"Fasten Your Seatbelts" - UBS Warns Of "Record Spikes In Volatility" If This Level Breaks
Having warned earlier in the week of the potential for a significant crash in US equities and the appeal of owning gold, UBS goes one further in their recent report warning of "record spikes" in volatility should the following levels break...
Generally, the late September bottom in equities has an absolutely pivotal character for a lot of markets. In Europe, the September low represents the 2009 bull trend. In the Russell-2000 or the MSCI World, it is the neckline of a huge head & shoulder formation and in the S&P-500 it is an obvious double bottom, which would be negated as well as breaking the 32-month moving average.
Analytically, this moving average has a very good track record in signaling whether the US market is still in a bull market or not. Even the 1987 crash was just a pullback and mean reversion to this moving average, whereas in 2001 and 2008 the break of the 32-month average was confirmation that a real bear market had started.
So regardless of when we get this signal, a break of the late September low at 1867 in the S&P-500 would be the ultimate confirmation that the US market is also in a real bear market and in this case we would recommend to fasten your seatbelts.
If we look into the macro world we are obviously living in a world of extremes. We have record debt in the Emerging Market complex, in Europe, in Japan and in the US; with margin debt in the US at record levels, M&A hitting record levels, record ETF holdings in corporate bonds, record auto loans in the US, and the list continues.
We would be surprised that in this highly leveraged world, in combination with a structural decline in market liquidity, a 7-year cycle decline would just be mild. We think it’s actually just the other way around and in this context we see last year’s rise in volatility as just the start of a period with exceptionally high volatility where we wouldn’t be surprised to see record spikes in volatility over the next 12 to 17 months. So another key call we have for the next 12 to 15 months is to be long volatility.
Particularly with regards to the ongoing bear market in high yields, we think that volatility in equities is too low and this will be one of the key charts for 2016.
Last year we argued that we generally see all these divergences as a leading indicator for an important top in global equities. 12 months later we are in the next phase of the global rolling over process, where we see more and more markets having already fallen into a bear market, and where on the other hand we can clearly say that without a new momentum impulse coming from the fundamental world the air for the remaining outperformer markets will get increasingly thin.
Source: UBS
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Definition of Delusion: Market forces still exist!
Everyone needs to watch this NOW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcACvjXuclA&spfreload=10
One of the most powerful videos ever done. If you don't like the music press mute, but watch it.
When an artist like Korn is putting this kind of stuff out you know it's almost over.
Not really, rage against machine have been preaching for years. It's just korn haven't been making good music, so the went political.
Flase. Rage against the Machine NEVER made good music and now they rage FOR the machine, how tragic.
Don't agree there bud.
They love Obama and hate Whites. I saw them in Shitcago live in 1998, they sucked - Rage against teh machine are trash.
Prove me they love Obama. And stop giving your self green arrow
Simple. In August 2008, Rage headlined the free Tent State Music Festival to End the War in Denver during the Democratic National Convention. The band was supported by Flobots, State Radio, Jello Biafra, and Wayne Kramer.[54] Following the concert, the band, following uniformed veterans from Iraq Veterans Against the War, led the 8,000 attendees to the Denver Coliseum on a 6-mile march to Invesco Field, host of the DNC.
Speaking of the Occupy Wall Street movement, Morello listed its accomplishments. “I think that there have already been great successes. One is, the idea that this horrific economic inequality exists, it’s already something on the front page,” he said.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2012/10/15/morello-kool-aid-war-c...
http://www.spin.com/2012/10/tom-morello-paul-ryan-jackass/
Bunch of fucking tards.
Korn. Pfffffttt...
Queensryche!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNdOsL4Xe7Q&list=PLTk3jgCz4KhJLWpKPH-9yA...
Hey I like Queensryche too. they were awesome.
Winger! lol
hey i liked winger at one time
Ok, now that someone has PTFO, we can actually discuss this exciting news! No, not volatility strategies... I mean Jerry Hall!?! Seriously? Sloppy seconds from a junkie?
Hey lets not forget Ministry NWO. Psalm 69
hey they ruled
https://vimeo.com/44568228
They are anti white/communist/anarchy fuckin trash shit. Thank God I was born in 1970 an got to enjoy my youth in the 80's.
I was born in the late 1970's and even I know Rage sucks ass.
Well, at least you can say that you were around to catch the last years of the England Dan & John Ford Coley juggernaut.
it is all a matter of opinion and everyone has different tastes...
they once made good music
oh rubbish
they have been making great music from the start
Rage is a CIA Psy-Ops band
Their lead singer is a harvard grad and a gov shill
fuck him and fuck that anti-white mestizo singer of his
Not the best thing Maynard James has ever done but the lyrics make it an excellent market collapse companion.
"Blood sky in the morning... should've seen the warning...assume crash position... toss the extras over.... poseidons on a mission... about to turn it up to 11.... all hands on deck"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFNCLbakQec
I like "Faith no Mores" Falling to pieces better. -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32bdevGClD4
This is Fight Club
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCD9IN-Sx4Y
Nice! I am too a unique snowflake damn it!
That one and Queensryche are good. Korn used to be alright.
I,d like to end this argument once and for all, Van Halen/Hagar song off Balance rightly named "Dream is Over". Song f,n Rocks.
Good one, but I think "In-n-Out" sums it up.
"Yeah, I've been in debt, from conception
And I'll pay for the rest of your life ..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkH7qvNfV_E
Metallica "don't tread on" me still has one of the best intros for a political song, somewhat low on lyric content though. And Crosby Stills and Nash straight kicks ass...still.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmvG2ZiPfoo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCS-g3HwXdc
The coming Financial CATACLYSM. It'll be Ugly, Bloody, and Messy >> http://bit.ly/1KogtGi
That Korn video was good.
However, charting pre-QE against post-QE is foolishness.
The VIX is down because the Fed Fucks want it down. Its not enough for UBS to say it is too low.
Compared to fucking what?
Of course its too low, ask the Fed Fucks to back off the PPT bullshit (buying S&P eminis, shorting VIX ETFs, and selling the Yen).
Get the markets back to the fundamentals without the Fed Fuck's training wheels.
Then we will be...Yellin' watch out below.
Hitlery, other than fast flashing of scenes and photos of people, was there a message beyond the loud, obnoxious music and the pop culture that distracts people from the truly important?
Really, you could not see it. The Anit NSA stuff, anit-obama, pro liberty message? What's wrong with you?
Hitlery,
Why waste time with all the flash when less than 6 sentences would summarize a 4 minute video. Lots here don't want an acid trip; those are so 60's.
I knew about the Illuminati before it was cool. Cool enough to sell "alternative" music that is.
There is unrest in the forest...
https://youtu.be/9bZwTH15qBQ
i have always liked korn always will
Sorry this is off topic.
But CNBC just announced that Jerry Hall ( Mick Jagger's ex ) is marrying Rupert Murdoch.
I guess we know where all the missing gold is now. That bitch dug WAAAAaaay deep for that pile.
The bottom (in gold) is in!
Welcome to a cluster of fuck, world wide market style.
Time for an assessment of your vital commodities list.
Turn fiat into value before it isn't worth a pinch of coon shit.
The Chinese overlords better have a plan how to keep 1 billion pissed off starving zombies at bay.
12 to 17 months !! Take that as 12-17 weeks !
O.K., S&P 1867 to make my week, 666 to make my year and get back to reality!
another one? there is no way all the big guys are warning you of imminent stock market disaster for your benefit. it is just not in their character to worry about you.
But are they talking their book or just want shorts to muppetize
That's why it's probably not the big one. Not to say that it wont be bad but they may have one more shake out and QE in there.
CONGRATS DJIA, 52 points today!!! Yes, send me a prospectus!!!
UBS is putting out some good stuff lately.
Thanks Tyler.
UBS told us to buy gold, etc.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-06/ubs-sees-30-bear-market-get-out...