Dear Mark Zandi... Please Explain This

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If Mark Zandi and his "whatever it takes" seasonal-adjusters at ADP are to be believed, the US manufacturing sector added the most jobs in 11 months in December. Our question is simple - with ISM Manufacturing Employment at post-recession lows and US Manufacturing PMIs at post-recesssion lows, and inventories-to-sales ratios at post-recession highs, why are goods-producers hiring at such a frantic pace?

 

 

 

Double-Seasonal-adjustment?

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Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:38 | 7004040 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

What is a Mark Zandi? Is it like a tattoo?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:42 | 7004058 Looney
Looney's picture

What happens AFTER we’ve reached “Full Employment”?

Are we gonna aim higher, for “110% employment”?  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:00 | 7004163 philipat
philipat's picture

You mean you want common sense?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:14 | 7004240 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Nobody seriously follows the ADP numbers; everyone knows they're rubbish...

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:40 | 7004369 philipat
philipat's picture

And, of course, Zandi is so far up Obummer's ass he must be up there with Reggie and also must have a problem knowing what to do with Hills and Huma? All of this is part of the End Game isn't it? Where the propoganda is so far "In your face" that they really don't care any longer. It's just a matter of keeping it from collapsing for a few more days/weeks/months....?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:57 | 7004472 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Without the mandates of massive government regulation and arbitrary benefit and tax complexity, ADP would be unncessary.

Of course they're gonna pimp for their meal ticket.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 10:38 | 7004642 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Let's see, December holiday hiring, even if you get one check for 1 hour you were counted. So Once these are seasonally adjusted down the estimate of 197k is about right.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:29 | 7004987 Jtrillian
Jtrillian's picture

Jobs numbers are a lagging indicator.  The economy will truly overheat as a recession hits.  We've been seeing this with inventory builds in the face of dropping sales and higher manufacturing output. 

Also keep in mind that jobs numbers are, like other government numbers, highly subjective and often revised.  They can, and often do, go back and revise jobs numbers several months after the fact. 

If you are truly paying attention, you'll know when the next recession hits.  Transportation index and subprime markets have been giving us the warning since early last year.  Wholesale inventories followed soon after. 

We live in a 24 hour news cycle so it's hard for people who lack patience to see this play out.  Markets operate on a much slower cycle.  But when things really get going, they have a habit of sinking rather quickly. 

What we are seeing so far this year is a very worrisome sign for the perma-bulls or the BTFD'rs so to speak.  These folks are playing a dangerous game at this time. 

The leading indicators - those which focus on wholesale manufacturing, transportation (like the Baltic Dry Index), and inventories have all been flashing red for some time.  Retail sales have also been warning of an economic decline.  People would be best served to take note of these.  Also keep in mind that one bad print doesn't really mean squat.  It's a series of prints across a number of leading sectors that should force one to take note and adjust accordingly. 

The market has a terrible bullish bias.  This is not hard to understand when so many of the talking heads on CNBC and Marketwatch paychecks depend on such optomism.  No one likes a party pooper.  Most people would rather lose money than be bearish.  Not sure why this is the case.  To be a successful investor, you are best served if you abandon your optimism and your pessimism and become a REALIST.

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:51 | 7005525 1033eruth
1033eruth's picture

Bullshit - algorithms follow ADP numbers, and that's all that matters.

How many times have ZH readers asked, "when is it going to collapse?"  The lies are just as important at maintaining "consumer confidence" as printing money out of thin air.   

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:07 | 7004197 American Psycho
American Psycho's picture

Hyper-employment?  Yes, that is always the goal.  Now excuse me while I continue my job creation plan of breaking store windows. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:44 | 7004396 Looney
Looney's picture

I hear that North Korea’s Little Dude has tested a device for breaking windows. A lot of windows! ;-)

Looney

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:19 | 7004273 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Full employment is 33.3% of the people working three jobs.

110% employment is 27.5% of the people working four jobs.

So yeah, probably.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:42 | 7004063 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I believe it's a corn-fed hemp plant.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:56 | 7004460 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Even the ethanol lobby isn't helping corn these days.

http://tinyurl.com/hmhgp5v

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:46 | 7004078 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Euthanize Zandi

Enemy Propagandist

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:46 | 7004079 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Sounds like a stinky fragrance.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:50 | 7004099 unplugged
unplugged's picture

isn't that the machine that grooms the ice on a hockey rink ?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:55 | 7004128 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Pay no attention to the data behind the curtain.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:06 | 7004190 stumbLebum
stumbLebum's picture

Zandi mostly gets this stuff right, whereas ZH mostly gets it wrong.

How many more "The Dollar Collapses in 2016!" articles are we gonna have to read?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:16 | 7004252 MSimon
MSimon's picture

How many more "The Dollar Collapses in 2016!" articles are we gonna have to read?

 

LOTS!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:07 | 7004198 Takeaction2
Takeaction2's picture

Easily explained...A colorful pixelation displayed on a monitor with gorgeous colors of blues, greens and reds with numeric symbols placed in formation to stimulate your vision in hopes of an emotional realization of something......beyond that....it is a mystery.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:13 | 7004221 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

A MarkZandi (Zandi delusion), or the delusion of Fantasia, is a rare disorder in which a person holds a delusional belief that the economy is actually better than it really is. The syndrome may be related to a brain lesion and is often accompanied by erectile disfunction.  Many Obama cabinet members and Federal Reserve Board members have been diagnosed with this illness.  There is no known cure. 


Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:38 | 7004042 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

double seasonal bullshit

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:39 | 7004046 miker
miker's picture

They had to have a good number to keep stawks up.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:49 | 7004097 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Artificial Intelligence is currently not an attribute of today's microprocessors.

 

Thus the Algos cannot discern lies or are able to reject conflicting information.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:37 | 7004359 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

"They had to have a good number to keep stawks up."

Apparently, it wasn't good enough. Please alert the CNBC crew to display, ADP Correction: December Jobs up 2.4 million.

And make it flashy!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:40 | 7004051 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Easily explained.

Zandi is a market-maker for side bets on how much a 272K print will move the open.  Which is the purpose of ADP.

Next question.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:41 | 7004052 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

We are going to need a bigger liar.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:42 | 7004057 Cautiously Pess...
Cautiously Pessimistic's picture

Hey Tylers.  Mr. Zandi's secretary just called and said that he is out sick for the rest of the day and regretfully cannot respond to your photoshopped graphs at this time. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:15 | 7004246 Takeaction2
Takeaction2's picture

Chipotle??

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:47 | 7004414 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Hold the Salmonella sauce, please.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:43 | 7004065 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Lick my salty nut sac!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:48 | 7004093 unplugged
unplugged's picture

only complete idiots entertain the idea that reports like this are true - which means 90% of Americans believe this shit

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:51 | 7004107 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

your behind the times, 96% now!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:06 | 7004827 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

For a proxy of how many Americans believe this stuff, you can use the amount Americans have lost in the value of their dollar since 1913: 95+%

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 11:13 | 7004884 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

Yea, but I love those old real dollars.. Indian's and St Gauden's ...

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:54 | 7004120 youngman
youngman's picture

They hired all those BLS Construction numbers guys...just fake it

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:56 | 7004133 Element
Element's picture

QE5?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:56 | 7004137 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Around my area in Kansas, most manufacturers are very busy.

I know a supervisor that works at one and they are constantly hiring.  He claims they've gone up to 3 weeks without getting a single application.  In this mfg park there are hiring signs in front of many of the plants and they have ads on the net..  These are mostly $10hr-$12hr entry level jobs with overtime.  So not bad considering many don't need experience.  Problem is many people that work at these places have several kids, child support, trying to raise a family etc then cry because they don't pay enough.  If you're gona have kids and your skillset only pays ten bucks an hour you're just gonna be poor that's all there is to it. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:01 | 7004158 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Also, many of these places claim to be busier than they've ever been and the work orders keep piling up.  Beats the fk out of me, maybe there's some shit going on under the surface of all this who knows.  Maybe some of the bad numbers are from people refusing to take these jobs.  When they realize mcdonalds sucks to work at and have their lights shut off perhaps they will get smoked out of their hiding place.

Most of you should know by now i'm not a shill, lol.  Just reporting my local area, i'm sure it's not enough to predict how everyone else is doing.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:46 | 7004407 farragut
farragut's picture

Thx, rs. May I ask in which industry these plants operate (eg, petrochemical, textiles, food)?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 10:05 | 7004503 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

The one my friend works at builds garage doors, both res and com.   Another one builds fuel componets, for what i'm not sure.  The other plants i'm not sure but it would be good info to have.  Now, rather this is a backlog, or new orders are still rolling in at high rates I don't have that info.   This hiring phase has been the same for the past couple of years so I guess we'll see. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 10:43 | 7004665 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

Stats looks the same to me thru Nov. reporting for Kansas -

perhaps Chrystal Meth is still big in Kansas before a local  observation or Trolls at work

 

June
2015 July
2015 Aug
2015 Sept
2015 Oct
2015 Nov
2015

Total Nonfarm (3)

  1,404.5 1,399.4 1,399.3 1,408.0 1,408.5 (P) 1,405.9

12-month % change

0.9 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 (P) 0.5

Mining and Logging (3)

9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.7 (P) 9.6

12-month % change

-7.5 -7.6 -8.6 -8.7 -7.6 (P) -9.4

Construction (3)

63.4 63.8 64.3 64.5 65.5 (P) 64.0

12-month % change

5.8 6.3 8.1 9.0 10.6 (P) 7.0

Manufacturing (3)

161.7 161.0 160.2 160.9 161.3 (P) 161.8

12-month % change

-0.8 -0.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 (P) -0.1

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (3)

265.7 265.3 265.4 267.3 268.1 (P) 266.7

12-month % change

0.8 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.9 (P) 0.9
Wed, 01/06/2016 - 10:50 | 7004705 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Kansas' impact on the overall economy is miniscule.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 08:59 | 7004156 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

double seasonally adjusted common core

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:00 | 7004164 ILike2Watch
ILike2Watch's picture

It's the weather....

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:01 | 7004165 g speed
g speed's picture

the weather?  maybe--

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:11 | 7004218 Ragmar
Ragmar's picture

Zandi made the same mistake in the lead up to the last recession

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:21 | 7004283 Kefeer
Kefeer's picture

2 + 2 = 217k

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 09:25 | 7004298 cn13
cn13's picture

Mark Zandi is a paid shill.

He is a prostitute of his own personal integrity selling out  to the highest bidder.

Just like our politicians.

Please quit mentioning this whore.

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