Ukraine's Looming "19 Fukushimas" Scenario

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via ClubOrlov.com, (author of The Five Stages Of Collapse)

With all the action in Syria, the Ukraine is no longer a subject for discussion in the West. In Russia, where the Ukraine is still a major problem looming on the horizon, and where some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees are settling in, with no intentions of going back to what's left of the Ukraine, it is still actively discussed. But for the US, and for the EU, it is now yet another major foreign policy embarrassment, and the less said about it the better.

In the meantime, the Ukraine is in full-blown collapse - all five glorious stages of it - setting the stage for a Ukrainian Nightmare Before Christmas, or shortly after.

Phase 1. Financially, the Ukrainian government is in sovereign default as of a couple of days ago. The IMF was forced to break its own rules in order to keep it on life support even though it is clearly a deadbeat. In the process, the IMF stiffed Russia, which happens to be one of its major shareholders; what gives?

 

Phase 2. Industry and commerce are approaching a standstill and the country is rapidly deindustrializing. Formerly, most of the trade was with Russia; this is now over. The Ukraine does not make anything that the EU might want, except maybe prostitutes. Recently, the Ukraine has been selling off its dirt. This is illegal, but, given what's been happening there, the term “illegal” has become the stuff of comedy.

 

Phase 3. Politically, the Ukrainian government is a total farce. Much of it has been turned over to fly-by-night foreigners, such as the former Georgian president Saakashvili, who is a wanted criminal in his own country, which has recently stripped him of his citizenship. The parliament is stocked with criminals who bought their seat to gain immunity from prosecution, and who spend their time brawling with each other. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk was recently hauled off the podium by his crotch; how dignified is that? He seemed unfazed. Where are his testicles? Perhaps Victoria Nuland over at the US State Dept. is keeping them in a jar. This sort of action may be fun to watch on Youtube, but the reality is quite sad: those who “run” the Ukraine (if the term still applies) are only interested in one thing: stealing whatever is left.

 

Phase 4. Ukrainian society (if the term still applies) has been split into a number of warring factions. This was, to some extent, inevitable. What happens if you take bits of Poland, Hungary, Romania and Russia, and stick them together willy-nilly? Well, results may vary; but if you also spend $5 billion US (as the Americans did) turning the Ukrainians against Russia (and, since they are mostly Russian, against themselves), then you get a complete disaster.

 

Phase 5. Cultural collapse is quite advanced. The Ukraine once had the same world-class educational system as Russia, but since independence they switched to teaching in Ukrainian (a made-up language) using nonexistent textbooks. The kids have been taught a bogus history hallucinated by rabid Ukrainian nationalists. They've been told that Russia is backward and keeping them back, and that they deserve to be happy in the EU. (Just like the Greeks? Yeah...) But now the population has been reduced to levels of poverty not commonly seen outside of Africa, and young people are fleeing, or turning to gangsterism and prostitution, to merely survive. This doesn't make for a happy cultural narrative. What does it mean to be “a Ukrainian” now? Expletives deleted. Sorry I asked.

Now, here's what it all really means. With so much going wrong, the Ukraine has been unable to secure enough natural gas or coal supplies to provide a supply cushion in case of a cold snap this winter. A few weeks of frosty weather will deplete the supply, and then pipes will freeze, rendering much of the urban areas unlivable from then on (because, recall, there is no longer any money, or any industry to speak of, to repair the damage). That seems bad enough, but we aren't quite there yet.

You see, the Ukraine produces over half of its electricity using nuclear power plants. 19 nuclear reactors are in operation, with 2 more supposedly under construction. And this is in a country whose economy is in free-fall and is set to approach that of Mali or Burundi! The nuclear fuel for these reactors was being supplied by Russia. An effort to replace the Russian supplier with Westinghouse failed because of quality issues leading to an accident. What is a bankrupt Ukraine, which just stiffed Russia on billions of sovereign debt, going to do when the time comes to refuel those 19 reactors? Good question!

But an even better question is, Will they even make it that far? You see, it has become known that these nuclear installations have been skimping on preventive maintenance, due to lack of funds. Now, you are probably already aware of this, but let me spell it out just in case: a nuclear reactor is not one of those things that you run until it breaks, and then call a mechanic once it does. It's not a “if it ain't broke, I can't fix it” sort of scenario. It's more of a “you missed a tune-up so I ain't going near it” scenario. And the way to keep it from breaking is to replace all the bits that are listed on the replacement schedule no later than the dates indicated on that schedule. It's either that or the thing goes “Ka-boom!” and everyone's hair falls out.

How close is Ukraine to a major nuclear accident? Well, it turns out, very close: just recently one was narrowly avoided when some Ukro-Nazis blew up electric transmission lines supplying Crimea, triggering a blackout that lasted many days. The Russians scrambled and ran a transmission line from the Russian mainland, so now Crimea is lit up again. But while that was happening, the Southern Ukrainian, with its 4 energy blocks, lost its connection to the grid, and it was only the very swift, expert actions taken by the staff there that averted a nuclear accident.

I hope that you know this already, but, just in case, let me spell it out again. One of the worst things that can happen to a nuclear reactor is loss of electricity supply. Yes, nuclear power stations make electricity—some of the time—but they must be supplied with electricity all the time to avoid a meltdown. This is what happened at Fukushima Daiichi, which dusted the ground with radionuclides as far as Tokyo and is still leaking radioactive juice into the Pacific.

And so the nightmare scenario for the Ukraine is a simple one. Temperature drops below freezing and stays there for a couple of weeks. Coal and natural gas supplies run down; thermal power plants shut down; the electric grid fails; circulator pumps at the 19 nuclear reactors (which, by the way, probably haven't been overhauled as recently as they should have been) stop pumping; meltdown!

And so, if you want to say a prayer for the Ukraine this holiday season, don't bother because it's well and truly fucked. But do say a prayer for global warming. If this winter stays very, very warm, then the “19 Fukushimas” scenario just may be averted. This is not impossible: we've been seeing one freakishly warm winter after another, and each passing month is setting new records. The future is looking hot—as in very warm. Let us pray that it doesn't also turn out to be hot—as in radioactive.

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JamaicaJim's picture

UPDATE

 

Ukrainian women have stuffed my mailbox with the service I am on. I mean, HOT women.

Been on the service less than 3 weeks. 500+ responses. The VAST majority - Ukrainian. One or two Russians, some Chinese - but Ukraine? Ho Li Fuc

Means they are desperate to get out of that shithole.

Fukushima Sam's picture

I'm sure everything is just fine over in the Ukraine.

HowdyDoody's picture

For extra amusement, the Ukrainians have been trying to fit Westinghouse-designed fuel rods into old Soviet reactors, because well, fuck you Russia, fuck the EU and fuck everyone really.

If you like your jammed fuel rods, you can keep your jammed fuel rods.

Welcome to Chernobylistan.

 

BuddyEffed's picture

These things might be at the top of the list of concerns in that area of geopolitics.

And these potential industrial disasters are probably one of the biggest reasons bankers are doing gods work now in trying to preserve the status quo everywhere

Latina Lover's picture

The Ukraine is a joke that gets funnier each time you tell it.

Motasaurus's picture

I'm fairly certain that turning a bread basket into a radioactive wasteland is in very poor taste, but it'll make the borderlands that defeated Napoleon and hitler both all the more effective at wrecking European armies trying to conquer Russia.

HenryHall's picture

The old Soviet reactors in Ukraine are near the end of their life anyway. So the fuel issue should be only temporary until the reactors are permanently shut down.

GeezerGeek's picture

After reading your comment about "turning a bread basket into a radioactive wasteland" I had a vision of self-toasting bread.

Macon Richardson's picture

God bless the bankers. I'd write more but the Howdy Doody show just started on TV and I never miss it.

Freddie's picture

We Chernobyl'ed some folks.

F**king O and the neocons, Neolibs and zio-cons.  Endless wars, false flag oil blowuts in the Gulf spewing Coreixt for months to poison the Gulf of Mexico, nuclear meltdowns including Fukishima which was not a normal tidalwave or meltdown, genocidal proxy wars, endless shit.

8 years of Reagan was heaven compared to this evil shit.   

Latina Lover's picture

Even worse, the neocons, Neolibs and zio-cons are just  getting started, doing Gods work  (Baal, Satan etc)

shining one's picture

Speaking of Baal. Mount Hermon in SYRIA. In the book of Enoch, Mount Hermon is the place where the watcher class of fallen angles descended to Earth. They swear upon the mountain that they would take wives among the daughters of men and take mutual imprecation for their sin (Enoch 6). The mountain or summit is referred to as Saphon in Ugaritic texts where the palace of Baal is located in a myth about Attar.

Macon Richardson's picture

Eight years of Reagan was heaven compared to a lot of evil shit.

saveUSsavers's picture

You were right unti the Reagan bullshit! He was the beginning of the end for the US0fArsewholes

BurningFuld's picture

The USA fucking one country after the other. "It's what's for breakfast!" :said John McInsane.

gigadeath's picture

Ukrainian is not a "made up" language Tyler, shame on you.

HotelBread's picture

What service is it? I'm asking for a friend of mine, like.

JamaicaJim's picture

loveme.com

used it before.

The fucking morons that down voted me did not (of course) get it.

The reason I even mentioned it is the sheer number of Ukrainian women that have responded. It's 90% of the responses. 10 years ago? Not this much.

If women there are so desperate to get out, it means something.

Stainless Steel Rat's picture
Stainless Steel Rat (not verified) JamaicaJim Dec 24, 2015 9:39 PM

It only goes up to 199 pounds?  No thanks.

HotelBread's picture

I gave you an upvotey for the useful information. For my friend.

People who didn't read your post properly may have thought it was spam.

JamaicaJim's picture

Not spam. Not shilling for anyone.

As I said, even 5 years ago, the ratio would have been 50/50 - Russian to Ukrainian women.

Now, it's 95/5 - Ukraine.

If women want out, the place is done. Period.

HotelBread's picture

Maybe the men could convert to Islam? Then Merkel would let them all in.

researchfix's picture

She is already smiling. In 2016 the Ukies will come visa-free.

The refugee wave we have now will be small shit, when 10 millions Ukies are coming. To stay.

GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe they should declare themselves as refugees and come to the USA. To balance out the Syrians, Somalis, Cubans, etc. that keep flocking here. Call it Diversity in Refugeeism or something like that.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

For some strange reason, I had thought that Iceland might have made their list.  ... For a friend.

The Dogs of Moar's picture

I hope you're over there stuffing their mailboxes.

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

I am pretty sure that the Ukrainians just need a copy of TEPCO's  'Emergency and Non-Standard Operation Procedures Manual' and everything will work out just fine.

Normalcy Bias's picture

Let's hope they've followed Tepco's genius and have buried their emergency generators underground ...in case of a flood.

Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Yep, unbridled genius .... those engineers that designed that place. 

hal10000's picture

Fukashima was a near 100% Xerox version of plants inside the USA, don't forget (they were built by GE if memory serves).  Nothing wrong with putting generators underground, just not in those near the Rim of Fire with histories of earthquakes and tsunamis.  What I'm not sure of is why the non-power recirculatory cooling system defaults to having valves closed in case of power outage.  That was the major error I heard with regards to Fukashima.  The plant operators didn't know the valves CLOSE on power outage.

It also wasn't just the generators, the mobile generation system they had as another backup couldn't make it to the Fukashima site.

mccvilb's picture

"Yep, unbridled genius .... those engineers that designed that place."

 

Yes, that would be GE. BTW we here in the US have 23 Fukushima style GE NPP's in operation. Here's the list.

IndianaJohn's picture

Will Russia invade to prevent nuclear meltdown?

God's picture

Russia is sworn to a strict non aggression agreement.

lakecity55's picture

Well, they are the only ones nearby who can fix the stuff.

I don't see Russia going in as an invasion, the place has historically been Russia anyway. It would be like the US Army going in to New Orleans after Katrina. If there is a nuke emergency, Russia will have to go. Otherwise the radioactive crap will head over Russia.

JohninMK's picture

If one goes bang its not necessarily Russia that gets it. When Chernobyl went the plume was in an ark over northern Europe all the way to Wales.

The EU will be begging the Russians to act, very quickly. But don't expect Kiev to call for help until it goes bang.

But then of course the EU will just raise the 'safe' radioactive limit and close monitoring stations, as the US may have done following FuktheUSshima.

 

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

LOL.  You're a funny guy, even if a bit blue-eyed.  Agreement (a piece of TP), or no Agreement...

Given the two outcomes of (a) Breaking an Agreement, (b) Exiting said Agreement unilaterally and on short notice, (c) Paratropping in to prevent melt-downs, or (d) Letting the Melt-down happen, which do You think is/are the most likely scenario(s)?

p.s. Is that you, god Q?  Show me a sign.  Giving me the ship back would be great at convincing me.

BingoBoggins's picture

(B), but, performed with panache - or some sort of International approval. (UN, etc.) Another scenario to account for, perhaps, wherein timing correlates with opportunity.

God's picture

OPEN thread!

lolmao500's picture

And once it goes boom, Russia will have to invade to secure the power plants, leading to ww3

lakecity55's picture

Too bad, it will only happen once one plant goes, giving the Russians a reason to intervene. That's polyticks for ya.

Al Tinfoil's picture

Looking at the map of the spread of fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl explosion, it is evident that the fallout plume did not immediately go East toward Russia, but first went Northwest, then Northeast into Scandinavia, then swirled around to cover most of Western Europe, including Italy, France, Great Britain and Ireland, Germany, and countries in between.  Only Spain and Portugal escaped direct exposure.  Belarus is reported to have received 70% of the fallout.  The animated map shows the movement of the fallout from April 29 to May 9, 1986, I understand.

Chernobyl Fallout map:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU4_bJT8W3Y

In other words, the Western European NATO countries took a huge part of the dump of radiative fallout from Chernobyl, Russia got less, in the immediate aftermath of the explosion.  Thus, it is at least as important for the Western European/NATO countries to be prepared to step in and ensure the safe operation or shut-down of Ukraine's remaining (and increasingly risky) nuclear reactors, as it is for Russia to be ready to step in.  

The instability and chaos stirred up in Ukraine by the Washington neo-cons was intended to deliver Ukraine into the NATO/Anti-Russian/Western corporate-banker exploitation camp and to expel Russia from its Crimea naval base.  Ukraine's economy and political stability (such as they were) have been destroyed, with the Western Ukrainians and the Kiev government used as proxies in war against Russia which poses as a civil war between Kiev and the Eastern Ukraine Donetsk and Lugansk separatists.  Russia refuses to permit Kiev to win their civil war, as that would see NATO move right up to the Ukraine/Russia border with missile and anti-missile systems.  The EU is now caught up in a campaign of sanctions against Russia, which ironically is their most secure supplier of oil, natural gas, and nuclear fuel, and was the EU's fastest growing trading partner up until the Kiev coup of February 2014.

There appears to be a woeful absence of statesmanship among the leaders of the EU and the EU countries - each seems consumed with his or her petty concerns and with attempts to gain power in turf wars, rather than look to the greater benefit and security of the EU and its members.  Many remain captive of the Atlanticist delusion - the idea that the road to lasting peace among the squabbling EU nations and the ultimate destiny of the EU is to remain under the leadership of the great Arsenal of Democracy - the USA - rather than adopting a more independent economic and foreign policy.  The European Commission in Brussels maintains the delusion that it is entitled and destined to do God's work by taking control of all European affairs and eliminating independence among EU nations, thus ensuring conformity and peace amongst all the EU nations.  Meanwhile, ironically, the US-led NATO heads in Brussels do their very best to stir up World War 3 with Russia.

At least those living in other parts of the World can take some comfort in the notion that the proxy wars that are now going on are mostly confined to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.  Of course, if a full-on World War 3 nuclear war ensues, everyone everywhere on Earth can enjoy their daily dose of radiation and glow in the dark.  

Cheers, and Merry Christmas. 

Ms No's picture

Meh.. if good and intelligent people don't take control back from the monsters we are as good as done anyway.  Nuclear winter may be better compared to long drawn out war, prison camps and slavery anyway.

I suppose being that Russia stands to be a new energy super power if the bastards can't have it no one will.

God's picture

Can I have the casino owner? I have a special cage for him, it's partially underwater. Well, mostly underwater is more accurate.

Ms No's picture

Child sex traffickers and bankers first.  Sheesh!  Casino owners?

Implied Violins's picture

Even God plays dice. And takes losing poorly, evidently.

BarkingCat's picture

He is referring to a particular tribe member whose last name starts with "A" and is heavily involved in the Republican politics.

Jack Burton's picture

The Junta leaders in Kiev would have long since fell in a counter coup if not for free money being given to them from the USA's unlimited black budget money. CIA and Pentagon are given many tens of billions of dollars for off budget expenses. It is clear that the Ukrainian Army is wholly funded by American cash. Vital government functions are also paid for by American funds. As for the general governing of Ukraine, the IMF is giving loans, even though Ukraine is not credit worthy.

As long as the US funds the Junta, they should be able to hold onto power and persue the war in Donbass, also fully funded by the Washington Neo-Con team.

Ukraine is now the poorest nation in Europe surpassing poverty stricken Moldova for that honor. Ukrainians with jobs make an average pay of 180 Euros a month! Since the victory on the Maidan, around 2.5 million Ukrainian jobs have been lost. Over 1.5 million Ukrainians ran to Russia for safe haven. Another million more work in Russia and send money home.  Since the heroes of Maidan, 260,000 Ukrainians have fleed to Poland and applied for Polish passorts. Another 250,000+ have fleed to Hungary, and sought Hungarian Passports.  A recent Poll indicates 3,000,000 young people plan to leave Ukraine immediately next year when Visa restrictions to the EU are supposed to be dropped. The collapse of Ukrainian and Russian trade has left many Ukrainian businesses with no customers, and thus forced to close.

The EU agreement hands economic power over to the EU. All that Ukrainians have to cling to is the hope of moving to western Europe as migrants when the borders do finally come down. The trouble is, all the places Ukrainians planned to migrate to now have over 1,000,000 Muslims and Africans jammed into them and all teh social welfare money is spent on them, leaving the new wave of Ukrainian migrants, no jobs, no social welfare and no apartments available to them, the "open borders" to Muslims from across the globe must really rub the Kiev people's noses in shit! To think that Africans can move to London and get an apartment, while border guards arrest any Ukrainian trying to slip into Europe! Ha! Ha! Big joke.

lakecity55's picture

I bet what will happen is they will allow Russian Utility outfits to run power to the nuke plants.

Latina Lover's picture

Good Post, Jack Burton.

As for the Visa restrictions being lifted, I will believe it when I see it.  The USSA is trying to push part of the costs for supporting the Ukraine onto the EU, but the Europeans are broke and overloaded with Muslims so I doubt this will happen. The EU has more than enough Polish illegals to clean toilets and turn tricks.

  Besides, the banksters cannot afford an exodus of prime slave material, leaving behind the old, infirm and incapable. No, Visas for the Ukies is just a lie to string along their hopes for a bit longer.

Fractal Parasite's picture

For the last several years Poroshenko and Yatsenuk have been saying that all Ukrainians will have visa-free travel to the EU “next year”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tu1HKUsX33U

In the above clips in Ukrainian & Russian you can see the dates 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014 ... Same promise “next year”, no delivery.