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The Russian Economy Is Cracking, "Social Unrest" Coming In "A Few Months", Official Warns
As you might have noticed over the past several days, the Russian ruble is in a veritable tailspin. The inexorable decline in crude has pressured the currency as have expectations of an uptick in year-end budget spending.
The ruble fell to a record low against the dollar on Monday and depending on crude’s trajectory, could well fall further in the new year. 2015 will likely mark the third annual decline for the currency which is under pressure not only from low oil prices, but from biting economic sanctions tied to Moscow’s alleged role in Ukraine.
“The wish to hedge potential risks from geopolitics and commodities may well push the ruble to 75,” Evgeny Koshelev, an analyst at Rosbank PJSC in Moscow, told Bloomberg by e-mail this week. “It will be interesting to see if there’s a reaction from the central bank, government and households to this weakening.”
Yes, it will be “interesting”, especially if crude slides even further. Here are Goldman’s projections based on three different prices for oil:
- At an oil price of US$35/bbl, we think the Ruble will be around Rub72 or close to current levels. Under that scenario we think inflation could be around 6% at end 2016.
- At an oil price of US$30/bbl, we think the Ruble will depreciate to about Rub77 or 10% below current levels and end-year inflation in 2016 could be up to 6.7%.
- At an oil price of US$25/bbl, the Ruble is likely to depreciate to the mid-80s and inflation is more likely to be up to 8% in December 2016.
While Goldman is fairly optimistic about what the future holds for the Russian economy - which, you're reminded, is in the midst of its deepest recession since 2009 - the Central Bank of Russia isn't so sure. In fact, according to the bank's "risk scenario," oil prices could hover around US$35/bbl in 2016 while GDP could contract by 5% or more and inflation might be stuck at 7-9%.
Russia's 2016 budget assumes oil prices at $50/bbl. If that proves correct, Moscow will run a deficit of about 3%. However, as Citi noted earlier this month, "a $10bbl decline in oil prices worsens the fiscal position by about 0.7% of GDP."
As Citi goes on to point out, the deterioration in the fiscal position "already incorporates the secondary positive effect of the weaker currency." In other words, the widening budget deficit associated with falling crude prices takes into account the effect a concomitantly weaker ruble has on RUB-denominated oil revenues.
So, combining this with the CRB's risk scenario as outlined above, we're to understand that with oil at $35/bbl, Russia's projected deficit jumps 23% to 3.7% of GDP which will itself decline 5% from a year earlier while inflation runs at between 7-9%.
If, however, oil were to fall to $30/bbl, the situation worsens materially. Here's Citi again:
A fall of the oil prices to $30bbl will thus widen the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP. Given that the 2016 budget is based on an oil price of $50bbl, this implies that the fiscal position may deteriorate to -4.4% (-3.0% -2 times 0.7%) of GDP at oil of $30bbl.This is a significant fiscal gap that would be the second largest over the last 20 years (largest deficit of 6.0% of GDP was recorded in 2009).
The fiscal outlook is further darkened by the trials and travails of Vnesheconombank (VEB), the troubled state bank that's been crippled by economic sanctions and is laboring under more than $15 billion in foreign currency debt (which is of course a disaster given the ruble's slide). As Bloomberg reports, VEB may need a massive state bailout that could end up costing upwards of $18 billion. Here's more:
VEB got its start under Soviet founder Vladimir Lenin as a bank to finance foreign trade. Putin overhauled it in 2007. Flush with cash from high oil prices, he pumped 180 billion rubles (worth about $7.3 billion at the time) in to boost capital and took over at chairman of the board a year later.
When the global financial crisis struck in 2008, VEB became Putin’s main tool for managing the shock. It got 1.25 trillion rubles (worth about $50 billion at the time) from the government and central bank to shore up the plunging stock market, help failing banks and bail out tycoons who were facing the loss of their companies to foreign creditors.
By the end of 2009, its balance sheet had more than tripled from before Putin’s overhaul began.
Behind the facade of western-style accounting and international credit ratings, the bank’s decisions were often driven more by politics than business, officials now admit.
“The bank, because of its status, took on certain tasks that can at times hurt its balance sheet,” VEB chief Vladimir Dmitriev said Dec. 22. “We’re talking about the so-called special projects.” Neither VEB nor a Kremlin spokesman responded to requests for comment for this article.
Starting in 2009, VEB spent $8 billion to finance deals allowing unnamed Russian investors to buy up steel plants in eastern Ukraine and keep them running
The legacy of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, which at about $50 billion were the most expensive such games ever, is another big burden on VEB [which ended up] taking control of more than 200 billion rubles of money-losing hotels, ski resorts and other projects.
The takeaway here is that much like the Novo Banco and Banif bailouts are set to add several percentage points to Portugal's deficit, Moscow may be forced to foot the bill for VEB. "Losses on the bank’s huge catalog of Kremlin-mandated projects could reach 1.2 trillion rubles, according to the Finance Ministry, or nearly half the expected budget deficit for next year. VEB faces $7.3 billion in debt repayments over the next few years and effectively has only one source of significant funding -- the state," Bloomberg continues, citing government officials.
Speaking of the Finance Ministry, former FinMin Alexei Kudrin - who unceremoniously quit in 2011 after a famous spat with then President Dmitry Medvedev - warns that the situation in the economy "isn’t very good." According to comments Kudrin made to Interfax, inflation in 2016 will be ~150bps above the official 6.4% forecast and with oil prices below budgeted level of $50/bbl, Russia may witness significant reduction of government expenses in several industries, or tax increases. What would Kudrin do to ameliorate the situation you ask? Well, we may be about to find out because now, he looks set to return to the government to assist in pulling Russia out of recession.
"Former Russian Finance Minister and investor favorite Alexei Kudrin is in talks with Vladimir Putin and other top officials about returning to a senior post to help deal with worsening economic troubles," Bloomberg reported earlier today, citing unnamed officials. "Kudrin has met privately with the Russian president and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as recently as last week to discuss the plans, though no formal offer has yet been made."
“Markets will like Kudrin’s return to government as they will assume this means serious fiscal consolidation and some significant and much-needed structural reform -- if Putin lets him take on the ‘power vertical,'" Tim Ash, head of emerging-market strategy at Nomura in London said.
As is the case in a number of emerging markets, the worry is that eventually, the public will become fed up with rapidly deteriorating economic circumstances even if, as is the case with Russia, part of the blame can be placed with outside antagonistic forces. On that note, we'll close with one last quote from Bloomberg:
Speaking on condition of anonymity, one senior government official warned earlier this month that the government has only a few months before worsening economic conditions begin to fuel social unrest.
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You mean the war is coming. Joo World Order loading... ... ... ... 43%
Overproducing hopium at that rate that now they take themselves.
One can only hope...
But I think the Russian will not stay and look how their country goes to ruin twice
Things aren't "real" until Americans are hungry and cold. 2018?
Among other destruction, debt and socialism is distorting the price discovery mechanism in the oil market. The most likely way this will be rectified in the shale plays is bankruptcy, and unfortunately, civil unrest for oil exporting countries that built their government around oil revenue. Explained here.
Americans underestimate the toughness of the Russians. They will deal with hardship better than most people.If one wanted social unrest in the U.S., all it takes is to cancel American Idol and other reality TV shows OR have Black Monday deals at your local malls every week.
And Joo World Order sounds about right, but i will do my best to ensure that wont happen in my lifetime
Honest to GOD. Vilad has a free ticket to BOMB THE MOTHERFUCK out of tel aviv.
The western muppets are callling for social unrest in Russia... Pfft, the average Russian is 10X harder than their American counterparts... They know what hard times are, while Merkans on food stamps drive their BMW to Wally World to shop for cheap shit with EBT cards... Perhaps these talking heads should focus on the coming social unrest in the land of MOAR because it's coming...
all that could be true assuming that CBR is still a part of the same cabal structure in 2016. people in russia might demand economical change, therefore giving the government political and public backing to enforce the disconnect from the world banking system..
Guess it depends on whether you're going to pay the counter party or not.
IMF Western Banks want to make sure you do. If you don't , they declare, you will become a "pariah". Iceland discovered this wasn't the case when they told Dutch and British banks to go fuck themselves.
Its just like phone calls from your overdue credit card company, on a bigger scale.
You ever think that a few untraceable smart mines in the Persian Gulf could drive oil prices to $100/bbl in a few days? I'll bet there are people in high places in oil exporting countries thinking that very thing.
Just for the record, the Russian FEDERAL budget is in Rub not in USD. So this article totally missed the point.
The point is the Russian will make everything for themselves because the import will be expensive (the USSR redoux in this matter). And what they can't make they will import from their allies for cheap.
Also, according what I heard, the Russian CB will give cheap loans for industrialization (and also they booted out the Rothschildes).
Guess it depends on whether you're going to pay the counter party or not.
IMF Western Banks want to make sure you do. If you don't , they declare, you will become a "pariah". Iceland discovered this wasn't the case when they told Dutch and British banks to go fuck themselves.
Its just like phone calls from your overdue credit card company, on a bigger scale.
There is also massive wealth disparity in the with millions having no savings or pension. If the economy finally falls of its perch there will be lot of desperate people.
Russia simply does what Romania and other Communist/Socialist countries do: Keep the people sopoor and so ill fed that they don't have the strangth to revolt. It is a standard part of the Socialist game plan. Although, you must also disarm them as Obama uh akbar keeps trying to do.
In the U.S. gubmint schools have ensured that all of the "men" are little fairies afraid of pocket knives and drawings of guns. There will be no revolution. Just running in circles, screaming, and play acting in city parks.
BS you know nothing about their economy.
I am from Russia and I know a lot abour Russian economy. Recently I have found Russian statistic agency annual data 1992-2014. Oil and gas production = not changed, Food production = increased, Manufacturing 2000-2015 = plunging. Debt 2000-2015 - from $160 bln to $580 bln. Manufacturing and agriculture workers number 2000-2015 - 15% down. Goverment clerks 2000-2015 - plus 100%. By the way, plunging during yeltsin was much smaller, than plunging during putin. Actually, mr putin = globalist and bilderbergers servant, having order to destroy Russia softly and slowly. He can talk any pro-Russian gibberish, but at the same time his greedy jewish friends pillaging Russia. All government work to fight crisis - just invent new taxes, to get something, they can steal.
Ukrop, better Psaki would not say!
Well done, banana earned the monkey can bite.
1) I am citizen of RF, so shut up brainless scum.
2) I am telling truth (there is documents in English too):
http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/pub...
Better read this:
http://vipbook.info/nauka-i-ucheba/sociology/260511-erik-ford-opasnaya-i...
putin replaced yeltsin, according to the order of ZOG to ensure final extrimination of Russia and Russian nation.
Dawai, dawai, no analysis, no reflection, Putler leaked, Polo traitors Raska, rolls Putler...
Enchanting and with anguish. Keep it up! To State Department for a salary don't forget to stop by.
And a million jump ropes... And 100500 trampoline for heroes of the ATO...
He-he... you blind. putin leaked from the very start. Just tell me, is not your lovely putin was six of yeltsin or (before that) six of sobchak? You think, that yeltsin really feel guilty and gave power to "Russian patriotic leader"?
Better read this (especially book by Bushin):
http://kitti-house.ru/library/21545-vlast-bez-mozgov-sbornik-knig.html
"I am from Russia and I know a lot abour Russian economy..."
From Russia but not Russian? Probably 5th column Israeli worm.
Double post deleted.
Americans know about Russia no more than they know Angola.
The ZH board is populated by Putin sympathizers and his paid trolls.
Yesterday I watch YouTub with an economic meeting with leading Russia economists. They are very pessimistic about Rutin's Russia future:
The bottom line: 2016 will be a pivotal years for Russia and the USA with no room for the Putin Regime in Russia.
I'm a Putin fan, where do I apply to become a paid troll?
So China, Iran, Syria, Belarus, Argentina, Brazil, India.... and so on and so forth are not friends of Russia? I know most of them are places none of us would really want to live but Russia is far from standing alone. Besides, war solves everything as long as one side wins and the other side understands it lost. And that is where we are going.
I watched YouTub for a while but all I saw was assholes.
As I've said umpteen times before: Unless and until Russia backs their Ruble with gold, launch their Beta-version of SWIFT, and force the EU to buy oil and gas in gold-Rubles or in gold, they are only playing a tactical game, a B-game, rather than a strategic A-game.
The extent to which this is being delayed, is a testament to the level of subterfuge that the Fifth Column of Sayanim and corrupt, self-serving Boyars/Oligarchs are preventing said Plan A from being played.
Double post deleted. WTF!!!
Yes, I agree. No any good for ordinary people in Russia.
Double post deleted.
Double post deleted.
this is good
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-04/closing-collapse-gap-ussr-was-better-prepared-collapse-us
That's why there are FEMA camps, govt handing out military equipment like candy to Police, dismantling Constitutional rights, taking away the guns from legitimate resposible gun owners, etc. You know...to protect us from those awful terroists. We Canadians will be polite first just before we riot ourselves.
I will bear the immense burden of offering my residence as a shelter for the population of fine, young Russian women to stay at until strife in the Motherland is over. In the meantime, I will also teach them about freedoms that us Americans enjoy they they so severely lack.
In return for these services, they can pay me back by holding my hand and having a nice personality.
Yes, that will do.
Sad that you only have a single digit on that 'hand'.
Accident or congenital ?
The unnamed source was speaking from his office in Foggy Bottom.
Oh yes.
My hand...
Did I ever tell you about the boating accident?
Such a shame.
No need to be distraught though. You would be amazed at some of the things I can do with my digit these days.
could you please enlighten me of the source of the information that made you believe that russian public excercises less freedoms?.. which freedoms are you referring to here? those from the school curriculum?
There is no Socialism in the US, never was and never will be. The US State and its resources are owned, controlled and manipulated by the elites that represent corporate America and other interests. The elites dictate tax policies and the masses of corporate welfare. Benefits are a sop to pacify the masses and hide the fact that there are millions idle. Soup kitchens like in the 20’s and 30’s would make very obvious that the recovery is a lie. The US is not socialist but it is moving towards totalitarian and corporate fascism.
So the camel fuckers in Saudi Arabia are punishing Russia for supporting Assad and Shia Islam. At the same time punishing us in the States for Shale Oil production and taking away their marketshare and profits.
And why exactly are we shitting all over Russia? Seems to me we have a common enemy.
riiight. SA is pulling the strings and Murica is being punished by them.
I think you are on the wrong site. Try www.msmsheeple.com. They agree with you there.
Another way to say "Energy Independence Plan " is to say all of the oil overproduction in the world is United States oil production.
The US is the new producer to the mix here as of late.
The US (and Canada) is a high cost producer. The US will never be the 'pivot' in the market given this. These will be the low cost producers and the 'oil war' has moved from price to securing contracts. No matter how far prices fall what will be more important is having a locked in customer. I can see Russia supplying more oil to India and China that Saudi for instance.
Between the interests and marching orders from Riyadh and Tel Aviv, the mercenary 'Merican Army and Fed will do their masters' bidding, to reshape the ME and attack Russia -- no matter what price the gullible, malleable, neutered Whites/Christians in Europe or N.Am. have to pay. In fact, the bigger the price they pay in terms of a degraded, corrupted and hijacked society, the less they will be able to exert their own will, values, goals and policies.
It's time for these mamby-pamby, hippie, Disney world Christians to morph into Crusade Christians, and kick out ALL foreign Usurpers, Agents and Sayanim. We need a Charles The Hammer Martel, not Charlie The Fairy Brown.
War is the way out of this mess and it will be easy to sell it to the Russian people. This suffering is the direct result of the policies of the west and nato.
Coming soon to your neighborhood, too.
by design
If Putin goes down I hope he nukes Shitsrael and the Kike rat centrals in Murka: DC, NYC, LA, Miami, Las Vegas, Chicago,.. oh and don't forget London where the Rothschild mafia keeps its HQ.
Just back it with gold already, Vlad!
Check out the gold reserves that China & Russia have acquired:
http://orientalreview.org/2015/11/13/grandmaster-putins-trap-2/
Looks like they are already ahead of this propaganda coming from Bloomberg.
Social unrest in Russia = boner for neocon and banker devils!
Social unrest in Russia = neocon wishful thinking
Absurdity of social unrest prediction can not even fathom.
Russians aware and aware of economic sanctions US government as petty emo imposed, strongarmed then EU into obedience.
And not a secret is Saudi duplicitous oil price manipulations.
Very much aware US 'color revolution' strategy US NGOs recruit traitorous paid agitators for incitation unrest. Importantly did not forget about Victoria Nuland and diplomats NATO, who were handing out cookies, financed the mass protests and poured soup with psychostimulants for Maidanov in Kiev.
And can first hand see destiny of jumping on Maidan is the glory of successfully ruin the country.
Any unrest and will be directed against lame, pimply adherents of the State Department.
Another annonymous high ranking gov official said everbody be skeered. Was that the official that wants a big raise/budget, or the official that hands out favors to friendly corps?
Oh wait, I guess that is EVERY gov official who ever lived in all of history.
This story is so boring and laughable it should be on the onion page one, april fools day joke.
<--Boris Badass-enov
<--Bullwinkle Obama
Very Funny. But help me figure something out: With the USD worth so much more than the Ruble, don't they got more Dollars when they sell their oil? Euros too, no? As long as they don't import much, they should be doing well, I would think. Like the Chinese selling their Treasury bonds now that the renmimbi has dropped, it translates into a lot more of the local currency.
If oil is priced in USD then $30 oil gives fewer USD to Russia than $35 oil. It may translate into more Rubles if the ruble continues to depreciate. However much of the external debt is USD denominated so lower oil price means more barrels to sell to make the repayment. Puutie has himself to blame for the wreckage of his private stimulus bank now failing. It financed the special projects such as Sochi Olympics improvements and oligarch bailouts for Puutie friends. Puutie has the military practicing on the Syrians and Ukranians so that they will be ready for the Russian people. Very little that a oil fueled dictator will not do to hold on to power.
The Saudi oil game is not directed at Russia or US shale. The targets are the Ayatolas and mullahs of Iran. Of course Iran would like nothing more than for the Saudi monarchy to implode. Economics of oil are tertiary considerations for the muzzie fanatics of either sect.
No idea.
Good point. If you find articles that not full of western bile twards Russia the economic analysis is more pragmatic like you suggest. Russia selling oil in US Dollars, paying its operating costs in Roubles and then using the US Dollars to pay off Russian corporate debt (transfering the debt obligation from Western entities and internalising it in Russia) and buying physical good. All strategies along with having an alternative to SWIFT and having an indigenous credit card system that makes Russia less vulnerable to financial attack. The two economies that are really under stress are Saudi and the US but that does not fit the narrative of the fools in the West.
Bullshit article - with complete hear say and inuendo
look they have rounding error for debt balance compared to USA at $19 trillion
Mother Russia and the Patriot Putin will prevail
obamaBOTS get your head out of your ass and the chip out of your forearm!!!!!!!!!
FUCK Washington DC ----------->support the Bill of Rights!
USA at $19 trillion????
Thats only what they are telling you, also I agree
Bullshit article
Try adding in all the unfunded liabilities, municiple debt, student loan debt, car loan debt, etc. On top of this there is all the 'carry trade' exposure, bond bubble and derivatives are off the scale and the vast majority will never find a counter party. Russia looks looks amazingly well run from an economic perspective compared to the US.
As a foreigner living in Russia, I say it's bullshit. Yes, some banks may have big balance sheets, but the central bank has been cleaning out most banks in the last 2 years, revoking the licenses to tens of banks who have commited fraud.
You need to understand why the rouble is weakening. It is mainly because some companies need to pay dividends and taxes abroad, so they need to get hold of dollars anyway. Yes, the oil is important, but it hasn't been the main driver the last couple of days. You see this every year, and with many other currencies as well. Just remember when japanese companies need to repatriate revenues from overseas, and they have to buy yen.
Regarding social unrest, it's unlikely. People don't care that much about the exchange rate. What they care about is inflation, which is quite high currently. But, it was much worse in January, when some basic products went up 20-50% in a matter of weeks. They rouble has already been depreciated and the economy has been rebalancing ever since, so I would not expect inflation to pick up significantly.
On the other hand, Russia is becoming even more attractive to investors. The price to rent an office is the cheapest in 15 years, and labour is very talented and relatively cheap.
Yes, tough times ahead. But remember, Russia has gone through the french invasion in the XIX century, WWI, WWII, cruel dictators, bankrupcty 15 years ago, and it has survived still. I don't think that this is as severe as any of those things.
Just a quote from a russian friend of mine: "The situation is difficult, so I will have to work better and harder". I wish I could hear such things in the west, where people start crying for any problem and ask the government to help them.
I too am in Russia and the situation here does not seem bad at all compared to this article. People don't complain about economics here. They are tough people who have had far worse situations as have their parents, grandparents, etc.
I am in the market for a Russian girlfriend, preferably in the 35-45 age range. Please PM me if you have any friends or aquaintences available. I am interested in bypassing the middleman commissions. Thanks in advance. I need a beautiful Russian woman who will be ready to face the coming apocolypse with me on the farm. Not interested in American whiney bitches.
How old are you darling? How tall are you? And what do you do for a living?
Plenty of Russia girlfriends around DC metro area.
I don't want any cunts that have been exposed to that shithole. Just saying. I have a net worth north of 9M in prime Illinois farmland with clear title. Does it matter how tall, old, or what I look like with that balance sheet? Seriously. lmfao
Guess that proves that money can't really make you that attractive if you still have to look for a woman with all that dough. Perhaps 9M and clear title just ain't going to be enough for you buckaroo.
You travel to the east coast? My wife has a friend...She's been here for some years but I wouldn't call her "Americanized" In fact, there are many Russians here who prefer to stay "Russian". Good woman, good character.
Great that you have farmland, and even better if you were a real farm and not an investor.
Age and height matters a lot, especially for women.
Unlikely you will find Russians women that want to live in farms in America. But there are exceptions.
Visit Florida late February—end of season. Go to the high end locations. You will find many women, Russians as well, looking for some sugar daddy. Be careful and good luck.
FWIW... if or when TSHTF, all the so-called "American whiney bitches" will have to undergo a 180 degree change of personality and attitude, or face some hungry, grim or even catastrophic times. Natural law will sort it all out.
Cancel that order for the Russian....I'll wait for one the 180 degree wenches. Thanks for all of your help.
I think you are absolutely correct on that one, Captain.
The first casualty in the upcoming war will be the concept of sexual equality.
Okay, one of the first casualties.
What a great advertisement for Russia.
We handle crushing misery and financial ruin well.
no substitute for intelligent feet on the ground for finding the truth...thanks
asierguti friend: "The situation is difficult, so I will have to work better and harder".
Good luck working harder than this one: Consumption!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets
+100 Agree totally. And it is so nice to hear someone who has the first hand experience. Excellent post!
I love your friends quote, I'm stealing it! My kid will quote me and it shall live on forever!
Wishful thinking? Russians know what it's like to suffer and also know that they're victims of ZATO and the MIC. So I'm not convinced that major social unrest is in the offing.
PS: I note that the report quoting the 'anomymous government official' doesn't identify which government the official represents.
Bloomberg in Latvia outsource now?
What a poorly disguised propaganda article.
Is this throwing a bone to the Putin-phobes?
Likely funded by Soros, who is reduced to this sort of propaganda after Putin wisely shut down the remaining Soros-funded NGOs in Russia.
$250 billion Russian Debt = social unrest
$19 trillion US Debt = Barely a Peep from the Sheep
It isn't the debt they would be rioting over. It would be the lack of ability to buy any product not made in Russia or to travel.
AFAIK, China makes most everything and still exports to Russia. RUB/CNY has been pretty flat all year.
WTFUD = Fool
Perhaps you have been out sucking on something while all of the TEA Party activety has occured in the US.
Puutie was elected again because he had a history of increasing living standards. The oil gusher gave the country the revenues to make lots of improvements. Now Puutie has screwed that up by taking his Ukraine adventure for no purpose. At the same time that Russians are ariving home in boxes the oil gusher has been reduced. And now it is evident that the major Russian bank founded to gund the growth industries has been used as Puutie's Piggy Bank.
Interesting to read the squawks from the Paid Puutie Puppies when an article shows up with facts. Unrest does not mean armed revolt. It could mean that there will be a peaceful end to the Puutie Plan of power grab and media control. Of course that has not been the course for the other deranged leaders of major oil producing countries. Russians have seldom been lucky in the past, It could happen this time but seems unlikely. Puutie has visions of being a Czar..
Wait until the NatGas price decline bites! Shitty times in Mother Russia.
What a fool, ass finger compared.
Documentary on Adam Lanza, Sandy Hook Shooter Features Investigators Harrassed Over Newtown Work
BULLSHIT!!!!!!... Leningrad was under siege for 900+ days during WWII and the Russian people did not crack! The Russian army was pushed to the banks of the Volga river in Stalingrad during WWII and they did not crack and ended up defeating the German 6th army. You think they will cave because of low oil prices? My Ass, they will. The Russians are a great and noble people who know how to handle adversity!!! I LOVE the Russians!!!
Yeah, the Russians can tolerate a lot of adversity. The trouble is, there is no reason they should have to.
This time, the trouble isn't the Wehrmacht at the front door. this time, the problem is their Glorious Leader and his cronies stealing them blind.
You finally shifted in the consciousness of the world community towards the cunt.
"This time, the trouble isn't the Wehrmacht at the front door. this time, the problem is their Glorious Leader and his cronies stealing them blind."
Wow, I didn't know Obama was their president also!
Away with them. Tyrants one and all.
yovatti,
Of course you are correct. There is no reason that the population should have to tolerate such adversity, except for the Puutie mismanagement and poorly chosen land grabs. They have the right to expect continual improvement in living standards. Puutie is not fulfilling those expectations so his time will be limited. Getting the wealth back from Puutie and his oligarch pals will take a little time but can be done, just as with Arafat, Marcos, and the Nigerian criminal rulers.
The Russian people had an NKVD gun placed firmly at the back of their skulls to make sure that they didn't crack. And their families were punished as well.
The question isn't how tough they were but how unfortunate they were that Hitler didn't finish off Stalin first before the West cancelled his reservation.
In many ways, Russia managed to lose WWII just as they lost WWI, even though they were on the winning side both times. Germany was rid of Hitler, but Russia still had Stalin's teeth firmly attached to their testicles on Victory Day (as they call it).
"Speaking on condition of anonymity, one senior government official warned earlier this month that the government has only a few months before worsening economic conditions begin to fuel social unrest"
That has been the (their) plan all along, but I really wouldn't bet on it. What about more unrest elsewhere? Or do they think it's time to push because time itself is running out?
And I just remember the Valdair meeting in 2014 where most of the issues have been covered already.
Weakening currency is the objective. Just ask Abe and Xi. Its the USD that is losing. What an unZH-like article.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PST0AIS:IT
russian social unrest vs. 'murican rot?
I would be much more concerned about turmoil here in the US as stagflation hastens and the 'social net' weakens. The Russians are tough and enduring, and their country is not being overrun by immigrants. Yes, they may have a very lean decade or two, but the US will lose its empire.
100% Correct.
Sure - the Russian economy is in trouble.
THE ENTIRE WORLD ECONOMY IS IMPLODING!
The Russians?
I studied Russian history in grad school, and I must say if I were betting between Russian toughness (they fought 75% of the German War Machine in WW2).
Yeah - the Russians are far more experienced with dealing with shortages, hunger, than Americans.
(Americans think standing in a food line to get artisan beef at the U Dist food bank (Seattle) is "tough living")
(wake the hell up)
You'll have to explain your reasoning for that 75% calculation. Perhaps at a certain narrow time frame, after Hitler turned on the man who made it all possible for him in the first place. But over the entire course of the war? Definitely not. Over the course of the war when Russia finally came into play? Definitely not.
And I think it is highly misleading to equate Russian toughness in WWII (with a commissar's pistol at the back of the neck and dire punishment meted out to the families of those who performed poorly) to that of current day Americans.
We were plenty tough back then too. And we didn't need a line of NKVD deployed behind our boys to make sure they did their job.
Neither modern day Russians nor modern day Americans are the equivalent of their 1940s ancestors.
The Russians are tough and enduring, and their country is not being overrun by immigrants.
Over run a long time ago. Muslims are about 10% of the Russian population.
Ordinarily, I would be tempted to invest in a country with these kinds of headlines.
But unfortunately, Putin and cronies are stealing everything that isn't nailed down, so I'll have to give Russia a pass.
Yeah ...
Powerful people NEVER steal shit in China or commit corruption in China ...
(or Japan)
(or the United States)
(just Russia ...)
(and that Putin ...)
(all other world leaders are good and decent)
---> sarcasm -OFF
Since Russia, or the Soviet Union went through this before, compliments of the KSA in the 1980's, one would imagine that they are well aware of the game that is being played.
It worked like a charm last time.
What has changed-- apart from the fact that Russia is a much weaker state than the mighty Empire of Evil?
Dont worry putinittes!
Have no fear!
Your glorious leader will survive the coming purge of humanity, in class and style.
He has a billion dollar home to ride out the coming violence and suffering.
https://www.thrillist.com/home/photos-of-vladimir-putin-s-secret-palace-...
Thank you for this fantastic story.
You're enchanting idiot.
Russia has a different outlook.
https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/323063-russia-economy-returning-growth/
But they don't have the all important annonymous official to back up their story, so it's just propaganda.
In translation, the NGOs are preparing protests before they are pushed out
I would consider this article to be part of the propaganda war. Nothing in there seems to relate to Russia today. Why did 2 million Ukrainian's move to Russia to work. Why are Turks moving to Russia to work, now that will illegal after tomorrow. 1.2 million refugees fled Donbass and are being added to the Russian society.
Yes, a lower ruble hurts imports and raises inflation of imported goods. Russia has corporate debt problem, but the state is very stable with 450 billion in reserves.
Jobs are growing as imports are being replaced.
If you think Russia will descend into a Kiev style revolution because the rubel has lost value, then is suggest watching more CNN and FOX.
I was in Russia in the 1990's several times during the great collapse. People lost jobs, people went hungry, pensions ceased to come on time. Revolution? NO, no revolution. Just a grim resolve to survive and rebuild.
Russians know there is a full blown American war being waged against them. With the EU joining in. So they expect economic pain as Russia changes from an importer of EU goods, to a producer of it's own. That switch is expensive, and will cost money.
Oil? If you think oil is down forever, then go ahead and think that. I don't share your thoughts on low oil for decades to come. The oversupply came about from production of Expensive Marginal Oil. Like Deep Water, Tar Sands, Fracking. Cheap easy to pump oil has NOT been found for decades. Russia has cheap oil, and an endless supply of medium to high cost oil. Russia can afford to supply the domestic energy needs for next to nothing in cost. I suggest such cheap energy, added to vast resources like Russia has, is hardly going to result in collapse.
Why is the USA desperate to get rid of Russia? Becuase Russia is weak and about to fall apart? Or because Washington fears a growing Russia? I suggest Washington is desperate to destroy Russia out of fear.
Are their problem. Certainly. Compare their problems to the EU and USA. Who is going down? If you believe the above article, you must throw logic, facts and history out the window, and believe just another western hit piece, more hope than reality.
In fact, I spent the last two days reading up on Russia's economy, and now I see this and almost fell over laughing. More western lies. America is so deep into lies now, it seems that is all they have got. Tell a lie, maybe it will come true. And if Moscow is about to collapse in revolution, then what is gonna happen in Kiev, a state in 1,000 X worse condition that Russia?
1,000,000 x thumbs up.
I think people who believe Russia's situation is worse than ours?
(these people are referred to as idiots)
na
More Jewish propaganda and lies
I agree with you, but have a slightly different view of the big picture.
There can be no doubt that the US is afraid of Russia, but not because R is growing, rather because Russia will have its own cheap oil in its homeland when the US is dependent on imports and the slow, expensive retorting of shale.
How is it that most of the countries that have been destabilized or threatened (Iraq, Iran, Libya, Venezuela, South Sudan etc) are all large producers of oil?
The US is anticipating the day when 'peak oil' is no longer a joke and production can not meet the needs of a capitalist economy. Then, with its legions encamped around the major crude oil fields of the world, it will be able to challenge Russia for the possession of her own reserves.
IMHO:
The status of the US Dollar as World Reserve Currency (WRC) depends upon the PetroDollar Agreement(PDA) and the overwhelming use of the USD in international trade. The Russia/China/BRICS/Shanghai Cooperation Organization bloc's agreement to trade in their own currencies and European nations agreement to join the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank, and the prospect of oil exporting nations selling oil for currencies other than the USD, threatens the status and value of the USD. The World Bank?IMF system has just agreed to include Chinese Yuan in its "basket" of reserve currencies, causing much concern in the USA over its control of these institutions.
It is only the status of the USD under the PDA and as WRC that permits the US to continue to "print" USDs and have them accepted by the rest of the World as having value, in spite of the huge debt level of the US and its faltering economy. The PDA and WRC status of the USD allows the US to maintain its vast military with its hundreds of foreign bases and its carrier battle groups. The might of the US military empowers the US to force weaker nations to follow the US line in World political, trade, and financial matters.
Russia, Iran, Brazil, Venezuela, and some others have welcomed trade for their oil in Chinese Yuan, Euros, and other non-USD currencies.
If the PDA falls, and the competing BRICS/SCO bloc flourishes, the WRC status and acceptability of the USD will be at severe risk. Hence we have seen the takedown of Gaddafi of Libya and Hussein of Iraq because they were promoting the sale of oil for other currencies, and the coup in Ukraine to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia. The attempt to unseat Assad in Syria via ISIS is an attempt to tighten control over Middle East oil producers who might sell oil for currencies other than the USD, as well as extend influence over Muslim nations on Russia's southern border who sit upon vast oil and gas reserves. Syria is an ally of Iran and has agreed to allow Iran to build pipelines across Syria to Turkey and the Mediterranean while blocking Saudi and Qatari pipelines. Iran and its allies are only too willing to sell oil and gas for Euros or whatever currency other than the USD.
Maintaining the status of the USD is key.
You summed up the attack on the status quo ante of the greenback very well.
Two things, or maybe just one thing.
Putin and Xi are co-commanders of the forces threatening the USD. They must also know this.
What is their plan of attack going into 2016? They know the probable costs of subverting the status of the USD.
As for the US, if the attack on the dollar does not diminish and the petrodollar begins to take on water what action will the Treasury and Pentagon recommend to the Commander-in-Chief?
the slow, expensive retorting of shale.
It is expensive. It is not slow. Shale wells can be productive 90 days after drilling starts. Some in as little as 45 days. "Conventional" oil takes 2 years.
Ah, but i don't mean laying horizontal, perforated pipe into non-pressurized pools of shale oil that have accumulated below the surface of a shale formation (which is why shale wells only produce around 200 barrels a day.)
Most of America's vast resource of oil shale is mostly in itty bitty pieces a lot like what's in a gravel driveway. And not suitable for horizontal drilling.
When all the pools have been discovered (the easy ones are found first), and drilled, the shale industry will have to retort the loose shale to produce oil.
RINSE, REPEAT AND PAY FOR THE ENERGY TO HEAT THE RETORT (which adds to the cost per barrel.)
According to the Saker and some other commentators, there is a power struggle going on in Russia over control of the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance, which are now in the hands of "Antlanticists", i.e. Western-oriented bankers of traditional internationalist mold who want Russia to remain securely ensconced in the Western banking and financial camp. Opposed to these Atlanticists are Putin and his cronies, who want to take a course more independent of the Western financial, banking, and currency system. Reportedly, Putin has had to compromise with the Atlanticists by taking Medvedev as a political partner and leaving the Atlanticists in their offices, otherwise Putin would not have been allowed to take power. The Atlanticists have restrained Putin to some extent in responding to NATO and US provocations, and until recently he could not see his way, politically, to becoming involved in Syria against ISIS over Atlanticist objections.
Lately, the Saker reports, the Russian media has contained an increasing volume of allegations of scandalous behavior in the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance, which some see as the Putin government establishing grounds with the public for the ouster of the Antlaticists. This commentary by Koshelev of Rosbank might be just a returning propaganda shot to shore up public support for the PTB in the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance. Time to stock up on popcorn?
If you dig back in the ZH archives around Christmas of 2014 (I think), you will see the same elements of disastrous Russian devaluation and the same laughable moustache-twirling hints that it is all an evil plot of the Central Bankers, but Putin is about to come to the rescue and get everyone untied from the railroad tracks before the sawmill starts up.
But as soon as the crisis fades, Putin goes back to being chummy with his selected figureheads once again and praises them for their level-headed conduct in an emergency.
But make no mistake, this is an emergency. He may have to throw a few sacrificial lambs onto the fire.
It is not record low for ruble to $. It was in december 2014 1$=80 rubles, and 1 euro=100 rubles. Maybe your terminal doesn't show that?! In that time some terminals halt showing move rub/usd because it was wild move, you remember that? But it was stopped on 80 for $1.
And for Kudrin predictions, just look what he talk in december 2014. Also, this same talk was in december 2014, how russia will be break and so on in 2015, so i want to say hello to Bloomberg anonymous from Russian government.
If price of oil go to $30-35 on average in 2016 that will not break up Russia or something like that, if someone not believe he will see that in december 2016 like he was see in today that russian not break apart on much lower average price for oil in 2015 than forecast, contrary
Good luck to everyone.
People talk about $35 or $30 oil as the floor. The real floor is the inflation adjusted low of $17.50 in early 1999.
As long as Russia is allied with China against team USA (NATO, KSA, etc) in this assymetric war they should do fine. Note that Russian oil exports to China surpassed Saudi Arabia for 2 months out of 10 reported so far this year. That is a trend worth noting.
Something unforeseen will happen long before the ruble collapses. Whether that is war or something different remains to be seen. But whatever this unforeseen event turns out to be, it will be significant enough to disrupt global economics in Russia's favor.
The Russian people are well aware of the neocon agenda. I know quite a few Russians here in FL and they more than savvy about how the US is trying to impose its will using declining oil prices and the US dollar. Like Madame Defarge in Dicken's 'Tale of Two Cities', they are knitting and waiting knowing that like Hitler, the trap wil eventually be sprung on they predator.
So what are they doing in Florida?
They are enjoying all that lovely money they spirited out of Russia before Putin got his meat hooks on it.
Speak of Madam Defarge and who shows up but tarabel.
Irony doesn't get any better than that.
Watch out, tarabel, Defarge dies at the end of the novel.
Gets stabbed in the vagina.
You better dangle a tea tray between your legs.
Well, hi there, Bid. Fancy seeing you in a place like this.
And you are wrong about Madame Defarge. She is immortal.
Every time you open up the book, there she is. Still there.
Go ahead, check again. Maybe I'm wrong.
Total BS! As I have posted before, Zerohedge is loosing all credibility.
Enough said!
What this all means is ...stay away from SA and Qatar.
If only.
Russia is weak she exports oil. America is strong, Uncle Sam exporting... dollah!
I spoke with some important people (on condition of annonymity) and they said that this article is 100% facts.
So Russia might default on its loans and fuck NATO right in the ass?
I know the Russians know how the living in a third world economy is...but the big question is are the Americans ready to live this kind of life? Because there is where US is heading rapidly.
Butt, butt Pootin is so dreamy... why, WHY.
Orc don't growl, teeth will fall out.
*crickets*
worth a read if you missed it:
http://thesaker.is/putin-and-israel-a-complex-and-multi-layered-relation...
so is this:
http://www.softpanorama.org/Skeptics/Pseudoscience/harvard_mafia.shtml
and this:
http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v14/v14n1p-4_Weber.html
and this:
"We’re relentlessly told that we must “never forget” the “Six Million” victims of Hitler and the Nazis. But we hear far less about the vastly greater number of victims of Lenin and Stalin, and the grim legacy of Soviet Communism. Some 20 million people perished as victims of the Soviet regime, historians acknowledge. Jews played a decisive role in founding and promoting the egalitarian-universalist ideology of Marxism, in developing the Marxist political movement, and in brutally establishing Bolshevik rule in Russia. With the notable exception of Lenin, who was one-quarter Jewish, most of the leading Marxists who took control of Russia in 1917-20 were Jews, including Trotsky, Sverdlov, Zinoviev, Kamenev and Radek. The Bolshevik killing of Russia’s imperial family is symbolic of the tragic fate of Russia and, indeed, of the entire West."
http://www.ihr.org/mwreport/2012-01-18
The war on Russia is and has been for over a hundred years largely a war by Jewish oligarchs and bankers.
There is zero doubt about it.
Putin's disgorgement and arrest of the almost entirely Jewish thieving oligarchs - the Semibankirschina
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semibankirschina
is very largely why he is so villifed in a jewish dominated media.
Why Putin is Under Attack
http://globalfire.tv/nj/05en/politics/putin_jews.htm
Note parallels to post weimar Germany, where Jews where the overwhelming beneys of hyperinflation - working with jews transnationally to buy up assets for a fraction of their value. and no, I don't like hitler, his racism, statism or violence - but as has so often been the case organized and ethnocentric jews cared only about themselves, had no loyalty to germany, and saw the non-jews as things to be cheated and exploited.
https://archive.org/details/JewishDominationOfWeimarGermany1919-1932
happened in Poland [and elsewhere of course] too.
http://www.culturewars.com/2003/RevolutionaryJew.html
..."A short summary of Jewish demographics gives some indication of how successful the Jews were in living under Polish rule. Between 1340 and 1772, when Poland was partitioned for the first time, the Jewish population of Poland increased 75-fold while, during the same period of time the Christian population only quintupled. The disparity in population increase is explainable in simple terms. Persecution in the west, largely during the period from the 11th to the 16th century, caused massive immigration. Jews moved to Polish territory during that period of time in unprecedented numbers. By the time Poland was partitioned for the third and final time in 1795, 80 percent of the world’s Jews lived there.
This phenomenal expansion of the Jewish population in Poland was matched by a correspondingly rapid increase in wealth, and that, in turn, corresponded to a dramatic expansion of the territorial limits of Poland. The Golden Age of Polish Jews, according to Pogonowski, lasted from 1500 to 1648. By 1634, which is to say toward the closing years of this age, Poland had become the largest country in Europe. Its territory extended from the Baltic almost to the Black Sea and from Silesia in the west to what is now the heart of the Ukraine, two hundred kilometers east of the Dnieper River. As a result, by the middle of the 17th century, as much as 60 percent of Poland’s population was not ethnically Polish, a situation which was bound to cause friction sooner or later, depending on how wisely the Polish rulers treated their alloethnic subjects.
Instead of wisdom, what followed was a classical case of cultural drift in which imperial expansion covered over internal decay until finally the contradictions and injustices which had become an integral part of the system became so insupportable that the bubble burst, and an orgy of violence followed, eventually dragging the Polish state into extinction. The story of Poland was in many ways the story of Imperial Rome writ small. Imperial expansion to the east into what is now the Ukraine, the Crimea and Belorus resulted in the creation of huge estates, some the size of western European countries like Holland and Switzerland. The estates were called Latifundia, an ironic comment on the blindness of the Polish nobility, who failed to see the mischief which the Latifundia system had wrought in ancient Rome. The Polish Noble’s republic was a classic oligarchy, as Plato defined the term in his Republic. As in ancient Greece, so in Poland; wealth concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, led to rebellion among the lower classes. As in ancient Rome, wealth concentrated in fewer and fewer hands fueled a system of imperialism in which the chief losers were the overwhelming majority of the Polish people, in particular, as in Rome, the citizen soldiers, who were driven to the wall by the monopoly conditions the Latifundia fostered. When the rebellion finally came, all Poles would be held responsible for the excesses of the magnates who created the system which had dispossessed the average Polish citizen in the first place.
As in ancient Rome, the citizen soldiers who had been the backbone of the republic’s legions became the disenfranchised rural proletariat once wealth became concentrated in the hands of the magnates. "The citizen-soldiers who owned small and medium estates," according to Pogonowski, "suffered numerous bankruptcies and were becoming landless while still retaining their full civil rights and privileges." As a result, "many of them had to seek employment in the huge estates called latifundia." This, of course, meant that more political power migrated to the land magnates, who were now the employers of the enfranchised. As a result, "the political machines of the owners of the latifundia enabled them to attain an oligarchic control of the politics of Poland. Their control of the national parliament was based on their grip on the provincial legislatures."
In 1633, the Sejm passed a law forbidding Poland’s nobility from selling liquor or engaging in commercial activities. The Polish noble citizens—both the wealthy and the impoverished—, in other words, retained political control of the country, but lost economic control because they were forbidden to engage in commercial activity. Because the Polish magnates owned the land but were unable to engage in commerce, they were forced to hand over the job of income extraction to the nation’s Jews, who would pay a set fee for a lease to raise the money the nobles needed. The system of pre-paid, short-term leases was known in Poland as "arenda." The connection between the arenda system of tax-farming and the Jews was so intimate that it eventually found expression in the Polish language. In legal contracts in the 17th and 18th century, the Polish word "arendarz" or tax-farmer and "Jew" are synonymous. According to Pogonowski, "15 percent of urban and 80 percent of rural Jewish heads of households were occupied within the arenda system."
The Jewish legal system, or kahal, brokered these licenses to well-to-do Jews, who in turn often subleased them to less well-to-do relatives. In Polish private law, arenda was defined as "the leasing of immovable property or rights. The subject of the lease might be a whole territory, held either in ownership or in pledge [or] the subject might be a tavern, mill or the right to collect various payments such as a bridge toll or a payment connected with a jurisdiction." A Jew, for example, might take out a short-term lease on a church, in defiance of church law. This meant that he was in sole possession of the key to the church door, which could only be opened for the performance of weddings or baptisms after payment of a fee, a practice which naturally led to resentment among Christians. Since the lease was of necessity a short-term lease, it was in the Jew’s interest to charge as much money as he could to make back his investment and some profit, since the lease might not be renewed. Or, if it were, someone else might outbid him for it. There was, in other words, no financial incentive to create good will among the local population from which the arendator earned his living. The Jewish tax-farmers had the support of the state—Pogonowski estimates that 20 to 70 percent of the income of the large estates was generated by tax-farming leases held by Jews— but lacked the good will of the community which was the source of that livelihood. Since the Jew was not a part of that community, and in fact had developed, as Graetz indicates, a whole culture of treating the goyim with contempt, he could exploit the situation well beyond what would have been considered tolerable had Catholic Poles been running the system: "...
over and over the Jewish attitude toward non-jews has been the root of the problem, leading, surely, to violent reactions that mostly punished innocent jews, which turned into a facile narrative of jews being persecuted for no reason at all.
This should underscore the importance of free speech and intellectual courage - suppressing facts, generally to obfuscate and preserve jewish privilege and power, is not a wise course in the longer run.
The Doctrine of “Superior People”: The Bond between Israel and World Zionism
http://dissidentvoice.org/2015/09/the-doctrine-of-superior-people/
Does Jewish/White Privilege Exist?
http://dissidentvoice.org/2014/09/does-jewishwhite-privilege-exist/
************************
White Privilege as Jewish Privilege: Shuffling through the Complex... that is . . . Military-Legal-Pharma-Media-Prison-IT-Retail-Medical-Insurance-Banking-HR-Surveillance-Hedge Fund COMPLEX
http://dissidentvoice.org/2015/08/white-privilege-as-jewish-privilege-sh...
Impressive level of info, research and links. This is the kind of value-added comments that make the Comments section worth reading.
As observed before, how telling that smart-ass comments get the most votes, not the most diligent ones. It is telling of the superficial society we have become, even among 'libertarians'.
So... the MASSIVE VEB debt, in dollars... equals $55 Billion. Right? BFD... take a long look at OUR major "Banks", especially if you use mark to market accounting. And their derivatives... So much for another Obunghole propaganda article.
AS FUCKEN IF
CHINA, WITH ITS $3.5 TRILLION IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES WILL LET ANYTHING DISASTROUS HAPPEN TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY.
At this very moment China's accumulating rubles at 75 to the dollar.
Why?
Didn't China just announce it was going to eliminate Saudi oil purchases and buy all of their oil from Russia?
And won't they pay for the Russian oil in rubles that they just bought 75 to the dollar?
Goldman knows this is true. Ask Lloyd Blankfein how much of GS's investments in China are in stocks whose trading has been suspended since last Spring.
China is kinda busy avoiding anything disastrous happening to its own economy at the moment. And if you think that China's behavior towards Russia is anything other than a temporary marriage of convenience, you are mistaken.
If they are moaning about the seven dot line in the ocean, you can bet your ass they have plans for regaining their "stolen" lands held by those round eye motherfuckers.
tarabel
Sometimes I think you're smart and other times that you're as dumb as a shoebox full of dirt Like right now.
What's the point of all your denial? There are other ways of getting a good night's sleep. That's what your vibrator and the porn chanel are for.
A "temporary marriage of convenience".
Dude, the virgin birth of Jesus is more probable than that.
China and Russia have been hand in glove since their phony 'conflict' in the '60s.
And how did the Chinese launch their own space station in 2011 without the world's acknowledged experts on space stations, the Russians? Does ante 2011 (considering all the years of preparation that went into "Tiangong") really mean 'temporary' in the lexicography of tarabel?
I was in the import business for a few years. Plastic Christmas trees, wreaths and garlands. The Chinese factory owners -- in fact most of the Chinese -- are quick studies in the ways of us Occidentals.
By 1990 they knew exactly how to manipulate their economy and their markets. They just had to imitate the Fed. And make up numbers when numbers had to be made up.
Finally, sweetie, who can to manipulate an economy better?
A country who has $3.7 trillion in their sugar bowl or a country who owes tout le monde $19 trillion, without any means of preventing that sum from increasing every year?
That's a rhetorical question, sugar, you don't have to answer it. :o/
All a question of perception, my gallant beau. When things get rotten, as you know they will, I'm sure that the Chinese people will discover that there is 3.5 T in the joint 401k for the CCP and a couple of dead flies in their own cupboard.
But you speak of whom is smarter than whom.
Let's assume for a moment that a crash is inevitable. Whom is more intelligent? The people exchanging fake paper promises for material goods or the people gladly accepting them in return for the dearly-bought fruits of their labor?
Mind you, we're not speaking morality here, just which seems more practical to a dumb old shoebox like me. As a middleman who gladly took their merchandise and offered them paper promises in return, I'm sure you can see the validity of my argument provided only that you are willing to lower yourself to my level.
So, tarabel, who is the bigger hustler?
A country that pays for all the crap it's citizens buy with more and more borrowed money every year?
Or the country who puts its citizens to work making the crap that the citizens of first country can't live without?
There's no doubt in my mind that China has come out on top of it's dealings with the US. 40 years ago it had relatively nothing and today it has fleets of passenger jets, millions of Mercedes, more skyscrapers than a hundred oil rich emirates. A huge army and navy with new equipment. Oh, and their own space station, a claim that no other nation on earth can make.
I will grant you that China gets paid for the crap it sells in toxic fiat and, like the citizens in a country plagued by hyperinflation, they have to spend it before it becomes worthless.
So getting paid for your crap in dollars is a hot potato situation that'll burn you if you're not careful.
Not only is a crash inevitable, toots, but for everybody with a brain it's already here. The coyote ran off the cliff years ago. The animators in Washington have kept him up in the air since then. The US is paying for cheap Chinese knickknacks and their "prizes for the blind" (H. James) with questionable fiat that the Chinese are using to strengthen their military and build an infrastructure for the eventual doubling of the Chinese middle class.
Do you really have to ask who is smarter than whom?
Since EVERYTHING that China does is purely for its own commercial interests, I would not attribute to China any acts of virtue, that are not 100% proven as such.
Saving Russia would be an act of self-preservation and therefore more important to the future of the Chinese than the hypocritical virtues of the West.