The December Jobs Report: Full Summary

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Sourtesy of Southbay Research

December Nonfarm Payrolls - Key Trends

  • Transportation revised up thanks to UPS/Fedex revisions
  • December boosted by warm weather, January to reverse
  • Low oil prices benefiting the petrochemical sector
  • Consumer Spending remains strong

Courier payrolls revised up as expected

Last month courier payrolls were reported at -3K  This reflected an unbelievably low not seasonally adjusted figure of +25K.  I predicted a big revision here and I was correct: Courier NSA payrolls were revised up to 65K, boosting the seasonally adjusted figures to +11K

Thank the Warm Weather

Mild weather boosted December payrolls ~40K: Construction payrolls (+45K), Building Material payrolls (+9K), Retail Clothing Store payrolls (-17K), and building services (+3K).  I would even include the 15K surge in motion picture hiring as well as some of the restaurant payroll jump.  And that's on top of November which had a similar experience.

It means a big payback in January when these trends reverse.  Expect a 70K headwind next month
In essence the warm weather delayed seasonal layoffs.  They are still going to (largely) happen

The Upside to low oil prices

The oil sector has been decimated but the downstream chemical and rubber producers have benefited from the low prices.  They represent a larger employer base and their payrolls continue to move up

Consumer Spending remains Solid

Restaurant and Bar payrolls rose an impressive 37K. 
That's the most important consumer sentiment related sector and it came in strong.

Key Trends:

  • Construction: +45K
  • Manufacturing: +8K
  • Retail: +4K
  • Temp workers: +34K
  • Healthcare:  +53K
  • Food Services: +37K
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Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:13 | 7017196 KesselRunin12Parsecs
KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture

Thanks to this administration, 'BLOW' Jobs have seen a dramatic increase.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:17 | 7017236 knukles
knukles's picture

Even with the jury rigged numbers, the economy "reported" sucks.
So we're still debating whether we're in a "Recovery" 8 years later....  Where's the Expansion Phase?
Who asked that?  Who fucking asked "Where's the Expansion Phase"?  Off to the Clinton Perpetual Summer of Joy Camp with You!

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:15 | 7017556 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Tsk Knukles, the bureaucrats all have jobs and that's the important part.......

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:33 | 7017627 dfwpike
dfwpike's picture

"December boosted by warm weather."

I thought Macy's said their bad December was because of warm weather.  I'm confused.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 20:01 | 7019759 philipat
philipat's picture

"Consumer spending remains solid"?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:11 | 7017205 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes. Wish we had a good read on "cash only" or "under the table" jobs.

get long sharecropping and guillotines, beat the rush.

If you do have any "official" income the taxman cometh as all those state and federal pensions need to be PAID...

what is the official poverty level now? $55,000 per year? LMFAO!!! we have been here before...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:17 | 7017563 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I know a lot of people living in the outlaw economy, with more joining every day. I have my own plans.....

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:11 | 7017206 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

Soon, a part-time job will also be as treasured as the dwindling full-time job is.  

How many unemployed citizens can the Obamanation of Entitlements support?

 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:12 | 7017213 Ms No
Ms No's picture

Warm weather and bartender jobs, no surprise there. 

"January is expected to reverse."  Winter is coming.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:13 | 7017214 o r c k
o r c k's picture

Finally, everything is fixed.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:15 | 7017230 arbwhore
arbwhore's picture

Yeah... but Powerball is at $800m so fuck it...

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:22 | 7017269 Banker Buster
Banker Buster's picture

Have you guys seen the foreclosures in California around Los Angeles area?  I was looking at house prices on Zillow in that Porter Ranch area where they are having to leave due to the Gas leak.  I see a lot of houses for sale there, then checked foreclosures and noticed not only Porter Ranch but everywhere around there has a lot of foreclosures.  WOW I was shocked, looks like the housing bust is back.  It seems Housing prices cannot sustain increases that exceed incomes...  Hmm that's interesting.  Thank you easy money Fed Bernanke and Yellen.

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:16 | 7017425 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Funny how that works when expenses exceed declining personal incomes...I will be impressed with the "financial engineering genuius's," when they figure out a way for individuals to repurchase their own shares of stock in themselves, so they can continue to deficit spend.

S/

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:43 | 7017391 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

need

nore

immigrants

 

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 11:44 | 7017400 JamaicaJim
JamaicaJim's picture

Yes...and since we're so "strong", those 94,000,000 jobLESS, OFF the books don't count are not even in the mix.

Fucking blow some shit smoke up someone elses asshole....

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:02 | 7017496 Sir John Bagot Glubb
Sir John Bagot Glubb's picture

Nice to see all those jobs that went to China are coming right back..........what is it?  8,000 in a land of 320 million?  Pop the champagne.  

Make sure you BTFDs!  

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:26 | 7017613 ThrowAwayYourTV
ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

I can tell things are bad just by looking at my little local bargin paper.

When things are good its about 3/8" thick with everything in there from used tires to used beds.

Now its about 3 pages thick and not one thing for sale. All ads. Oh, and there were a couple of motel cleaning jobs and a dishwasher wanted. So that means everything is great, right?

Fri, 01/08/2016 - 12:30 | 7017629 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Drove past a local small scale temp help agency around 7pm Tuesday evening. There were about 50 cars in the lot and on the street. Some sort of hiring fair going on. I wonder how many actual openings were available. With the unemployment rate being so low, this all doesn't seem quite right.

Sat, 01/09/2016 - 04:24 | 7020898 McRocket
McRocket's picture

All of the following is to do with not seasonally adjusted December employment numbers (Table A-9) between 2010-2015.

The 45-54 age group is the highest average earning age group in America.

For 2010 and 2011, their numbers went up 69,000 and 12,000 respectively.

For 2012, 2013 and 2014 they went down 68,000, 166,000 and 23,000 respectively.

This year they went down 259,000...way more then any year in the past 6. And light years more then any year other then 2013 of those 6 years.

To me, that shows a definite pattern...and it ain't a good one.

Throw in the fact that this year saw a massive increase in 16-19 employment (compared to the previous 5 Decembers) further points to what I have suspected for a long time...that good jobs in America are slowly being replaced with not-so-good jobs.

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