The Best Leading Indicator For Recession Is Flashing Red, JPMorgan Warns
Away from the endless chattering of talking heads proclaiming that "they do not see any recession on the horizon" despite the manufacturing segment of the economy collapsing, JPMorgan notes that in fact the three best leading indicators for recession are: Credit spreads, yield curve shape, and profit margins. Unfortunately for The Fed and its congregation, JPM warns credit spreads are not giving a positive signal.
Finally, JPMorgan confirms what we have long detailed here, credit typically leads stocks.
Certainly feels that way again...
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Rising minimum wages across the country this month will help wage growth...and home sales (0% down) and car sales (96 month mortgages) so it will all work out
you forgot all day breakfast at McD's
The Fed is saber rattling telling companies to get their debt under control and stop adding to it if they are living off it. a guess
I thought all day McD's breakfast was to accomodate the now legal stoners in CO, WA, and CA?
"Oh cut the bleeding heart crap will ya?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1WemnsB98o
The Fed's Plunge Protection Team will continue their stock buying program.
Don't believe me, ok so watch the Fed's balance sheet start mysteriously increasing. Stealth QE is going on no doubt.
The PPT came out in full force during the last 30 minutes on the Dow. Guess they're all rested up from the Holidays.........now reinvigorated.........
No way. That Mester from the Cleveland FED says the economy is on sound footing.
Four more rate hikes this year should fix these spreads REAL good .... *chuckles*
You could also argue that since this is the first time in at least 26 years that stock prices exceed high yield spreads by that much, that stock prices must be maaasssively overvalued.. the chart was the other way around during the last 2 market tops.
That black zigzaggedy line only proves that everything is awesome! Up, up and away!
1) We've been in a recession for 7 years
2) The word "recession" will never be admitted by any administration, especially Democrats. The Wall St masters ensure it. Folks are the right will be quick to use the term, but only as a justification to cut social services and expand military budgets.
Yes. The Recession "that shall not be named". As long as it's never named and we didn't call it anything...... it didn't happen. Where are the grown-ups around here?
I won't believe anything JP says until they come clean on silver.
they define recession as being stock prices going down. the rest of the country has been in a depression for twenty years but they don't care.
JPMorgan Chase is telegraphing that they cannot move forward without QE Infinity. This means that a QE Infinity announcement is next up on the MSM economic shill show.
End of FED 2016.
That's only a 15% drop... I WANT A 70% CRASH SO I CAN RETIRE!!!
confucious say blue line always go down before black one, now Sum Ting Wong?
Wery wery wong.
Don't dispute the credit cycle leading equities over longer term - the second chart using HYG vs SPPY is a little misleading however. That doesn't account for total return of cashflows, which would add approximately 5 points to HYG. Additionally, most of the damage in HY has been done in the energy sector, which is unlikely to repat on the same magnitude.