ADP Payrolls Soar To Highest Since 2014, Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Great news right? For those hoping for some "bad news is good news to slow The Fed down" data, ADP is a disappointment. The December monthly change was a rise of 257k - hugely better than the expected 198k and th ebiggest rise since December 2014. Most importantly the goods-producing sector added a shocking 23,000 jobs - despite every single manufacturing indicator deep in recession. Service-sector jobs added 234k.

Best jobs gains in a year (does that sound right?)

 

The details from the report:

Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 95,000 jobs in December, up from November’s downwardly revised 72,000. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 65,000 jobs, up about 10 percent from last month. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – came in at 97,000 an increase from the upwardly revised 80,000 jobs added in November. Companies with 500-999 added 39,000 jobs, while companies with over 1,000 employees gained 58,000 jobs.

Goods-producing employment rose by 23,000 jobs in December, well up from a downwardly revised -2,000 the previous month. The construction industry added 24,000 jobs, which was roughly in line with the 21,000 average monthly jobs gained for the year. Meanwhile, manufacturing stayed in positive territory for the second straight month adding 2,000 jobs.

Service-providing employment rose by 234,000 jobs in December, up from an upwardly revised 213,000 in November. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 66,000 jobs, the largest increase in this sector in 2015. Trade/transportation/utilities grew by 38,000, off a bit from an upwardly revised 41,000 the previous month. The 13,000 new jobs added in
financial activities were right in line with the average for the year.

And ADP's commentary...
"2015 had a strong close with December showing the largest job gains of the year,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, VP and head of the ADP Research Institute. “Overall, the average monthly employment growth was just under 200,000 for the year in contrast to almost 240,000 jobs per month in 2014. Weakness in the energy and manufacturing sectors was mostly responsible for the drop off.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Strong job growth shows no signs of abating. The only industry shedding jobs is energy. If this pace of job growth is sustained, which seems likely, the economy will be back to full employment by mid-year. This is a significant achievement, given that the last time the economy was at full employment was nearly a decade ago.”
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
 
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
 
And, as usual, here is the biggest "value added" from ADP: the pretty infographic:

<br />
       ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 257,000 Jobs in December<br />
     http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2015/December/NER/images/infographic/..." width="598" />

 

Charts: Bloomberg

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (4 votes)
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:26 | 7003984 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

23,000 goods producing jobs - mostly making guns!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:28 | 7003996 JD59
JD59's picture

And ammo. My two favorite items to buy.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:30 | 7003998 Looney
Looney's picture

... Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year"

Yeap! As soon as those 230 people to run background checks are hired, we will have reached "Full Employment”!  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:31 | 7004010 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Laugh Track Deafening

We have entered a "new dimension of Kabuki" at this point.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:32 | 7004016 Looney
Looney's picture

Kabuki… Bukake… Karaoke… I always get those three confused!  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:37 | 7004036 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Now everyone knows that the only way to get the Fed to restart the magic money machine is the S&P dropping to 1400, quickly.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:03 | 7004794 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Now everyone knows that the only way to get the Fed to restart the magic money machine is the S&P dropping to 1400, quickly."

Well, that had better happen quickly then - you know, before we return to "full employment" in mid-year!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:00 | 7004162 doctor10
doctor10's picture

those clowns in DC and NYC continue to talk to one another-on our dime!!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:11 | 7004219 Lumberjack
Lumberjack's picture

Nix talk add party.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:44 | 7005105 gm_general
gm_general's picture

The Amazing Zandi!! Perhaps he meant fool employment?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:10 | 7004209 stumbLebum
stumbLebum's picture

When the numbers are good, it's a grand conspiracy. When they're bad, "we told you so."

Logic/reason has no place in a Zero Hedge article.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:27 | 7003988 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

would you like fries with that Mr. Zandi?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:29 | 7004002 JD59
JD59's picture

He likes commie lies with his fries.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:45 | 7004074 stumbLebum
stumbLebum's picture

The ADP numbers are good because the economy's well on its way to recovery. There - I connected the dots for you imbeciles.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:29 | 7004004 apocalypticbrother
apocalypticbrother's picture

Wow. Who knew things had improved so hugely? Obama says "Mission Accomplished"!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:38 | 7004037 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

ELECTIONS people.

 

look at the numbers.....WEAK 2015 numbers will make fantastic numbers for summer/fall 2016.  

jobs were pushed from those 2015 months to the first report after the election month of November. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:30 | 7004005 gmak
gmak's picture

viz Zandi:  Of course he does.  Half making nail guns, and then the rest of the great unwashed being suicided with them.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:30 | 7004006 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Oh goodie the service (servant) sector is booming. Years ago as a dumb teenager, I instinctively knew that a growing serice sector that eclipses all other areas is not a good thing for an economy.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:30 | 7004007 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!  in the land of milk and honey....

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:36 | 7004029 yellensNIRPles
yellensNIRPles's picture

Let's just focus on the fact that this is great news. Yes, great news indeed. Everything is fine. You're getting sleeeepy. Veeeeery sleeeeepy little sheep. Shhhhhh. Yes, that's right just rest your little head and don't worry about a thing.

Your wallet is still on the night stand, right?

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:37 | 7004032 divingengineer
divingengineer's picture

They're fucking high.

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:37 | 7004034 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

if I close my eyes I see the best year ever for jobs and why auto sales hit new records in 2015..but but when I open my eyes I see empty business bldgs, dirty streets filled with homeless - best I keep my eyes closed.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:38 | 7004038 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Hard to believe any of these reports they are all contardictory and being used to manipualted the HFT equity markets.  This will not end well!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:42 | 7004061 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

your a comic right? "This will not end well!"

this is the end just nobody told you..now take your pill remain calm and eat your peas.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:46 | 7004050 Lady Jessica
Lady Jessica's picture

"Empress Hitlery the Great is coming!  Stop grovelling serfs and smile!"

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:41 | 7004056 JamaicaJim
JamaicaJim's picture

LOVE (despise) the phrase "full employment"

Jesus H. Christmas Fucking Christ - WHAT A FUCKING LIE

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:47 | 7004071 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Lots of jobs required in the gun confiscation department..

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:54 | 7004118 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

We will have "full employment" ...

(once they get done murdering or imprisoning enough of us)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXgKAcSb7PI

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:57 | 7004141 eeaton
eeaton's picture

How many of these "new jobs" are really people who were working as an independent contractor and now forced to be an employee by the state's DOL?

I see alot of this going on in NY with small businesses.  

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:19 | 7004270 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

New York state is where I live (upstate, close to the big lake, so I can take my PMs out for boating trips (they love to go diving, but, oddly, they never come back) and/or escape to Canada (not really a good option).

New York is a microagression of the federal government, where we have our very own dictator in emporor Cum-oh! The guy is such a squeamish little putz, I have no respect nor allegiance to him. The only reason I pay my property taxes is to keep the authorities the fuck away from me. Otherwise, get the fuck off my lawn!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:58 | 7004147 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture
Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year

 

What about the 95,000,000 people who are out of the work force?  The propoganda is so goddamn disturbing, I cannot stand this bullshit anymore!  So full employment of 2/3rds of the people is wonderful news , ..right?  

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:10 | 7004173 kill switch
kill switch's picture

 

so let's see,,

93,000,000 job seekers will be working in manufacturing jobs by June?

15,500,000 a month will be hired?

Most HR people will tell you that 4% unemployment is full employment. We are now at 5% really at 23%....This Zandi guy has a real fucking problem with numbers.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:03 | 7004179 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Those are just the ones he counts

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:03 | 7004183 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

Obviously Obama is beginning to collect weapons BECAUSE the economy is doing so well ...

(that must be obvious to you)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlVmdGiAH2A

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:10 | 7004214 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Retail hires for Christmas - selling crap that no one wants in stores that no one is going to anymore.

 

 

FUCK YOU ADP YOU FUCKING LIARS!!!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:12 | 7004217 PhiBetaZappa
PhiBetaZappa's picture

Glorious news comrade Zandi.

The Ministries of Truth and Plenty salute you.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:13 | 7004232 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

I would love to know how ADP comes up with these figures. Whatever advanced mathematics they are using is somehow in direct contradiction to reality.

There is absolutely now way these numbers can be believed. They are a complete and total fabrication, even worse than what will be served up by the corrupt BLS on Friday, if that's possible.

Somehow, I just don't see the economy improving so dramatically as these surveys portend (pretend).

Have I lost my mind or are we very, very close to THE END? I trust naothing anymore except wwhat I can hold in my own hands or verify with my own senses. I suggest that we're headed for a complete collapse of everything, from economics to social normative behavior (that's already largely out the window).

Can't wait for the next time somebody tells me I can't do something on my own land. My question will be, on whose authority?

The answer is that there is no authority anymore. Run free, my friends, our time has arrived.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:31 | 7004326 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

Probably using Common Core math.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:18 | 7004263 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

Somebody is smoking some serious Dope..

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:23 | 7004291 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Janet Yellen's jibber jabbering about inflation and the "return of the economy to full employment" resulted in some sort of reality glitch.  She stares at her speech, she can't make any sense of the words, the words, the words...they are so nonsensical she begins to choke and cough and sputter and halt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOiHn2LLmgM

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:33 | 7004337 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

Next month, ZH reporting on hospitality industry job gains.  Maybe they'll do the usual pat-on-the-back practice of posting their early-2015 articles harping the same story.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:10 | 7004865 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Next month, ZH reporting on hospitality industry job gains."

So, you're predicting great occupancy rates at lodging providers due to housing (carefully vetted) Syrian immigrants?  Should we jump in and buy hospitality stocks while they're on sale today, or just rotate into REIT's and hope the sell/leaseback model works?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:34 | 7004347 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

How Mark Zandi is paid for the crap he produces is completely beyond my pay grade.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:52 | 7004439 Secret Weapon
Secret Weapon's picture

Wonder what the NSA has on him?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:11 | 7004870 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Wonder what the NSA has on him?"

He likes to double post!  Wastes their resources, I hear.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 10:07 | 7004512 Secret Weapon
Secret Weapon's picture

Wonder what the NSA has on him?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:11 | 7004871 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Wonder what the NSA has on him?"

He likes to double post!  Wastes their resources, I hear.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!