"Trump Could Win It All": 20% Of Democrats Say They'd Vote For Trump Over Hillary

Tyler Durden's picture

At this point, it’s become abundantly clear that Donald Trump’s brazen rhetoric and unorthodox campaign strategy (which primarily involves simply saying whatever pops into his head with no filter whatsoever) isn’t a liability.

In fact, the bellicose billionaire’s style and penchant for controversy has catapulted the real estate mogul to the top of the polls leaving but one serious challenger (Ted Cruz) for the GOP nomination.

Recently, Trump has taken aim at Hillary Clinton, calling her “disgusting,” a “liar”, and insisting that she’s “married to an abuser.” His first television ad opens with a black and white image Obama and Clinton who are referred to only as “the politicians” (a nod to Trump’s contention that he’s trustworthy precisely because he comes from outside the Beltway, so to speak).

Still, few analysts believe Trump could best Clinton in the national election.

A new poll shows that may be a miscalculation.

According to a survey conducted by Washington-based Mercury Analytics, 20% of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump. Here’s more from US News & World Report:

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?

 

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk.


The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

 

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.

 

When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."

 

About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."

 

Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters."

 

He continues, "The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."

Right. And that's precisely what we've been saying for months. Put more simply: Trump is gaffe proof, which means it isn't about how many outlandish things he says, it's about whether he can craft a coherent narrative.

As the campaign drags on, his message is starting to sound more like an actual policy platform and less like an ad hoc series of soundbites.

And that's a very dangerous thing for the Democrats.

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Occams_Chainsaw's picture

Every election cycle I think it just can't get worse.  Then it does....  (Lather, Rinse, Repeat...)

Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

I'm voting for Trump, he's the man!

Miles Ahead's picture

And the Germans and Scands are all up in arms over a few drunk louts on NY Eve groping women and lifting mobile phones.

No clamour over this however... not a peep.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/01/08/basic-income-basic-issues/

1/4 of Europe is facing poverty as of today.  Thanks to the 342 Billionaires.  Some even in Cologne...

Miles Ahead's picture

@chainsaw

Actually, it can't.  Obama vs. Palin.  It's impossible to do worse than that (they were going to ice McCain if they won).

And Obama's 8 year run?  Can't get any worse.  You could bring back Tricky Dick, or Dubya. 

I'm voting Trump. (Just kidding... never registered in my life... born smart).

KesselRunin12Parsecs's picture
KesselRunin12Parsecs (not verified) Occams_Chainsaw Jan 10, 2016 3:28 PM

Anyone who 'votes' for anything in this corrupt system is an idiot who is part of the PROBLEM not the SOLUTION.

curbjob's picture

If you think that there is no fix from  within the current system, then wouldn't it make sense to vote for the candidate that's  least capable of extending and pretending ?

 

Call me jaundiced but I'm voting for the candidate that's most likely to be a single term'er .

Tarshatha's picture

What is truly shocking is that there is a single human that would vote for that psycho Hillary.

Tarzan's picture

Trump could win it all, yet the Republican shills for Jeb are still running around scar mongering the People, saying if they nominate Trump and not Jeb, Hillary will trounce him. Laughable, as Trump trounces Jeb.

I'm afraid it's all theater anyway, as after Trump wins the Republican Nomination we'll find out he's been sleeping with his Nephew or something. 

Establishment's gotta have their GUY, Hillary.  Diabold will provide her votes...

August's picture

Even more hilarious are the Republican shills running around breathlessly portraying the tactical, strategic and substantive differences between Cruz... and Rubio.

I expect nothing much from a Trump Presidency, but I almost want to vote for the guy due to the absurd and near-universal attacks on, and poo-pooing of, his candidacy coming out of the Rep and Dem "establishment".

Love him or loathe him, Trump is NOT Ron Paul... and he won't be RonPauled by the slimeball politicos and media.

If the Republicans succeed in nominating Rubio, I take heart that many Americans will never take the Republican Party seriously again.  Which is a small bit 'o progress.

SuperRay's picture

Hilarious, because it perfectly captures what's really going on.  The problem is people are so afraid to think for themselves that they'll actually vote for giant douces and turd sandwiches. Bring on the asteriod - it's my preferred apocalyptic vision.  

The Saint's picture
The Saint (not verified) SuperRay Jan 10, 2016 6:11 PM

The supervolcano is more likely.

Tarzan's picture

So, you desire the Great and Terrible day of the Lord?

"Oh, that you would rend the heavens and come down, that the mountains would tremble before you!"

 

"Alas, you who are longing for the day of the LORD, For what purpose will the day of the LORD be to you? It will be darkness and not light;  As when a man flees from a lion And a bear meets him, Or goes home, leans his hand against the wall And a snake bites him. Will not the day of the LORD be darkness instead of light, Even gloom with no brightness in it?…"

 

"In that day, the LORD will punish with his sword-- his fierce, great and powerful sword-- Leviathan the gliding serpent, Leviathan the coiling serpent; he will slay the monster of the sea."

 

"But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the earth and its works will be burned up. Since all these things are to be destroyed in this way, what sort of people ought you to be...."

MalteseFalcon's picture

The idea that Trump can't beat Hillary in a fair election is coming from the camp of 2% JEB!.  Nobody actually believes it.

It's just the latest in a flurry of 'stop Trump' gambits.

Trump would cream Hillary, Bernie and any of the 12 Republicans left and the American people know it.

Of course Trump will not be the Republican nominee, because as the softer options fail, more stringent measures will be applied.

JRobby's picture

Smug does not equal smart

The world according to me at the neighborhood party no doubt

NuTroll's picture

@Miles_Ahead I'm pretty sure Iced Tea could finish off John McCain at this point, but where did you read that?

NuTroll's picture

@Miles_Ahead I'm pretty sure Iced Tea could finish off John McCain at this point, but where did you read that?

Kayman's picture

"over a few drunk louts on NY Eve groping women"

Of course, if it were your wife or daughters that had some strangers penetrating their most intimate parts, you would be OK with that.

I think not.

Disgusting Billionaires do not preclude disgusting Neanderthals out of the Middle East. 

Miles Ahead's picture

Actually, it is the Europeans who have original Neanderthal DNA.  Not joking here, since you went there.

Yes, to answer your question, of course I'd be emotional too.  But if there is energy and inclination for a near revolution in Germany, it's going to be over my daughter and my wife?  Really?  And a few others?  When 25% <--- read buddy - are facing poverty?

Sorry, they are no more disgusting than counterpart European louts that - left un-policed - would have done the same and worse.  Check out Europe major cities on a Tue-Thu night when UEFA decides to put on a football game.  Ever heard of "ultras"?  Are they Neanderthal too?  (oh, I answered that already).

The 342 Billionaires are happy anger is directed at 100+- Arab boys, drunk in NYE.

BTW, this would have never happened in Syria. Police.

SuperRay's picture

Incredible.  So you're ok with someone raping or molesting your wife or daughter?  Have you been injecting flouride, or did you just undergo a vountary castration?  Touch my wife or daughter, and you are one dead motherfucker.

greenskeeper carl's picture

If I was one of those 25% of people in poverty, I think I would resent importing millions of third worlders who will live out their lives mooching off the welfare tit that would mean less goods and services available for my poverty stricken family. I would also resent them being given these services for free without ever paying into the system.

I would also resent the corrupt system set up by those billionaires you keep mentioning, as the entire EU and monetary system is corrupt to the core. As tough as this might be for you to wrap your head around, it actually is possible to dislike bit of those things at the same time. But those billionaires aren't out raping and assaulting the women, so yes, that would probably be of the most immediate concern - not bringing more of them in.

Caleb Abell's picture

Actually, sub-saharan blacks, such as the Yoruba in west Africa are pure homo sapien.

Europeans, Asians, and yes, Arabs retain some neanderthal DNA.  

The only difference is that Arabs also have a substantial amount of baboon DNA as proven by their social behavior.  In addition, Arab evolution has not been helped by marrying their daughters to their first cousins for the last 1400 years.

psychobilly's picture

"Actually, sub-saharan blacks, such as the Yoruba in west Africa are pure homo sapien."

Of all human populations (aka races), they are, gentically speaking, the closest to chimpanzees (Deka et al., Am. J. Human Genetics 56, pgs. 461-474, 1995).

Otherwise known as a hate fact.

They also have lower average IQs, higher levels of testosterone, and higher frequencies of the R2 and R3 variants of the MAOA gene aka the "warrior" gene.

When you combine these genetic characteristics with idiotic government policies that encourage the phenomenon of single motherhood (which in and of itself is extremely positively correlated with all sorts of social pathologies), you end up with a population that is -- on average -- much more prone to violent, predatory behavior.  The black homicide rate in the US is 20.8 per 100K.  For whites it's 1.86; more than an order of magnitude lower.

JRobby's picture

A shame really that you would defile this great album by using its cover as your avatar.

Perimetr's picture

In America these days, it is "unorthodox" to tell the truth if you run for President.

At least Trump says what he thinks, even if he is uninformed, opinionated, and ignorant.  Better any day than the incorrigible liars we get who will slit your throat for the chance to be a stooge for the deep state.

Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

Perimetr: In America these days, it is "unorthodox" to tell the truth

 

Agree. It starts by the title of this article. There’s only TWO polls that shows Trump ahead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Escrava Isaura's picture

 

 

You post highlight how uniformed, naive, and that you don’t get these US systems of hoarding and control of its population; all the while US being the best at it. Your post is a good example.

Second, you never read the article: A new poll shows that may be a miscalculation. According to a survey conducted by Washington-based Mercury Analytics, 20% of likely Democratic voters ….

crossroaddemon's picture

And you think he's actually saying what he thinks because... ??

You're far too trusting. Is the hedge really that desperate for a saviour?

Miles Ahead's picture

"The Hedge" is nowhere close to be a monolithic community.

Anyway we have our savior (sniff...).  He knows Judo, watch out.

Perimetr's picture

You think Trump is following a script given to him by some pollster-advisor?

I think he has a giant ego and lets loose every time he gets pissed off, which is often. Hell, I don't trust him, I don't trust any politician.

But I do enjoy watching all the assholes on MSM getting soo upset by his politically incorrect ways.

crossroaddemon's picture

It's all for show. They're not upset or he wouldn't be getting all this coverage. The medi is owned by the same people who pull Obama's strings.

And yes... i do believe it's all scripted.

Kayman's picture

Hey there Cross Troll

And HiLiary is your saviour ?  "Out, out damn smell- Bill why does that smell keep following me"

The Clintons have made it perfectly clear they will do anything for a price. Presidential material, my ass.

crossroaddemon's picture

Nope. I don't believe in political solutions. I do not consent to be governed, by Clinton or trump or anyone else.

IndyPat's picture

Do you believe that if you pull the covers over you head at night, that the monsters can't see you?

That's about the length of the "consent" argument.
I don't consent, either. The cartel doesn't seem to give a shit.

crossroaddemon's picture

It's a first step, man. we have to be clear about this... no victory in our lifetimes. It won't happen. But the first step is people en masse RECOGNIZING that there is no hope from within the system, and that in truth we have no voice at all. Without that recognition we can't even start a conversation about what to do about it. As long as people think they can fix things using the political process we can't discuss alternatives. It's time to start discussing those alternatives, and maybe this would be the right time which is why we're being fed a saviour figure in the form of chump. He talks tough and says things that play to people's base emotions so they fall right into lockstep. Mission accomplished.

JRobby's picture

You might want to trade your car in by driving it into an underground parking structure and have your car dealer meet you there. Buy it and register it using an LLC that is not registered to your name or SSN

orez65's picture

Trump ignorant?

1. When he asks what do we have to show for 15 years of war in the Middle East?

2. When he says that the US is broke?

3. When he says that if a nation wants us to defend them that they have to pay for it?

4. When he says that we don't have to admit immigrants?

5. When he says that our Southern Border is violated each and every day?

I think that the ignorant is you.

crossroaddemon's picture

He hasn't said one word about the govenment being run by banking cartels. Which is a way bigger probalem than any of the shit you just spouted. Wake me when he starts talking about destroying the ability of large concentrations of wealth to become power.

JRobby's picture

Ok, so you believe "The American Dream"?

Four chan's picture

paula jones, says trump 2016.

Skateboarder's picture

My [joke] candidate of choice, repping on the underside of my board:

http://oi67.tinypic.com/5qhjp.jpg

Come time, I'm gonna vote for Nobody For President, the ZHer.

JRobby's picture

Donald

Hillary

Maybe some things change

Nothing changes, it gets worse

 

Lot of choice

 

SWRichmond's picture

"Cut the head off of (the latest bad guy du jour, even if we created and continue to support it), (so that we can scare people, enrich the MIC, legislate away more freedom, and try to keep propped up this incredibly phony-baloney system we have and our phony-baloney jobs)."

You are right, nothing changes.

Bay of Pigs's picture

It is Wag the Dog in real life.

BullyBearish's picture

As you deride all of those hopeful starry-eyed voters of Obummer so you shall be derided for the absolute CLUSTER F*(k in store for us all if Shrump gets in...and this has NOTHING to do with Hitlery.

Welfare Tycoon's picture

What I would give to watch the Donald 3=====>SCHLONG<=====3 Clinton in a public debate. I'm pretty sure her head would explode from the overload of no-fucks-given, lack of PC your a fucking crimimal diatribe that would come out of his mouth. 

The problem with Hillary and the rest of her ilk is that they are used to trading blows with dance of words, where the Donald just comes in with a fucking hammer and whacks every motherfucking mole that comes pops up in his way. 

And to your point- while we may be at our lowest point so far as a nation, at least Trump actually provides some potential promise of a change in the status quo. Him and a VP like Rand Paul could actually do SOMETHING positive for the United States, unlike every single other candidate who would just run it right into the ground every single time they open their mouth or sign a bill (or veto it), kind of like our dear Magik Negrow.

Is Trump the end all be all?

No. 

But he is probably the best shot we have had in a long time for actually making some kind of change. While Ron Paul or Ross Perot had better policy, they never stood a chance because the MSM shuts them out. You cannot just shut out Trump though. He shuts you out!

Look at it the positive way. If Trump ends up turning his back on us like the rest, at least our Titanic will sink with a fucking circus playing for entertainment until the very end!

Occams_Chainsaw's picture

I was not intending to hate on Trump (though I can't stand Hitlery) but rather was commenting on the state of affiars these days.  It's all theater anyway.....it's just the cost of our tickets is astronomical.

Creepy Lurker's picture

Welfare and Occam,

I can't even comprehend why Hillary is still walking free at this point, and everyone is debating policy? Really?

http://observer.com/2016/01/hillarys-emailgate-goes-nuclear/

Where is the public outrage? WTF? Even more, WHY isn't this plastered all over? WHY isn't this on the lips and keyboards of everyone, everywhere? THAT'S a bigger scandal than the shit she actually did! Christ on a crutch, people, she ordered a staffer to "strip off the headers and send it to me" in refernce to classified material being sent to an illegal server in somebody's basement? 

Have we really fallen so far into banana republic world that no one is outraged? And this person is running for President? Fucking really????