In Q4 When 282,000 Average Jobs Were Supposedly Added, The Atlanta Fed Sees GDP At A Paltry 0.8%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just over two hours ago, following the latest disappointing wholesale sales and trade, using the Atlanta Fed's GDP methodology, we calculated just where the regional Fed would trim its famous "nowcast" estimate to:

Moments ago, that's precisely what the Atlanta Fed's revised Q4 GDP estimate was lowered to. To wit:

Latest forecast — January 8, 2016

 

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.8 percent on January 8, down from 1.0 percent on January 6. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth declined 0.2 percentage points to -0.8 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast

So, to summarize: in a quarter in which GDP rose by 0.8%, and was likely negative when excluding the benefits - yes, that's right, benefits - of the warm winter, the same way last year's "harsh winter" supposedly subtracted from GDP, the US added on average over 270,000 workers per month.

Just when you thought the Chinese Department of Truth couldn't be topped...

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Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:59 | 7017787 Lady Jessica
Lady Jessica's picture

Kudos ZH.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:01 | 7017797 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

Not needed.  They already patted themselves on the back.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 15:38 | 7018574 LowerSlowerDela...
LowerSlowerDelaware_LSD's picture

The "news" emphatically told me at the top of the hour that this is FANTASTIC news - that the Obama/Hillary economy is BOOMING!!!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:00 | 7017788 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Still cannot figure out why these folks are being so "truthy"...

There's a trade in there somewhere...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:04 | 7017814 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Yeah, it truly is a curious thing, especially when it goes against pronouncements from the Eccles building.....

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:19 | 7017888 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Just as long as there aren't two consecutive negative numbers, they can be as truthy as they want.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:03 | 7017792 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Rant Alert: Really, if you are going to be on ZH, please STOP supporting your retarded NFL team (skull & bones) you dumbass super debt slave.  Get out there, enjoy the real world and stop supporting Mike Brown and Obama supporters.  If you watch the NFL you are the problem with America. Thanks. I have no peers here anymore. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:03 | 7017806 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

"If you watch the NFL you are the problem with America."  Spoken like a true ZH drone.  I'm sure you're a real treat to be around.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:04 | 7017816 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Eat it sheeple. Go enjoy your pathetic escpae from reality watching grown men play kids games. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:05 | 7017822 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

Uh, I don't watch the NFL.  It's full of a bunch of over-paid neanderthals.  I was merely pointing out how blanket generalizations like yours show how little you've got going on mentally.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:11 | 7017836 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Blanket statements huh, have you talked to the average NFL fan lately? I can assure you I have, it's not going well upstairs. They are pretty cool with black men's football statistics though. I'll give them that much. My favotite are the drones who say, "Oh, I love watching the Stuper Bowl for the funny commercials." LOL. You can't make this tom foolery up if you tried.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:17 | 7017881 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

Hey, whatever you need to feel more complete, criticize away.  The Super Bowl commercial type are fools, but I know plenty of NFL fans (some casual, some serious) who aren't lowest-common-denominator types like you seem to encounter.  One is a Fortune 500 CEO that's got his shit together.  Another is a cardiologist.  Sure, the masses are buffoons, but "the average NFL fan" profile doesn't make them all dim bulbs.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:30 | 7017886 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

I suppose the sun shines on a dogs ass every once and awhile. Like I said enjoy the games, I know you'll be watching despite what you are saying. OH, Amazing a FORTUNE 500 CEO, the smartest man in the room! Fleecing Americans every chance he gets I'm sure. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:43 | 7017971 Sweet Cheeks
Sweet Cheeks's picture

Hitlery_4_Dictator,
No peers here?  Got that right; none of us are that angry. Why aren't you somewhere reading Sun Tsu or at least doing something useful like chopping wood instead of piling on the NFL at a financial site?

And just what the heck is up with your name, Hitlery_4_Dictator? It is too hard to type on mobile devices and unnecessarily combative with no real substance.  Is itpossible that you are a clover muncher who couldn't compete in high school and resented the jocks? Just know that even if football disappeared, you still wouldn't achieve equality with alpha warriors on the field or off.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:52 | 7018004 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

NFL IS big business...big...I suppose it does qualify for discussion on a site like this. The nasty comments can get pretty funny too...shit, this is Fight Club...fuck all, folks brawl, we come back later to read the comments...the best part of this site in my opinion.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:53 | 7018005 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Playing sports is a different animal all together, nothing wrong with that. Enjoy the bread and circus that are known as the NFL. Hey did you catch that awesome gladiator game, I mean UFC fight? 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:35 | 7017931 db51
db51's picture

You're a fucking idiot....a Fortune 500 CEO....a caridiologist.    all you have proven is there are some lowest common denominator people at the highest pay scale.  The fact that they had the brains to accomplish that feat and STILL be watching NFL proves the point you are trying to defend.   I have a son-in-law who is in IT, makes good money....a fucking football addict....his family....my daughter and grandkids suffer greatly from the waste of valuable family time, and the usual alcohol that always has to be involved for a "real" fan to enjoy the game and "relax"   And then there's the fucking Fantasy Football....give me a break.   It's a fucking joke.   They're worse than dim bulbs...they are fucking losers. You included.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:43 | 7017972 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

He's an addict. Thats not footballs fault.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:35 | 7017940 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

Well yeah by that same logic, there are CEO types that also like porn, underage hookers, and cry when they hold a puppy...

People have guilty pleasures for sure, but NFL Yankee Football IS ANNOYING...I live in a state that's totally sportstard.
Civilization is in a b-movie slow-mo death scene, but...

GO TIGERS!
YEAH LIONS!
FUCKIN A RED WINGS!!!

Delusional, worthless, fuck-wipes seem to be the bulk of sportstards...shit, I watch some sports and I've witnessed sportstardedness for decades...the idiots will actually come to fucking blows over teams...

FUCK SOCCER as well...sorry Eurofriends, but many of those fans are CRAZY too.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:41 | 7017962 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

I predict this guy won't be coming on ZH ever again. LOL

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:47 | 7017986 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

It IS Fight Club...shit...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:21 | 7017892 rejected
rejected's picture

"watching grown men play kids games. "

watching girly males play kids games.

fixed it for ya.

 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:21 | 7017893 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

Yankee "Football" is homoerotic Tribalism.
Think about the terminology used...it's all pure faggitry!

Go Long
Tight Ends
Wide Receivers
Being Sacked
Pounded

I actually heard this one morning not too long ago on some sports channel...

"This guy has been pounded hard all season, with eight sacks over his head..."

WTF?

PURE FAGGITRY

P.S.

When 10 or more huge black guys run after me, I don't try to block the bastards....I either shoot or run the fuck away if either is possible of course...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:50 | 7017994 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Football is the perfect excuse to hit them legally.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:45 | 7017979 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Umm football is fun. Do you have any friends?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:56 | 7018024 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

I do have friends and they all happen to have more self-respoect than to watch a dumbed down kids game. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 14:05 | 7018064 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Its a game. You know. For fun?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 14:22 | 7018154 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

It's become a national obession. It was just a "game" back in 1954. Mindless zombies would lose thier collective shit if the NFL ever went on strike. Which I would love to see. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 14:52 | 7018316 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Who cares if its changed? Why so serious?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 15:06 | 7018391 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Because this country is burning and they care more about a silly game meant to dumb them down. The elites get away with literal murder, but as long as the slaves have their beer parties watching the NFL it's all good. If you are not mad you are not paying attention. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:10 | 7017848 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

Go Green Bay!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:20 | 7017859 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

LOL F Green Gay. I used to live in WI, the most mind numbing sport dork packer sheeple ever. LOL

 

Dur, Dur, Brett Favre, Durr Durr we love him...durr durr Brett Favre left us...dur dur we hate him now. Durr, duur...sports matter, players have loyality to us. News flash.... no sports players give 2 shits about you, it's all about the money. They do not care about you or your team loyalty. 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 18:28 | 7019390 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

Go Green Bay!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 15:20 | 7018471 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Without massive government subsidies and eminent domain laws, allowing team owners to expropriate and tear down thriving neighbourhoods to make way for stadiums and mayors to pretend cities suffering from terminal white flight are "world-class," major league sports probably wouldn't exist in their current form.

There would be lots more sports teams, though---and season tickets would be affordable on a middle-class income.

Leave sports to the free market. Leave "mass games" to the North Koreans.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 16:25 | 7018856 hongdo
hongdo's picture

Rant Alert: Really, if you are going to be on ZH, please STOP hijacking threads you dumbass super debt slave.  Get out there, enjoy the real world and stop wasting peoples time.  If you waste too much time on ZH you are the problem with yourself. Thanks. I have no peers here anymore.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:10 | 7017793 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Haha... Chew on that one Jimmy"tool time" Cramer.

 Be sure to say hello to your pal Larry Kudlow for me. :-)

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:01 | 7017798 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

GDP calculations have a margin of error between 1.5 and 3%

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:05 | 7017820 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Especially, when they're triple seasonally adjusted.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:02 | 7017801 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

So if Atlanta is accurate and they seem to be, and the concensus is 100% higher than their current GDP forecast, one would think S&P earnings would be heading quite a bit further south from $96 we are at now...once the E&P area starts defaulting and pulling banks down with them, housing will stagnate in the face of mortgage rate hikes and F150 sales will hit the skids...should be a fun spring.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:04 | 7017817 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

Amazing how many people have increased the size of vehicle they're purchasing based on the recent trends of 1) easy approval and 2) cheap gas.  Could get ugly.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:16 | 7017864 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Consensus Earnings for the Dow 30 in dolllars (Not Shares):  

2014 Actual:  351,310

2015 Actual and estimated for 4th Quarter: 332,735

2016 Estimate: 349,670

 

Not even as good as 2014...

Now that's one strong economy.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:07 | 7017833 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Atlanta uses the same numbers as DC, but without the thick bullshit coating. If they were allowed to use honest numbers it would be much worse, but their "suicide" rate would be very high.....

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:56 | 7018020 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

look at the monthly data comin gout of the 6 regional Feds that report econ activity.

Dallas and KC dying over the oil slowdown

 

NE dying just because economy is slow. Same for Chicago Fed

 

Richmond Fed was doing well the longest, due to DC money floating  around. Now thats slowing too.

 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 14:23 | 7018159 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Careful, noticing that could get you sent to 'fun' camp.......

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:04 | 7017813 madbraz
madbraz's picture

yet these a$$holes in charge don't go to jail

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:07 | 7017831 cordial savage
cordial savage's picture

"Hey, I didn't get a harrumph outta that guy!"

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:06 | 7017823 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

when they cut it to .08 we will be able to have a drink over it, won't long... say 5 pm?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:06 | 7017827 eyesofpelosi
eyesofpelosi's picture

The PPT is sure slugging it out to keep this shit in the green...kinda spooky watching manipulation in progress.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:07 | 7017832 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

270,000 waitresses and bartenders in time for the Holiday season when people go out to office parties and no one wants to cook

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 13:13 | 7017862 dognuts
dognuts's picture

What few people realized is that 2014 GDP in Dollar terms was revised down by 0.8% mid 2015.  That really means that any print under 0.8% is contraction. 

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