A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Calls It "This Is Now A Fully-Fledged Bear Market"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just when you thought it was safe to go short...

Yesterday stock prices here in the States did little other than mark time, and following the material selling earlier this week the fact that the best that the market could do was this is ominous indeed. We used the term “bear market” yesterday in our commentary for the first time in a very, very long while and we used it with intent, for in the past we’ve often said that we had turned “neutral” of stocks noting that in a bull market the most bearish position one can have is neutral.

 

This stems from our simple, but effective, notion that in a bull market there are only three positions one can and should have: Aggressively long; modestly long or neutral. But this is no longer a bull market. This is now a fully-fledged bear market and we do not say that readily, nor lightly. Nonetheless, given that our International Index made its high late last May at 11,186 and is now 1,888 points or 16.9% below that level and has been down for just over seven months, it is time to face this harsh reality.

 

This is a bear market. Trend lines that have held in the past are  failing. Lower lows and lower highs are more and more common. Fewer and fewer stocks are trading within 2-5% of their highs and  more are trading 15-20% below those highs and the Advance/Decline lines here and abroad are collectively weak and weakening.

 

* * *

 

We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly… our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year. We shall, henceforth, look to err bearishly of equities, holding long positions in some equities, but erring on balance to the short side of the global equity market.

Just to put this "call" in context, this is what Gartman said on December 29, exactly one week ago, on CNBC:

"In the end the question will be, will crude be able to go below $35 per barrel? I think not."

Oil is now at $34.38.

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Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:23 | 7005341 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

It's a trap!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:24 | 7005349 Looney
Looney's picture

Dennis’ computer and his chair are connected by a NUT.  ;-)

Looney

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:25 | 7005357 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Close the shorts, time for a bounce.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:30 | 7005385 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

What if Gartman was right once?

Just once?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:35 | 7005418 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You mean like a space-time continuum anomaly type thing?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:44 | 7005474 NoVa
NoVa's picture

a broken clock is right twice a day ...

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:48 | 7005513 Jtrillian
Jtrillian's picture

If being wrong was a contest, this fool would have won first prize.  Don't let anyone tell you what to think.  Look at the data and make up your own mind.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:21 | 7005660 NoVa
NoVa's picture

I think Gartman chicken little is mostly right this time, but I do not trade with or against him.  Lots of bad data and black swan tail risks out there.

my trade is long SPXU and TLT.  Up > 8% so far in 2016. 

 

NoVa

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 15:15 | 7006216 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"I think Gartman chicken little is mostly right this time, but I do not trade with or against him. "

Fed could reverse course and begin QE again, sending stocks & bond prices back up. I think if the S&P falls below 1900, the Fed will start issuing more "Fedspeak" If that doesnt' work  and the S&P falls below 1800, then out comes the QE.

 

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:57 | 7005817 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

" Look at the data and make up your own mind."     So by saying this you still believe in fundamentals?

BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:49 | 7005517 upWising
upWising's picture

It's a 24-hour clock, with seconds shown.

That means Mr Gartman has a one-second window each 24 hours to say something coherent.

We are all still waiting.......

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:54 | 7005545 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

I did the "Gartman can't be right" trade a few months ago and got bit in the ass.  Gartman is not my compass, but the guy is certainly not 100% wrong, 100% of the time. I only had to get smacked in the face once to learn that lesson. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 14:36 | 7006003 zvzzt
zvzzt's picture

Sure fair enough not 100%, but still, his track record is extremely good (negatively correlated of course) and far, far outperforms any guy I know or heard of on the streets. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:32 | 7005713 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

What if Gartman was right once?

 

He'll be right just in time for the market to disintegrate......

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:26 | 7005361 3rdWorldTrillionaire
3rdWorldTrillionaire's picture

Gartman -- correct in 2016? Time to switch the narrative now that they conditioned everyone...

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:29 | 7005379 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Now that would be diabolical.  And weird.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:58 | 7005563 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Its no longer to be called a deadcat bounce, but let us start calling it the Shartman bounce.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:35 | 7005421 Wulfkind
Wulfkind's picture

Aaannd.....it begins

"S.O.S."  Calls for SAVE OUR SHALE industry bailouts

 

A number of things should be considered:

• Pay producers not to produce, but require them to keep their wells intact and ready to go, when prices invariably rise, just like we do to protect our farmers and agriculture industry.

• Provide other direct price supports for oil and gas producers for the proper capping of wells and laying down of rigs that preserves and ensures their future ability to return to service quickly.

• Provide loan guarantees to banks and other lenders, so that they can continue to fund the industry to help keep these strategically important businesses afloat.

• Amend the bankruptcy code to allow for expedited and special treatment of oil-producing assets, enabling them to be kept as whole as possible, so that their producing power and future potential is not lost for another generation.

• Give oil-patch workers enhanced unemployment benefits or temporary government jobs as caretakers of the oil fields, so that they do not lose their skill set and remain at-the-ready to fire up fallowed production.

• Enable the Interior or Energy Department to purchase parcels containing so-called drilled-but-uncompleted wells , so-called DUCs, which could act as a secondary Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/kilduff-time-for-an-oil-and-gas-industry-...

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:54 | 7005546 upWising
upWising's picture

You forgot about having the Agriculture Department offer a program for Landscapers to maintain fields of green shoots around these Relics of the Fracking Age.

You forgot about having the National Parks Service open regional Fracking Industry Historical Sites, so that future generations can wallow in our ignorance.  I imagine gift shops full of flasks of fracking residues, Commerative Home Water Filters, Warren Buffet Memorial Train Sets, etc. etc.

You forgot about having 8-lane Interstates constructed to the above so that The American People can admire their Tax Dollars At Work.  

PROGRESS AS PROMISED!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:14 | 7005635 FrankieGoesToHo...
FrankieGoesToHollywood's picture

Why not just fly a helicopter over the fields and drop bags of cash?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:24 | 7005675 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

welfare for banksters one more time with dress up the baby and extend unemployment compensation

 

nationalize the oil patch - let them eat cake!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:33 | 7005716 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Time to go long!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:25 | 7005353 herkomilchen
herkomilchen's picture

Shit.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:31 | 7005388 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Fuck!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 14:26 | 7005963 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Piss!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:26 | 7005358 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Going all in....., NOW!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:06 | 7005599 uncle_disgusting
uncle_disgusting's picture

Long?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:26 | 7005359 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Even Gartman has to be right once......  well doesnt he.......?  never mind.....

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:27 | 7005362 troubledasset
troubledasset's picture

Fewer and fewer. Lower and Lower. More and More.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:31 | 7005393 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Faster, faster pussycat, kill, kill!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:30 | 7005380 abyssinian
abyssinian's picture

D Gartman is a full retard since 2012. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:30 | 7005386 Deep_Out-of-the...
Deep_Out-of-the-Money's picture

Even a broken clock is right once a day.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:36 | 7005430 The Saint
The Saint's picture

That would be TWICE a day.  :-)

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 14:29 | 7005976 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Nope, once a day - 2 years active duty and 20 years a volunteer firefighter - I'm on a 24 hour clock, like any sensible person - fuck this am and pm shit. (Except, of course, when pm means precious metals.)

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:44 | 7005475 xrxs
xrxs's picture

What if that clock is digital? Answer: Gartman.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:30 | 7005387 Collapsed_Elast...
Collapsed_Elastic_Pants's picture

Tail chasing 101

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:31 | 7005390 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

Gartman is a Fed Chairwoman's best friend.  His bearish comments are stronger than promises of new QE.

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:32 | 7005397 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Who gives a fuck what he says?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:34 | 7005411 doggis
doggis's picture

THIS REMINDS ME OF THE "GOLDMAN SACHS" PLAY

 

GOLDMANS SACHS WILL "KILL" THE MUPPETS 99% OF THE TIME [IE, THEY WILL DO THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY RECOMMEND] BUT 1% OF THE TIME, THEY WILL TELL THE TRUTH - JUST TO KEEP ALL HONEST.

 

IS THIS THE "GARTMAN" HONEST MOMENT? HE IS BOUND TO HAVE "ONE"!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:34 | 7005415 I AM SULLY
I AM SULLY's picture

THIS IS A RECOVERY SUMMER MIRACLE IN JANUARY!

THANKS GARTMAN!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlVmdGiAH2A

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 14:32 | 7005984 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Great. Where in the hell did you get that clip, Sully?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:36 | 7005427 BeaverCream
BeaverCream's picture

"No seriously guys.... no i'm serious this time...come on I'm really really serious".

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:37 | 7005435 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Wolf!

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:39 | 7005442 Overleveraged_a...
Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

Gartman has to be right SOMETIMES i suppose

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:19 | 7005652 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

You would think. Can this guy possibly have a paying customer left? Would love to talk with him and find out why he subscribes/invests with the guy. Got to be contrarian thinking from what I've read here over last few years.

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:41 | 7005460 Peak Finance
Peak Finance's picture

Well I think it's going to flip and rise but not becuase of Gartmen

WEIRD fucking options moves, in both puts and calls, in highly traded stuff like SH for instance. Slightly OTM stuff going DOWN displite the market going DOWN as well.  This is telling me that insiders KNOW for sure the ramp is coming. They are going to do it Friday regardless of the unemployment data and going to spin it as a reaction to Fridays numbers. 

This shit seems more rigged every day, as impossible as that sounds. 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 12:46 | 7005493 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Time to load up on frackers

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:07 | 7005605 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

Very interesting to see folks who pumped the market like salesmen now doing the opposite. What's the game, I wonder?

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:10 | 7005614 amadeus39
amadeus39's picture

The question remains:Where will all the money go? Stock markets are still the only game in town. And yes, it was planned that way.

 

 

Wed, 01/06/2016 - 13:39 | 7005746 freakscene
freakscene's picture

fantasy football

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