Is A Massive Earthquake Inevitable In Oklahoma?

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Submitted by Adny Tully via OilPrice.com,

When Americans speak of “the big one,” they’re talking about the potential for a super-massive earthquake that could essentially destroy most of quake-prone California. Now some scientists believe something similar could happen in the once geologically placid Oklahoma.

Oklahoma was shaken late Wednesday night by two of the strongest earthquakes to hit the state in recent years, the latest in a series of temblors that many researchers believe are caused by the burial of wastes from oil and gas drilling in the state.

The quakes struck 30 seconds apart and had magnitudes of 4.7 and 4.8 on the Richter scale. While considered light, both were centered directly beneath a region in northwestern part of the state near Fairview, Oklahoma, that produces significant amounts of oil and gas. The second temblor was the fourth-largest ever recorded in Oklahoma.

No injuries or damages were reported from Wednesday night’s quakes, but smaller events last week struck near Oklahoma City, shaking bricks from building facades, felled columns and caused a power blackout in suburban Edmond.

These and other recent earthquakes could be precursors to a much larger, more damaging event, according to some scientists.

"I do think there’s a really strong chance that Oklahoma will receive some strong shaking,” said Daniel McNamara, a research geophysicist at the National Earthquake Information Center in Colorado, who has studied Oklahoma’s earthquake history. “I’m surprised [Wednesday night’s quakes] didn’t rupture into a larger event.”

The frequency of earthquakes in Oklahoma has been rising for nearly a decade. Before 2008 there were fewer than two earthquakes in Oklahoma each year, on average. By 2010 the state had only three quakes with a magnitude of 3 or more, meaning their shaking is barely felt on the surface. In 2015, the number of such temblors had grown to 907.

Geologists say the reason is the way oil companies dispose of drilling waste. The water they use in drilling can’t be reused, so it must be discarded, usually injected deep below ground level. This water makes underlying rocks slippery, causing them to shift against one another, which sets off earthquakes.

The quakes have become something of a political issue in Oklahoma. Gov. Mary Fallin, who said she felt Wednesday night’s temblors, continued to express confidence in the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, which she said is the agency best suited to address the growing problem.

“I want to commend the Corporation Commission for being so active on this issue,” the Republican governor said Thursday. “It’s important that we understand that people are very, very concerned about this. I am too, and it’s important that we address the issue.”

But critics say the agency isn’t acting quickly enough. One who has been demanding more action is Democratic state representative Cory Williams, who said he believes the state Legislature needs to step in, though he adds that he doubts it will.

“Absent a catastrophic loss of life or property, there will be zero reaction from the Oklahoma House or Senate,” he said. “They don’t want to touch it. It’s a third rail.”

As for the ordinary people of Oklahoma, they just try to take everything in stride – the quakes as well as the political bickering.

“We just kind of adapt,” said one Fairview resident, Ronda Stucks. “Oklahomans are really good about adapting.”

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Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:08 | 7029413 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Smaller quakes could move the fault/add strain elsewhere to a an area already locked-up causing a much larger break..

 

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:10 | 7029440 arbwhore
arbwhore's picture

The forces involved in a big quake are so big that it would take 100 mag 4 quakes to equal the energy of one 6. Its like sliding 2 pieces of sandpaper together, lots of little crackles but not near enough to overcome a large slip and each little slip just builds up pressure elsewhere on the paper.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 14:19 | 7030758 Master Toms Dog
Master Toms Dog's picture

Just licking the mouse and before I chew off the cord -- wouldn't the reduction in friction advance the main earthquake's timetable?  That would slightly reduce the magnitude due to less strain build-up.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 10:48 | 7029286 CHoward
CHoward's picture

They're good at adapting?!  They good at being damn sheep being led to slaughter. 

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 10:48 | 7029288 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Pending Volcano?

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 10:52 | 7029311 GhostOfDiogenes
GhostOfDiogenes's picture

Or....it could be caused by fracking.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/31673-frackquake-madness-35-fracking-...

The right winger bible babblers love their dino goo investments tho.

So they blame the messenger.

Same as it ever was.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 10:53 | 7029319 commie
commie's picture

The problem is over regulation. Everybody knows that. 

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 10:56 | 7029335 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Meanwhile, the whole "Ring of Fire" is shaking and nobody says a word. In the last few months, the ground has shook all along the West Coast and Nevada. And yes, even in Oregon - site of no fracking - yet has had 245 measurable quakes in the past month.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:03 | 7029379 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Try to visit this site once a day> https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/videos <  and watch when coronal holes pass by earth and the resulting quakes that are produced.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:39 | 7030037 The Saint
The Saint's picture

I drove through a neighborhood that supposedly had one of those but didn't feel any earth quakes.  Maybe she was out shopping or something at the time.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:38 | 7029665 Onan_the_Barbarian
Onan_the_Barbarian's picture

Lots of words have been said about the Ring of Fire.

But what's happening in OK is very, very unusual.

 

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:01 | 7029360 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The Yellowstone Caldera is the "big one" we need to worry about.

California can lose some skyscrapers and freeways; but if the Midwest can't grow food half the world will starve.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:21 | 7029534 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

That would definitely qualify as the Big One, but let's not forget the New Madrid fault, about 20 times larger than the San Andreas. St. Louis and Memphis will be rubble if this one lets go. A New Madrid quake in 1811 was the largest ever experienced in North America---church bells rang in Boston!

http://www.new-madrid.mo.us/index.aspx?nid=132

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:33 | 7029991 Jethro
Jethro's picture

Memphrica already is rubble.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:02 | 7029363 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

I live in OK The people here no different than anywhere else except friendly. I have lived all over the country born in Boston and if you live in the northeast shut the fuck up yall are the RUDEST people I have ever seen as well as sociably unacceptable. Now to the eartquakes when a fault line runs through it eventually your gonna have a BIG ONE. Duh

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:34 | 7029633 zipit
zipit's picture

Ok, Barney, take it easy

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 13:18 | 7030323 Arnold
Arnold's picture

(Have him take the bullet out of his gun, Andy.)

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:04 | 7029384 Being Free
Being Free's picture

"Geologists say the reason is the way oil companies dispose of drilling waste. The water they use in drilling can’t be reused, so it must be discarded, usually injected deep below ground level. This water makes underlying rocks slippery, causing them to shift against one another, which sets off earthquakes."

Like the water is slipperier than the oil?

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:22 | 7029537 Blankone
Blankone's picture

It is not just water.  It is a special mix that is developed to moved easily throught the small fisures in the rock.  And it is injected at very high pressures.

And then you have the obvious.  The area historicly has not had these movements until fracking and injections began.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:24 | 7029550 PresidentCamacho
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There was an a military study done on the feasibility of fracking in oklahoma after wwII, they said that it would produce earthquakes.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:52 | 7029750 PresidentCamacho
PresidentCamacho's picture

There was an a military study done on the feasibility of fracking in oklahoma after wwII, they said that it would produce earthquakes.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:25 | 7029945 Pyrrhus
Pyrrhus's picture

Sort of. What you are referring to is flow back, which is the product of the frac. However, over the life of the well, it is produced water that comprises the vast majority of the disposed water over the life of a well. This water is briny, but would contain, at most, traces of the chemicals from the frac. It naturally occurs in the producing formations.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:06 | 7029834 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Fracking in OK began in the 50's.  The first operation was by the Belle Isle Library in OKC. 

I've seen the seismograph of that 1st frack well courtesy a cousin who's a geophysicist.

The problem is the injection wells, not the fracking.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 15:49 | 7031308 still kicking
still kicking's picture

It is actually injected much deeper than the extracted in completely different wells.  In Oklahoma they dispose down in the Arbuckle formation which is much, much deeper than anything produced and  to be honest not a whole hell of a lot is known about it.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:07 | 7029411 buzzardsluck
buzzardsluck's picture

No it's pronounced AD-ny not AN-dy.  This guy probably since he learned to talk.

 

Other than a few big cracks that weren't around before who would even know a big quake hit OK?

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:15 | 7029479 Mr. Cynic
Mr. Cynic's picture

I think the "Big One" won't be in OK, it will be up in Oregon, soon.

OK will just sink one day.  Slurp! Gulp! Gone!

Just my opinion.  =)

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:32 | 7029621 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Injection of non-compressible liquids into deep strata always causes earthquakes. Hopefully, those tanks holding 70 million barrels of crude and refined products at Cushing will be able to withstand the repeated shaking they're getting - else the oil price might change abruptly.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:52 | 7029749 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Best handled by...

Respectfully decline...

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060029814

Waste greases the plates, money greases the palms.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:54 | 7029761 Grimaldus
Grimaldus's picture

I'm calling bullshit on the quake frequency numbers presented here. I bought property in Oklahoma and before I did I surveyed the geology. The central portion of Oklahoma has been shaking like jello for a long time.

 

 

 

Grimaldus

 

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:15 | 7029893 arbwhore
arbwhore's picture

No, it hasn't. Look at the earthquake history of OK. Relatively quiet until fracking waste disposal started a few years ago.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 15:59 | 7031374 still kicking
still kicking's picture

the fracking waste disposal is nothing compared to the produced water, educate yourself.  If an Oklahoma mississippi lime well took 1,000,000 gallons to frack it would produce about 5,000 barrels of water per day or 157,000 gallons per day in 10 days you've produced more natural water (briny and completely unuseable) than you used to frac the well.  

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 11:56 | 7029782 EcoJoker
EcoJoker's picture

The quakes have become something of a political issue in Oklahoma. Gov. Mary Fallin, who said she felt Wednesday night’s temblors, continued to express confidence in the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, which she said is the agency best suited to address the growing problem.

 

CAUSE GOVT COMMISSIONS ARE SO GOOD AT PROTECTING

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:31 | 7029978 rejected
rejected's picture

“Oklahomans are really good about adapting.” and swallowing...

Pretty well explains why we're where we are today...


Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:34 | 7030003 Carrib
Carrib's picture

Oklahoma is less likely to have a "massive earthquake than either California or Alaska.  Go to http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/  in order to see recent earthquake history. Set the "settings"  (that wheel-like icon in the upper right corner) to adjust the time period and the earthquake intensity filter.  You will find that there is less activity in Oklahoma than in California and there is a little less activity in Oklahome than in the Dominican Republic/Puerto Rico area.  FYI -- Be more concerned about earthquakes that are more than a few miles below the surface.

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 12:57 | 7030180 logos5
logos5's picture

What a crock of shit

Mon, 01/11/2016 - 16:20 | 7031526 UrbanBard
UrbanBard's picture

There are few places in the world which don't experience minor earthquakes, occasionally. A 4.5 to 5 earthquake on the Richter scale is considered minor. Most of the earthquakes in Oklahoma are 3 to 3.5 which can be mistaken for a heavy dump truck passing on the road outside. 

Real damage does not occur until you experience a 6.0 or higher. Those tend to occur in fault zones. Does Oklahoma has a major fault? Yes. It run diagonally across the south east corner of the state. Also, one of the major fault is less than 250 miles away at New Madrid, Missouri.

The USGS shows moderate earthquake area in the south center of the state. Live with it. It is no where as dangerous as living in any part of California or Nevada. If you want to avoid even minor earthquakes move south of Dallas/ Ft. Worth.

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