Initial Jobless Claims Regime Shifts - Average Jumps To 6-Month Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The much-watched four-week average of initial jobless claims rose to 277k, accelerating to the highest levels since early July 2015. This "trend shift" began as rate-hike odds increased in October... just as we saw the trend shift after QE3 ended...

 

 

Continuing claims rose once again hovering at its highest in 4 months.

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Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:41 | 7010236 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

I told you the ADP numbers were rubbish...

 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:42 | 7010242 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

4% unemployment here we come.....YES WE CAN!!!!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:50 | 7010276 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I can't wait for negative unemployment!

( Hey, it's the BLSBS )

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:03 | 7010331 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Humans, flora, and fauna all fully employed Mr. President. You are a hero to the entire universe.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:32 | 7010901 Pew Pew Pew
Pew Pew Pew's picture

http://aofsusa.com/scarcity-not-abundance/

 

"To see that labor is scarce we need to look behind the statistics and study ourselves as individuals. What we find is that we all have a great many more things that need doing or those we want to get done, but we have neither the time, energy, nor initiative to do them. Some of these tasks obviously require materials, but all of them require labor. If one merely extrapolates this fact in one’s mind to extend beyond his own small world of activities, to the activities of his city, his state, his nation, his world, one quickly begins to see that the potential demand for labor is indeed endless. In the end, this is precisely why labor is scarce. Unemployment is actually voluntary!"

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:47 | 7010966 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Soon we wil have 50 Milion on FOOD STAMPS.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:45 | 7010252 stumbLebum
stumbLebum's picture

Jobs are in the sweet spot, QE's finished, smooth sailing ahead.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:30 | 7010488 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

bloomberg reporting a decline in jobs claims

 

reminds me of autos the other day--bloomberg said down and WSJ said up

 

SAAR

 

also reminds me of Fed data--Yellen says economy improving, the 6 Fed regions tracking economy say down

 

investing 45 years ago was easy--you looked for good balance sheets and growth potential, and bought and held.

 

 

 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:43 | 7010237 stant
stant's picture

Well Obammy has something to really cry about and Hillary got to have craped her depends. I bet they all have been up all night

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:42 | 7010239 yogibear
yogibear's picture

But Obama says it's a recovery.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:49 | 7010268 knukles
knukles's picture

Recovery.  Recoveries usually last a few quarters, displaying exrta-suoper-robust growth.  A bounce back if you will.  After the economy has gained traction, so to speak.

We then enter the years long, indeed prolonged EXPANSION stage.  usually noted by continued growth and real job cration (without massive fiddling of the numbers) which can be discerned by help wanted ads all over the place and anybody can find a job, period.  Rates rise due to ever incresing demand for loanable funds.  Pricing pressures rise.

The in the late expansion phase, inflation starts rearing it's head, etc., and the fed tightens to slow an overheated economy

And we're still debating whether it's a RECOVERY                  !!!!!!FAILURE!!!!!! 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:08 | 7010365 arby63
arby63's picture

Nothing is real anymore. You can't trust any numbers and/or any company. It's just all in shambles. Lies and half-truths abound. Every call is a scam. Every commercial is a scam. Sometimes I feel like it's one big concerted effort completely planned and implemented in cadence. Scary.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:42 | 7010241 CHoward
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CNBC Website Headline reads:

Jobless claims fall from 5-month high
Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:43 | 7010247 VinceFostersGhost
VinceFostersGhost's picture

 

 

I luv those guys.....they make me smile.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:48 | 7010266 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

"44th week of under 300k claims the best streak since the 70s" they also said.  Yea I can't beleive I bothered to read your link :)

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:43 | 7010244 kamikun
kamikun's picture

ADP... You've got some 'splaining to do!

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:46 | 7010258 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The government unemployment numbers are so cooked they might as well stop posting them . Probably next step.

 

 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:49 | 7010271 Arnold
Arnold's picture

circuit breakers everywhere.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 12:05 | 7011559 Villageidiot777
Villageidiot777's picture

Soon enough they do not have available work force to write these reports, because everybody is busy working 2 or 3 jobs.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:48 | 7010263 NoPension
NoPension's picture

Half the country is on the .gov teet. That includes the college crowd.
By my estimation, 20% or so of the workforce is off the books.

ADP numbers are bullshit.

They know it. We know it. They know we know they know it.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 08:54 | 7010289 replaceme
replaceme's picture

Not only do they know, they're defying you to call them on it. Fuck you, they're saying with every print. Fuck. You.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:00 | 7010318 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

as billy clinton said: it depends on what the definition of a job is, is.

not looking per .gov definition, not un employed: one non gov example:

"And these days, the unemployed are disproportionately concentrated in the shallow end of the income pool."

 

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:04 | 7010335 yogibear
yogibear's picture

And the DNC has all those new voters/immigrants on medicaid,welfare and food stamps as well.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:19 | 7010421 NoPension
NoPension's picture

I for one, still believe in the laws of physics, and natural laws.

You can only manipulate to a point. Then, something breaks, causes overshoot, and a reversion to the mean.
Wash, rinse, repeat.

This will sort itself out.

My personal conflict; Do I want to be around when it happens, and drink in the pleasure of seeing the veil pulled back?
Or will I wish I were dead?

Well, option #2 is easy enough.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 09:47 | 7010589 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

As night follows day, a report of a 10k drop in first timers is bad news somehow on ZH.

 

Where's the monthly post on the Challenger numbers - you know, the one the Tylers kept putting up saying "someone is lying"?  Must've missed that one with oall the China fuss.

Thu, 01/07/2016 - 10:08 | 7010762 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Just compare year over year unadjusted and forget the rest of the BS.

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