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This Is The "Big Weather Pattern Change" That Is Sparking The Massive NatGas Rally
Having collapsed to record lows last week, NatGas futures have soared almost 40% as record warm temperatures in the Northeast (and a record glut) have given way to forecasts of a "big weather pattern change" in January.
As The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts notes, January will see a huge flip in temperatures compared to December...
From 'Hot' to 'Not'
h/t @DanLeonard_wx
And it appears February Nattie is pricing that demand in...
In fact, as WLKY reports, in past El Ninos that peaked early like this year and had the core the warm water in the Pacific out in the central part of the ocean... like this year... the last half of winter was much colder than the first half of winter 90% of the time.
Bye Bye Q1 GDP!!
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Damn I was about to go out and buy 2 homes, now it's too cold. Oh well.
I suggest you buy some iglos instead.
Good news for nattie but watch for other economics to blame cold weather for their woes.
... Bye Bye Q1 GDP!!
Yeay! Here comes the data-seeking-fine-tuning with double seasonal adjustments! ;-)
Looney
Bye Bye Q1 GDP!!
Yeay! Here comes the data-seeking-fine-tuning with double seasonal adjustments! ;-)
Looney"
Are "double seasonal adjustments" like "double-secret probation"?
It is more of an orgasm, a fart, and a burp - all faked at the same time. ;-)
Looney
So, GOLDMAN SACHS levered HFT paper option algos coded to 'hit all stops' in a thin volume market now qualify as a 'weather pattern'? Whocoodanode?
As long as there´s always one of 51 states with good golfing conditions. Where´s the problem?
By the way the heat wave is actually due to -->
Nonstop Chemical Geoengineering Has Pushed the Planet into Climate Chaos
http://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=27876
HAARP moved the firewall. Look all you ignoramase downvoters. What would make the Jet Stream make a 90 degree turn North as it approaches the USA West Coast? Like Obummer and Moochelle, it ain't natural.
57 States now by Presidential Decree.
Maybe 58. There's a bit of confusion on that one.
I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missouri!
I suggest people get a clue and realize the earth, on average, is indeed warming. Not as Al Gore or any of the compromised scientists warn, i.e. from life-giving carbon; but from 1) massive releases of previously trapped methane in ice formations in and around the arctic, and 2) from the negative feedback loop created by the utterly MASSIVE spraying project that has been going on right before our eyes for well over twenty years...you know, the geoengineering project most of you geniuses refuse to investigate and understand. They are literally spraying us like insects for a variety of reasons, one of which is an attempt to increase the reflective albido of the sky. But the end result is causing life threatening changes in the weather and an increase in warming. Folks, it is the spraying in the sky that must be stopped NOW if we are to have any hope for long term surivival. But nothing will change unless people wake the fuck up and realize it is real. www.geoengineeringwatch.org
maybe it's the planet x or nibaru /sarc
I wonder what your pathetic wage is for such enlightened trolling. /sarc
Go ahead, ignore and deny the spraying and THEY will keep altering the climate until the sheep beg for the NWO-funding carbon tax...to "save the children and the planet." That's the plan.
Whackadoos seem to come in every stripe and flavor...
Global Warming started with the Clovis Indian Culture (who were warned to stop driving their Cadillac Escalades or else the polar ice sheets that covered North America would recede). Some people never listen. Sheesh!
... this guy is so funny I woulda think he is a commedian! You br0 of Kat Williams? Ha-ha! Common br0 give me some fat mama jokes...
hahah downvoting a lot of my posts, not only in this thread also others. Thank you. Me love you long time...
Baffled by the down votes with no effort to use logic or facts.
Any of you downvoters actually taken the time research the issue?
We have whistleblowers from the airforce. We have congressional commitee meeting notes from decades ago. We have funding trails, patents, u.n. position papers on ethics related to geoengineering, and the small matter of persistent trails in the sky which correlate with human and environmental symptoms.
What do you have besides downvotes?
I guess they all believe CO2 is warming the climate and want a carbon tax. I am fairly shocked by the downvotes. ZH commenters are usually a skeptical, critical thinking bunch but when it comes to global warming I guess they believe in big government.
Naahhh.
You're an idiot,
That's why.
F'ng moron.
Nice argument idiot. You really know how to put your thoughts together in a persuasive way. You didn't go to American public schools did you?
Note to self - Don't feed the trolls, who are out in spades right now. Here's the weather report - Heavy trolling all day on climate threads.
I believe the climate is changing because it always has. We've just been through an unusually stable period, that's all. Since no one alive can remember it being hotter or colder, folk's normalcy bias figures its the same as it always was.
When settlers arrived in North America there was a desert in Nebraska. Now, its covered (mostly) with grass. When the climate changes again and all that grass dies, people will probably blame something/someone instead of just saying, eh, the climate changes.
Great - now explain the Jet Stream making a 90 degree turn North just before making landfall on the West Coast. Look at the NOAA's own maps.
@Polonius
There, there...have some warm milk, and you'll get a diaper change
So it's not cow farts? That's good to know
clearly hit a hot button for the Langley, Monsanto, MIC crowd and their trolls.
You mean a positive feedback loop. Hegative feedback loops are for stability. Negative feedback is used to prevent runaway. In a negative feedback loop, a portion of the output is fed back as a system input to partially negate the input. In a positive feedback loop, the feedback is additive.
You are correct and I stand corrected. Thank you for the clarification. I think folks know what I meant - that the feedback creates a negative outcome for ALL OF US. It just blows my mind that seemingly intelligent people cannot see that the skies look nothing like they did twenty years ago, nor can they see why this has happened. The observable evidence is right in front of us every day and more disclosure of the patents and military objectives of the plan are constantly being revealed. The problem of climate change is a entirely created by the controlling authority through the weather modification program. And their plan, of course, is to save us from this problem which they created by blaming it on CO2 and taxing us further into enslavement.
That's 57 states.
-> Spent >10 seconds mentally imaging
-> Spent <10 seconds mentally imaging
Hell, let's just go for sextuple seasonal adjustment. That will give us 20% growth in Q1!
.....«That will give us 20% growth in Q1!»
...when what is sorely needed is a growth in 1Q....;)
In other news: "Consumption fell off a cliff in January and February when surprise colder temperatures and snow occured in the middle of winter.........
http://thesaker.is/technology-sitrep-how-russian-engineering-made-the-cu...
They blamed the warm December for poor holiday sales. They claimed people weren't out shopping because it didn't feel like Christmas
They blamed the warm December for poor holiday sales. They claimed people weren't out shopping because it didn't feel like Christmas
Indeed, buy iglos and help the economy grow!
Igloo backed securities. We're saved!!!
Is your Iglo-FICO-score high enough to obtain a RAM of 1 million dollar on that 100k dollar iglo? A FICO sub-zero will suffice. ;)
Now Macy's can off load those warm jackets that have been holding up Christmas sales numbers. Thank you baby Jesus
Nope. All this means is that now they'll blame the lack of sales due to the snow.
I was about to buy a condo in december but it was too hot.
Maybe Macy's and Dillards can now sell a few expensive winter coats. Go long apparal retailers.
Maybe Barry and his icky ilk will remain in Hawaii.
They also had the Panthers on Sunday.
"I'm sorry I had a fight in the middle of your Black Panther Party"
~ Forrest (Falcon) Gump
Who didn't have the Panthers? I mean really blow a undefeated season to the Falcons.
The Panthers got handled by the Falcoons. Maybe this will wake them up. Go Panthers.
No
Fucking
Logic
Got Concussion?
That and the SoCal gas leak.
Beat me to it. Gotta get that price up so the write off losses will be huge!
Socialize the losses!
Oh? That little false flag event that actually happened?
.
Holy shit! It is cold in the Winter!?
We need regulation to fix this problem.
...use a variant of QE to increase the temprature... something like C02-QE...
"We need to drone the Terrorist Winter immediately for screwing up the narrative of Global Warming!"
Al Gore
"It is cold in the Winter!? "
Not here in Ft. Lauderdale, unless you consider 65 degrees to be cold. We've reached that exactly twice so far this year, long after my bedtime.
I guess this means no meaningful snow again down here. Dammit. Guess I'll have to go to a Panthers game to see some ice (excluding that in my drink, that is).
Are they going to assign a NAME to the change in weather? Maybe....Winter Storm BOB?
Arctic airmass Hillary.
Positively frigid and nobody likes her around. She can sap the life out of you in minutes if you are not prepared.
pods
Bill, I never suspected you were pods all these years... how about that!
:)
pods told me once that on long trips through the south that he used his wife's snatch as a drink holder which kept his drinks very cold- so this all makes sense now
HAHAHAHAHA !! Dude ! That was SOOOoooo wrong !!! (funny as shit, though)........but WRONG !! LOL !
Bu Bu But, the rising price of natural gas is only going to help out those dirty nasty uncooperative Turkey lovin', Russians GDP....
.....and WHAT ABOUT UKRAINE and the rest of the EU.... you mean they are going to have to pay Russia, just to keep warm? Didnt half of Europe slap sactions on Russia? Shouldnt everyone be intitled to warmth, especially cheap warmth this time of year? Oh the humanity!
Oh, wtf am i thinking..... the IMF will just forgive the debt anyways....
Fuck the European model. Check out NOAA's 3-month forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.ph...
Northeast above normal temps and much of the upper midwest below normal precip. So, this is the classic pump and dump, and only that, algos gone wild.
Besides, natty is so cheap right now I wish I was on it (which is rare for me, becuase I've hated winter heating costs forever). I'm on straight firewood this winter. Not bad, but definitely labor-intensive.
I like to look at firewood as a exercise workout plan as well as a heating source. You are saving money on heating and on gym fees.
I used to do fire wood (for 7 years) then when the Stove finally was on its death bed I saw the light and changed over to a new stove that uses Rice coal. Fill the Hopper and You are good for about 2 days average. Much easier temp control and less labor. Price is a little cheaper too.
You are a very bad person and enemy of the state. Rice coal...humm??
Forty years using firewood for heat. Great exercise, warms you up twice and you feel somewhat independent of the grid. I love when the power goes out in the winter and I am still toasty. I thought I might end up with the firewood I started with this winter. That would be fine with me.
but when the power is out how do you keep up with Caitlyn?
Fortunately I'm not obsessed with transvestites like you apparently are.
You can't waste that firewood friend.
It doesn't grow on trees!
No, wait a minute.........
wish i was trading futures :(
whoever bought in made a KILLING
Whomever is buying energy and/or REAL MONEY futures (aka silver/gold/miners) will make a killing before all this ends.
Get in where you can fit in and while everything is at multi year lows!
<------Long GG futures
sell OTM PUT options for positive premium, if assigned hold till 4-6 12-24 months (with rollovers)
Here in NJ I see nothing but high 40s and 50s for first week of January 2016. So that's 25% of mild weather already accounted for.
I'm so sick of the lies !!!!!
LOL... almost forgot that the whole world revolves around NY and NJ (whatever happens there, is happening everywhere NO DOUBT)....
What in the hell are these traders thinking if it is 40-50 where the world revolves? Are they trying to lose money?
id say the N.E consumes alot of NG due to the high population density compared to the northern states..which is maybe why it has an effect on the price of /NG
i dont trade futures though ..so if anyone can inform me what exactly moves the price of natural gas..please let me know. i know the weather does..but the weather applies to all parts of the USA and the rest of thge world..not just NY,NJ and CT.
Prices are determined based on what TPTB decide. Fundamentals, like supply & demand only come into play when; well they don't.
MID JANUARY ... is 11th-21st roughly - not a hard math problem?
Once again all of our assets, futures, investments and speculations are held hostage to whatever happens in the silly US Northeast...
There's the Rest of the World out there, people...!!!
Bu But..... what about New Jersey?
the forecast calls for mostly dumb rednecks in the south and obnoxious kikes and wops in the north, with strong chance of dindooz in urban areas, stay tuned for updates...
The entire east and west coast plus Chicago is what holds a nation hostage...wait I am wrong..it is a few Oligarchs that hold the world hostage...nope wrong again...it is Satan.
3 strikes and you're out.
NOT in 'Murica.........ALL that matters here are the wellbeing of the two coasts at the expense of the rest of this pitiful nation.
Do not worry.
Oh, I thought it was the unstoppable natural gas leak in California that was causing the rally. You know? Bad news is good news.
Oh yes, and European Climate Forecast Models have proven to be very accurate...
Don't worry, they'll HAARP engineer some weather sooo cold, you'll be pissing yellow icicles...
Ok to buy MLPs like KMI again?
Wait until at least late February. Iran is coming online and the refineries are shutting down for maintenance in February.
stay calm and pay your carbon tax..
Gluts are bullish.
If the market is flooded, prices go up because no one wants it.
Additionally, yellen is hot and jock itch feels good.
The Fed and their "support" of markets makes every one of these statements make sense (even the Jock itch, when compared with an ass raping).
You know I am right.
Screw natgas, what does oil do?
Big weather pattern change = winter.
its the polar kotex
It's all Obamas fault!
Climate Change!
Yep, climates have and do change.
and Americans can easily lower their thermostats...break the hearts of nat gas speculators...
I'm keeping mine the same because there is coming the day when the gas doesn't flow anymore. Eat, drink and be merry for the third world is coming.
Think I still have my Jimmy Carter sweater around here someplace..
Haven't had my house over 66 in the winter and under 78 in the summer for the last 3 years. It's comfortable enough. Wonder what that cunt Gore keeps his palace at?
Don't worry, Algore will save us.
Once you understand that the Zionist industrial scale rape of children for global political blackmail and eternal private central bank debt money creation is not even the worst these psychos do...you will realise that weather modification or "geo-engineering" has been going on for over 70 years and that they are spraying us all with "Solar Radiation Management" chemicals like Barium and Aluminium salts to be ionised using HAARP like weapons....Only then will you really finally understand the depth of their madness...They literally don't care that they and their own children are inhaling these poisons as long as they get their desires in this life...Please wake up America...for your children's sake...the Biosphere is dying :(
While that is true; the biosphere is not dying and will not die until the One who made it all destroys it all and that day is closer than yesterday. So relax and inhale deeply.
The biosphere is just fiine. It wll kill us all off and return to its static state.
I love an optimist :)
Hey Comte, if a tree falls in the forest with no one around, does it make a sound?
Ease off the bong
Just looked out my window.
Still have 4 cords of wood, it has been a mild winter
Careful with all that "sparking" in Southern California. Nat Gas really blows.
http://gizmodo.com/a-california-gas-leak-is-the-biggest-environmental-di...
It's actually got more to do with what's happening over Indonesia.
Three month forecast of very mild temps---
This is misleading---
Even the shorter term NOAA forecasts do not show this. The weather model I follow shows nothing more than some brief cold in the NE this weekend. By middle of 1st full wk of Jan the NE will definitely be back to very mild temps, possible 50s. MN touching 40. In summation, this is not the kind of weather that will cause any kind of substrantial draw from storage. And just wait till late March when we start to see 60s and 70s. Nst gas storage could completely fill. NAT GAS WILL BE A WORSE CRASH THAN CRUDE OIL !!!
You mean the January thaw?
@Fox...heard the same prediction for here in Quebec...an early thaw, maybe as early as Valentines...
It's going to be cold in January in North merika.
What the Hell?
You don't Say?
Really?
I don't believe it!
You know it's cold outside
When you go outside and it's cold.
You say, "It's going to be cold in January in North merika".
What are you basing your comment on???
how many past el ninos establish the pattern?
It is not clear that the current El Nino has peaked...
and that too of course...
besides, this article is only to stroke the schlongs of snowball-throwing senator inhofe's fan club.
I like to try and be a value investor. Buy and Hold. I had always planned to invest in commodities as the price declined between 85-90%. No leverage, with the concept that commodities do not have bankruptcy/liquidation risk ie they cannot go to zero. All sorts - natgas, crude, copper agriculture etc etc. Nat Gas dropped 90% from $16 to $1.70.
The problem I encountered is that bcos of contango buy and hold in futures is less than optimal. The bottom line is you could gain large parts of a rally and you could actually miss most of the gains. ETFs that hold futures suffer greatly from contango over the long run. (Contango is the effect of future contracts being priced higher than spot) The effect can produce very poor results if the price sits low for a long time or move repeatedly up and back down over the course of a significant time period. If you look at ETF USO (Crude Oil) and UNG (Nat Gas) you will find that they lost correletion to the commodity and the returns are dreadful. For example UNG has declined from 500 in 2008 to around 8 today http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ung+interactive#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true} Basically the etf in addition to a yearly charge of say 0.005% will try to stay long the futures contracts, just as you or i mihgt do individaully. They clearly can't get it right.
Does anyone have any advice on how someone can stay long commodity futures long term by mitigating the effects of contango.
Btw The contango effect is attributed to storage costs of the commodities or hypothetical storage cost. For instance Gold paper trading does not suffer from contango as it it relatively cheap to store due to the the relationship between its value and bulk.
YES Grasshopper. You are very astute in asking the right questions after recognizing the Public Mkts Frauds. Stay out of them. ALL of them incl COMEX, Stawk, Bawnd, etal.
Buy direct and hold in ones' physical possession......it's the ONLY way to prevent being rehypothecated in teh Stawk Mkts and COMEX with Paper Barrels and tozs.
Whether it be buying the actual wells - you get a two-fer here with free storage adn self-determined "delivery times" - or holding the PMs in one's own hand and outside the cirminal Banking Cartel and Mkts.
I hear you buds. For sure nothing beat phyz and in your possession.
Crazy thing is nothing is foolproof. You could hold physical and get robbed at your home etc. Even have a boating accident!
But yeah out of all options esp vs trading futures or any paper assets. If you bought physical Gold at $400-600 Silver between $4-7. There could be no better investment imo
Re Hedger,
you buy the futures by having the contracts assigned to you when you sell the OTM PUTS and they expire ITM, the premium received (especially for nat gas) will cover the majority of your contango losses.
Thanks Anarchy.
If understand correctly you mean buy calls or sell puts in options for NatGas or other commodity futures. Unfortunately I have very limited experience with Options trading. I will look into it and read up on it. Thanks again
Strange because US National Weather Service is forecasting above normal temps for the same area thru March. Somebody is lying
I thought NOAA was caught taking the actual temp out of the historical data and putting their model temps in..
Yeah, what's a few degrees Celsius amongst global-warming globalist carbon-tax-exchange "scientists" assholes anyway?
Perhaps they should take some rectal temperatures, and apply that data, instead.
Going Forward, all NOAA forecasts must match the "Climate Change" Model.
So, expect the local forecast to be OFF! Just like the fake employment/inflation stats, WX will now become falsified.
.....So, you'll be sitting in your home in S Dakota with a -400 blizzard outside and the WX guy will be saying "we had a high of 65 today, light winds and plenty of sunshine!
Lying? The Empire of Chaos?
Nonsense. Scientists often differ. ESPECIALLY when it comes to predicting the weather, which is notoriously difficult.
That said, ECMWF is usually a little bit more accurate than NOAA because their computers are more up-to-date. Also, there are some quirks where NOAA isn't ALLOWED to factor in global warming expectations and are required to use historical averages when they know damned well that they're too low. So in a tossup between the two, I'd tend to believe ECMWF.
That said, all forecasters are in agreement that January will be much colder than December on the East Coast. So it's really only a matter of degree(s).
time to short global warming?
The Roman Warm Period certainly alarmed them, they caused two mini Ice ages right after.
Lets not delve into how they did it, I'm freezing right now and in the future I want to grow tropical fruit in my back yard (the Romans grew grapes in Kent)
nice time for juicing the market when all the sellers are on holiday
90% of the time, it works EVERY time!!
Year end bonus time. Stawks must stay up.
No grow zone: Israel admits spraying poison inside Gaza strip.
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151229/1032470597/israel-sprays-pois...
But! But! I thought the warm weather in the Northeast slowed Christmas sales???!!!
That's what I heard on FBN, anyway.
It may have nothing to do with the weather and everything to do with the Omnibus Spending bill passed by Congress which lifted the ban on the export of oil. If you will check, prior to lifting the ban, WTI was priced 5-7% less than Brent. They are now priced effectively the same. So, the USA consumers and business have lost a price advantage. In the area of natural gas, the USA price for LNG was about half in the USA as the world price. So, the price increase in natural gas may be because the USA price is increasing to the world price. So we will all get to pay more for heating and electricity and our businesses will lose a major competitve advantage. The Ryan Republicans wanted it so bad they traded everything else away. --- Betrayed again by Establishment Republicans more interested in their donors and future employers than their voters.
Ryan is a bigger pussy than Boehner. He's growing hair on his face so the non gay members know where to insert their cocks
Thank you chemtrails, HAARP and whatever else dafuk TPTB are throwing up into the atmosphere...we just got our first snow here in, what was formerly known as the great white north.
I'm just sorry that people from Texas on up, had to suffer unspeakable weather horrors, just so I could take a nice walk in the snow..
Bathed outside in a creek today without freezing my ass off. Don't care why, just enjoying it.
Just when you thought ZH couldn't get any weirder... :)