A Mysterious Death Raises Questions In Russia
Courtesy of Stratfor
A Mysterious Death Raises Questions in Russia
Intrigues within the Kremlin reignited Monday after the chief of Russia's military intelligence service, Igor Sergun, died unexpectedly. Sergun was a relatively unknown figure who kept a very low profile over his 30-year career, despite the fact that his position at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces made him one of the most powerful figures in Russian security.
Sergun came to power in 2011, at a time when the GRU's position was under attack by the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Foreign Intelligence Service — both of which were attempting to gain control of, or at least influence in, intelligence operations in Russia's borderlands. Sergun was able to consolidate the GRU, fortifying the military intelligence service's position among the security groups.
Russia's various security services have long vied with one another for power. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin served in the FSB (known at the time as the KGB), he has not always let the agency have its way. Putin has tried to keep a balance among the various services — a difficult feat in a world of intrigue and espionage. That balance has been off for the past two years, mainly because of events in Ukraine. Moscow's failure to anticipate the overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and the installation of a pro-West government in Kiev in early 2014 largely fell on the FSB. The service reportedly was restructured by mid-2014, and the GRU gained more responsibility for intelligence inside Ukraine — a humiliation for the FSB. The GRU and FSB wrestled with each other during the remainder of 2014 and all of 2015 over control of ground intelligence in Ukraine. Evidence of the behind-the-scenes struggles could be seen in the turnover of pro-Russian separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine and in sporadic reports from Ukrainian intelligence.
However, the FSB's recent problems go beyond Ukraine. The security service has fought to maintain its position within Russia, particularly Chechnya, and to keep one of its most lucrative assets, Rosneft, afloat financially. The FSB's problems could be connected to Putin's mysterious disappearance in March 2015 and to the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov.
Recent developments provide few details about the current state of the power struggle. Four months ago, rumors circulated in Russian media that one of the GRU's biggest backers, Vladislav Surkov, lost the Ukraine portfolio once again. Surkov, alongside Sergun, had been instrumental in implementing Russia's so-called hybrid warfare strategy in eastern Ukraine and in coordinating the separatist leaders throughout the year. Over the weekend, a Ukrainian intelligence source claimed that the FSB was back in eastern Ukraine working with the separatist leaders. This would indicate a strengthening of the FSB's position.
Against this backdrop, the unexpected death of the head of one of the FSB's biggest rivals raises a number of questions. First is the circumstance of Sergun's death. The Russian government said he had a heart attack in Moscow on Jan. 4, but a Stratfor source heard a report that he died on New Year's Day in Lebanon. If the report that he died in Lebanon is true, it raises questions about what Sergun was doing in a country that is a hotbed for the world's intelligence services and why the Kremlin would cover up his death abroad.
A second question is whether Russian operations in Ukraine will change. Sergun was allegedly one of the designers of Russia's hybrid warfare strategy there, but the FSB could continue with the same strategy. It is also not clear whether the FSB and the Russian military would be able to continue coordinating in eastern Ukraine if the Russian military's intelligence unit weakens or splinters.
Moreover, there is the question of whether the GRU can remain unified under a new leader, particularly with other intelligence services vying for influence. Russian media have already started floating rumors of who will replace Sergun — a curious development, since he allegedly died just a day ago — and various Kremlin watchers have even suggested non-military candidates who have personal ties to Putin. If Putin promotes an ultra-loyalist over a military replacement, it could indicate that he is attempting to bring another security group more firmly under his control, adding another layer of protection for the president should the FSB or any other group grow more disgruntled.
In the months ahead, it will be important to see if or how the FSB takes advantage of the shake-up in the GRU brought about by Sergun's death. The state of the struggle among Russia's security services is of great concern to the Kremlin, which is nervous about the potential for growing unrest in the country ahead of parliamentary elections. It is one of the FSB's primary tasks to monitor and defuse such tensions, but the FSB has taken on many other roles as it has attempted to gain more power. Putin is likely also concerned about the power struggle in the lead-up to the next presidential election in 2018, particularly if he is seen as taking sides in the dispute. This fight for power within the Kremlin has the potential to be one of Russia's — and Putin's — more dangerous challenges in the years ahead.
- Login or register to post comments
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -



America should be poisoning and undermining all important Russian military figures in order to cast off the Putin administration. Putin's desire to reconstitute the Soviet Union is deeply destabilizing.
Just another dumb ass Ukie troll working for his daily potato and 59 degree heated 200 square foot shithole in Kiev.
By making provocatively stupid remarks, the moron thinks he will take us off subject.
So why did the Russian Military official die?
Could it be because he is:
-over 55?
-heavy drinker?
-heart attack/stroke due to stress and age?
-Obama sent him mental death rays powered by smoking Reggie's pole?
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
FACT: Every time someone dies in Russia, it is a mysterious event and caused by Putin personally.
FACT: It is a known fact that no journalists in Russia die of old age, natural causes, illness, car accidents, etc. They are all killed by Putin, personally.
[/sarc]
100 bankers die and it's just a coincidence... one older russion dies and it's a mystery and Russian conspiracy?
This just in:
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2016/01/cause-of-igor-serguns-death-reveale...
The doctors who conducted the autopsy on the body of General Sergun, who died on the 3rd of January in the Moscow region, made preliminary conclusions about the causes of his death. According to sources familiar with the situation, the doctors concluded that the body of 58-year-old man was overworked."One of the reasons for his death was fatigue: over-processing, not getting enough sleep were all accompanying signs and "symptoms," commented a source in medical circles.
However, as it became known to LifeNews, the official cause of death was called acute heart failure. (end of quote)
I certainly don't buy everything I read, but if this guy lost favor with his peers, they would have likely pensioned him off and sent him to other end of Russia. Even that piece of garbage Kodorkovsky, who certainly deserved a bullet in the head for killing russian politicians and threatening Putin, was pardoned by Putin after serving 10 years.
Thanks...Latina Lover
It's been cold in Moscow, and cold weather is known to cause heart attacks.
Interesting that Stratfor says the Russian government claimed Jan 4 while they reported Jan 1 but Castro 's Lover says it was Jan 3.
Sop now there's three possible death dates, not just two.
Ad you guys still think you've got the straight story from the GRU's own staff Mengele.
I told you a few days ago that Putin's disappearance was right when the powerful Uranus/Pluto square locked onto his Libra Sun. His life was in grave danger and he was opposed by powerful forces to not make any deals. (Libra)
The struggle was the powers that be vs those that want to break doors down.
I thought he was advised to lay as low as you can go for those few days, he did.
An autopsy of a secret policeman is going to be performed by a secret policeman doctor. What sort of result does one expect to see released for public consumption under the circumstances? You think this is the same sheet of paper sitting on Granmother Putin's desk? Hardy-har-har.
How naive does one have to be to swallow this report? Regardless of whether it is correct or not, it is one provided for public consumption and approved for release after having been presented to a higher authority for approval. Ain't that right, public consumptioner?
http://pravosudija.net/article/srochnaya-novost-v-kaire-popalis-dva-naem...
I read it on the November 7th
just translate it and think.Maybe Putin is in the same list
"One of the reasons for his death was fatigue: over-processing, not getting enough sleep were all accompanying signs and 'symptoms,'"
A never-happen condition in Washington and Pentagon. Of course, we should be very suspicious!
Thanks, LL
Once again, we're able to see STRATFOR make yet another Strategy, Intel, and Forecasting FAIL.
Fearmongering goes only so far - especially from Texas. Must be a slow newsday for Illegals and Birthers getting busted.
And sometimes it isn't. Just ask Bill Clinton.
Personally, I tend to question official narratives from any and all governments, not just from one select group of them.
But you go ahead and cover for the GRU, if you feel so inclined. Why is that any different from covering for the CIA or MI6 or the Gestapo?
They are all SECRET POLICEMEN. I'm not on the side of any nation's secret police and rejoice in the early demise of any one of them, whether it be from a life of gorging oneself on stolen delicacies or in internal power struggles. The world is better off with this guy being dead, dead, dead.
Away with them all and then they get to report in to their ultimate supervisor in the nether regions.
Geez, where's the Mossad love? Can't leave them out of a list like that, they will get jealous.
Hey, if utter inclusiveness is a requirement to reach you, no problem.
All readers, please add Mossad and every other secret police agency past or present to the illustrative list stated above.
Okay?
Fine, now put them in order starting with Mossad on top and GRU on the bottom, then I can give you +1
Latina Lover knows nothing about Russia.
Prostitutin and his intelligence services are total failure starting with catastrophic consequences of losing Ukraine and abandoning support for Ukraine's Russian population.
Presently, Prostitutin has only one goal in mind: stay alive following a progressive collapse of Russian economy.
PS
What are Putin goals in Syria after he pissed off both Assad and Iranians there?
OMG a sleeper troll.
CacaHeadma, What makes you think that 'losing' the Ukraine was catastrophic for Russia? Do you really believe that Russia didn't know that the USSA was planning a coup against Yanukovich? Perhaps the famous 'fuck the EU' calls by Nudelman might clue you in?
I have no proof but I suspect that Putin knew what was happening, and used the opportunity to re claim Crimea for Russia, knowing full well that this was the real prize sought by Amerika. Instead of the USSA hosting nuclear air craft carriers in Sevastopol, now Russia clearly controls the black Sea, and can easily target hostile powers such as Georgia and Turkey for further retribution. Moreover, Russia no longer has to subsidize the criminal classes of the Ukraine via cheap gas prices, while the EU/USSA must support the Kiev criminal government to the tune of 10's of billions of dollar per year. Who are the losers now?
Beirut hookers and blow.
BTW, Merry Christmas eve to those who celebrate it!
The most important that ... none of this is Stratfor's business.
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-january-6th-2016-by-scott/
You got to love the "we have no evidence but he probably died in Lebanon. What was he doing in Lebanon? Again, we have no proof, so feel free to speculate"
Hey Stumblebum (good choice of name), I agree completely.
Hell Yeah, Amerika should target all important military figures in Russia for assassination. (sarc/off)
What could possibly go wrong?
These trolls should be trained better...the poor writing and cookie cutter comments are too obvious.
Bet his potato is covered with spots, and he shares his apartment with 5 other trolls.
They probably pool their potatoes and make toilet vodka.
They also likely eat rotten rye bread, hence their LSD induced delusions.
I just had a conversation with a friend who recently returned from Kiev after visiting his Ukrainian 'Brides'. He told me that Kiev is the worst national capital shithole he has visited since Nairobi. The food is terrible, heat does not work, the roads are missing sewer covers due to drunks selling them for scrap metal, the police in their spiffy new uniforms keep demanding bribes... only the girls are worth seeing because they are all skinny from lack of food. He said that this is the most depressing major city he has ever visited in Europe.
Sorry but test is complete bullshit. I was in Kiev in the summer and although I only spent a day in the city my experience was quite opposite. The hotel was great and a bargain. The breakfast at the hotel was first class. That includes the food and its presentation.
The dinner at a restaurant was excellent as well.
The roads in Kiev are fine but I don't think they have heard of traffic lanes.
Driving there was like a free for all. 4 or more lanes of traffic without anything to mark them.
The police was one thing that made me laugh. Their patrol car is a fucking Toyota Prius!!!!!
If you take a good look at your and LL's posts, you'll realize that there might be a 6-7 Month GAP in the Time Frame of the Visits.
Lookie there, another potato troll meme. Two in a row.
Yes, folks, it's true. There is a hive mind in the world.
Its called a joke, and if it remains funny, and pisses off those it is directed at, why change it?
Accusing someone else of using cookie cutter troll tactics and then launching into your own exhibition of the same thing may not ring your bell as being worthy of ridicule.
There is an irony to it, and it just makes the joke funnier, TBH.
Speaking of cookie cutter troll comments, how's that potato meme working for y'all?
There are times I think a daily regimen of colonic irrigation would do you wonders...
Standard Disclaimer: No potato necessary.
Someone's been afflicted with Schmuckism. rather than get help he/she/it decides to share the affliction on ZH
I can't believe you wrote that crap. What country do you live in? It has to be the US. How many TV's in your house? Destabilizing my ass. Russia walked away from the Warsaw Pact, while the US and its NATO allies plan on world domination. I guess you agree. Nobody should have their own country and government, unless it's stamped "Approved By USA, right?" You might want to hit the books again, and study history. Not TV history, either. The first guy you should check out is Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov, one of those military guys people like you would want to "take out". If not for him, you and everyone you know probably wouldn't be around to write anything.
Nice try trolls. The negatives appeared before I even posted for one second. Fuck you and the goat you rode in on.
why does ZH post this zionist bullshit.... the guy had a heart attack from eating too much grease over his life
and the FSB is not the KGB.. what bullshit.. when I saw that I knew this was USA zionist crap.
Ignore this shit...
Many Zero Hedge readers regularly send Western Union care packages to Vlad, denominationed in dollars (he specifically asked you not send rubles).
If Putin ever needs potatoes, I'm sure he'll ask you stumbLebum.
The Russian government and all the groups they support get shipped physical gold. He didn't want the shitty US dollars.
I believe it is key here to understand the OP ..
Stratfor ..
Israeli intelligence front Stratfor
Do also consider this guy ..
Col. Eugene Khrushchev – Former Soviet/Russian Airborne commander, Afghanistan, Chief of Planning, Intelligence and Psychological Warfare, former First Secretary, Soviet and Russian Embassies, Kabul, Afghanistan, Director of Strategic Planning, Adamus Defense Group, Switzerland
Very close friend and working partner with this guy ..
Leo Wanta – Former National Director of Intelligence under President Reagan and Inspector General, Department of Defense
both very close friends and working partner with this guy ..
Mike Harris – Financial Editor, radio host, former GOP Campaign Finance Chairman and gubernatorial candidate for Arizona, Senior Vice President, Adamus Defense Group, Switzerland
Mike and I have about a 30 minute conversation back in July ..
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp
See mike and me.mp3
Last I heard from Mike (with Dr. Preston James present, also close friend an associate of Wanta) is that Col. Khruschev is now Maj, Gen. in the GRU. He had previously served as Putin's Drug Czar. Mike (who is both fluent in Russian and Ukrainian) is to soon meet Putin in person via Khruschev (Wanta knows Putin personally going back to his GRU days. Yes, Putin was never KGB nor a party member. Most in the GRU were not. Ask Wanta himself.) BTW, Gen. Khruschev is the grandson of Nikita. And while we are name dropping here, Wanta personally met with and gave Gorbachev $10 billion to step down as General Secretary and end the USSR officially. You are going to have to read the Wanta bio to get the full scoop here ..
http://eagleonetowanta.com/
One additional note. I do find particularly interesting (actually more amusing) that Joe Biden appears to be being buttered up in Nov. for coming events in early 2016 ..
http://eagleonetowanta.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Puppet-Masters-Des...
and,...nikita khrushchev's own son, sergei has been a citizen of the ussa since july/1999.
he first came to the ussa in 1991 when the ussr dissolved... surprise
yes/ no [?]
Ps. if this the same khrushchev your talking
So beautiful that this post is from "Stratfor" and not a Russian news agency?!!! And 2 days late to boot!!!!
Strator is just another Neocon mouthpiece, regurgitating USSA state department and Voice of Amerika talking points. These morons believe that repeating nonsense makes it real.
They claim, for example, that Russia will collapse and to Save the World (tm), the USSA will have to invade to secure the nuclear weapons. Any bets on how that prediction will work out?
http://www.unian.info/world/1090687-stratfors-predictions-in-business-in...
Fun fact: I once worked a short contract at Stratfor and security was surprisingly very lax.
These morons believe that repeating nonsense makes it real.
Yes LL, witnessed yet again as i watched CNBC at 7am this morning. Dan, the dick, Senor bloviating how Syria crossed the red line with a gas attack and Obama did nothing blah, blah blah. These douches are so intent on controlling the narrative regardless of truth.