The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of 2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Late in 2015, Germany's Handelsblatt reported, erroneously, that Venezuela was the best performing asset class of 2015.

 

It wasn't. The reason this was in error is because if one adjusts the returns into the real currency exchange rate, one which reflects the true implosion of the economy, instead of the government "mandated" one, the result is very different, one which shows that contrary to popular wisdom, during hyperinflation stocks are not a good store of value.

 

So what were the real best and worst performing assets of 2015? Here, with the full breakdown in both local currency and USD-redenominated terms, is DB's Jim Reid.

* * *

With markets wrapped up for 2015 now, reviewing the performance of asset classes last year shows that it was one where negative asset class returns were aplenty, while those finishing in positive territory were few and far between.

Indeed, of the 42 assets we monitor in Figure 5, just 9 finished with a positive return in Dollar-adjusted terms over the full year. Of these, the big winner was the Nikkei (+10.4%) - boosted by the accommodative BoJ and relatively stable Yen. In the periphery we saw both Portuguese (+6.5%) and Italian (+3.9%) equity markets also close higher, while in China the Shanghai Comp (+6.2%) finished up for the year but not without some huge volatility over the 12-months and of course ending well off the highs it posted back in June.

The S&P 500 (+1.4%) also closed just about in positive territory for the year on a total return basis although that performance was the worst for the index since 2008 as energy stocks clearly weighed for much of the year, while there was a similar return for US Treasuries (+0.8%).

At the other end of the scale there were some notable losers for us to pick out. In particular it was Oil which stole the limelight with huge falls for both Brent (-44.1%) and WTI (-30.5%) while Copper (-24.4%), Wheat (-20.3%), Silver (-11.7%) and Gold (-10.4%) were also hard hit. Both political and economic fragility saw Brazil (-42.0%) and Greece (-30.3%) fall the most in the equity space while EM equity markets finished with a broad -14.8% decline.

US Dollar strength was a big theme for 2015 as evidenced by the lack of winners above with the Dollar index returning a hefty +9.3% for the full year. This meant there were decent falls for the Euro (-10.3%), Aussie Dollar (-10.7%) and Canadian Dollar (-16.1%).

In local currency terms Russian equities (+32.3%) came out on top along with some of the peripheral markets. In the credit space it was the divergence between European and US credit which was most notable. Reflecting the higher exposure to energy credits, US HY closed with a -5.0% loss for the full year, while US IG was down a more modest -0.4%. In Europe we saw EUR HY finish +0.5% and EUR Sub Fins +1.4%, although EUR IG Corp was down -0.7%. Again converting this into US Dollar terms results in any gains for European credit being wiped out and in turn underperforming US credit for the full year.

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Mon, 01/04/2016 - 08:49 | 6994689 Takeaction2
Takeaction2's picture

Well...I have lots of stacks...floating in the lake...let's see how they do.  Today is good...will it hold?  I don't know why I care...maybe just to burn everyone that mocks me for being in PM's.   If it does go up, then what do I trade it for?  Not paper again.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:13 | 6994768 Kefeer
Kefeer's picture

It is a hedge against this massive debt that when it implodes and hyperinflation comes home, then you will be in a much better place than most assuming it doesn't get as bad as it could. 

 

Do not talk to people about PM's; keep it to yourself because if people reach the point where they have nothing to loose, then as Mr. Celente says rightly "they loose it".  That is when we see the manifestation of man's inherent nature bent on sin.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:19 | 6994799 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

bitcoin was up 40% in 2015.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 08:55 | 6994703 kamikun
kamikun's picture

Alright.. I'll just put it out there first. Show me the BTC!

(Up something like 50% from Jan 2015 to Jan 2016 ($280 to $430)... call it 70% if you count from its lowest point of 2015 to the beginning of this year ($177 to $430)

 

edit: public school math skills

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:09 | 6994755 highandwired
highandwired's picture

I keep saying this also, why don't they want to compare Bitcoin to the rest of this crap?  I wonder...

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:14 | 6994770 kamikun
kamikun's picture

Well they did in 2015 after bitcoin crashed throughout most of 2014

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-23/and-2014s-worst-currenc...

But when it recovers a signifcant amount of its loss and YoY outperforms everything else in the market... yeah, crickets.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 12:50 | 6995815 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

2 months ago it was down 25% in 24h, yeah THAT's a great currency

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 08:54 | 6994706 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Greek bonds at one end and Greek shares at the other end.

That says it all.

The system is F****ked and people are happy to keep skipping on a tight rope.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:00 | 6994733 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i thought my treasurys sucked until i looked at gold bitchez. heh heh

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:09 | 6994748 Kefeer
Kefeer's picture

Words of the foolish.   When the economics of Venezuela, Greece, Argentina, and Turkey soon to be added hit the US, then that Treasury will make gold and silver shine all the brighter...along with lead.

 

However; it could be that none of it matters if the worse case scenario were to occur.  Time will reveal and I pray for mercy upon all of us.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:20 | 6994807 thinkmoretalkless
thinkmoretalkless's picture

Hold an ounce of gold in your hand then check your account balance online. If you don't then feel gold has a place in your portfolio you haven't been paying attention.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 10:50 | 6995191 Slomotrainwreck
Slomotrainwreck's picture

I thought my AU and AG sucked until i looked at FANTAsy stocks bitchez. heh heh

 

Fixed it for yah.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:18 | 6994794 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

As long as silver outperforms wheat and/or corn, everything should be OK for the deflationary duration.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:36 | 6994874 Deus Irate
Deus Irate's picture

Funny how "assets" no longer implies anything real or of any true value. The entire financial system is based on imaginary wealth backed up by ersatz paraphernalia. Worthless and useless for anything, except larceny.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 09:52 | 6994949 Repet
Repet's picture

Bitcoin was by far the best performing asset in 2015. Depending on the exchange you use, it appreciated between 35% and 40% this past year alone.

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 11:47 | 6995467 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Caramba Caracas; Chavez's legacy to capitalism never stops giving, which is ironic to say the least; like a self fulfilling prophecy; even if the 99% lack toilet paper!

As for Ukraine;  those who invested USD in it, will need a crane to "raise Lazarus!"

Mon, 01/04/2016 - 17:34 | 6997235 GoldSilverBitcoinBug
GoldSilverBitcoinBug's picture

Bitcoin 01/01/2015=264 --> 100,000 USD

Bitcoin 01/01/2016=424 --> 160,606 USD

Not bad.

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