Wall Street's Biggest Permabull Just Slashed His Q4 GDP Forecast To 0.5%, Says "It May Be Too High"
Everyone knows the world's foremost Wall Street meteorologist, and sometime Deutsche Bank economist, Joe LaVorgna.
For those who are unfamiliar, Joe is the person who in 2014 blamed every. single. negative. data point on the weather.
Joe is also the economist who famously lost a forecasting face-off with Groundhog Phil.
But most notably, Joe is Wall Street's biggest permabull.
Or was.
Because when we read that said LaVorgna was slashing his Q4 GDP forecast from 1.5% to 0.5% and warning that "this still might be too high in light of what could be much larger inventory liquidation than what we have assumed" (an inventory liquidation this website has warned about since last summer), we had to do a double take: no weather excuses, no pleadings for more QE or NIRP, no pulling the "decoupling" card, no seasonal this or that, just the facts. Surely something either truly horrible is coming if even Wall Street's biggest permabulls are throwing in the towel. That... or the depression is about to end.
From Deutsche Bank's Joe Lavorgna:
We have reduced our estimate of Q4 real GDP growth by one full percentage point to 0.5%, and this still might be too high in light of what could be much larger inventory liquidation than what we have assumed. We discuss this in more detail below.
The downward adjustment to Q4 2015 has the effect of lowering our projected Q4-over-Q4 rate of real GDP growth by 30 basis points (bps) to 1.7%. Some of the expected Q4 GDP softness may carry over into the current quarter. Therefore we have trimmed our current-quarter growth projection by 50 bps to 1.5%. The 2016 forecast changes end here, as we are keeping our estimates intact for Q2, Q3 and Q4 growth at 2.2%, 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively. If we are wrong, growth is likely to be weaker. Why are we making these changes?
Data released over the last couple of weeks (i.e., durable goods orders, advance international trade, construction spending and the manufacturing ISM) have been softer than expected. Most of this adjustment is due to less stockpiling. As we can see in the chart below, there is a high correlation between the change in private inventories and the inventory component of the manufacturing ISM—it is nearly 0.8. Last quarter, ISM inventories fell to a reading of 44.3 from 48.8, the lowest level since Q4 2009, when inventory liquidation totaled nearly -$50 billion. Thus, inventories could be lower than what we have predicted, possibly taking GDP temporarily into negative territory. We have decided to be a bit more conservative by assuming there is some residual inventory liquidation to occur this quarter. If it turns out that Q4 2015 stockpiles are even lower, then this could boost Q1 2016 real GDP at the margin. Still, the Q3 momentum of domestic demand appears to have stalled last quarter, and tighter financial conditions could weigh on spending this quarter. Hence, we believe it is prudent to make a modest downward adjustment to our Q1 2016 GDP forecast. We hope our changes stop here. Whether they do will depend in large part on the price action in the financial markets. In particular, growth prospects for this year will depend on whether the stock and credit markets can find footing and the appreciation of the dollar can abate. In the short term, the labor market are likely to remain constructive, which means Fed commentary on the economy should continue to sound relatively upbeat as policymakers gear up for another 25-bp rate hike this quarter. Stay tuned.
Surely something wicked this way comes if even the most stalwart bulls are starting to mutate into white, cuddly bears.
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And they will be showing a special presetation of "The Big Short" on his forehead...
Joe, Joe, Joe...it's not too late, even though everyone knows what a putz you are, you can still make something of your life...learn a trade, make something, hell...a new career as a barista would be a step up for you and remove the permanent SHILL attached to your persona...
Joe makes Peyton Manning look normal.
Does this mean that shits getting real? I will believe it when I see HOUSING prices drop. Until then its party on!!
<--Beavis
<--Butthead
looks more like
LOL Hey Joe!, 1989 called and it wants it's portrait shooter back!
Joe should get together with Lenny Dykstra
Yeah, his head looks like something out of a WB7 cartoon.
That's what I was was thinking. Does he have his hair like that on purpose or are we looking at a new species here? Is this how they identify each other? Where is a phrenologist when you need one? Guess all the bad weather prevented him from getting a haircut as well.
Hes appeared on the Simpsons as that frizzy haired kid.
I wish I was black at least they get shit done. I am embarrassed to be white. Obama showed us whites how it's done. We will bow down.
Old Joey 5 head aka "crazy" Joe LaVorgna
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5I6CGBNODaY
IMAX Joe.
Which one is the ground hog?
He is 5'9"; 6'1" with the hair.
Cranius Maximus
Megamind jr.
Skull Island of legend is soon confirmed discovery.
I'll eat a frog's eyeball if the corrupt Oblameo allows a zero GDP number. I'll take the over by 1 point.
Haha, Joe LaTuna is pulling his long lines in...
"LaVorgna".....is that italian for jooseinfeltgreaseball?
A douchbag economist working for Douche Bank. Awesome.
This guy looks like he never talks to a woman without entering his credit card first...
Leave young Joe alone....as you may have noticed he is actually only 12 years old but suffers from Methuselah syndrome
AND ITS OFFICIAL LOLOLOLOLOL AT "MARKET MAKER":
Virtu replaces KCG as NYSE market maker for JPMorgan, WSJ reports
JP Morgan (JPM), which fired KCG Holdings (KCG) as its market maker on the New York Stock Exchange in part due to poor performance during the Aug. 24 market volatility, has selected Virtu Financial (VIRT) as its replacement, reported The Wall Street Journal, citing a notice issued by the exchange.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/j-p-morgan-fires-kcg-holdings-as-its-nyse-ma...
Yet somehow he will spin this as bullish....
If you see how people react on all of this, it's 2007 allover again.
So let's assume we've got about 6 to 9 months before we're in a serious shitstorm while we slowely glide down that the moment.
Better start boosting the preperations, get cash out get assets locked down, and be silent to everybody you know that you're preparing. And when banks fail now, make sure you're yelling in the victims crowd.
He makes his forecast based on how frizzy his hair gets.....He just started this site from his predictions. http://hairforecast.com
"Have you been outside today? It's freezing! Who shops in the bitter cold?!"
"What's that? This is Q4 data?"
"Well, did you see how warm it was in December, people were outside enjoying the weather not shopping at the mall!"
Another lost Jew that put a screwdriver into a wall socket. On a unrelated event. Thank Bill Still and his gang to dig up this rare interview with Trump. He has become a high speed train. Bravo Donald.
Still Report #497 - Trump Predicted a Crash 25 Years Ago
Joe L. -> a cocaine hero.
Ever notice how many of these Wall Street clowns look like fags? Ackman is another one and Dimon.
And his wife...knowing this, suffers the embarassment of being seen in public with him, knowing that she gets unlimited all expense paid trips to the shoe store. THAT would be a miserable life. fake orgasms, and new shoes...
"The Gimp" saw Joe's picture and said that Joe looked like a guy that would get his ass kicked in a bar, a schoolyard, in prison and a sewing circle.
Poor Joe just has that kind of mug.
Word of advice Joe.
Stay inside with your Star Wars toys, Olsen twin porn and your KY gel.
Bad people are outside.
People?!?! It could rain, be cold and or too hot virtually anywhere on the planet!
Oh my... That was FUNNY!
why do they get to adjust their 'predictions' after the time period has ended?? last chance to adjust one's full year gdp guess should be at the halfway mark. same with earnings, then we'll see who has any skill (or clue)
he's on the list for the firing squad, after his years of whorish cheerleading
fucking POS, he's almost as bad as the kikes who give him his marching orders - someone needs to find him it can't be that hard?
If Joe's getting scared, must be a good time to get long.
Lets just call him Chia-Joe.
You know how you can look at someone and just know he got his ass beat every other day in high school? Well, I guess he gets the last laugh.... probaboy makes more $ than most on this site.
Those are hairplugs, aren't they?
Im sure he's a howl, with 4 or 5 vodkas in him. Until he starts crying like Obamy.