Arthur Berman: Why The Price Of Oil Must Rise
Submitted by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,
Geologist Arthur Berman explains why today's low oil prices are not here to stay, something investors and consumers alike should be very aware of. The crazy-low prices we're currently experiencing are due to an oversupply created by geopolitics and (historic) easy credit, not by sustainable economics.
And when the worm turns, we are more likely than not to experience a sudden supply shortfall, jolting prices viciously higher. This will be a situation not soon resolved, as the lag time for new production to come on-line will be much longer than the world wants:
The same things that always drive prices in the end it’s always about fundamentals. The markets are peculiar and they change every day. But the fundamentals of supply and demand at some point markets come back to those and have to adjust accordingly. Not on a daily basis, maybe not even on a monthly basis. But eventually they get it right. So this oil price collapse is really straight forward as far as I can tell, and it has to do with cheap stupid money because of artificially low interest rates that resulted in over-investment in oil -- as well as lots of other commodities that are not in my area of specialty, but that’s what I see. And over-investment led to over-production and eventually over-production swamped the market with too much supply and the price has to go down until we work our way through the excess supply.
Now the wrinkle in all of this is that because the supply excess/surplus was generated by debt and a lot of correlative instruments, the problem is that the companies and the countries that are doing all this over-production need to keep generating cash flow so they can service the debt, which means they have to continue producing pretty much at the highest levels they possibly can which doesn’t really allow very much room for reducing the surplus. So that’s piece number one and then there’s the demand side. So the thing that drove all of this over investment and over production were high prices. And after a while people get tired of high prices and we see a phenomenon called demand destruction or you know as Jamie Galbraith calls it the choke chain effect. You know your dog runs out on a leash, eventually you know it stops and he chokes and so we’re dealing with that. People have changed their behavior because of high prices and then we add to the fact that people just change their behavior. I mean young people aren’t driving as much as they used to, they spend their time in a – you know on a smart phone more than they do in a car. We’ve got climate change issues. There’s considerable momentum toward cutting back on fossil fuels. Add it all together, demand is down, supply is up, it’s a bad situation...
We started this conversation with your important observation that we’re only talking about a million or million and a half barrels a day of oversupply. So we could go from over-supply to deficit pretty quickly, because we’re not investing in finding that additional couple of million barrels a day that we need to be discovering. So we’re deferring major, major investments. We’re not just deferring exploration; we’re deferring development of proven reserves. Capital cuts across the world represent 20 billion barrels of development of known proven reserves. And so we will get to a point, and we will, we most certainly will, where suddenly everybody wakes up and says “Oh my God we don’t have enough oil! We’re now half million barrels a day low." And what will happen? The price will shoot up. That’s the way commodity markets work. And everybody will say “Whoopee! Let’s get back to drilling big time." Well there’s a big lag. There’s a huge time lag between when the price responds and people actually get around to drilling and they actually start bringing the oil onto the market and it becomes available as supply, because they’ve been asleep at the wheel for you know for how many months or years. And so you know you can’t just turn a valve and all of a sudden everything is okay again
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Arthur Berman (56m:07s)
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So if we go back to $4.00 a gal. gas we will all be better off. Stop harshing my mellow.
This analysis applies just as well to gold...
"And when the worm turns, we are more likely than not to experience a sudden supply shortfall, jolting prices viciously higher."
That's exactly what Turd says.
Consider the source.
Berman is an associate editor of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin, and was a managing editor and frequent contributor to theoildrum.com. He is a Director of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, and has served on the boards of directors of The Houston Geological Society and The Society of Independent Professional Earth Scientists. He worked 20 years for Amoco (now BP) and 16 years as consulting geologist. He has an M.S. (Geology) from the Colorado School of Mines and a B.A. (History) from Amherst College.
The worm turns when :
1° Saud stops its "Max.production at any cost" Oligarchy mantra.
AS low cost producer it kills all others as well as itself.
2° When the Debt bubble subsides we can invest more in low marginal cost renewables and its perennial stockage.
But more interesting is the impending DECISION MADE BY THE US TO INCREASE THE LIFETIME OF ITS 99 NUCLEAR existing REACtors to 80 YEARS !
Some turn around since three mile Island and China syndrome!
looks like the input to that decision is being publicly heard on 21 - 22 Jan:
http://meetings.nrc.gov/pmns/mtg?do=details&Code=20151755
http://meetings.nrc.gov/pmns/mtg?do=details&Code=20151760
This was done to fleece the people or recapitalize the banks.
Demand for liquids grew by 1.8 mbd in 2015.
It's called collusion & deep capture.
EIA right in the middle.
This guy is answering the question I have kept asking for over a
year on this board...
The state of oversupply is 1-1.5million bbl/day... or around 1.5-2%...
If the economy is declining, while demand still sails near production peaks,
then the probability that oil ( and other asset ) prices will "boom" is very
real. Demand today is not just the USA. The entire world is still making
demands on resources now...
Ah but thats were the "marketers" step in. The reality the oil industry lets on is not reality. The demand is falling and we've hit peak consumption a long long time ago.
It's so bad, there is speculation Saudia Arabia is pumping as fast as possible to get what they can $ pbl because every dollar it drops and they continue to pump is a long term hammering on their soverign economics. Much better to sell 1MM barrels at $30 than 1MM barels at $15...
Don't believe this?
---
Demand for oil in developed nations peaked in 2005, and changing demographics and improved motor-vehicle efficiency guarantee that it won't hit those heights again, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in a new report.
But demand for oil that has fallen in recent years in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, nations won't be made up, the analysts say.
The trend has been noticed elsewhere, as well. Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Rex Tillerson said this month that U.S. gasoline demand peaked in 2007.
---
On real-world-actual-reality based fundamentals -- oil is NEVER coming back. All bets off in the ME war scenario. This is also why that asshole Putin is the most dangerous mental midget on the planet right now. He wins BIG if oil prices scream higher due to an oil war.
Lets look at the daddy of "peak oil" -- a certain Mr. Marion King Hubbert -- who coincidentally just also happened to be a geologist...
Furthermore, Hubert was employed by Shell Oil Company from 1943 until retiring from that firm in 1964. Many don't know he was preaching peak oil theory whilst simultaneously working for big oil.
So we have two geologists -- from the oil industry -- preaching to everyone that we are running out. Hmm...
Why would long term employees of the major oil companies try and scare everyone into believing we are one barrel away from an apocalyptic Hollywood movie?
Lol...
It should but it won't.
- EIA Cuts Demand, Increases Production Forecast
- Meet Manifa (And Other Giant Oil Projects) That Will Add To The Global Oil Glut
- China's Demand for Crude is Showing Signs of Cracking
- Guggenheim's Minerd Sees Equity Bear Market, Oil Falling to $25
- Oil Seen Heading to $20 by Morgan Stanley on Dollar Strength
- Forget $20 Oil: StanChart Says "Prices Could Fall As Low As $10 A Barrel"
- Banks in U.A.E. Seen Ready for Extended Slump After Drop in Oil
- Rouhani Expects End of Sanctions in Days, Iran Revival to Follow
The house of Saud just proved that they control 100% of the price of the most iportant commodity on earth at their whim. For now.
Saudi Aramco is in the process of going public.
Saudi Aramco is looking for consultants in North America for their "Unconventional Resources" program.
Methinks they killed the price to buy the frackers and their shale deposits for pennies on the dollar. They will become the DeBeers of oil. This is what will ensure the petrodollar and MIC forever and ever and ever and ever.
he just explained the commodity cycle. nothing new except that the cycle has been elongated by economic conditions(sub par growth) and geopolitics in the oil patch. oil use is still growing, just not enough to take up the slack. i am surprised the same people who have strenuously opposed more fuel efficient vehicles haven't done much to force the return of higher prices by forcing the acceleration of well shutdowns in the usa.
Fuck oil. Prices for other shit can go the fuck down for a change!
Prices of shit wouldn't be so high if it wasn't for all this cheap credit!
ZH, thanks for continually posting interviews with Chris Martenson. Anything he does, any guest he has discussions with... those are valuable to all of us. Much appreciated.
"In the end, it's always about fundamentals"
LOL!
Did he use charts and government supplied data to arrive at the fundamentals?
Does his investment letter come with free email?
Geeeeez!
Another superficially correct discussion of the increasingly insane volatility driven by the actual fundamentals that public governments ENFORCE FRAUDS by private banks, despite that never being able to stop those FRAUDS from still being FALSE.
To quote the featured "true oil expert:"
Chris Martenson, and everyone that he appears to ever interview, ALL tend to base their views upon Hanlon's Razon:
STUPIDITY only applies through a superficially correct analysis that deliberately does NOT examine the actual history of the international bankers achieving their goals, as stated by the historian Carroll Quigley:
"powers of financial capitalism
had another far-reaching goal,
nothing less than to create a
world system of financial
control in private hands
able to dominate the
political system of
each country and
the economy of
the world as
a whole ..."
However, that history is more like archaeology now, because the successful creation of those ENFORCED FRAUDS has driven the BIG BANKS to become inconceivably BIG expressions of runaway crazy corruption, to the point where the little lives of flesh and blood people, inside the physical markets are relatively trivial factors, within the virtual reality using "money" made out of nothing to speculate with, since that virtual reality now exceeds the physical reality of physical markets by orders of magnitude, similar to the degree to which electronics and atomic energy exceeds the common sense of the vast majority of people.
People who have adapted to living inside of social systems based on enforced frauds have simultaneously developed attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance, related to the deeply paradoxical nature of the social successes that were based upon those triumphantly enforced frauds. Those attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance applied all across the board, from the resulting social polarization, to the destruction of the natural world, to accumulate consequences that have gone beyond ordinary human comprehension.
BANKSTERS HAVE BUILT SYSTEMS OF ENFORCED FRAUDS WHICH HAVE BECOME SO BIG THAT NOBODY, INCLUDING THEM, CAN COMPREHEND THOSE ANYMORE. Their debt slavery systems have generated numbers which have become debt insanities ... while those threaten to provoke death insanities, because money was always measurement backed by murder, BUT THAT BECAME BIGGER AND BIGGER, as that was amplified by technologies which were trillions of times more capable and powerful, to create a situation where the total of the "money" made of out nothing to speculate with became orders of magnitude BIGGER than the physical market that it was supposed to operate within!
The view that problems were created by "cheap stupid money" is superficially correct analysis, but otherwise is itself stupid. Those who tend to rely upon Hanlon's Razor presumptions are willing and able to only look at the ways that the vicious spirals of POLITICAL FUNDING ENFORCING FRAUDS are publicly misrepresented because the international bankers, as the biggest gangsters, the banksters, have been able to persistently apply the methods of organized crime to the political processes, sufficiently to result in almost all of the successful politicians becoming those banksters' puppets, who are voted for by enough of the masses of muppets, who were misinformed throughout their entire lives by their schools and mass media. While those politicians and the people that vote for them appear to be incompetently stupid, that social situation was driven by the history of successfully applying the methods of organized crime through the political processes, such as by bribery, intimidation, as well as assassination of those who could not otherwise be bribed or intimidated. The intense paradoxes of human intelligence were primarily due to its greatest social successes being based on reducing other people to become more incompetent political idiots. The intelligence of the ruling classes waged war against the consciousness of those they ruled over. That social situation is perceived by those who rely upon Hanlon's Razor as being that there was nothing but the apparent stupidity of the politicians and their voters.
So-called "cheap stupid money" EXISTS due to the long history of ENFORCING FRAUDS. That ability to legally counterfeit the public "money" supply is the SOURCE of the mostly deliberately driven so-called "business cycles" of booms and busts. It is within that context that everything stated by the featured "true oil expert" is superficially correct.
Given a sufficiently macabre sense of humour, I find it ironically amusing to observe the degree to which Martenson, and all the people he has interviewed to which I have listened in the past, continue to rely upon Hanlon's Razor. Of course, I sympathize with how and why the vast majority of people do NOT want to better understand that money is measurement backed by murder. They do NOT want to understand that the political economy necessarily operates INSIDE the human ecology, and therefore, the debt controls were backed by the death controls.
Those who are able and willing to rely upon Hanlon's Razor, that somehow the monetary system is stupid, rather than the result of the triumph of organized crime, are then able to continue to operate INSIDE of the same frame of reference that all the other mainstream morons tend to still take for granted, and then, able to promote bogus "solutions" presented by reactionary revolutionaries, which do not have to think more deeply about how and why the EXISTING systems are based upon public governments ENFORCING FRAUDS by private banks, which fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems dominate EVERYTHING that the political economy is doing, including the wild oscillations of the price of oil, which have various counter-intuitive and paradoxical effects, since being able to back up lies with violence still never stops those lies from being false. Rather, the longer term results are that systems based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS drive civilization as a whole to become criminally insane, due to the excessive successfulness of the applications of the methods of organized crime through the political processes, which require that most people neither understand that, nor want to understand that.
Moreover, the full story is WAY WORSE, because there must necessarily be some death control systems. However, the existing systems were driven to become most socially successful by becoming the most deceitful and treacherous, which were the basis for building financial successfulness upon ENFORCING FRAUDS. That kind of financial success was the source of the "cheap stupid money" which has driven increasingly insane volatility in the price of oil, which increasingly will have more and more catastrophic longer term consequences.
The deeper levels of the situation are due to natural selection pressures driving the development of human intelligence, which was applied to the most important selection pressures, through the history of warfare and economics, to become the currently existing sociopolitical systems based upon the maximum possible deceits and frauds, being operated by the best available professional hypocrites.
Again, given a sufficiently macabre sense of humour, I find it ironically amusing to observe the degree to which the progress in physical science, based upon better and better understanding of general energy systems, is NOT applied through political science. The deeper reasons for that are EXTREMELY PROFOUND! While human beings and civilization necessarily live as entropic pumps of environmental energy flows, the ways that those systems really work most closely match the principles and methods of organized crime, which became, on larger and larger scales, warfare, that then became a political economy based upon ENFORCING FRAUDS.
Those fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems demand that the vast majority of people believe in the dualities of false fundamental dichotomies and the related impossible ideals. The overwhelming vast majority of people almost totally take for granted thinking in those ways, which therefore, of course, includes Martenson and the people he interviews. There is EXTREME IRONY that Maternson, et alia, NEVER engage in deeper analysis of the relationships between the economy, energy and environment.
Martenson is more and more aware of the anomalies that the established systems are based upon deliberate ignorance towards the underlying realities of the relationships between the economy, energy and environment. However, he does NOT go through the series of profound paradigm shifts which would be required to place those increasing anomalies into a sufficiently different frame of reference, in order to systematically appreciate how and why those anomalies have developed.
Since social pyramid systems developed on the basis of being able to back up lies with violence for thousands of years, at nearly an exponential rate, due to prodigious progress in physical science, we more and more ended up living INSIDE "Wonderland Matrix Bizarro Worlds," where everything is publicly presented in the most absurdly backward ways possible. (The most abstract of those being that "we" continue to deliberately misunderstand time and space in ways which have been proven to be utterly wrong and backwards, and that "we" tend to take for granted the complete inversion of the meaning of entropy, as the distribution of energy through time and space.)
Politics has more and more become an oxymoronic scientific dictatorship, based upon applying progress in technology to become better at backing up lies with violence, which have become GLOBALIZED ELECTRONIC FRAUDS BACKED BY THE THREAT OF FORCE OF ATOMIC BOMBS. Meanwhile, people like Martenson continue to rely upon Hanlon's Razor in order to interpret THAT, which then enables them to avoid thinking more deeply about the murder systems that back up the money systems, and therefore, spares them the necessity of thinking about how changing the murder systems are what would actually happen, as well as theoretically be necessary.
In my view, the most important sets of consistent contradictions are those driven by prodigious progress in physical science, having gone through series of profound paradigm shifts, while NONE of that has been allowed to happen in political science. Being able to use inanimate energy sources required scientific progress in understanding general energy systems. Of course, human beings and civilization are manifestations of general energy systems, however, because those were driven by natural selection pressures to become sociopolitical systems based upon more or less organized lies operating robberies, wherein those who were the best at doing that were able to dominate society. Hence, that society ended up being thereby brainwashed to believe in the biggest bullies' bullshit world views, regarding pretty well everything.
While the heat engines fueled by petroleum resources were based upon progress in thermodynamics, that theory was forced to compromise with the biggest bullies' bullshit world view, by inserting an arbitrary minus sign into its entropy equation, so that measurements of power would appear to have relative positive values, rather than relative negative values. Similarly so far, most of the prodigious progress in physical science based upon profound paradigm shifts understanding energy systems through unitary mechanisms has NOT been allowed to happen in political science!
Rather, politics continues being almost totally dominated by the biggest bullies' bullshit, which has become the bankster controlled governments ENFORCING FRAUDS, being able to present everything that political economy actually does in the most absurdly backward ways possible. Meanwhile, it is inside that context that people like Martenson, et alia, are recognizing the growing anomalies, but NOT coming remotely close to going through the intellectual scientific revolutions which would it take for them to actually better understand the deeper relationships between the economy, energy and environment.
Rather, Martenson's material is typical of that republished on Zero Hedge, as being worthwhile presentations of superficially correct analysis. Hence, while I agreed with everything I heard in the audio recording embedded in the article above, the language being used was all implicitly based upon Hanlon's Razor, which presents the view that the problems were driven by "stupid money," when actually those problems were driven by the excessive successfulness of organized crime. Moreover, since there must necessarily be some death controls, the debt slavery systems, whereby the public "money" supply could be created out of nothing as debts, in order to "pay" for developing petroleum resources, have driven debt insanities, whose consequences will surely get worse, faster, in the foreseeable future, since we are thereby rushing towards those provoking death insanities.
IF, IF, IF, one moves beyond presuming upon Hanlon's Razor, then the real problems become almost infinitely worse to face, (which is probably why so few people do so.) The real debt controls were always backed by the death controls. The real history of the development of petroleum resources was always dominated by organized crime repeating fractally on every level, including in previous world wars. Furthermore, that also included the history of alcohol prohibition, and the War on Drugs, as well as the current War on Terror, all being manifestations of the ways that governments became the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals.
Therefore, any realistic resolutions of the real problems will require changes in the death control systems in general, with changes in the murder systems being the most extreme form of those. Such changes ought to be based upon intellectual scientific revolutions, which enable profound paradigm shifts in the ways that we perceive how and why the debt controls were backed by the death controls, and thus, directed the ways that the political economy actually worked, regarding everything, and especially regarding petroleum resources. Moreover, all of that has become relatively old-fashioned chemical energy, while the cutting edges of progress in science and technology have gone far beyond that kind of chemical energy, to become globalized electronic frauds, backed by the threat of force of atomic bombs.
At the present time, people who are content to rely upon using Hanlon's Razor to interpret the social situation, are able to thereby deliberately avoid recognizing that militarism is the supreme ideology, and therefore, do not have to integrate any changes in the human murder systems into their proposals for changes in other facets of human economic activities. Therefore, guys like Martenson are able and willing to discuss the relationships between economy, energy and environment, without more directly admitting and addressing the murder systems, despite those being the most important ways in which all three of those actually converge.
I like your succinct (and mostly) coherent style of discussing a series of complex topics.
Perhaps your realistic resolutions via ‘changes’ will be more approachable as the current system winds down. As the system deflates, and the lifestyle’s of those in the west with it, rising discomfort may break down peoples apathy, leading to more questions of ‘why?’
Well-fed and comfortable people have little motivation to question their status quo; it is easier for most to just believe the lies and readjust to the shrinking freedoms and inconsistency of the world they live in. This will erode, but where to then?
Is there an existing school of thought regarding your worldview, in particular enforcing frauds and death control systems? I would like to read up some more on these topics that you speak of in your posts.Perhaps you could recommend some material.
sober_kiwi, the most entertaining way to learn more about such topics is to take the time to watch Excellent Videos on Money Systems. There are several dozen listed and linked there, many of which have previously been featured on Zero Hedge.
Meanwhile, it is hard to keep up even with the increasing torrent of news appearing on Zero Hedge! For instance, just today, another significant article was republished here: The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall St's Oil-Price Monopoly
That article reviewed the history of how, during the past few decades, more and more, the oil market based upon "supply and demand" was "transforming oil trading into a casino where Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP MorganChase and a few other giant Wall Street banks ran the crap tables."
TRAGICALLY,
THE OPPOSITE TO THE CONCLUSION
OF THAT ARTICLE IS MORE PROBABLE.
Disagree with the article. I think that future production is already "priced in" because oil companies have NOT, i repeat, have NOT, shelved production expansion plans. They have merely cut back on such plans. So new production will continue to be coming online throughout 2016 and beyond.
Oil is the fuel of the past. It makes no sense to destroy the environment and do things like use huge amounts of other resources like natural gas and fresh water to separate oil from sand (like they do in Canada).
Electric cars, solar panels, geothermal energy, etc are not just hippy dippy bullshit - they work and they are the future.
Electric cars are not a viable cold clilmate solution. Not only that, but electric tractor-trailers are a long way off.
Perhaps if Obama wasn't so pre-occupied with BLM, LGBTQIA and pro-Mooslim advocacy, he could take his head out of his arse long enough to see that now would be a good time to add to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. After all; as a Constitutional Scholar, he should be smart enough to know to BUY LOW.
He is assuming that a new form of cheap energy isn't coming very soon. I wouldn't assume that.
Fusion FTW.
Bullshit
15 years ago, I would have still agreed with the statement that "oil price must rise".
In the year 2016... I seriously doubt it.
Guys, where have you been in the last 20 years???
Oil and mostly gas reserves have been found so abundantly that now the question is "how do we limit the use of oil and gas so that we do not turn this planet into a gas chamber????"
Wake up, people!!! The "oil and gas" sheme of limited supply was broken, now it is too late to go back to the old paradigm of who has oil is the strategic winner, or the richest guy. This is what they still want you to believe, but it does not work anymore... Welcome to the brave new world!!!
and this article was inspired by a geologist, nevertheless... WTF????????????
That dude in a new home in Palmdale CA with wife and kid that works in LA and just bought a giant new truck with a home equity loan that has an aluminum engine that ethanol eats like Monica sucks.... is fucked again.
Wait till he finds out CA raised taxes a buck while nobody was looking and when everybody in America is complaining about $5 gal gasoline, he'll be paying $7.
300mpg move cafe 10x put that in your demand equation...
Oil must go up. No kidding. Everything which doesn't go to zero goes down then goes up again. This article would be a lot more interesting if it said when it will go back up.
So who all predicted the collapse of oil prices due to a coming glut? No one that I remember, and the few that claim to have predicted some drop in oil are, I think, exaggerating their prescience.
Oil prices can rise just as quickly as they've dropped.
Unless there has been some huge change in alternative energy technology that we, the little people, have yet to be let in on, oil will rise again.What will those that are claiming oil will never be back up to triple digits be saying when it happens?
No one is ever accountable for past bloviation.
DEAR JESUS CHRIST, PLEASE GIVE ME ONE MORE OIL BOOM. I PROMISE NOT TO SCREW IT UP AGAIN. (THIS TIME I AM SERIOUS.)
Very few people over the years have been more wrong than Art Berman. An example would be his 2009 World Oil editorial in which he claimed to have calculations based on 11,817 wells in the Barnett shale that showed the following claims to be true:
"Core areas of the play do not have appreciably higher EURs than the play overall" but today his work is strongly dominated by the argument that only the core areas are economic
"the EUR from horizontal wells is not significantly greater than from vertical wells" this claim was and is laughable
"There is little correlation between Initial Production rates and Estimated Ultimate Recovery" there is not if you look at reported test data (which competent people know is BS) however the much more consistent first 30 days rate is HIGHLY correlated to EUR
"the volume of the commercially recoverable resource has been greatly overestimated" this statement was folllowed by his prediction that the actual Barnett EUR would be 8.8 TCF. The Barnett has produced over 15 TCF to date and is still making in the TCF/year range.
The man has a track record and it is very weak. While once he was a prominent writer and speaker at petroleum technology venues today he is basically a blogger whose viewpoint seems to consistently come back to "public companies are just lying about their results" (which of course may make him a ZH hero). He's been a darling of the Peak Oil crowd for years (ever since the petroleum industry figured out they could ignore him and he had no where else to go). Peak oil is BS and has been ever since Hubbert first created his curve - because human ingenuity will find a way to access a resource.
Here he is clinging to his analysis that the shale boom can't be real....well every day when I login and check WTI & HH prices to see my income continue to decline I find that somebody is producing a lot of hydrocarbons in the US and it ain't the 5 remaining convential players /sarc