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October Case-Shiller Home Prices Soar Most Since March

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While it is two months delayed (and home sales have tumbled since) and before The Fed raised rates, Case-Shiller reports that home prices rose 0.84% MoM in October, beating expectations and the biggest monthly rise since March. While the YoY gains barely missed expectations at +5.54%, Miami, Tampa, and San Francisco all saw the biggest gains as Chicago, Cleveland, and San Diego saw the biggest drops in home prices.

It appears we are playing out the same seasonally-adjusted pattern as 2014...

Charts: Bloomberg

And yet, the rebound was once again all in the eye of the beholder: the seasonally adjusted data indeed shows the strongest montly increase since March:

 

While according to actual housing data, the monthly increase was the weakest since January.

 

In any case, here are the report details:

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1% month-over-month in October. The 10-City Composite was unchanged and the 20-City Composite reported gains of 0.1% month-over-month in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.9%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both increased 0.8% month-over-month. Ten of 20 cities reported increases in October before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities increased for the month

On an annual basis, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.2% annual increase in October 2015 versus a 4.9% increase in September 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.1% in the year to October compared to 4.9% previously. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.5% versus 5.4% reported in September.

“Generally good economic conditions continue to support gains in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“Among the positive factors are consumers’ expectations of low inflation and further economic growth as well as recent increases in residential construction including single family housing starts. Inventories of existing homes have averaged around a five month supply for the past year, a level that suggests a fairly tight market with limited supplies. Sales of new single family homes, despite recent increases in construction, remain mixed to soft compared to the trend in existing home sales.

 

“The recent action by the Federal Reserve raising the Fed funds target rate by 25bp and spreading expectations of further increases during 2016 are leading some to wonder if mortgage interest rate might rise... but previous data suggest that potential home buyers need not fear runaway mortgage interest rates.

Finally, these were the best and worst performing cities: San Francisco, Denver and Portland continue to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities with another month of double-digit price increases of 10.9% for all three. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2015 versus the year ending September 2015. Phoenix had the longest streak of year-over-year increases, reporting a gain of 5.7% in October 2015, the eleventh consecutive increase in annual price gains. 


 

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Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:23 | 6973724 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Housing sales have dropped dramatically and we are to believe the prices went up?  This is becoming laugahable! 

http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/01/pending-home-sales-stall-in...

http://www.dsnews.com/news/12-22-2015/what-caused-the-slowdown-in-existi...

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:47 | 6973813 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Simple math...

Fewer homes sold, but the ones that did were at the higher end.

 

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:48 | 6973818 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

What is laughable is Lawrence Yun's quote in that first link you provided, (emphasis mine)

"More jobs, increasing consumer confidence, less expensive mortgage insurance and new low down payment programs coming into the marketplace will likely lead to more demand from first-time buyers.”

LOL...

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:55 | 6973848 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And moar comedy from the second link above,

“The good news is that we should see the closing disruptions dissipate over December and January as the delayed closings turn into an increase in sales for subsequent months.”

Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist, Realtor.com

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 11:00 | 6973861 _mike
_mike's picture

What exactly is laughable? Prices and sales volume each move independently and yes, sales volume can decrease while prices rise. Case-Shiller is pretty reliable.

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:19 | 6973726 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

Blah blah blah.  We have more realtors here than homes for sale.  If you can afford to buy a home good luck finding one. 

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:48 | 6973817 bamawatson
bamawatson's picture

are  you serious? "If you can afford to buy a home good luck finding one." my god man open your eyes, every freakin street has multiple for sale signs, 'new price' 'price reduced' 'make offer'. what specific locale are you referencing?

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 11:12 | 6973892 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

That's going by our official local numbers.

 

But I suppose it doesn't account for fsbos and other non-realtor using means of listing and selling homes.  

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:23 | 6973740 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

fools rush in where angels fear to tread

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:33 | 6973771 moonmac
moonmac's picture

Using our homes as FREE ATM MACHINES again will bring us prosperity!

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:46 | 6973810 new game
new game's picture

with rents rising, incomes flat and the three income family(2 wives or 2 husbands) hey it is a peachy outlook, ha...

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:47 | 6973812 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

It's for the Children. 

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:48 | 6973820 new game
new game's picture

alice in wonderland - shake the glass ball and watch the snow bewilder the forcaster.

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 10:52 | 6973837 new game
new game's picture

my sister lives in san fran and google is building 6 miles from her. her house just topped a mil. a 2 br 1000 sf 50's rambler just north of the golden gate. and if one comes on the market, multiple offers, like 5-10 with 100,000 dollar backup increases. this is a top, maybe, with insatiable demand who knows...

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 11:22 | 6973924 Mick Shrimpton
Mick Shrimpton's picture

This is only a 20-city composite, and many of the 20 cities included are incredibly hot real estate markets.  Create a composite with the largest city in each of the 50 states and it will look totally different.

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 11:39 | 6973983 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

removed post due to rereading the table.

Tue, 12/29/2015 - 11:39 | 6973993 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

meaningless numbers look at the FED MBS and equivalent rent.  Economic nonsense as housing as investment or storage of wealth..   Just forced tax base for failed central planning. 

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