, there are 4 factors in the formula: [Adv Issues / Decl issues] / [Vol (adv) / Vol (Decl)]. This can be restated as [Adv Issues / Vol (adv)] / [Decl issues / Vol (decl)]. So it is the ratio of issues per unit volume between the ADVANCERS AND Decliners.
Because of the 4 factors in the forumula, the TRIN will go lower if there is more volume per declining issue than volume per advancing issue.
So the declining TRIN says that volume is increasing per declining issue while decreasing per advancing issue - This would lead one to conclude that a declining TRIN in the face of an advancing market shows that the support for that move up is declining itself.
This is where the idea that a TRIN < 1 is bullish - it seems to imply the assumption that there is so much volume on the declining issues that the continued move up is bound to bring more volume to the advancing side. Of course, the inverse is assumed for a high TRIN. However, if on oes by the 3rd paragraph in this comment (beginning "So the declining TRIN...") Then a low TRIN with a downward slope may or may not be bullish. Again - it's a glass half full versus a glass half empty kind of indicator because it is subject to many interpretations.
I happen to find it less than useful because of this. BUT.... if the market keeps going up and TRIN keeps declining - especially near rejected tops - I believe that this is a bearish sign in the short term. What else would you consider it to be when there is increasing volume (ie selling - hitting the bid) on declining issues vs decreasing volume (ie buying at the ask) on the increasing issues.
Yeah OK
I suspect you lose your shirt trading Eminis
Dear Tylers:
Please elaborate on the proof of this ridiculous hypothesis. We all know that correlation is not causation. Could it be that those who are buying equities in whatever from are also buying oil? How do you know that it's not Equities pulling WTI along with it and not the reverse.
I mean for Pete's sake, you keep posting all of these supposed correlations yet never give one shred of proof (money flows, description of the financial system connections etc) that what you are espousing is actually true.
Wait....here it comes...
Nevermind the fact that we already brought up issues with him (or her!) using TRIN as an indicator: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-22/beneath-markets-shallow-surface...
This is a free site, and as they say, you get what you pay for...
If you have two monitors, pull up a 1-min chart on both CL and SPX. It's quite obvious that CL's spikes consistently preceed SPX's by a few minutes. Today, CL popped up over a key technical level -- the Aug 24 lows at 37.75 -- three times.
The first time, SPX responded a few minutes later by breaking out of a channel. The second time, SPX broke above the 20 and 50-day moving averages. The third time, it popped above the 200-day moving average (where it closed.)
I know it sounds like conspiracy theory. I used to think so, too. But, anyone who watches CL, USDJPY, VIX, SPX and ES all day can easily observe what I'm talking about. Today, it was CL. Tomorrow, it might be USDJPY or VIX. The point is, there are many ways of forcing the "market" higher -- by momentarily pushing one of these buttons. It is no longer a market at all.
For an example, check out these charts from last month when both USDJPY and CL were taking turns driving stocks higher: http://pebblewriter.com/ratcheting-stocks-higher/
the markets always drift higher on little to no volume. this is nothing new. no conspiracy, just the way it has always been. we will drift higher on no volume next week as well. just like every low volume holiday trading day.
TRIN provides a bullish signal when it's less than 1.0, since there's greater volume in the average up stock than the average down stock.
When USDJPY can’t lever stocks any higher, we can always count on CL. My own, personal, favorite tin-foil-hat theory is that spanking CL prices higher is the Fed/ECB’s way of coercing encouraging the Band of Japan to facilitate the yen carry trade by slamming the yen lower. Wouldn’t you love to be a fly on the wall for that little chat?
Well…as luck would have it, a friend of mine was giving Chair Yellen her weekly foot massage this morning, and eavesdropped during a phone call she placed to BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. She was kind enought to send me a transcript.
http://pebblewriter.com/hello-haruhiko-janet-here/
SANTA RALLY! http://bbsimg.qianlong.com/data/attachment/forum/201312/24/151204etd7o37127tf3zdw.jpg
Anyone else notice to Federal Reserve's balance sheet went up by $20 billion dollars last month?
Who got the money and for what purpose ??
The Fed buys stocks !!!
I figure monday, my "short" positions, will be wanting addens.
ain't nothin changed
Great charts but dubious explanations. Markets are in diffrent orbits from fundamentals (now to be defined as belief systems). Cease looking for causations and concentrate on the liquidity of each instrument as risk preventions. Serious monies are buying farms or physicals with minimal debts. They are not growing these farms, etc. It is as good as buying out of the money puts with no counterparty risk and you manage your own margins.However, nothing is for free as there is liquidity risk.