China Set To Establish No-Fly Zone Over Islands After Successful Test Flight

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When last we checked in on the dispute over Beijing’s land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea, several dozen protesters from the Philippines were camped out on Pagasa island in a demonstration aimed at raising awareness of what they say is an illegal occupation of the Spratlys.

To let China tell it, it’s the other way around.

That is, the Filipino troop presence in the archipelago represents an illegal occupation of territory that belongs to Beijing and China would be well within its rights to forcibly expel the occupying army.

The entire dispute centers around China’s construction of some 3,000 acres of new sovereign territory atop reefs in disputed waters. Although other countries have undertaken similar efforts, Beijing’s project is by far the most ambitious and Washington’s regional allies fear China is attempting to build what amount to a series of forward military operating bases in the Spratlys. The argument over the new islands reached a crescendo in October when the US sent a warship to the region in what Washington called a "freedom of navigation" exercise but what was, in reality, a show of force.

For those unfamiliar with the history here, the alarm bells didn’t start ringing in earnest until April, when satellite images showed China was building a runway on Fiery Cross reef. The 10,000 foot airstrip is long enough to accommodate fighter jets and surveillance aircraft and has been variously described as “a game changer” and an effort to “vastly expand China’s zone of competition with the US.” Here's a look at the runway in question when it was one-third complete:

On Saturday, Beijing tested the runway for the first time, a move which drew sharp criticism from the islands various claimants. Vietnam, for instance, has filed a formal diplomatic complaint. 

"China's first landing of a plane on one of its new island runways in the South China Sea shows Beijing's facilities in the disputed region are being completed on schedule and military flights will inevitably follow," Reuters writes, adding that "China's increasing military presence in the disputed sea could effectively lead to a Beijing-controlled air defence zone, ratcheting up tensions with other claimants and with the United States in one of the world's most volatile areas." Here's more:

Vietnam said the plane landed on Jan 2 and launched a formal diplomatic protest, while Philippines Foreign Ministry spokesman Charles Jose said Manila was planning to do the same. Both have claims to the area that overlap with China.

 

"That's the fear, that China will be able take control of the South China Sea and it will affect the freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight," Jose told reporters.

 

In Washington, State Department spokesman John Kirby said China's landing of the plane "raises tensions and threatens regional stability."

 

Senator John McCain, the chairman of the influential U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, criticised the Obama administration for delaying further "freedom of navigation" patrols within 12 nautical miles of the islands built by China.

 

China has been building runways on the artificial islands for over a year, and the plane's landing was not a surprise.

 

The runway at the Fiery Cross Reef is 3,000 metres (10,000 feet) long and is one of three China was constructing on artificial islands built up from seven reefs and atolls in the Spratlys archipelago.

 

The runways would be long enough to handle long-range bombers and transport craft as well as China's best jet fighters, giving them a presence deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia that they have lacked until now.

 

The airfield on Fiery Cross Reef will serve to "significantly" cut travel time between the Spratly islands and mainland China, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing a top engineer from the transport ministry.

 

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said at the weekend that the test flight was intended to check whether the runway met civilian aviation standards and fell "completely within China's sovereignty".

 

Asked about McCain's remarks on Tuesday, she said: "We hope the U.S. can take an objective and fair attitude, and not make statements that confuse the situation and are harmful to regional peace and stability," she said.

Right. So once again, both sides are accusing the other of jeopardizing "regional peace and stability." And while Beijing insists the airstrip is being tested for civilian purposes, analysts say it's just a matter of time before fighter jets touch down on Fiery Cross. "The next step will be, once they've tested it with several flights, they will bring down some of their fighter air power - SU-27s and SU-33's - and they will station them there permanently," Leszek Buszynski, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre says. "That's what they're likely to do."

After that, China will effectively establish a no-fly zone according to Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore's ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. "As these facilities become operational, Chinese warnings to both military and civilian aircraft will become routine," Storey said. "These events are a precursor to an ADIZ, or an undeclared but de facto ADIZ, and one has to expect tensions to rise," he says.

If that's the case then the ball is now back in Obama and Abe's court. Pressure will now mount for the US and Japan to take concrete steps to deter China from effectively seizing control of key shipping lanes through which some $5 trillion in global trade passes each year. How far Washington is willing to go to beat back Xi's ambitious maritime powerplay is as yet unclear, but if the past is any guide, you can expect The White House to err on the side of cowardice caution.

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Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:14 | 7002755 skinwalker
skinwalker's picture

Some drug lord should do this in the caribean for his operations. Be outside of any country's jurisdiction. 

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:28 | 7002809 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

Building islands was cheaper and quicker than refitting an old Russian aircraft carrier or starting from scratch to project power in the region. Also, they understand that aircraft carriers are rendered obsolete with a couple sunburns.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:31 | 7002818 Lumberjack
Tue, 01/05/2016 - 22:56 | 7003109 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

Yes, I'm aware. It will still takes a couple years to complete with new(er) technology (to them), and upgrading on the old Russian equipment with unproven systems. and then months of shakedown, sea trials, drilling/maneuvering and if there are no problems, then maybe a trip south for a stint.

But dredging up some mud and spraying it on some reefs is magnitudes simpler than building an aircraft carrier from scratch (even if they do have a ship from which to copy). And they already know how to build runways and military installations.

They wanted to flex some muscles and Spratlys was the quickest way to do it while waiting in the next carrier.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 23:17 | 7003175 Lore
Lore's picture

If I have to choose between islands and carriers, I'll take islands, TYVM.  As things stand, the Chinese are covering both bases.

You have to respect the simple brilliance of it.  "First come, first served."  There's something to be said for removal of ambiguity.  Any neighbors intending to throw a hissy fit should have done so long ago. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 00:11 | 7003280 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Solly Filipinos. The POTUS is busy on the golf course and passing gun control laws to disarm law abiding Americans ... and the troops are busy in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Paksitan and North Africa doing who knows what.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 00:09 | 7003312 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Could also be the distraction Xi needs to divert the masses attention while the economy falls apart. I mean, the guy has damn near declared the entire South China Sea as belonging to China. Start up a war and get the patriotic juices flowing...is that the plan? Knowing Obama is a pussy and now in his last year of legacy building and even crying on TV, it's no wonder Xi has gone all in. It's interesting that China's friend North Korea just set off a nuclear device. What timing.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 01:53 | 7003470 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

So the Chinese economy is falling apart and the Chinese people see it falling.

But in 2008, when the American economy fell apart, the American people were told they were in a triple-dip recovery and they ate it up with ketchup and relish.

Have you ever stopped to think where we would be if Father Bernanke hadn't printed trillions and trillions and trillions and poured it into the stock market instead of feeding the poor?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 01:56 | 7003474 xythras
xythras's picture

You have to admire this long term chinese thinking.

China was and empire long before US was discovered and will still be long after US will go back to inter-state disputes.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 06:14 | 7003694 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Dear Unthinking ZHers:

 

One cruise missile per island, and . . . They're gone!

 

What drugs do you take to turn your brains off like you do?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 00:18 | 7003349 Milton Keynes
Milton Keynes's picture

a couple cluster bombs and a runway isn't that useful either.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 01:44 | 7003463 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

That's why they put S400s on their islands ,Uncle Milty.

I don't see a career in the armed forces for you.  :o/

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 06:29 | 7003717 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Dear bid:

 

S-400s? When it gets to that point, the Doomsday Clock strikes Midnight; one multi-warhead ICBM and . . . All of the islands are gone!

 

Don't waste your time applying for Flag Rank.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:32 | 7004330 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

Opening salvos will not be on these sand castles. First blood will be from a downed aircraft or sunken ship, after that initial contact it's anybody's guess what happens next so saying that one cruise missile per island and thats it, is too simplistic.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 16:43 | 7006799 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Au contraire, Decafe.

The opening salvos will be at the capital cities of some of the wealthiest and most important nations on earth.  When the war breaks out there will be no wasting time destroying artificial islands.

:o) 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 16:32 | 7006712 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Mars

You are preaching to the cadets.

 the Doomsday Clock strikes Midnight; one multi-warhead ICBM and . . . All of the islands are gone!

I never meant to imply that the conventional phase of World War 3 would last more than 5 minutes, before the nuclear chickens would start to fly.

 All of the islands are gone!

And a couple of continents as well. 

A Happy New Year to you and the Mrs. :o)

bid    

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:33 | 7002829 thetruthhurts
thetruthhurts's picture

Hey...the US still leads China in foreign bases 700 to 0.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 22:03 | 7002927 uhland62
uhland62's picture

pst, mustn't say that because 'there is no limit to the greatness of America' (George W). 

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 22:58 | 7003120 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

yep, at a annual cost of ~ $300 Billion

now, who pays for this when europe, japan, australia goes broke and...[?]

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 05:30 | 7003646 IronForge
IronForge's picture

Good one; but who CARES?  ROTFL!!

The CHNese have TRADING AND BUSINESS PARTNERS 'round the World - for now - unlike TEAM_USA's Vassals, Colonies, and Bitch-States to host their Bases.

Those "Partners" have allowed CHN to park their Fleet in their Port on occassion in order to support their Trade Routes. 

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:43 | 7002855 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

Sorry, how exactly is the US supposed to make China back down in its own back yard?  With our ships that can be sunk in about 10 minutes with a Chinese missle?  A nuclear strike?  This makes as much sense as NATO taking on Russia in Ukraine, like NATO can beat the Russian army on the border of Russia.

Here's a radical idea.  How about just chilling out McCain and all the other 20th century Cold War fossil neocons who are so hell bent on starting World War 3, and maybe stop pissing off China, who happens to own our former industrial base and 2 trillion dollars worth of Treasury notes and bonds that they can dump whenever they damn well please.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 23:19 | 7003187 CoolHandLuke
CoolHandLuke's picture

"Some men you just can't reach..."

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:15 | 7002760 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

You can blind fold them with dental floss!

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:44 | 7002860 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

And yet, we give them drivers licenses.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:24 | 7002792 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Hat tip to China... I guess this was their version of the Seebees.

Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:25 | 7002795 Element
Element's picture

This is easy, ASEAN declares a no-fly and no ship zone over and around those Islands

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 01:39 | 7003457 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Then what, Einstein?

Figure China already has a half dozen S-400 batteries parked there.

Duh.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 02:11 | 7003492 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Pull that out of your butt again?

Last I checked (a few month ago) there were claims Russia had 8 S400 complexes in operational service, And China ordered them just a few months back, I know, because I mentioned it here first as soon as that news appeared. So no, the probably do not have one, and if they do they would not be putting it on those islands to every EW/ELINT/SIGINT/COMINT sensor aircraft and ship in the entire Western Pacific can listen to and record in detail every little electronic fart it makes, to figure the best ways to kill it, the fastest.

It is a strategic SAM, not a tactical one, and the one in Syria is switched off, and only supporting radars (not part of the engagement system) are switched on.

And sorry, S-300 or S-400 are not the miracle of the gods you imagine. At the moment the one in Syria is within range of Turkish precision-guided heavy rocket artillery launchers and are about a minute from total obliteration at any given moment if there is any funny business there. And that's just or starters, so dream on. I could go into what such systems can;t survive but t would upset you again.

You dis realize other systems and weapons exist that can kill them, in each situation, right?

Probably not.

Use it or loose it? No sorry, it's use it, and you'll loose it., and anything supporting it, or following on.

Welcome to reality.  ;-)

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 02:31 | 7003513 monk27
monk27's picture

Aussie BS ! Nobody is shooting anything from Turkey unless they want Turkey kicked in the teeth in no time. NATO is NOT going to war with Russia for a fruitcake like Erdogan. And nobody is going to do a damn thing against the Chinese. You wanna fight China in the Spratlys ? You'll have to inflate your rubber boat and scare them off by yourself...

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 21:25 | 7008278 monk27
monk27's picture

...last month

More aussie BS ! Must be that kangaroo meat you're eating down there... These B-52 flights will "suddenly" stop when the Chinese will put some fighters on those islands, hence the whole idea in this article. You seem to have some very serious reading for comprehension issues...

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 03:33 | 7003571 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

Take his words at your own peril.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 03:45 | 7003584 Element
Element's picture

What are you afraid of? The truth?

That's a pity.  :D

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 04:12 | 7003608 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

I pity on your ignorance fanboy. One who doesnt even know how Russian SAMs operate against both aircrafts and Ballistic missiles.Your reported numbers are also incorrect. I pity at your typical lack of knowledge on Russian Military gear and exaggerating of murkan toys. One who thinks Turkey ATACMs can not be intercepted via S-300 talks about truth? Hahaha keep posting  your clueless tirade. There are many wannabe experts like you living in their own alternae realities ;) 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 05:29 | 7003644 Lore
Lore's picture

I can't speak for anyone else, but I for one wish the juvenile longest-dick ego puffery could be set aside in this exchange so the sharing of useful information and insightful thoughts can resume. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 07:52 | 7003881 Element
Element's picture

Hey Lore ... boopy .... want some insightful thoughts? ... have a look below ... some insight into the reality of the situation behind all the Russian bullshit. Are you not 'informed'? Open your eyes and take a long look.

Ruskia Stronk!!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 22:44 | 7008705 Lore
Lore's picture

Exactly my point. I see a screenful of name-calling and hyperbolic crap. You have good points, but they can be delivered more effectively by skipping all the name-calling and noise.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 07:39 | 7003786 Element
Element's picture

Ah, the great Russian SAMs will rule the world, delusion complex! ... haha ... love it! ... marvelous how they don't stop air forces destroying them, or flying over and around them, any time required to, huh? And generally negating them, and making them almost completely ineffective. Scary stuff!!!

Bit if you're grand delusions are correct, pootie-jizzbot, you're effectively saying that pootie and Russia could like, totally pwn the air? Like, any time ... rights??? And like, support Assad via blasting away any air forces - right?

But he chooses not to? Is that right? Because he is a master tactician and strategist? And an all-around superman as well, huh? haha!  OK ... let's see ...

So effective are these mighty S-300 and S-400 SAMs, but curiously incapable of doing shit, that it must be left off or else cause the apocalypse will happen, or something, so super powerful it is!? Is that right? Such a ponderous performance, but strangely unable to be operated, for fear of it suddenly being destroyed?

Tell me jizzbot, do you think any more Russian aircraft will try the 'accidental' Turkish airspace crossing and incursion crap once more any time soon?

But suddenly their navigation has markedly improved!!  It's a blooming miracle!!

Wanna know how they dids its? Haves a looks!

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/ig8dqhdywhpvr7l10wtd.jpg

Yes, their russian 'celestial navigation', which you were bragging about it being so 'advanced' (1960s tech actually) is so capable of ... well, fuck all really ... that the Su-24s in Syria are now using US commercial-grade portable handheld Garmin GPS for a moving map!!!

Bwwwwaaaaaaahhahahahahahaahhaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!

Yes, 'folks', have a good look, that's a Russian Su-24's dash. Bleeding-edge Russian technology!

But needs a battery operated USA Garmin hand-held GPS just to function and operate without getting themselves shotdown!

https://buy.garmin.com/en-US/US/on-the-trail/gpsmap-64st/prod140024.html

hahaha!

There's technological  R E A L I T Y  for you delusional Russian dingbats!  hahaha  :D   

Maybe your S-400 doesn't come with batteries? Maybe you have to wind it up at the back?

But one must believe in der mighty Russian SAM mythology!!! ... because this time is differences!!! ... this times they will rulez the world ... for sures!!!

haha ... yeah! ... whatever ... thanks for the giggles once again.  LOL  :D 

Try not to cry too much, "bid-soldiers-blah blah".  ;-D  

Eeeeeeeeediot!  lol

I love you guys! I know that you don't really reciprocate, but you're all so cute when watching your antics and national cultural denial-ism from a distance.  
 

You stay classy Russia!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 21:20 | 7008248 monk27
monk27's picture

To conclude, you're an idiot ! Apart from that, there is no "celestial navigation" in a missile or a plane, just inertial navigation. That actually comes quite handy in  military hardware because in a real war your GPS system will be the first to be taken out by your enemy, so your fucking Garmin will be useless ! The rest of your rant it's just not worth anybody's time...

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 03:26 | 7003565 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Element

I am so thrilled when I get one of your ultra rookie replies.  Please don't ever stop.

You fail miserably when it comes to judging whether an adversary is underestimating, overestimating or right on the button when telling the press and other militaries of the world how many of a weapon system they have built and how many they have deployed.  The Ministers of Defense of Russia and China are going to have quite a giggle when they read your reply to me.

 I mentioned it here first as soon as that news appeared. 

That is so cute.  The Russians told Element exactly how many batteries were operational.

And sorry, S-300 or S-400 are not the miracle of the gods you imagine. 

Unlike the great and wonderful Element, I don't imagine anything about weapon systems I have never seen in operation and can only quote Fox News about.

the one in Syria is switched off, and only supporting radars (not part of the engagement system) are switched on.

How long does it take to switch one on, pal?  Do you have to crank it up like a model T?

within range of Turkish precision-guided heavy rocket artillery launchers and are about a minute from total obliteration at any given moment if there is any funny business there. 

The only funny business there or here is your comment.  I hope I'm not still laughing when I turn off the light.  I'll have to have some warm milk.

Russia claims it has sufficient electronics and decoy technology to thwart anything the terrible Turks throw up against their missile systems.  And an Iskander can put the Turks out of business in a jiffy.

Thanks for the yuks, dude.  Now if I can just dream about you getting a cream pie in the face ...

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 03:33 | 7003572 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

bid-the-soldier-shoot, I can't claim to understand your point. starting with "And an Iskander can put the Turks out of business in a jiffy"

Iskander missiles can be armed with conventional or nuclear warheads, making your statement very ambiguos. again, what's your point, besides the ad-homs?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 04:02 | 7003598 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

No wonder why people in west live in their alternate realities.Well your wannabe  military expert fanboy has been proved wrong several times but like a good ignorant fanboy he keeps peddling his diatribe. Is your tinfoil hat a Bicorn or just a wraparound sheet?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 05:12 | 7003633 conscious being
conscious being's picture

Fyi Max, the reason Element is so obnoxious is that he's a closet Zionist, Nutty Yahoo fanboy. Just so you know what you'rd dealing with.

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 07:27 | 7003828 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

well, he is providing arguments... and you are providing the peanuts from the peanut gallery, aren't you?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 16:22 | 7006633 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

G

out of business in a jiffy"

This is a figure of speech that means" quickly closing your doors and ceasing all operations."

You're right.  My statement was very ambigous.  I did not mean the entire Turkish nation would close its doors.  My bad.  I was referring to Element's declaration

 the one in Syria is within range of Turkish precision-guided heavy rocket artillery launchers and are about a minute from total obliteration at any given moment.

My point is what's destruction for the goose, is destruction for the gander, and that the Iskander can do moar damage to the Turkish weapons, than the Turkish weapons will do to the Russian's.  If the S-400 is all that it's cracked up to be.

Except for a contingent of Russia rocket deniers here at ZH, most acknowledge the superiority of Russian rocket design. 

Wishing you a nice day

bid

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 03:43 | 7003580 Element
Element's picture

 

 

"... when it comes to judging ... [blah-de-blah-blah] ... "

No, I didn't 'judge' anything, this is what I wrote:

"Last I checked (a few month ago) there were claims Russia had 8 S400 complexes in operational service ..."

"claims" i.e. claims that were not mine, that were Russian claims, as I don't know if they're true or not, how could I know? They lie so much, so I reported their claim, as a claim.  :D

FYI, the rocket artillery can reach deep into Syria, every bit of gear on that runway can be scraped in a few minutes.

Have a nice day.

 

Noob!  :D

 

darn ... knew it'd upset you again if I told you the truth ... lol   ;D

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 15:56 | 7006483 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Bubala

"I reported their claim, as a claim.  :D"

And after you reported that claim by another source, you went on to say:

I know, because I mentioned it here first as soon as that news appeared. So no, the probably do not have one, and if they do they would not be putting it on those islands to every EW/ELINT/SIGINT/COMINT sensor aircraft and ship in the entire Western Pacific can listen to and record in detail every little electronic fart it makes, to figure the best ways to kill it, the fastest.

So it might not be your claim initially, Element, but it is certainly a claim you have taken to your warm and generous bosom.

I'll be keeping an eye on all of your claims in the hereafter, bubala.  :o)

your pal

bid

btw

the rocket artillery can reach deep into Syria, 

Iskanders can reach all the way to Ben Gurion airport not to mention Incirlik, where a lot moar expensive stuff is parked on the runways.

:o)


Wed, 01/06/2016 - 19:24 | 7007597 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Gee, a little touchy about glorious S400 turns out to be sitting duck, and mental figment of allusions to grandeur, huh?

Here's reality kids.

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/ig8dqhdywhpvr7l10wtd.jpg

https://buy.garmin.com/en-US/US/on-the-trail/gpsmap-64st/prod140024.html

 What a cautionary tale Russia is, the national descent into madness and denial.  hahaha!

 

You stay classy Russia!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 20:09 | 7007820 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Do you mind if I refer to you by your other name?

kishke for brains

instead of the two worthless links you posted, why don't you find a link showing that the S-400 is, was, or will be

A SITTING DUCK.

 You can't, can you.

WISHING DOESN'T MAKE IT SO.

 

have a sweet day, sweetheart.  :o) 


Tue, 01/05/2016 - 21:26 | 7002799 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

is it worth going to war over?

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