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The Year Nothing Worked
"This year is a wake-up call to think about lower returns for the next several years," notes BMO's Lowell Yura, warning that "investor expectations for both equities and bonds have been [mistakenly] elevated by recent history." According to data compiled by Bianco Research, 2015 could be the worst for asset allocation funds since World War I. Simply put, nothing worked, as for the first time since 2001, none of the major asset-classes returned more than 10%.
As Bloomberg notes, the idea behind asset allocation is simple: when one market struggles, it’s OK because an investor can benefit from another that is thriving. That did not happen in 2015...
In fact, if you judge the past year by which U.S. investment class generated the largest return, a case can be made it was the worst for asset-allocating bulls in almost 80 years, according to data compiled by Bianco Research LLC and Bloomberg. With three days left, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 2.2 percent with dividends, cash is up less, while bonds and commodities are showing losses.
After embracing everything from Treasuries to high-yield bonds and technology shares amid seven years of zero-percent interest rates, investors found themselves with nowhere to run at a time when the Federal Reserve’s campaign of stimulus drew to an end.
Normally it isn’t like this. Since 1995, practically every year has seen some asset deliver returns exceeding 10 percent... except 2015 and 2001
According to Bianco’s study, gains from the best-performing assets had surpassed 10 percent in all but one year since 1995. During the last nine decades, 23 years, or a quarter of the total, saw at least one asset class returning more than 30 percent, and only four ended with gains smaller than 4 percent.
“The Fed stimulus lifted all boats, and then the Fed withdrawing the stimulus is holding the boats down,” Bianco said by phone. “If the argument is right that the economy is going into 2016 weak and earnings are negative, those conditions will continue and therefore on the asset allocation level, I don’t expect anything to break out just yet.”
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Truth always prevails, whats even more revealing is how these ass holes screwed the pooch with all their made up data, all the lies and bull shit has risen to the top and shown itself for what it is, bull shit.
So we got that gong for us.
"it was the worst for asset allocation bulls in 80 years"
We seem to be hitting a lot of milestones that date back to the pre-WWII time period. Wonder why that is.
2016 is the last chance to get your mind, body and finances in shape for the coming war.
If we make it through 2016 we'll be lucky.
You have the rest of the winter to prepare yourself, unless someone fucks up.
The window is closing fast for meaningful action against eurasia.Late Sping or early Summer 2016
is my guess.And no, they aren't all in some grand conspiracy together.Some people need meds, or
a life.
What meaningful action can anyone take? It's all fucked.
People need to get that through their heads round here. I've been lurking on this site (and finally signed up a while back) and for years everybody seems excited about collapse.
Let me spell it out for you: we will likely see many people we love die. I can't say if it will be war, famine, illness from lack of hospital care, climate disruption caused by nuclear war, etc. But what I can tell you is collapse is not a good thing. Ask the Anasazi, or maybe the Easter Island natives, or the Byzantines...oh wait that's right they're all dead.
Seriously guys, as sick as it sounds my resolution this year...or my prayer perhaps is that the central banks keep this shit together for just a little longer. Maybe I'm getting sappy after finding out my family is expecting more kids this year, but seriously what else can we do?
And no your "preps" will not save you and neither will some goofy ass guy with a crazy hairdo (though it is amusing). Pray to the deity or (lack thereof) of choice. The future is gonna suck.
Yea I'd agree with the replies, well said.
Wealth, if sustained, will always be a differentiator for survival.
Hence the goal of doing away with the middle class, so one less differentiator will exist.
Eventually it will come down to .01% and the rest.
It has always been that way all through history. Some had a vision that there was enough for everyone. The reality is human beings don't want to share, they are not sufficiently evolved to do this.
Men and women fought hard to have a voice and make change, we have essentially had 50 good years where most countries in the West have lived better than any time in recorded history. Sadly the dream is dying.
Whether the various asset bubbles implode or slowly deflate, the fundamental question is whether at the key moment we succumb to the cocaine dependency. Do we have the resolve to kick the cocaine habit and End the Fed (and face the music) or will we be begging to snort more lines off of Grandma Janet's landing strip?
2016... the year the S&P and the USD went parabolic...
Indeed. With these exchange rates, it is a GREAT time to travel to, pretty much, anywhere outside of the US.
And a great time to diversify your currency holdings.
Get a look at that 5 year losing streak the commodities are posting. Would be funny except I have a front row seat in that train wreck....
I got out in 2012, with a small profit. I didn't keep my stocks, though. Kind of kicking myself.
And then there's this
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-social-security-changes-affect-you-20...
I liked the "18 years for Congress to fix it " comment in the SS changes story.
...nothing to break out just yet :)
We'll be going down 4 to 5% on average per month untill the FED starts QE4.
There's a 100% chance of QE4.
Yeah, but not before the elections
Everything is awesome on Wall Street. Nice year-end bonuses.
With talk of even larger bonuses next year.
Eating your own children has been taken to a new high on WS
Secular bear markets (in CPI and US$ terms) are once-in-a-lifetime, winner-take-all, fourth-order Pareto epochs, i.e., the "winners" who "beat the market" over 5-10 years are fewer than 2 out of 1,000, and turnover is ~50%.
One's odds of finding that "winner" for a money manager and enjoying the gains over a 5- to 10-year period are far worse than throwing one's money away in "Lost Wages" (a.k.a. Las Vegas).
The stock market has ALWAYS BEEN a "wealth-transfer" vehicle from the top 9% after the top 0.001-1% to the same top 0.001-1% who already own a disproportionately large share of financial, not a "wealth-creation" institution for society.
The stock market is a reflection of the predator-prey system of redistribution of resources, income, wealth, and economic, social, and political power from the mass of human apes to the top 0.001-1%.
But nothing will change until, or if, the next 5-9% below the top 1% begin to internalize that their socioeconomic status and security is being threatened by the seething anger, resentment, and acting out by the bottom 90%+, which they perceive and internalize as being the result of policies favored and enjoyed by the top 0.001-1% at the expense of everyone else.
We're closer to that mass-social realization by the next 9% than we were 5-10 or more years ago, but we're not yet there at the threshold of mass-social recognition and the next 9% losing faith in the credibility, legitimacy, and authority of the top 0.001-1% to lord over the rest of us.
History and human nature suggests that economic and financial conditions will worsen for the bottom 90%+, and the next 9% will feel the pain and respond by challenging the top 0.001-1%; that's when it gets ugly.
Given that the top 0.001% would prefer that the system utterly crash rather than give up even a modicum of their wealth, power, and authority, one has to be prepared that the rentier Power Elite top 0.001% (and within that group the top 0.00001%) will respond with increasing reaction, use of state violence, and imposition of draconian measures to put down dissent and social unrest at every opportunity.
Hilbillary is the perfect transitional, entitled, overly ambitious, delusional oligarchic figure to be selected as the CEO of the Anglo-American-European, militarist-imperialist corporate-state.
The Donald is a predictable, similarly meglalomaniacal, self-delusional, imperial oligarchic counterpart to Dame Hilbillary as imperial CEO.
Out of a population in North America, the UK, and Europe of around 1 billion human apes, any one person who perceives himself or herself as worthy to wear the imperial purple as CEO of the imperial corporate-state should be immediately disqualified to have the job, as he or she is a bat$h!t-crazy lunatic of global historical proportions.