Oregon Standoff: A Terrible Plan That We Might Be Stuck With

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Well, there is whole host of things wrong with this situation, which is why I never supported or endorsed "Operation Hammond Freedom" to begin with.  There is a lot of misinformation out there at this time on the debacle in Oregon, and certain alternative media outlets seem to be conveniently overlooking particular facts.  I suspect that some people in the movement simply want to "kick it off" (a second American revolution), and they don't care if the circumstances of that kick-off are favorable or terrible (I realize "favorable" is relative, but starting this fight from a much stronger position is more than possible).  This attitude was prevalent among some at Bundy Ranch, as certain groups refused to dig in positions for a real fight in the hopes that they would be "martyred" for the cause.  This, in case you were wondering, is idiotic.

Oath Keepers including founder Stewart Rhodes was the only organization to predict how Ammon Bundy's vague calls for action on the part of the Hammond Family would actually play out.  They received a lot of ignorant attacks in response, and yet, they were absolutely right.

Ammon, apparently trying to recreate what cannot be recreated, is looking for another Bundy Ranch stand-off.  First, I would point out that such events can't be artificially fabricated.  They have to happen in an organic way.  Whenever a group of people attempt to engineer a revolutionary moment, even if their underlying motivations are righteous, it usually ends up kicking them in the ass (Fort Sumter is a good example).  Ammon's wingmen appear to be Blaine Cooper aka Stanley Blaine Hicks (a convicted felon), and Ryan Payne (who claimed falsely during the Bundy Ranch standoff that he was an Army Ranger and who worked diligently to cause divisions between involved parties on the ground).  This was the first sign that nothing good was going to come from the Hammond protest.

I have watched extensive video from the event in Oregon and am privy to accounts from participants.  From the information at my disposal, it would appear that Ammon and team did NOT make clear their intentions to occupy the federal wildlife refuge building except to a select few, inviting protesters to "take a hard stand" without revealing what this would entail until they were already in the middle of it all.  OPSEC?  No, I think not.  Obviously the goal was to lure as many protesters to Oregon as possible to the event in the hopes that they would jump on board with the stand-off plan once they were more personally involved.  Numerous protesters were rightly enraged once they discovered the ultimate motives behind the event.

The plan is basically this - use the Hammond family as a vehicle (yes, this is what is being done) even though they did not want any kind of standoff to result and specifically refused aid.  Occupy federally owned buildings which have little to do with anything of importance and have no symbolic power as did Bundy Ranch.  Elicit federal response.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

Bundy Ranch had many positive elements going for it, which is why it ended the way it did.  This standoff has none of the same elements.  I suppose one could ask, though, why do I care?

It's true, these people have every right to make positively naive strategic errors and I don't have to participate directly if I don't like it.  The problem, however, is that Ammon and friends have decided they want to be the "tip of the spear" (his words, not mine).  I do not think they understand what this means, or they don't care.  What it means is, even though I think the entire Oregon plan is ill conceived; literally the WORST possible way to launch a fight against federal corruption, if the federal government moves in a heavy handed manner to kill these people, I and many others will have to fight as well by default when a FAR better tactical and social position could have been achieved.  My conscience simply will not allow the rationalization of the deaths of liberty minded people even if their stupidity brought about the circumstances.  And frankly, that pisses me off.

As a student of asymmetrics, I understand that choosing the time, place and circumstances is 95% of the battle ahead against an advanced opponent.  More organization is needed.  More preparedness.  More training.  More public awareness.  The Oregon standoff could steal away what little time we had left.

The Oregon standoff potentially forces the hand of the Liberty Movement, not the hand of corrupt government - the exact reverse of what should be happening.

Mike Vanderboegh has outlined similar thoughts expertly in this article.  Everything he has written is exactly what was going through my own mind when I heard of the happenings in Oregon.  Ammon Bundy and companions are not the tip of the spear.  Not even close.  What I do fear is that they are cannon fodder beckoning a nationwide government crackdown to which I and others will then be forced to personally respond to with equal f*cking measure.  And all of this on the worst possible terms and at a very inconvenient time (executive actions on gun control mere weeks from now).

And here's the best part; those of us who remain critical of the clinically retarded maneuver being executed here are going to be called cowards and "keyboard warriors"; it's a given.  We are all ready to fight for the future of this country, we have been training diligently for it and helping many others along the way.  But, because we do not support two dimensional planning there are those that will say - "Now we find out who the real patriots are!"

Against stupid plan = coward against freedom and action.  Just watch.

If the Feds use brutality to handle the Oregon conflict, it will indeed "kick-off".  There wont be any way to stop it.  Just don't get too excited, folks.  This is no Lexington or Concord.  I really don't know what to call it...

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lolmao500's picture

If the Feds use brutality to handle the Oregon conflict, it will indeed "kick-off".  There wont be any way to stop it.

Maybe thats what Murica needs. Cause ``democracy`` sure as hell wont fix shit the way it is built... and if we wait for the military to do the ``right thing`` we'll wait forever

greenskeeper carl's picture

as I said in the other thread, this is either insanely idiotic action by really stupid people, or well meaning(but still pretty stupid) people who are being led around by some type of provacatuer type. Obama and his minions have to be having a good laugh over this, as the timing couldn't be better with them announcing some new kind of half assed attempt at gun control. What better thing could you ask for to get "average"people on the side of gun control other than: this shit. Hopefully most of yall are smart enough not to get caught up in this nonsense.

Overfed's picture

This has fuckall to do with gun control. It's about .gov overreach.

The Hammonds were (wrongly, IMO) convicted of arson and sent to prison. They served their time and got out. Now some assfuck federal prosecutor decided that they didn't pay dearly enough, i.e., they still don't want to sell their ranch to BLM, so he/she appealed their sentence on the grounds that they had commited a "terrorist act", and got them sentanced to an additional four years each.

Serious .gov fuckery, guys.

Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Everyone is expecting (including the Feds) of some blow-off top like the 90s.

Always expect the unexpected.

MarketAnarchist's picture

This is an extremely chilling article.  It is of great importance.

Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

If the movement is so weak, that one or two agent provocateurs can take it down, then it isn't going to amount to shit anyway.

Tarzan's picture

Be assured, when it kicks off, where ever it kicks off, it will be insurgents, not from your neighborhood, who stir this pot.  The Oligarchs will be pulling the strings to a blood bath!

If the People of Utah want to stand up to the Fed and take back their land, too stand up against the Fed pressuring private Ranchers to sell, let them rise up, that's the Power of State, as it should be.  So called Patriots from outside the state should butt out!

When the shit hits the fan,

Stay home, defend your family and neighbors!

tmosley's picture

Fort Sumter was fine. The problem was an agrarian, militaristic society running up against an industrial society.  It doesn't matter how good your generals are, a major industrial advantage will win the fight for you. Northern soldiers didn't have to carry their gear from battle to battle. They could dump all of their shit on the side of the road, march to wherever they were going, and get fresh gear and be much more prepared to fight. They also had plenty of food, unlike the Southerners.

If we are to have a revolution in this country, the FIRST thing we must do is disrupt if not outright destroy the supply lines of the Feds.  Until that happens, you are pissing in the wind. Eventually it will happen all on its own, which is why I advocate nonviolence and accumulation of "hideable" capital.

hal10000's picture

Is that why the Taliban whooped the Soviets and then the Americans?  I didn't realize that Afghanistan had a sizeable industrial base, just sh*tloads of heroin...  I guess I was wrong.

crossroaddemon's picture

a) neither the sviets or the US put more than a fraction of their actual armed might into Afghanistan at any point in time.

b) it's possible, even likely that those wars were fought not to win but to maintain a prescence... which meant never emergin completely victorious.

c) hardened people with real skills in a harsh desert environment is in no way analagous to fat cubicle workers with hunting rifles.

please refute the above before downvoting

Motasaurus's picture

The "liberty" movement in the USA is dead, if it ever really lived. Every crisis that passes, every government overreach that doesn't elicit an armed response, every kid shot dead by a cop that doesn't result in mass uprisings is further evidence of this fact. 

Are these guys agent provoceteurs? Who the hell knows. But they are just one more instance where the so called true believers in the constitution are going to throw people under the federalist bus because they don't really believe what they preach. 

Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

People are looking at this wrong. There's never going to be a legal rebellion or a just flashpoint. Who made the first shot at Lexington? No one knows even today. For all we know, it could have been a trigger happy attention seeker who wanted to be the “tip of the spear”.

More important is the long train of injustices leading up to the flashpoint and rebellion.

Now if you ask me if this is strategically the right thing to do, I'd say no. But I probably would have said the same thing about making a stand at Lexington. I'm the type of person who would rather keep the peace and buy more time to prepare, until violence is thrust upon me. But, I recognize not everyone is like that and it's probably necessary for others to start things.

I Will Explain All's picture
I Will Explain All (not verified) Gaius Frakkin' Baltar Jan 4, 2016 3:24 AM

This isn't the way to gain public support.  This article is spot on.  IDK what happens from here, but this was poorly thought through.

If they try to ban assault rifles, I'll have to go and fight. 

Motasaurus's picture

Gain public support? You gain public support by setting the public free from tyrrany, not by sumbitting to the destruction of the very idea of law.

runningman18's picture

If you really believe that then you do not understand the public very well.

I Will Explain All's picture
I Will Explain All (not verified) runningman18 Jan 4, 2016 5:13 AM

These be muppets.  Not patriots.  Yet.

Dick Buttkiss's picture

Non-violent secession is the only answer, and I don't care what the particular reason is. Rather, one or another state (my money's on Texas: http://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/22/texas-independence-must-happencommentary....) simply has to start the ball rolling, and that will be that.

NidStyles's picture

I'll be blunt. All of you talking about going out and starting a fight, you're full of shit. You aren't going to do anything, because you're running your mouth and have no idea who the enemy is. 

Dick Buttkiss's picture

That's precisely why secession is the only solution, by which I mean non-violent "walking away." And it if comes to a confrontation with the central government, then let it be an American Tiananmen Sqaure but on a massive scale. That is, let thousands or tens of thousands of Texans "sit in" and defy the US government to haul them off and/or gun them down while the whole world watches. Then see what happens.

As for guns, they aren't for fighting the US government (good luck with that; they're for protecting youself and your loved ones from your fellow "Americans" if it all goes to shit (which I'll grant is the most likely outcome).

Still Losing Money's picture

the south fought a CONVENTIONAL war against a superior force. VC, Taliban etc fight a +GUERILLA war. not the same thing. Take the US he south they should have NEVER fought pitched battles against the north, all hit and run, prolong the war and they would have won. Opposition to the war was huge in the north by 1864 imagine if the south had 3 or 4 more years instead of 1? When the south had the high ground and stome wall at Fredericksburg, ok, fight. when the yankees have the high ground and stone wall at Gettysburg, you disengage and manuever, YOU DON"T FIGHT. Lee lost his army at Gettysburg. If he had disengaged, he could have fought for a lot longer than he did. Then, like Vietnam, War on Terror etc, you in with public opinion back home. US military nevr lost on the field of battle in VN, Irag AFGN, etc the wars were lost at home.

Bananamerican's picture

Irag AFGN, -- these wars were lost 'at home'?.


they weren't meant to be 'won'!

they were meant to be waged


Milton Keynes's picture

Not really...


Lee had gone to Gettysburg to try and carry the war to the Union because the Confederacy was falling apart.


The South wasn't going to go fight on 3 more years, they were going to fall apart pretty soon.

Their principal export crop was rotting on the docks in Charleston, New Orleans, Biloxi, Norfolk.

50% of their man power was on the front line and 40% of their man power was rolling around whipping every slave, who cast a wayard glimpse at the planter's daughters comely curves.

The south was at maximum combat power on day one and declining, the Union was at minimum power 

on day one and rising.


The South had one steel mill and fought to preserve it, the North had dozens, so  the south was making do with shot out parrot rifles, and repaired cannon, while the north was making new ones every day...

Oh Sure, the South could have fought a guerilla war but, the big plantations were going to lose their 

slaves, and that was what they were fighting for.  An insurgency only works if you have unified people.

The freed slaves were not going to support the insurgents...


jwoop66's picture

Not sure why all the down arrows?  emotion?  Its true. The south also had a massive desertion problem.

Tall Tom's picture

So you are claiming that England's Steel Mills did not make the steel for the weapons for the Confederacy?


Just who do you think was buying that cotton for their burgeoning textile industry?


Just where do you think that the Naval Engagement of the USS Kearsarge and CSS Alabama take place? Did that happen in the English Channel?


Do you think seriously that Queen Victoria sat idle as the Crown's supply of cotton was restricted due to the US Civil War?


Do you think that Queen Victoria was contemplating a Declaration of War against the United States during the same time period that Gettysburg happened? (Had the tides of War changed in the Confederacy's favor in that battle then that just may have happened.)


Do you know that if it were not for the intervention of Czarist Russia that England would have declared war against the United States?


Did it ever occur to you that because of the US Civil War that France knew that they could violate the Monroe Doctrine and sent an expeditionary force deep into Mexico in order to establish a colony? The United States no longer bordered Mexico and could not answer as the Confederate States did...and were in the way.


That is right. France was at war with Mexico during our Civil War and got their asses kicked.


You really need to learn the real History of that time period and not just PARROT THAT BULLSHIT TAUGHT TO YOU IN HIGH SCHOOL.


You never considered the geopolitical atmosphere, the Global Ramifications.


Are you Bill's amazing LACK OF DEPTH?


Because Jack thinks in depth and as for Bill...he is rather slow..like a BIRDBRAIN...A PARROT.


Your lack of depth makes this venue seem lame.



True Blue's picture

Lee lost his Army when the Last Port open to the South (Wilmington NC) fell into federal hands.

Wouldn't have mattered if he'd been waging a guerilla campaign or a conventional campaign -with the Federal Blockade closing off his last access to imported supplies, the War was over. You can only command what you can supply.

Lee knew this, Lee knew that he could not do as Gen'l Washington had done -hold on with an army in the field until the enemy simply got tired of chasing you about.

With the Feds pushing down the Mississippi, cutting off Texas and opening the western flank of the Confederacy, whilst at the same time literally blanketing the Gulf and Atlantic coasts with the Navy to cut off supplies, Lee had no choice but to gamble with his invasion of Pennsylvania.

Additionally, (and more importantly) a victory at Gettysburg would have led to (at least) England recognizing the South as an independant nation. This would have turned Lincoln's War of Agression from "domestic" to "international" and completely altered the shape of the War (for example, England could have then run the Federal blockade and traded with Southern ports with impunity -and the US Navy couldn't have stopped them short of an act of War.)

The Afghans, the Vietnamese etc. (even G. Washington) they all had open supply lines to some friendly power and were Able to maintain a force in the field, waiting for the superior force to tire of fighting, or a PR campaign to get some outside power involved to tip the scales.

Pointless, as none of these things started with somebody barricading themselves into a cabin in the woods (and we all know how well That scenario ends.)

Hephaestus's picture

Do you think the feds could have used some new tech toy to beam "The Creators" voice into Bundys head? Like this


Hephaestus's picture

I wasnt serious....oh shit maybe I am. Look at all these people on medhelp bitching about hearing unwanted radio sounds.


Paveway IV's picture

"...Look at all these people on medhelp bitching about hearing unwanted radio sounds..."

I would bitch about unwanted radio sounds, too. The people you have to be worried about are the ones that happen to LIKE the radio sounds they hear in their heads:

"WTF? Hey... its polkas! I LOVE polkas - I can hear a 24-hour polka station in my head all the time! An they even throw in a nutty Schottische on occasion to mix it up euro-style! OMFG - I have died and went to heaven. Fuck you all, world. I'm just going to lay down right here on the sidewalk and enjoy a few polkas. Don't touch me... God damn it, don't touch me or I WILL KILL YOU ALL!"

DipshitMiddleClassWhiteKid's picture



Alot of so-called "insurgents" or "milita men" are just Akademy/Blackwater mrecenarys who will kill their fellow Americans- for lots of $$$.


dogfish's picture

Americans are not the people they they used to be the word liberty means nothing anymore just talk to a young person.

RevIdahoSpud3's picture

This link was provided in the other article. THIS is a chilling article:


Down to Earth Thinking's picture

Most here have no idea what has actuallly occurred. The real problem is that the Hammonds are not openly asking for any assistance from anybody that is why Oath Keepers is standing down. The timing of this is not good and realizing what battles to pick is of great importance ! This plays right into BHOs hands. But it isn't like it hasn't all been pushed to this point and direction ? Keep your powder dry boys and a cool head. 


And yes this is a very important article all should read. The conviction of the Hammonds was beyond egregious and full of many illegal acts. I only hope one of the liberty type legal movements takes up their case on appeal because they can win ! But so far they have been steam rolled by the judge and prosecutor and rolled over by intimidation of the beast !  

conscious being's picture

"... that is why the Oath Keepers is standing down."

Don't the Oath Keepers always stand down?

nscholten's picture

I read that article and it seems to sum things up a lot better than the above poor attempt to summurize a situation that has been going on over a 100 years with Theodore Roosevelt in 1908 and then escatated in the 1970's.

MarketAnarchist's picture

This is an extremely chilling article.  It is of great importance.

KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) MarketAnarchist Jan 4, 2016 3:05 AM

Good Luck Stryker, we're all counting on you!

bluskyes's picture

holy shit! what's to stop these bastards from appealing every sentence handed out? Someone needs to have a meeting with the judge.

iinthesky's picture

Divide and conquer at it most subtle... 

agNau's picture

"Homegrown terrorists"
Have a patch sewn on your shirts.
Like the guy said, there is a correct time to move.

Facts and media no longer mesh.
Who will control the story?

Armed with automatic weapons.

This thing is beginning to stink now.

Uncanny timing.

Transformer's picture

Either it's very bad timing for the Liberty movement, or for some unknown as yet reason, it is very good timing.    Looks like bad timing to me.  I think the juggernaut will sink of its own accord, financially, if just left alone. A dying, cornered beast can put up a hell of a fight.


nscholten's picture

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/723   states at the bottom about the Hammonds also required to pay $200,000 to the BLM by December 31, 2015 or they would have to sell the ranch so the timing could have been set in stone.

robertocarlos's picture

So just shoot the prosecutor. Then it's game over man.

TheDanimal's picture

I don't know about you guys but this just screams "double jeopardy" to me.

MopWater's picture

You're getting down voted hard, but all it will take is one undercover fed agent, a drugged up fringe guy, or someone with a Custer complex to play right into the Feds hands.

This isn't the tip of the spear, this is someone getting their hands in the saber.

pickupthatcan's picture

I wonder if Lon Horiuchi is making sure his zero is good. I'm sure that cock sucker is looking to up his kill count.

That's one obituary I look forward to reading. Tick tock.

Socratic Dog's picture

Nah.  He's graduated to drones.  Specializes in women on hillsides collecting firewood while breastfeeding.

NidStyles's picture

That firewood is UN property, just like the rain water that selfish bitch is collecting out back... Selfish peasants... 

Mad Muppet's picture

I wonder if Lon Horiuchi is making sure his zero is good. I'm sure that cock sucker is looking to up his kill count.

That's one obituary I look forward to reading. Tick tock.


I hope I live long enough to piss on his grave. By the way, did you know he was also at Waco?

Frankie Carbone's picture

I gave him 5 stars. As I said in another thread: There are a lot of STILL PROGRAMMED people on this site. They merely exchanged one set of macros playing in their brains for others. 

The problem is that they emote and feel and believe, rather than think and reason. THAT's the programming. So they are basically chumps, suckers that can easily be manipulated and fooled by playing on their emotions. 

That makes them very dangerous to the cause of liberty as they are fools, and as such, these dupes, chumps, suckers, or whatever else you want to call them, are apt to take the baited hook reflexively without time to ponder, reflect, analyze, and draw conclusions. 

Very dangerous indeed. 

Now this is not all of Fight Club, nor is it even remotely a majority. But it is a loud and bullying minority that are prime candidates for backpfeifengesicht.

Most of Fight Club I do hold in high regard. Not these girls though. Not at all.