Three Reasons Stocks Will Crater in 2016
Happy New Year!
Last year (2015) likely will represent the top for the bull market that began in 2009. Stocks finished the year down, representing the first down year since the March 2009 bottom.

Many analysts will point to the August sell-off as the reason stocks performed so badly, however, looking at the chart, stocks struggled throughout the year, long before the August sell-off. Indeed, at best the S&P 500 was up 3% for the year!
Things are only going to worsen from here.
Firstly, the US Federal Reserve is now tightening. From 2009-2015, the Fed was always implementing loose monetary policies whether it by through QE, Operation Twist, or simply juicing the markets during options expiration weeks.
No longer. The Fed is now raising rates. This will be a major issue for stocks going forward.
Secondly, the US economy is back in recession.
I don’t care what the Mainstream media says, based on the cold hard data points stripped of accounting gimmicks, the US entered a recession last year. This is backed up by:
1) The High Yield Bond market is pricing in a recession.
2) The Credit Markets are pricing in a recession.
3) US inventories hit levels associated with recessions.
4) The ISM manufacturing index is at recession levels.
With the Fed tightening, the recessionary drop is only going to accelerate.
Finally, corporate profits relative to GDP are at their record high and rolling over.

Corporate growth can be generated via three ways:
1) Economic growth
2) Financial Engineering (stock buybacks and other profit boosting gimmicks)
3) Increased productivity
With the US back in recession and the Fed tightening, both #s 1 and 2 are over. This leaves #3. And while productivity did increase marginally in first half of 2015, it’s now rolling over again towards 0%.
In short, the sources of growth for US corporates have all dried up. Stocks have yet to adjust to this, but when they do it’s going to be an all out collapse.
Smart investors are preparing now.
We just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.
In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.
We are giving away just 1,000 copies for FREE to the public.
To pick up yours, swing by:
https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
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I decided to ask this guy to send me his detailed returns analysis for 2015,which is only fair and this is his link and it is dead:
https://phoenixcapitalresearch.com/contact-us/support@phoenixcapitalrese...
I read Phoenix - and Graham makes some sense. And I follow Armstrong and he does too. But they're poles apart on the SM.
Pretty much the same with all the 'experts', isn't it? End of the day, you're on your own. I guess that's fair enough.
I've been hearing about a Bail-In occurring. The bureaucracy can allow banks to use depositor's funds or replace them with bank stock.
Another concern is the return of mutual fund shares in the form of actually physical certificates. These instruments will clearly be less liquid and their distribution delayed until after the crisis.
The ability to defer liquidification of assets allows the continuation of a Ponzi or a rapid increase in debt. The creditors are repaid with the new capital coming into the entity.
We have derivatives stacked on top of these financial "assets." Price discovery is unclear in these dark pools.
Counterparty risk is there with all these over-leveraged financial entities. Top it off with the belief that the Fed will print their way out of any liquidity problem using, you guessed it, more debt. This is a huge moral hazard.
Even more risky is real political change that might force policy changes. 'The emperor has no clothes' thing has created a delusional version of reality at the top with sycophantic panting replacing deliberate conscious thought (especially about anything past the next election.)
Please define "crater."
Phoenix is as good a contrary indicator you are going to find, he hates any analysis that is more than 2 inches deep...
One reason stocks will crater...THE MARKET IS RIGGED!
WakeUpPeeeeeople wrote: "And if it gets really, really bad then flight to safety will consist of Guns, Grub, and Gold." The "three G's".
BUT there is fourth G: "Get out of the city!" or simply "Get Away!"
The LAST and WORST place one wants to be during an economic collapse is in or even near a city - even a mooderately-sized city! There will be social chaos and people will die - from lack of food, water or at the hands of other people seeking the same.
I now have a new house - built some distance outside of a moderately-sized city. And it is surrounded by farms. My wife and I have held several "come and meet you yoyur new neighbors" parties, for which we spare no expense. By treating them as friends and with dignity, we hope to create very strong emotional bonds with these people, so that they KNOW with certainty that we will be there for them in a crisis - and we expect them to be there for us.
I was a doctor (M.D. degree), specifically a surgeon. Then got into medical research; the later in programming for medical research. I am also a very experienced hunter (with rifle and bow), an avid gardener of vegetables and fruit trees, and even how to milk a cow! One of my family's businesses was in the milk transport business (farms to dairies - so I met a LOT of milk farmers who taught me.) I am also avid competitive shooter (in formal target and "combat style" matches for over 40 years), and a "outdoorsman" (I know survival tecniques, map reading & compass navigation, etc. - I learned and used this knowledge NOT to prepare for any economic collapse, but simply because I hunted in some REALLY far-away places (in Canada, Alaska, Colorado, and even in north-central Pennsylvania!!) and got SERIOUSLY lost several times, which is SCARY as hell - even when you know what to do to survive and find your way back to "civilization"! I hope this knowledge and skills will NOT become necessary, but IF they do become necessary, our new farmer neigbors will KNOW AS A CERTAINTY that I will be there to help them.
And that mutual help (especially with farmers who possess their own farming and OTHER skills) may just save us all.
Flight is better than fight in these cases. No matter how bad it gets, there will always be a beach somewhere with people sipping fruity cocktails surrounded by bikinis. Don't die for a soon to be worthless peice of dirt. Just my advice.
The asshat has been saying this for 6 years...
Has true price discovery returned? Has "mark to market" been reinstated? What about real collateral requirements for money creation?
No?
Fuck off then!
I have been gradually reducing my stock investments (in mutual funds) so that they now represent about only about 2% of my net worth. And I have NO debts.
I just sold an additional $70,000 USD worth of mutual funds today. One fund company at which I hold stocks is VANGUARD. I have been trying to close out what was left in my accounts there since October 2015 - without success! Vanguard kept coming up with excuses as to why the transactions did not take place - but I always had to call Vanguard to find out IF the withdrwals had been processed. I did the same with Vanguard today! This time I HOPE the transaction goes through !!!
Just a theory. Does ANYONE know if Vanguard in such serious trouble that it PURPOSELY has not been processing withdrawal orders???? And NOT notifying the people that those orders were NOT processed? (I have had NO probelms at all regarding my rather large withdrawals from my other mutual fund companies; only with Vanguard.
I for one am too having a hell of a time trying to get my 401k transferred out of Vanguard. Was, and now after your post am hoping is still just an anomaly.
Jack4952
i know feck all about vanguard, but its smacks of something wrong indeed... email jim willie, he'd prob know & give you a fair bit of info to boot
www.goldenjackass.com
If Phoenix says down than it MUST go up. Second only to Dennis.
Every once in a Blue Moon Gartman makes a good call so Phoenix is not second. Phoenix is still the unchallenged leader in the world of financial prognostication failure.
Zero Hedgers love doom porn.....Admit it, that's why you clicked on the article
Are all 1,000 gone yet? I got here a bit late.
Many businesses have "over inventoried" labor believing that the stock averages are forecasting higher sales and demand around the corner. We are currently at the highest ratio of business inventories to final sales since October 2008 in part because low interest rates make it easy to stock more goods with little carrying cost. When the markets finally break, we may again witness a hard landing driven by the dual liquidation of excess labor and stockpiled goods.
The easy money policies and artificially low interest rates of the last seven years has simply moved demand forward and created a slew of economic activity that is unsustainable in what would be considered a normal economic environment. The article below looks at how this will result in a hard landing.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/07/hard-landing-scenario-is-not-out-of.html
The 3 "reasons" cited here would also result in flight to safety of long-maturity treasuries, which pay interest and have transaction latency in only minutes, extremely low transaction cost, zero holding/storage cost, both for buying and selling, and are the global reserve financial asset.
And if it gets really, really bad then flight to safety will consist of Guns, Grub, and Gold.
So you have to ask yourself, do you feel lucky? Well, do you punk?
Got all the useful stuff, ie guns & ammo, 3yr supply of grub.