Earnings Revisions Tumble To Weakest In 9 Months, BofAML Warns "More To Come"
Until recently healthcare had been the only sector offering any optimism from an earnings perspective but even that has collapsed now. The three-month earnings revision ratio (ERR) fell for the fifth month in a row to 0.53 from 0.55 - its lowest level in nine months, indicating twice as many cuts as increases. As BofAML notes, this is well below the long-term average of 0.84, and given S&P 500 sales revisions have collapsed to April 2009 lows, they forecast more cuts are likely to come... and a muted January effect looms.
S&P 500 Sales Forecast Revisions are the worst since April 2009...
And Earnings Revisions have re-plunged to nine-month lows (as mid-year hope collapses)
The ratio suggests nearly twice as many downgrades as upgrades to earnings. The ratio remains below the long-term average of 0.84, suggesting more muted near-term market returns. The more volatile one-month ratio fell to 0.54 from 0.59.
Which implies a drastically weaker January effect...
As all 10 Sectors have seen more downward than upward revisions to earnings over the past three months.
Previously, Health Care had been the only sector with positive revisions, but the ERR has fallen below one in this sector as well, to its lowest level in 2½ years. Materials continues to have the worst three-month ratio, with 5x as many cuts vs. increases to estimates — but an improvement from the prior month’s post-crisis low. Also of note: Industrials’ 3-month ERR is the lowest in three years (and still falling).
But, it's not just US corporates, Global earnings revision trends also remain weak...
Based on our global quantitative strategy team’s last update, the 3-month global earnings revision ratio fell in November to 0.59 from 0.68, as analysts accelerated their pace of downgrades. All regions saw the three-month ERR deteriorate, led by the US and Europe. Japan and the US continue to have the highest ratios, while Asia ex-Japan has the lowest, but all regions are now seeing more downgrades than upgrades.
The one-month ratio fell to 0.56 from 0.59 – the lowest in nearly four years. Global equity returns tend to be muted when the Global ERR is near current levels.
Source: BofAML
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AVERYBODY JUST CHILLAXE!!!
It's only going to be a 70% marketcrash followed by a depression that will last 2 decades.
After that, there's a slight chance of improvement!
Oh, and the best part will be that US unemployment will drop to minus 5%!
of course healthcare earnings collapsed - they sucked dry every last cent of disposable and non disposable income from the american public . Hep C drug in US: $1000. Same drug in India : $5. Guillotines are too good for those guys
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-drug-that-costs-over-1000-that-sells-...
Like the famous bank robber Willie Sutton said
"because that's where the money is"
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/12/31/year-in-review-housto...
Moar of Barry's "Change you can believe in" for the energy cities.
Oh yeah, then there's this:
Home sales plunge in October as pool of buyers shrinks Oil collapse, slowing local economy cited for first sharp drop in 4 yearshttp://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/Home-sales-...
Putin has to really regret tangling with Soweto now ... look at the way he's suffering!
... and look how the lovely friends Saudis behave. You don't need enemies when you got friends like the Saudis.
Revisions? Meh, no one cares about revisions as the markets already got the bump from the outright lies originally reported...
Disgusting - dentist are as disgusting.
Mankind; made in the image of God, but acts like the devil and blames everyone but themselves..only as I see it.
Yes, it is infuriating. There does not seem to be a law against profiteering, the very pointy end of it. Profiteering is obviously encouraged. In variation to the saying 'Corruption is not a victimless crime' we can well say 'profiteering is not a victimless scheme'.
Actually, the laws are *for* "profiteering". They are called intellectual "property" laws/patents.
In the 1970's, while only part of the world was folded into the IP umbrella and the remaining bunch of plastics and chemical manufacturers who retooled over to pharma still had to develop and market based upon first-to-market principles only, there were a few hundred percent more new drugs coming on to market per year than today, and costs were vastly lower inflation-adjusted. These are the exact same companies saying today that making good pharmaceuticals is impossible without IP. Fuck them, and fuck the government guns that keep this shit status quo.
Its' for the children, yes for the Children.
Sudden debt's comment is best of thread. +1000
Lunatic Fringe --- this is for you https://www.facebook.com/bama.watson.9/videos/vb.100006784955008/1665956... gotta blame someone
crank it up. full blast
"It be contained."
Thank you Bama...very peaceful.
the 2 decade call I imagine was based on the DOW not regaining its 1929 heights until the 1950s
We are already almost a decade in a big recession. Look at the current level of the stock market. Buy those stawks. This year, Nasdaq goes to 6000.
MEMO:
every and ALL, TBTF, are about to fail...
branch closing on a massive scale across the land of the free
where lies this land of the free you speak of?
Would that be the land of the click speaking leader?
https://youtu.be/W6WO5XabD-s
I think he meant the land of the pussies USSA
When this status-quo slavery nightmare will end?
This monsters in high places make me wanna puke.
Bad news is the markets good news until all the "smart money" has all exited (they have been in great numbers already) and have established their shorts, then the last one (Fraudster) out turns off the HFT Algo's and "it's gone"...the pensions, 401K's, 403B's and IRA's followed by banking holidays...good times coming; hope it happens after I am dead or "caught away".
Like the fake "Santa Rally", they can still have their January effect...we live in the town called "Surrealville".
I hope it happens when I am alive. And strong enough to do something about it. And also to say I TOLD YOU, BITCHEZ !!!!
HUGE number of before & after Xmas "sales" coming into my retail email box. Those 4thQ figures should be interesting.... MSM being very quiet about this.
Costs for our equipment and supplies since Obamacare have risen 150% on average. Some horrible coincidence I guess.
Miffed
sorry but this disturbes me and is off topic, did anyone of you group of matured and respected posters on zh ever envision a country where hillary clinton could even be considered as a presidential candidate. i've heard of skeletons in the closet but this sub-human has a ripleys museum.
the venality of hillary would seem unrivalled. Yet thoroughly within the general trajectory of the American polity
Amazing isn't it?
She's being investigated by the FBI while running as "the presumptive choice" of one of the two major political parties...and nobody even says a word about it...lol.
Its the Twilight Zone.
And every bit of shit that gets thrown at her still wont matter. Disgusting.
She is the first Teflon lady; must have very powerful friends.
She is the first Teflon lady; must have very powerful friends.
nixon would be dead jealous
Be careful, you may be on the edge of an existential crisis if you continue with such thoughts. But I must admit looking at the circumstances that nearly got a president impeached do seem rather trivial when viewed today.
Scary to contemplate what will be considered the new normal in American politics in 40 years. Constituent children orgies? Hunger games? Human chess games a la Mel Brooks?
Hilary Clinton in the White House is a scenario I refuse to contemplate. Whereas Obama was merely a puppet, she won't be found on a golf course during her reign. A psychopath with power. May as well throw gasoline on a flame.
Miffed
It will have to come to a head one day, but I don't think we are there yet.
We've been discussing here and came to the conclusion that Hillary and the Donald are probably equally bad, depending on the angle you take. If I take the angle that does the biggest damage domestically and overseas, that would be more and a new bigger war. We could not decide who is the bigger risk for another war with its crippled veterans, destruction, mayhem everywhere etc. They are both a risk and as the war rages - then it will come to a head.
He/she will probably do the new war in 2018/19. By 2021 the population will be fed up and what happens then is anybody's guess.
Returning to the topic: For goodness sakes where do these people expect real profits to come from when they reduce the opportunities for the people to spend money? Push down wages, make incomes flexible and insecure - then expect people would spend like in the 1960s? Hello?!?!? Too idiotic for me.
Obama is lazy. The HildeBeast is not. He is an incompetent idealogue. The HildeBeast is obcessed with raw power and control over others, a true psychopath. In my view, she most closely resembles Joseph Stalin. And like him, she is also a paranoid. Accordingly, she's far more dangerous than Barry.
If the HildeBeast is elected, kiss talk radio good-bye right off the bat. She'll then find excuses to go house-to-house for weapons.
The Saudi's love her -Even though she is regarded as being a woman, she eats more pussy than most Saudi royals. No elections there, but perhaps she would have a high place in the Royal family - once she shows them her surgically constructed 10 inch penis, she could have a high position in the Saudi government. Considering all the nubile, young female sex slaves available to her, she may very well take it.
Im totally Remiffed if not sickened by the very same thought. Almost beyond belief.
She wants her pound of flesh for suffering through her so-called marriage to Bill. And we're supposed to hand her the presidency on a platter for that? To quote nancy Reagan, "Who does that dame think she is?"
"Until recently healthcare had been the only sector offering any optimism from an earnings perspective but even that has collapsed now."
That's right.
And I intend to short some of these SOB's into the dust and get every fucking nickel (plus interest and the time value of MY money) that was stolen from me.
Cocksuckers.
Biotechs, pharmas, or hospitals?
Stock surges as company meets analysist expectation of bankruptcy.
Everyone is expecting the "January Effect"
I'm expecting CNBS blowhorn sales to rise...
Tyler, you left me hanging on this one re: health care.
How are the big insurers Cigna, United Health, Humana, Aetna doing?
And then, how are the health care PROVIDERS doing- you know the ones that don't just collect premiums but intsead offer health care, like Sentara out of VA, or CHS (Community Health Systems, out of Franklin TN?)
My health insurance went up 15% in December. And I have a $10,000 deductible, the highest I believe they will allow you to buy.
I am truly sorry for you and the millions like you. I had a good BCBS plan with my wife in NYS before the ACA.
$180/mo. per person with $0 deductible (yes, you read that correctly, zero) for emergency room visits and medications covered, plus 2 physicals a year, including free blood work for preventative measures. It was a catasrophic plan but we never go to the doctor unless we are deathly ill which has never happened yet so figured it was worth it just to have a catastrophic plan 'just in case'.
ACA kicked in and our plans went to $400+/mo. per person with IIRC a $8,000 out of pocket deductible before the plan pays a dime; no meds, no physicals, very limited in-network phsyicians. NYS also opted out of the 'if you like your plan...' bullshit fucking lie and we lost our existing plan permanently despite many hours on the phone being uselessly pissed off.
So our health insurance went from ~$4,300/year to ~$9,600/year overnight for two people in excellent physical condition, with no pre-existing health conditions who eat right, are well within weight limits, etc.
Long story short, we said fuck all that noise and now we don't have health insurance. I'm keeping my Goddam money like the folks who live in Alaska and live off the land do day in and day out. Think they have health insurance when they're out there swinging axes and riding snow mobiles through the forest and hunting bears? Fuck no they don't, and they do just fine.
I'm done being afraid. I will not fucking pay $9,600 a year for a 'what if' scenario insurance policy. Which, by the way would then require me to pay ANOTHER ~$8,000 out of pocket before I get a dime from them if I did in fact get hurt.
If I save $9,600/year for 10 years and don't get hurt I'm up $96,000. And if I do right and invest or build my business with that money over the same timeframe then I'll have a lot more than that. So fuck them. If I get hurt I'll either pay a private doctor in Mexico to get me wasted on well tequila and saw my fucking leg off with a goddam fork, or I'll do what the welfare rapists do and go to the ER, make them stitch me up in a nice clean US hospital and then pay them a dollar a month until the day I fucking die. You think those thugs getting lit up in our nation's inner cities pay their ER bills? Fine, I'll take their lead if shit gets nasty for me and mine.
What young people without pre-existing health conditions and no children forget is that you can fuck them back. Vote with your wallet and fuck them until the sytem caves in and the ACA is repealed (would involve Congress growing a fucking spine) or fixed (if that's even mathematically possible). If a shitload of young people did that and weren't so fucking afraid of life in general shit would change really fast.
Sorry for the rant, but I'm fucking pissed and I have been for years now about this nonsense. It's so fucked up it's unreal.
Good luck.
Dude, you're gonna love this. http://myobamacarenightmare.blogspot.com/