Is A Massive Earthquake Inevitable In Oklahoma?
Submitted by Adny Tully via OilPrice.com,
When Americans speak of “the big one,” they’re talking about the potential for a super-massive earthquake that could essentially destroy most of quake-prone California. Now some scientists believe something similar could happen in the once geologically placid Oklahoma.
Oklahoma was shaken late Wednesday night by two of the strongest earthquakes to hit the state in recent years, the latest in a series of temblors that many researchers believe are caused by the burial of wastes from oil and gas drilling in the state.
The quakes struck 30 seconds apart and had magnitudes of 4.7 and 4.8 on the Richter scale. While considered light, both were centered directly beneath a region in northwestern part of the state near Fairview, Oklahoma, that produces significant amounts of oil and gas. The second temblor was the fourth-largest ever recorded in Oklahoma.
No injuries or damages were reported from Wednesday night’s quakes, but smaller events last week struck near Oklahoma City, shaking bricks from building facades, felled columns and caused a power blackout in suburban Edmond.
These and other recent earthquakes could be precursors to a much larger, more damaging event, according to some scientists.
"I do think there’s a really strong chance that Oklahoma will receive some strong shaking,” said Daniel McNamara, a research geophysicist at the National Earthquake Information Center in Colorado, who has studied Oklahoma’s earthquake history. “I’m surprised [Wednesday night’s quakes] didn’t rupture into a larger event.”
The frequency of earthquakes in Oklahoma has been rising for nearly a decade. Before 2008 there were fewer than two earthquakes in Oklahoma each year, on average. By 2010 the state had only three quakes with a magnitude of 3 or more, meaning their shaking is barely felt on the surface. In 2015, the number of such temblors had grown to 907.
Geologists say the reason is the way oil companies dispose of drilling waste. The water they use in drilling can’t be reused, so it must be discarded, usually injected deep below ground level. This water makes underlying rocks slippery, causing them to shift against one another, which sets off earthquakes.
The quakes have become something of a political issue in Oklahoma. Gov. Mary Fallin, who said she felt Wednesday night’s temblors, continued to express confidence in the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, which she said is the agency best suited to address the growing problem.
“I want to commend the Corporation Commission for being so active on this issue,” the Republican governor said Thursday. “It’s important that we understand that people are very, very concerned about this. I am too, and it’s important that we address the issue.”
But critics say the agency isn’t acting quickly enough. One who has been demanding more action is Democratic state representative Cory Williams, who said he believes the state Legislature needs to step in, though he adds that he doubts it will.
“Absent a catastrophic loss of life or property, there will be zero reaction from the Oklahoma House or Senate,” he said. “They don’t want to touch it. It’s a third rail.”
As for the ordinary people of Oklahoma, they just try to take everything in stride – the quakes as well as the political bickering.
“We just kind of adapt,” said one Fairview resident, Ronda Stucks. “Oklahomans are really good about adapting.”
(10 votes)
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Well if Hillary ever fell off the podium there...
Hitlery is magnitude 10 on the Rectum Scale.
I could go to Steve Quayle .com if I wanted to read this "fracking quakes turns into the end of the world" bullshit.
So Astroglide is bad for tectonic plates?
Gotcha.
It's interesting to see articles where new words are introduced. Tremblor is obviously not prominent in the vocabulary of most people and hence the reason the author probably selected the word. People tend to think using specific and/or unusual vocabulary conveys the title of expert when it really doesn't.
Best way for an Okie to adapt to this situation is to move.
Worked out real well for Tom Joad.
Worked out real well for Tom Joad.
We need to have scientists wear racing outfits with the logos of their corporate sponsors
Damn, that would be fucking scary. Really don't want to see her split. Front or rear.
"SCIENTIST", really. Sounds more like an undergrad trying on a thesis.
Its due to global warming, er... climate change....
At one time the "scientific consensus was the earth was the center of the universe and it was flat.... Yards yards yards yards... Ivory tower scientists with their fat salaries & pensions for doing nothing are just as useless as all the corrupt elected politician turds and the Gubmint bureacrats. Fukem all.
is there anything you do trust? Or are you like me...I don't even trust myself. I'm always doing and saying stupid stuff.
This Dan McNamara is one of the pointy heads trying to link every natural phenomenom to human activity. No threat is too small to hype and demand action. And yes, he is also on record cheerleading for global warming issues, and him and his Obama-voting buddies will be fully funded with grants and perks from the same crooks using the 'research' to come up with new taxes and social policy. Its all just one merry go round of cronyism that is cloaked under the noble title of science.
I have met more than 100 geologists in my career and not a single one of them buys into the global warming gasses myth. Not one. These people see millions of years of rock history that demonstrate exactly what the historical climate really is on this planet, and they are far more reputable scientists than the crooks who hang out behind some desk somewhere shilling for grant money.
And for the record, a mag-5 earthquake will hardly be noticed by most people. Preying on fears and taking advantage of the ignorane of the masses to advance a hidden agenda do not a scientist make. There is no integrity or honor among these people. Case in point: Note that creep Jagadish Shukla and his little financial windfall for doing humanity a favor to warn us all about global warming. These fucking crooks are running a scam and hiding behind fake science to bamboozle good people into action. Follow the money. If you see some leftist clown with an activist agenda against frakking, then somewhere behind the scenes there is a bag of money handed over.
I do not trust oil companies to do the right thing either. I think we need to be vigilant over pollution issues and make sure the public are protected from incompetence and cutting corners. I think best practices must be demanded and all regulators enforced. Bad actors need to be driven from the market place. Fair enough... But what we do NOT need is a band of hucksters that come out of the woodwork to attack an entire sector based on fake science and irresponsible alarmist rhetoric.
Its due to global warming, er... climate change....
At one time the "scientific consensus was the earth was the center of the universe and it was flat.... Yards yards yards yards... Ivory tower scientists with their fat salaries & pensions for doing nothing are just as useless as all the corrupt elected politician turds and the Gubmint bureacrats. Fukem all.
Wow the armchair geologists are out in full force this morning, I wonder how many have their GED...
Or maybe something as simple as the CSS - Common Sense Squad
Agreed. Lots of ignorant types dismissing this out of hand.
-Yes, increasing the risk factors for large Earthquakes is generally a bad thing.
-Yes, humanity's collective actions can have an effect on the Earth.
-Yes, the process of fossil fuel creation is/was Mother Earth's way of performing carbon sequestration. Burning the Fossil Fuels does this in reverse.
...amongst other things, of course.
Instead of the wording SCIENTIST we should exchange for "Professional Academic ". A SCIENTIST would be conservative only addressing the available facts. In this case not many. A Professional Academic would shoot their mouth off at every opportunity to gather attention, more students, funding, sell another book etc.
Most practicing geologists, including my son, agree with the assessment of the USGS that 1) disposal of fracking waste is causing earthquakes in OK and 2) a larger (mag > 5) quake is likely in OK sometime in the next few years because of this.
Oh my God I'm so afraid now for Oklahoma! I better go buy some stocks! Hurry before they're all gone!
Keep pumping that shit into the ground to push up the O&G. What is the worst that can happen............?
Its only the waste not the actual fracking.
Whatever you think you mean must be true in your mind
Lubricating fault lines and displacing things deep in the ground is going to have ramifications
Science is hard to grasp but pretty much settled on the matter, regardless of what your "common snese" tells you.
The only hypothesis I am getting from your post is that it is great to be you.
Have you ever tried chloroforming yourself?
Yeah, because Mother Nature didnt put that oil there in the first place, and as we all know, oil isnt much of a lubricant in those fault lines either. Its all man and evil oil companies to blame. Right?
Or do small earthquakes take the pressure off so a large earthquake is less likely to occur? But maybe that large earthquake was 300 years in the future.
Exactly. Smaller eathquakes are good if you are trying to avoid a big earthquake.
No. That's not how it works at all.
This is not a natural situation and the old addage of smaller earthquakes taking pressure off to lessen a larger one simply does not apply in the manner it does in a natural condition.
These quakes are not happening due to a natural release of pressures and are not due to pressures built up in the last 10 years. These quakes are happening because drillers are changing the conditions in the fault line under ground that causes the strata below to become unstable (when otherwise it would be very stable). The conditions no longer reflect the natural state that has existed for eons and the established methods to predict the likelyhood or magnitude of movements (or frequency) do not apply.
The quakes are not due to new or increased pressures due to normal natural forces but are due to the removal or decrease of the natural friction between rock faces. As they continue to remove more of the friction and make the ground layers more unstable you get some smaller reactions as the instability increases. Danger is that the removal of the friction moves the majority of the stresses to the remaining areas resisting major movements. Then finally you decrease the friction area resisting movement so much that major movement occurs. Instead of releasing pressure (although a small portion is released) you have removed resistance and the stresses are now more concentrated.
While typically at the point of major movement the degree of movement is quickly contained or localized due to the friction that still remains in the surrounding strata and resistance ot movement occurs and equalizes the forces. However, in this case the lubrication of the rock in a very wide area(s) does not allow such activation of new frictional resistance in the surrounding rock and the movements continue even further.
Traditional earthquake theory no longer applies. Traditional theory of how equalibrium will be restored and the degree of potential movement no longer applies. You also have to be worried about how the fracking has, as it is called, fractured the rock or broken the rock up. Making it less able to resist lateral movements or to act as a large single bonded material (which increased the surface movement experienced).
That is not reassuring. Is this far enough away from New Madrid?
Maybe this will help those living in the area be more comfortable.
Structural design of the commercial structures and buildings in the region includes design for wind and earthquake. The lateral forces predicted for earthquake were based upon the likelyhood of a major quake and the amount of movement such a quake would involve. The amount of movement and acceleration predicted determines the lateral (horizontal) forces designed for.
Since the underground conditions no longer reflect the natural geologic conditions used to establish design forces, the lateral design of the structures and buildings in the region may very well be inadaquate.
Given the report in the article of masonry being dislodged and columns collapsing in a 4+ quake, clearly the building design regulations are woefully inadequate.
In any quake with half decent lateral acceleration any double brick buildings or brick chimneys will be deadly. And its worth noting Peak Ground Acceleration is not determined by magnitude (ie: you don't need a huge quake to experience high PGA).
What are the implicatioins for underground natural gas, LP, Diesel and Gasoline pipelines to the rest of the country?
A disruption of natural gas and LP = cold house. Disruption of diesel = disruption of food deliveries. Disruption of gasoline = disruption of labor.
Take your pick, Will an Oklahoma or a New Madrid event cause ruptures of buried pipelines?
Thanks, lots of good info. Now lets direct our attention to that shit they spray in the sky.
given a swarm of small quakes presage larger ones, no...
The big one will probably be financial rather than seismic.
If you have all of your gold, silver and ammo in a safe and a hole opens up under your house and your safe goes down it, you are fucked.
Going to leave this here...
I guess god just isn't getting the job done in OK with tornados and trailer parks.
If the tornadoes would hit the welfare parts of the state, instead of blue collar communities, we'd be in better shape.
Lately, the largest quakes have been occuring about 100 miles away from Cushing. Others have been in the 20 to 100 mile plus range. Info for the oil bugs.
Last year there where 4.5 mag quakes directly underneath Cushing. One can never tell. These are VERY shallow quakes as well.
I designed a tank farm in Cushing several years ago. The typical design standard for containment is one tank rupture + a 100-YR storm. If more than one tank ruptures, the product goes to the nearest low point---usually a creek.
These recent quakes have been small enough, and frequent enough, that they are mostly considered a novelty, albeit one that you can't predict with any certainty like a tornado.
With regards to structural damage, the typical design standard has been LRFD for quite a while, and has a factor of safety inherent in that method. However, the old buildings, just like anywhere else, will be subject to damage. So, if we do see a significant quake here, there will obviously be quite a lot of damage. Our governor will declare a state of emergency to make getting FEMA emergency funds easier, and the people here will pick up, rebuild and continue on with their lives. With regards to weather, this is a fairly adversarial, and harsh environment. Summers can be hot as Hell, and we aren't immune to blizzards, through we normally get ice storms.
What worries me a little is a high hazard dam failure with a significant enough earthquake. I redid about a 100-FT tall dam a few years ago that a hurricane almost washed away. Had that failed, I-40 would have washed away, and a small city downstream would have received significant damage.
Will the next Iben Browning please shut up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iben_Browning
All I see is that the strain on the crustal rocks way down below is being slowly eased by the series of many small earthquakes. There is not going to be a 'big one' as the strain does not have the time to build. That and the simple fact that scientists have never accurately predicted an earthquake ever in history...
No. That is not how it works.
How does it work?
Then please enlighten me on 'how it works'. Are you saying that an earthquake fault that, say, just broke during a moderate earthquake, is then immediately ready to cause an even more powerful quake??? I am pretty sure that is not how it works.