Copper Futures Crash Below $2 For First Time Since 2009

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Dr. Copper is sick. For the first time since May 2009, Copper futures prices traded with a $1 handle this morning ($1.99) as Nomura analysts warn the commodity is likely to see more downside risk over the medium term as the market is expected to remain in surplus through the end of the decade.

 

 

As Bloomberg adds, Nomura's Patrick Jones warns:

Copper demand could see 2m-3m mt/yr “demand destruction” led by substitution of the metal by using aluminum and other materials.

 

Expects substitution in autos, air conditioning, power distribution cabling rising over next several yrs

Despite RBC noting yesterday, copper price should now be reasonably well supported at $2.08/lb vs historic cost support at 90th percentile of cash cost curve (at $1.98/lb), though if market remains in surplus, further downside risk exists

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Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:56 | 7010665 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Dr. Copper unfortunately has a pretty good record of forcasting.

 

Expect no different this time.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:58 | 7010676 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

In February of 2015... SocGen report showed funds massively long oil when Brent wss over 40 and short copper. So question is, what is max pain? http://hedgeaccordingly.com/2015/02/hedge-funds-are-massively-long-gold-...

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:00 | 7010700 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

Insiders were warned and flipped.

 

Others, not so much.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:01 | 7010709 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's gotten so stealing the copper out of my neighbors' houses while they are away isn't even worth it any more.

 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:04 | 7010734 StackShinyStuff
StackShinyStuff's picture

I'll say it again for the cheap seats:  THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!!!  /s

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 11:08 | 7011109 mtndds
mtndds's picture

Maybe but it can all be just TRANSITORY.  Idiots at the FEDERAL RESERVE.  But also SOROS said that this is like 2008, didnt he?  

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:08 | 7010761 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

WTF? Get out of my head!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:15 | 7010795 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I wonder what the meth addicts will steal next?

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 12:20 | 7011667 boattrash
boattrash's picture

Well, if the banking industry were required to engrave their worthless financial instruments on sheet-copper it might help. The largest part of our GDP is worthless, destructive, fictional, financials.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:02 | 7010716 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture

 

 

Dr. Copper is going to need some help in OR.  

 

Blood is everywhere.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:57 | 7010672 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good. A second still is looking more and more affordable.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:58 | 7010687 OregonGrown
OregonGrown's picture

i bought a 20 gallon still for SHTF scenerio....... just in case the credit markets freeze up and i need to make my own!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:10 | 7010769 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, cheap commodities (corn and sugar) + cheap copper + cheap natural gas...

What the fuck else are you going to do?

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:16 | 7010808 Jethro
Jethro's picture

There is a learning curve associated with that. At least with small batch bourbon production. Not that I'd personally know anything about that...

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:12 | 7010778 duo
duo's picture

My A/C compressor is safe for another year.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:03 | 7010675 OregonGrown
OregonGrown's picture

Smoke em if you got em!  

 

Shit's getting real!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:06 | 7010749 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Yup, the Chinese "changed the rules" again. This will have the opposite effect. Folks will sell fucking everything in site lest they "change the rules" tomorrow.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:58 | 7010680 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Dr Copper, we hate to inform you that we need to call in hospice care for you...

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:58 | 7010684 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

Malinvestment WILL be unwound, one way or another.

 

Duck and cover.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:59 | 7010690 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

This is a copper-bottomed market.

Oops, no it isn't.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:59 | 7010692 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Dr copper is sick.

Obama, what a recovery! Keep on repeating to yourself libtrards, while bowing to your messiah. 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:02 | 7010717 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I have prayed for years that the next collapse would at least have the courtesy of happening on Obama's watch.  So I can say "Obama's fault" for the next 15 years.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:07 | 7010757 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm blaming it all on Bush.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:19 | 7010830 Jethro
Jethro's picture

The "Obama Depression" just has a nice ring to it. Or maybe, the "Mocha Depression". "Dindu Depression"? Yeah, I vote for the "Dindu Depression". "President Obama dindu that to the economy!"

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:00 | 7010703 NoPension
NoPension's picture

My buddy just called, asked " what's up?"

I said I was watching the market open, before getting out to work.

He laughed, and said " who cares?"

That's most of the USA.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:15 | 7010797 Mark Mywords
Mark Mywords's picture

We should have CNBC and Bloomberg and any other business news channel toss around footballs and dress in silly uniforms while delivering the financial news. That would attract the Average Idiot American.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:26 | 7010846 OregonGrown
OregonGrown's picture

CNBC and Bloomburg......LOL......I am just happy they arent wearing tutu's and assless chaps... with fucking glitter EVERYWHERE!

 

For that would definitely attract the ........ oh never mind!  

 

To borrow a quote i heard from someone on the teevee..... "At this point, what fucking difference does it make?"

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 11:19 | 7011195 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Ha! Like the newsies could throw a spiral.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:45 | 7010993 GhostOfDiogenes
GhostOfDiogenes's picture

"He laughed, and said " who cares?"

That's most of the usa"

So?

The markets are rigged, by rich jooz.

I guess its the goyims fault the jews lord so much power over them?

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 11:20 | 7011200 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

"I guess its the goyims fault the jews lord so much power over them?"

Yes it is.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:02 | 7010714 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Can we get him on Yellencare?  I mean, the Fed's balance sheet is in need of expansion and all.   Who cares who's responsible to pay the bill, just keep ordering table service.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:02 | 7010718 HenryHall
HenryHall's picture

I need to buy some ordinary copper pipe for my house today. Retail price is up, not down.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:07 | 7010755 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Yes, doesn't seem to have caught up to retail as gutters are still pretty damn expensive too....have to work off the expensive inventory and these companies aren't buying many replacements at the lower prices it would seem

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:44 | 7010981 GhostOfDiogenes
GhostOfDiogenes's picture

The guys who sell pipe don't sit by the teevee watching cramer brah.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:03 | 7010729 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's so bad that the dumpster divers don't bother messing with it any more.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:42 | 7010969 GhostOfDiogenes
GhostOfDiogenes's picture

That happened back in September, I thought.

But crack is crack, I guess.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:04 | 7010731 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

No worries, the DOW has already reversed half of the over 400 point loss from this mornings futures so it's all good...

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:17 | 7010812 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Plunge protection team in the US is working overtime this morning...amazing with the Chinese collars off what we could see tomorrow...-20% not out of the question...then who wants to be holding their BTFD purchases at the end of the day today?

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:37 | 7010942 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

china's stock market is massively overvalued vs slowing growth. Commodities are crashing as people come to this realization. It's a reblancing. What exactly does this change in the US? Sure it hurts commodity producers here but it's not 2008. 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:05 | 7010744 cleverusername
cleverusername's picture

but what does it all mean, Basil?

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:16 | 7010806 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

Huge volume spikedwn there...  Hmmm...  

Who was selling?

 

Glanore? Noble? both?

Watch em both.  and keep an eye on Mercuria and Vitol in the enrgy sector and

Castleton in the metls too.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:22 | 7010826 OregonGrown
OregonGrown's picture

IS THERE ANY WONDER WHY obama went after the guns in a MAJOR way last week!  

 

That rat bastard KNOWS things are precipitously getting worse!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:19 | 7010829 scintillator9
scintillator9's picture

That "over supply of ships" is getting over supply-er, with the Baltic Dry Index hitting another new low of 445

Odd how Investopedia never makes any mention of an over supply of ships, but does mention this as "a leading indicator of economic growth"

 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:22 | 7010842 moonmac
moonmac's picture

Now it will only cost our government 10 cents to make a penny.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:40 | 7010958 GhostOfDiogenes
GhostOfDiogenes's picture

Wow totally pointless post.

There aren't enough minerals on the planet for everyone to use pm's as currency.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 11:02 | 7011083 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not at their current valuation, no.

Let me guess, you are a banker.

No worries, such "let the majority eat cake" monetary experiments always turn out the same way.

The point is that NO ONE and NO GOVERNMENT should be able to simply create as many paper claims as they like on real good and services you stupid fuck.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 15:21 | 7012988 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"The point is that NO ONE and NO GOVERNMENT should be able to simply create as many paper claims as they like on real good and services you stupid fuck."

 

Now, now, let's be nice here.  You forget that the banker types never can differentiate between a monetary system based on promised labor (FRN's) versus one based on completed labor (bullion/PMs).

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:26 | 7010866 moonmac
moonmac's picture

I'm in the stainless steel business and Nurse Nickel just informed us our massive inventory has cancer.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:27 | 7010874 PrimalScream
PrimalScream's picture

copper is $2 per pound?  Are you kidding me?

Dr Copper is not just sick ... it needs to make out a Last Will and Testament !!!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 11:25 | 7011222 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Code blue: An emergency situation announced in a hospital or institution in which a patient is in cardiopulmonary arrest, requiring a team of providers (sometimes called a 'code team') to rush to the specific location and begin immediate resuscitative efforts.

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