A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Calls It "This Is Now A Fully-Fledged Bear Market"
Just when you thought it was safe to go short...
Yesterday stock prices here in the States did little other than mark time, and following the material selling earlier this week the fact that the best that the market could do was this is ominous indeed. We used the term “bear market” yesterday in our commentary for the first time in a very, very long while and we used it with intent, for in the past we’ve often said that we had turned “neutral” of stocks noting that in a bull market the most bearish position one can have is neutral.
This stems from our simple, but effective, notion that in a bull market there are only three positions one can and should have: Aggressively long; modestly long or neutral. But this is no longer a bull market. This is now a fully-fledged bear market and we do not say that readily, nor lightly. Nonetheless, given that our International Index made its high late last May at 11,186 and is now 1,888 points or 16.9% below that level and has been down for just over seven months, it is time to face this harsh reality.
This is a bear market. Trend lines that have held in the past are failing. Lower lows and lower highs are more and more common. Fewer and fewer stocks are trading within 2-5% of their highs and more are trading 15-20% below those highs and the Advance/Decline lines here and abroad are collectively weak and weakening.
* * *
We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly… our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year. We shall, henceforth, look to err bearishly of equities, holding long positions in some equities, but erring on balance to the short side of the global equity market.
Just to put this "call" in context, this is what Gartman said on December 29, exactly one week ago, on CNBC:
"In the end the question will be, will crude be able to go below $35 per barrel? I think not."
Oil is now at $34.38.
- Login or register to post comments
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -



It's a trap!
Dennis’ computer and his chair are connected by a NUT. ;-)
Looney
Close the shorts, time for a bounce.
What if Gartman was right once?
Just once?
You mean like a space-time continuum anomaly type thing?
a broken clock is right twice a day ...
If being wrong was a contest, this fool would have won first prize. Don't let anyone tell you what to think. Look at the data and make up your own mind.
I think Gartman chicken little is mostly right this time, but I do not trade with or against him. Lots of bad data and black swan tail risks out there.
my trade is long SPXU and TLT. Up > 8% so far in 2016.
NoVa
"I think Gartman chicken little is mostly right this time, but I do not trade with or against him. "
Fed could reverse course and begin QE again, sending stocks & bond prices back up. I think if the S&P falls below 1900, the Fed will start issuing more "Fedspeak" If that doesnt' work and the S&P falls below 1800, then out comes the QE.
" Look at the data and make up your own mind." So by saying this you still believe in fundamentals?
BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAA
It's a 24-hour clock, with seconds shown.
That means Mr Gartman has a one-second window each 24 hours to say something coherent.
We are all still waiting.......
I did the "Gartman can't be right" trade a few months ago and got bit in the ass. Gartman is not my compass, but the guy is certainly not 100% wrong, 100% of the time. I only had to get smacked in the face once to learn that lesson.
Sure fair enough not 100%, but still, his track record is extremely good (negatively correlated of course) and far, far outperforms any guy I know or heard of on the streets.
What if Gartman was right once?
He'll be right just in time for the market to disintegrate......
Gartman -- correct in 2016? Time to switch the narrative now that they conditioned everyone...
Now that would be diabolical. And weird.
Its no longer to be called a deadcat bounce, but let us start calling it the Shartman bounce.
Aaannd.....it begins
"S.O.S." Calls for SAVE OUR SHALE industry bailouts
A number of things should be considered:
• Pay producers not to produce, but require them to keep their wells intact and ready to go, when prices invariably rise, just like we do to protect our farmers and agriculture industry.
• Provide other direct price supports for oil and gas producers for the proper capping of wells and laying down of rigs that preserves and ensures their future ability to return to service quickly.
• Provide loan guarantees to banks and other lenders, so that they can continue to fund the industry to help keep these strategically important businesses afloat.
• Amend the bankruptcy code to allow for expedited and special treatment of oil-producing assets, enabling them to be kept as whole as possible, so that their producing power and future potential is not lost for another generation.
• Give oil-patch workers enhanced unemployment benefits or temporary government jobs as caretakers of the oil fields, so that they do not lose their skill set and remain at-the-ready to fire up fallowed production.
• Enable the Interior or Energy Department to purchase parcels containing so-called drilled-but-uncompleted wells , so-called DUCs, which could act as a secondary Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/kilduff-time-for-an-oil-and-gas-industry-...
You forgot about having the Agriculture Department offer a program for Landscapers to maintain fields of green shoots around these Relics of the Fracking Age.
You forgot about having the National Parks Service open regional Fracking Industry Historical Sites, so that future generations can wallow in our ignorance. I imagine gift shops full of flasks of fracking residues, Commerative Home Water Filters, Warren Buffet Memorial Train Sets, etc. etc.
You forgot about having 8-lane Interstates constructed to the above so that The American People can admire their Tax Dollars At Work.
PROGRESS AS PROMISED!
Why not just fly a helicopter over the fields and drop bags of cash?
welfare for banksters one more time with dress up the baby and extend unemployment compensation
nationalize the oil patch - let them eat cake!
Time to go long!
Shit.
Fuck!
Piss!
Going all in....., NOW!
Long?
Even Gartman has to be right once...... well doesnt he.......? never mind.....
Fewer and fewer. Lower and Lower. More and More.
Faster, faster pussycat, kill, kill!
D Gartman is a full retard since 2012.
Even a broken clock is right once a day.
That would be TWICE a day. :-)
Nope, once a day - 2 years active duty and 20 years a volunteer firefighter - I'm on a 24 hour clock, like any sensible person - fuck this am and pm shit. (Except, of course, when pm means precious metals.)
What if that clock is digital? Answer: Gartman.
Tail chasing 101
Gartman is a Fed Chairwoman's best friend. His bearish comments are stronger than promises of new QE.
Who gives a fuck what he says?
THIS REMINDS ME OF THE "GOLDMAN SACHS" PLAY
GOLDMANS SACHS WILL "KILL" THE MUPPETS 99% OF THE TIME [IE, THEY WILL DO THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT THEY RECOMMEND] BUT 1% OF THE TIME, THEY WILL TELL THE TRUTH - JUST TO KEEP ALL HONEST.
IS THIS THE "GARTMAN" HONEST MOMENT? HE IS BOUND TO HAVE "ONE"!
THIS IS A RECOVERY SUMMER MIRACLE IN JANUARY!
THANKS GARTMAN!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlVmdGiAH2A
Great. Where in the hell did you get that clip, Sully?
"No seriously guys.... no i'm serious this time...come on I'm really really serious".
Wolf!
Gartman has to be right SOMETIMES i suppose
You would think. Can this guy possibly have a paying customer left? Would love to talk with him and find out why he subscribes/invests with the guy. Got to be contrarian thinking from what I've read here over last few years.
Well I think it's going to flip and rise but not becuase of Gartmen
WEIRD fucking options moves, in both puts and calls, in highly traded stuff like SH for instance. Slightly OTM stuff going DOWN displite the market going DOWN as well. This is telling me that insiders KNOW for sure the ramp is coming. They are going to do it Friday regardless of the unemployment data and going to spin it as a reaction to Fridays numbers.
This shit seems more rigged every day, as impossible as that sounds.
Time to load up on frackers
Very interesting to see folks who pumped the market like salesmen now doing the opposite. What's the game, I wonder?
The question remains:Where will all the money go? Stock markets are still the only game in town. And yes, it was planned that way.
fantasy football