The December Jobs Report: Full Summary
Sourtesy of Southbay Research
December Nonfarm Payrolls - Key Trends
- Transportation revised up thanks to UPS/Fedex revisions
- December boosted by warm weather, January to reverse
- Low oil prices benefiting the petrochemical sector
- Consumer Spending remains strong
Courier payrolls revised up as expected
Last month courier payrolls were reported at -3K This reflected an unbelievably low not seasonally adjusted figure of +25K. I predicted a big revision here and I was correct: Courier NSA payrolls were revised up to 65K, boosting the seasonally adjusted figures to +11K
Thank the Warm Weather
Mild weather boosted December payrolls ~40K: Construction payrolls (+45K), Building Material payrolls (+9K), Retail Clothing Store payrolls (-17K), and building services (+3K). I would even include the 15K surge in motion picture hiring as well as some of the restaurant payroll jump. And that's on top of November which had a similar experience.
It means a big payback in January when these trends reverse. Expect a 70K headwind next month
In essence the warm weather delayed seasonal layoffs. They are still going to (largely) happen
The Upside to low oil prices
The oil sector has been decimated but the downstream chemical and rubber producers have benefited from the low prices. They represent a larger employer base and their payrolls continue to move up
Consumer Spending remains Solid
Restaurant and Bar payrolls rose an impressive 37K.
That's the most important consumer sentiment related sector and it came in strong.
Key Trends:
- Construction: +45K
- Manufacturing: +8K
- Retail: +4K
- Temp workers: +34K
- Healthcare: +53K
- Food Services: +37K
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Thanks to this administration, 'BLOW' Jobs have seen a dramatic increase.
Even with the jury rigged numbers, the economy "reported" sucks.
So we're still debating whether we're in a "Recovery" 8 years later.... Where's the Expansion Phase?
Who asked that? Who fucking asked "Where's the Expansion Phase"? Off to the Clinton Perpetual Summer of Joy Camp with You!
Tsk Knukles, the bureaucrats all have jobs and that's the important part.......
"December boosted by warm weather."
I thought Macy's said their bad December was because of warm weather. I'm confused.
"Consumer spending remains solid"?
Yes. Wish we had a good read on "cash only" or "under the table" jobs.
get long sharecropping and guillotines, beat the rush.
If you do have any "official" income the taxman cometh as all those state and federal pensions need to be PAID...
what is the official poverty level now? $55,000 per year? LMFAO!!! we have been here before...
I know a lot of people living in the outlaw economy, with more joining every day. I have my own plans.....
Soon, a part-time job will also be as treasured as the dwindling full-time job is.
How many unemployed citizens can the Obamanation of Entitlements support?
Warm weather and bartender jobs, no surprise there.
"January is expected to reverse." Winter is coming.
Finally, everything is fixed.
Yeah... but Powerball is at $800m so fuck it...
Have you guys seen the foreclosures in California around Los Angeles area? I was looking at house prices on Zillow in that Porter Ranch area where they are having to leave due to the Gas leak. I see a lot of houses for sale there, then checked foreclosures and noticed not only Porter Ranch but everywhere around there has a lot of foreclosures. WOW I was shocked, looks like the housing bust is back. It seems Housing prices cannot sustain increases that exceed incomes... Hmm that's interesting. Thank you easy money Fed Bernanke and Yellen.
Funny how that works when expenses exceed declining personal incomes...I will be impressed with the "financial engineering genuius's," when they figure out a way for individuals to repurchase their own shares of stock in themselves, so they can continue to deficit spend.
S/
need
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immigrants
Yes...and since we're so "strong", those 94,000,000 jobLESS, OFF the books don't count are not even in the mix.
Fucking blow some shit smoke up someone elses asshole....
Nice to see all those jobs that went to China are coming right back..........what is it? 8,000 in a land of 320 million? Pop the champagne.
Make sure you BTFDs!
I can tell things are bad just by looking at my little local bargin paper.
When things are good its about 3/8" thick with everything in there from used tires to used beds.
Now its about 3 pages thick and not one thing for sale. All ads. Oh, and there were a couple of motel cleaning jobs and a dishwasher wanted. So that means everything is great, right?
Drove past a local small scale temp help agency around 7pm Tuesday evening. There were about 50 cars in the lot and on the street. Some sort of hiring fair going on. I wonder how many actual openings were available. With the unemployment rate being so low, this all doesn't seem quite right.
All of the following is to do with not seasonally adjusted December employment numbers (Table A-9) between 2010-2015.
The 45-54 age group is the highest average earning age group in America.
For 2010 and 2011, their numbers went up 69,000 and 12,000 respectively.
For 2012, 2013 and 2014 they went down 68,000, 166,000 and 23,000 respectively.
This year they went down 259,000...way more then any year in the past 6. And light years more then any year other then 2013 of those 6 years.
To me, that shows a definite pattern...and it ain't a good one.
Throw in the fact that this year saw a massive increase in 16-19 employment (compared to the previous 5 Decembers) further points to what I have suspected for a long time...that good jobs in America are slowly being replaced with not-so-good jobs.