Initial Jobless Claims Regime Shifts - Average Jumps To 6-Month Highs
The much-watched four-week average of initial jobless claims rose to 277k, accelerating to the highest levels since early July 2015. This "trend shift" began as rate-hike odds increased in October... just as we saw the trend shift after QE3 ended...
Continuing claims rose once again hovering at its highest in 4 months.
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I told you the ADP numbers were rubbish...
4% unemployment here we come.....YES WE CAN!!!!
I can't wait for negative unemployment!
( Hey, it's the BLSBS )
Humans, flora, and fauna all fully employed Mr. President. You are a hero to the entire universe.
http://aofsusa.com/scarcity-not-abundance/
"To see that labor is scarce we need to look behind the statistics and study ourselves as individuals. What we find is that we all have a great many more things that need doing or those we want to get done, but we have neither the time, energy, nor initiative to do them. Some of these tasks obviously require materials, but all of them require labor. If one merely extrapolates this fact in one’s mind to extend beyond his own small world of activities, to the activities of his city, his state, his nation, his world, one quickly begins to see that the potential demand for labor is indeed endless. In the end, this is precisely why labor is scarce. Unemployment is actually voluntary!"
Soon we wil have 50 Milion on FOOD STAMPS.
Jobs are in the sweet spot, QE's finished, smooth sailing ahead.
bloomberg reporting a decline in jobs claims
reminds me of autos the other day--bloomberg said down and WSJ said up
SAAR
also reminds me of Fed data--Yellen says economy improving, the 6 Fed regions tracking economy say down
investing 45 years ago was easy--you looked for good balance sheets and growth potential, and bought and held.
Well Obammy has something to really cry about and Hillary got to have craped her depends. I bet they all have been up all night
But Obama says it's a recovery.
Recovery. Recoveries usually last a few quarters, displaying exrta-suoper-robust growth. A bounce back if you will. After the economy has gained traction, so to speak.
We then enter the years long, indeed prolonged EXPANSION stage. usually noted by continued growth and real job cration (without massive fiddling of the numbers) which can be discerned by help wanted ads all over the place and anybody can find a job, period. Rates rise due to ever incresing demand for loanable funds. Pricing pressures rise.
The in the late expansion phase, inflation starts rearing it's head, etc., and the fed tightens to slow an overheated economy
And we're still debating whether it's a RECOVERY !!!!!!FAILURE!!!!!!
Nothing is real anymore. You can't trust any numbers and/or any company. It's just all in shambles. Lies and half-truths abound. Every call is a scam. Every commercial is a scam. Sometimes I feel like it's one big concerted effort completely planned and implemented in cadence. Scary.
CNBC Website Headline reads:
Jobless claims fall from 5-month highI luv those guys.....they make me smile.
"44th week of under 300k claims the best streak since the 70s" they also said. Yea I can't beleive I bothered to read your link :)
ADP... You've got some 'splaining to do!
The government unemployment numbers are so cooked they might as well stop posting them . Probably next step.
circuit breakers everywhere.
Soon enough they do not have available work force to write these reports, because everybody is busy working 2 or 3 jobs.
Half the country is on the .gov teet. That includes the college crowd.
By my estimation, 20% or so of the workforce is off the books.
ADP numbers are bullshit.
They know it. We know it. They know we know they know it.
Not only do they know, they're defying you to call them on it. Fuck you, they're saying with every print. Fuck. You.
as billy clinton said: it depends on what the definition of a job is, is.
not looking per .gov definition, not un employed: one non gov example:
"And these days, the unemployed are disproportionately concentrated in the shallow end of the income pool."
And the DNC has all those new voters/immigrants on medicaid,welfare and food stamps as well.
I for one, still believe in the laws of physics, and natural laws.
You can only manipulate to a point. Then, something breaks, causes overshoot, and a reversion to the mean.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
This will sort itself out.
My personal conflict; Do I want to be around when it happens, and drink in the pleasure of seeing the veil pulled back?
Or will I wish I were dead?
Well, option #2 is easy enough.
As night follows day, a report of a 10k drop in first timers is bad news somehow on ZH.
Where's the monthly post on the Challenger numbers - you know, the one the Tylers kept putting up saying "someone is lying"? Must've missed that one with oall the China fuss.
Just compare year over year unadjusted and forget the rest of the BS.