The (Uncensored) 2016 State Of The Union
Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Tomorrow night, the President Obama will deliver his final annual “State Of The Union” address. Just recently, the President gave a preview of his upcoming speech from the White House.
While Obama promises to frame his speech around the “things we need to do over the years to come,” he will use his bully pulpit to focus on his record of achievements (especially those related to the environment and trade) and push for further restrictions on gun ownership.
With the 2016 Presidential Election fast approaching, this is one of the final chances the White House will have to give a boost to the Democratic voters following the beating they took in the 2012 mid-term elections. The message sent then, even by traditionally Democratic states which elected conservative representatives, was of a broad loss of faith in “hope and change.”
For the Democratic party, it is imperative to regain those votes. It is from this priority that the President will paint a decisively positive economic picture during his upcoming speech. He hopes that by pointing to a falling unemployment rates, economic growth and higher confidence levels; it will give voters a sense of confidence in the President’s accomplishments.
The question is whether the majority of the voting public will agree with the President’s message?
Before the President takes to the podium with his bullish optimism, he might want to consider the following charts.
Government Debt
Since 2009, Government debt has surged by $7.75 Trillion and by the end of the next budget cycle will approach $20 Trillion in total. The problem is that during the current Presidential term, real economic growth has risen by just $2.08 Trillion. However, even this number is inaccurate as the current government debt levels do not include other liabilities of the government such as social security and other social welfare programs.
The following chart quantifies it a bit better when you look at cumulative increases in debt and real, inflation adjusted, GDP.
Yes, the economy is growing, however, that growth has come at a huge cost of a debt burden that will be amplified if borrowing costs rise with increases in interest rates. Furthermore, considering that President Obama admonished the previous administration’s increase in debt, the explosion in the amount of debt required to generate economic growth (currently $3.71) is unsustainable longer term.
Employment
The President will address the recent employment report and point to a 5.0% unemployment rate as evidence that the economy “is back.” While the current Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports do currently show the unemployment rate at 5.0%, that number is obfuscated by the more than 93 million workers that are currently not counted as part of the labor force.
As I have discussed many times previously, when it comes to economic strength it is full-time labor that leads to household formation and higher consumption.
Furthermore, the rate of employment must be faster than the rate of population growth, otherwise, you are just treading water. The chart below shows the amount of full-time labor as a ratio of the working age population.
Currently, 49.23% of the population is employed full-time which is a rate lower than when the President entered office. Furthermore, as noted above, the employment ratios are deceiving when you realize that the population has grown faster than employment leaving a rising number of individuals no longer counted as part of the labor force.
Importantly, when the employment-to-population ratio or the labor-force participation rate is discussed, the plunging levels in these ratios are often dismissed simply as a function of the “baby boomers” heading into retirement. However, if we factor out those individuals by only looking at the employee-to-population ratio of 16-54 aged individuals as a percent of that age group the picture fails to improve.
While the unemployment rate has certainly plunged to just 5.0%, one would be hard pressed to find 95.0% of the population that “wants to work,” actually working.
Personal Incomes
The annual rate of change in personal incomes has been on a decline since the turn of the century. This is a function of both the structural shift in employment (higher productivity = less employment and lower wage growth) and the drive to increase corporate profitability in the midst of weaker consumption.
The chart below shows the disparity between corporate profits and employment and wages.
While corporate profitability has surged since the financial crisis, those profits have come at the expense of employees. Since 2009, wages for “non-supervisory employees,” which is roughly 80% of the current workforce has been on a steady decline.
The problem with this, of course, is that the real cost of living continues to rise.
Government Assistance
Of course, the issue of declining incomes and rising “income inequality” is really best shown by the level of social benefits as a percentage of disposable incomes today. Today, roughly 1-in-3 households receive some form of government assistance.
It is here that the President will be most challenged in presenting his “economic” story. While he will point to rising asset prices, improved headline employment numbers and economic growth as reasons to be “optimistic,” with almost 80% of the country living roughly paycheck-to-paycheck it will be a hard argument to win.
Housing
When it comes to the economy, it is home ownership that is the reflection of economic well-being. Since 2009, the government has poured trillions of taxpayer dollars into the housing market to try and increase activity. The effect of those injections has been marginal to say the least.
However, as I stated above, it is ultimately household formation that leads to higher levels of consumption and stronger economic growth. The current recovery, as shown by the chart below, was NOT driven by individuals buying homes to live in, but rather speculators buying homes, primarily for cash, and turning them into rentals. With homeownership currently near its lowest levels since the early 1980’s, it does not suggest a resurgent economy is in the making.
Economic Prosperity
However, it is the economic prosperity of an individual that truly determines how they will vote at the polls. A recent Fed Reserve survey of consumer finances shows the real disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street economics.
With net worth, incomes, financial assets and business equity ownership at levels substantially below where they were when the President took office, it is not surprising that the Administration is focused on trying to justify their record.
While the data, as reported by government agencies, has been massaged, tweaked, and recalibrated to provide more optimistic output, it is hard to fudge the economic standards by which the majority of the country lives with. Like a game of “Civilization,” the recent mid-term elections sent a pretty clear message that the “serfs” are not happy in the “kingdom.”
Defining The State Of The Union
While the President will do his best to put a positive spin on the current economic environment, and the success of his policies, when he gives his “State of the Union” address, it would be worth remembering whom he is actually addressing.
It is also worth considering that much of this is likely the reason that Donald Trump is surging in Conservative polling.
As with all things – it is the lens from which you view the world that defines what you see. For Wall Street, things could not be better. For Main Street, most everything could be better. The President has a lot of “convincing” to do if he expects to change voter’s attitudes between now and the 2016 Presidential election.
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No one will watch it but the ones that would vote for Hillary even if they saw vids of her clubing baby seals and selling baby parts.
I've not seen that asshat on TV since virtually his inauguration, excepting the occasional walk past a bar TV when he was on. No one I know would leave the TV on if he was talking, no one I know believes anything he says nor do they give a shit what he thinks. This speach is another nothing burger.
Now is that any way to speak about the leader of the Free (shit for everyone) world......?
If my staunch liberal mind wasn't so polluted with MSM propaganda, I'd start thinking Obongo was a fraud from the get go.
Don't forget, Obama's election was the moment that:
"we began to provde care for the sick"
"we began to provide jobs for the jobless."
"that the rise of the oceans began to slow."
"our planet began to heal."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2pZSvq9bto
LOL... so hilarious..
1) We never neglected the sick before, instead government protectionism and FDA collusion on drugs had priced out the poor
2) We always provided jobs for the jobless, whenever government failed to restrict us from doing so.
3) The oceans have been rising naturally since the last ice age, we adapt.
4) The planet is nearly at world-war-3...
LOLOL... who voted for this asshole?
The "Presidential Selection Committee"; they are selected and never elected since 1913 or before. How the hell could Hillary be in the race and she will win IF we have another selection.
The more I watch Trump the more I believe he was selected to be a major distraction and Obama will be the Dictator. (Puke)
That has been my working theory as well on Trump except I expect Hillary to win the rigged election. I suppose Martial Law and Obama staying on wouldnt surprise me either.
At any rate, we are truly fucked.
All yall quit yer bitchin. No one except Obama could have held this shit show together for 7 years. It looks like we'll be the the last country to implode, which is really all you could ask for. I'm voting for Trump so we can finally see this sucker go down and start rebuilding. TRUMP/RESET 2016.
Obozo is an actor who has achieved nothing. He's an empty suit who thinks when he talks that everyone believes his bullshit...he has not yet figured out that he has lost any speck of credibility with all but the most ardent progressive idealogues...also known as Libtards. His charade is abut to end as will his failures when his Executive Orders are repealed by the next (Republican) president who will additionally move to end Obamacare as weknow it (and replace it with something better for all). Obama is a legend in his own mind. He was a fabricated candidate who was elected based of a false persona manufactured for the election. People have figured it out and the majority of people who still believe in the American way of doing things realize that he is totally un-American and is trying to change who we are at the core. The only good news is that the more he drives his left wing agenda to destroy America as we know it, the more voters abandon him and the Democratic Party...fully 20% of Democrats now say they will vote for Trump. Go figure. Also, what's going to happen when Hillary is indicted or gets beat by Bernie? Here are some words for Obama,"You reap what you sow."
I might have an ounce of respect for this guy if he would use his last SOTU speech to tell everybody how much he hates America, especially white America, and even more especially white middle-class America. I don't think he will admit his true feelings, but I am sure he will lie A LOT.
Remember Double Speak. This CEO head of the Criminal Fraud UNITED STATES, CORP. INC. is a master manipulator, Psychopath / Sociopath.
Read between the lines as his message will be interpreted one way for the Sheep & another for The Global Criminal Oligarch Cabal Bankster Intelligence Crime Syndicate.
Puurleeze, let's not get sidetracked back into all the red team/blue team (aka divide and conquer) BS. The fact is, it makes no difference who gets elected because the Oligarchs control the totally corrupt and broken "Political system". And until we disband the Fed and introduce a new financial system, one not based on "Debt Money", nothing is going to change for we the people.
Obama tells of economy: "We now having recovery and the growth sustained and ...... guns are bad, m'kay?"
When he says growth, he is alluding to the cancerous rot devouring what little vitality is left in America. Makes sense now eh........
Take away all the gun and ammo sales and he wouldn't have been able to sustain the economic lie; won't matter when he declares martial law as we are in the reset and the grand finally is a day closer.
Let me guess the speech will be its Bushes fault,your all rascists and you are not worthy of my greatness
That would be his thoughts; not what the teleprompter will tell him to say.
Barry and beer will make you sicker that "beer on liquor". You are a patriot if you were able to control yourself.
I watched video of his first campaign in the movie "Killing Them Softly", juxtaposed with a plot about seedy hoods and a professional hitman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UzPdUzygvE
Why watch it when you can listen to the left media tell you how wonderful he is doing dispite the collapsing economy.
I would rather toast a loaf of bread in the bathtub than listen to a speech by this windbag, or listen to the blowhard "pundits" analyze a speech by this windbag.
No one will watch it but the ones that would vote for Hillary even if they saw vids of her clubing baby seals and selling baby parts.
Pretty much the truest comment I have ever seen and a constant source of wonder. Some people just really love it when certain people lie right to their face. Amazing
I am certain that most Hillary followers aren't much above this level of maturity:
http://www.harpercollins.com/9780062381224/hillary-rodham-clinton-some-g...
Meanwhile, if you have a kid there are much better children's books:
http://tuttletwins.com/creature/
If you're doing a drinking game and you draw "I" or "me," have your affairs in order before tomorrow night.
Personally, I can't wait to hear what he has to say about all his promises:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2pZSvq9bto
How the media influences "low information" voters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_JJLLfTR8I (A basic test to Obama voters)
What is worse are the ones that know the answer and still voted for Obama; like my father in law who ironically escaped communism and immigrated (legally) to the US.
I hope Trump has a live Twitter Feed during it, cause I can't stomach watching the cocksucking narcissist.
I've taken to playing solo bearpaw during these stomach churning events:
http://www.mandatory.com/2012/09/25/11-crazy-foreign-drinking-games/10
The trick is to watch the SOTO lke a commercial: Mute the audio and put in any words you want.
I'm hoping Trump's first state of the union goes like this:
"We're fucked, the only way past such a situation is to stop acting like victims. Get to work. Have a nice evening." *walks away from the podium*
nuubee
I'm hoping Trump's first state of the union goes like this:
"We're fucked, the only way past such a situation is to stop acting like victims. Get to work. I have some people to jail. Have a nice evening." *walks away from the podium*
There fixed it
Is this not the change you were looking for? My bad.........
Now watch the next president raise the debt by a "modest" 20 trillion over 4 years.
Follow the money. Every major book taking bets on the election has Hillary as heavy favorite. Example the book I use has the following odds:
Hillary Clinton 8/11
Marco Rubio 5/1
Donald Trump 6/1
Bernie Sanders 12/1
Jeb Bush 20/1 etc.
No one is even close to Clinton. Sucks but I think this is a done deal. Even if they have to rig the vote counters.
RBS has just said sell everything except for high quality bonds,could tommorow be when the Kosher-Nostra throw the Barack out with the bathwater??????????
Oh, that wacky Hillary!
http://observer.com/2016/01/hillarys-emailgate-goes-nuclear/
Feel the Bern ;-)
Success on the environment? He failed at Copenhagen. Twice. Once for failing at climate agreement and once for Chicago Olympics.
THe State Of the Union.
Obama should turn off the teleprompter and make it short & sweet:
"I am an imposter, a mountebank, a rank poseur - my life is a lie, an outright fraud. I am a marionette, operated by the dark-side. My "achievments" are unabashedly their agenda.. which is now codified in law!"
"We never thought it would be so easy - yet you elected me twice... so who's really to blame? Me or you? Or did we deserve each other? Did you always have a secret death-wish?"
I doubt he could ever be that perceptive :)
Obama doesn't want Hillary to be president for whatever reason. When Obama ran for his second term Bill Cliton campaigned for him. Bill assumed Obama would support Hillary. When Obama said no....Bill threw a fit. Actually he said he was going to support Michelle for president. I still think Obama and his supporters are going to try for a grass roots movement to draft him for a third term. If that don't work.....expect ww3 to start and martial law imposed. One other option would be like he said "Michelle" I can not see him leaving peaceably. The man has a serious ego problem.
No he doesn't want Hillary! She's not a "pure Marxist" like Plan B Bernie (she's just a Crony-Criminal, wholly untrustworthy in carrying Karls torch), so I've made up my mind I'm gonna help him along (he and Bernie) whenever I can, so they can then go deep into their bench and select Plan C.
Which is, Crazy Uncle Joe ;-)
Hmm. Bush destroyed the US economy. He handed a country in ruins to Obama but Obama sucks?
So ZH.....
lmao!...Bush's Fault!
What, have you been hiding under a rock for seven years? Those last seven years was the last chance for neo-Keynesian Marxism to really shine and it fell flat on it's face.
Again.
"
Destroyed, yes.
Handed, yes. Since seven years now Obama the ruins petrol pours on and sets alight.
If remembers 1970-ies saturday mornings US children television song Conjunctions Junctions and then here on real life applies the lesson:
"and Obama sucks."
And what? I asking this is participle dangling or something? Can tell is not able, never saw saturday mornings US children television song of topic participles. Enlighten please.
Enlighten: People here are mostly right wing doomers who blame Obama for everything probably because he's biracial.
In fact Obama pulled the US out of Iraq and his government brought the country out of the biggest recession since 1930 but people here give out because it's not as good ad when Bush destroyed it......
State of the Unicorn
State of the Union
Well hey on Twitter today the White House changed their Icon to a "snapchat" icon, not kidding to promote this speech...shame White House is all wrapped up in virtual values and not the real world and we all suffer.
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/03/virtual-worlds-real-world-we-have.html
I didn't think there could be a worse president than Bush Jr, but Obama proved me wrong.
OK the market can now fall on its face. Chair Janet and the Riggers pulled every stop to prevent The Big Slide BEFORE his Big Speech.
obola's state of the union speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZL3ofreuQo