China Trade Balance Surges As Exports Surprise To The Upside
Mission Accomplished? It's a modern monetary miracle - China's trade surplus surged to CNY382bn (from 434bn), dramaticlaly higher than the expected drop to 338bn thanks to better than expected data for imports and exports. Imports dropped 4.0% (less than the 7.9% drop expected) and the smallest decline since December 2014 but it was exports that "proved" China's policymakers are large and in charge. For the first time since February 2015, China exports rose year-over-year (by 2.3%) dramatically better than the 4.1% plunge expected.
Everything is awesome again!!
So - no need for more policy support... despite earlier comments from officials of export policy support?
Offshore Yuan is rallying modestly on this news...
Now we look forward to all of China's trading partners report how their exports also rose this month (leaving some magical off-Earth entity making up the "difference").
And finally - not wanting to pour cold water on the celebrations, we note that it is crucial to understand this is the extremely seasonal period leading up to Chinese New Year and is most likely an outlier... but for now, everything is awesome.
(2 votes)
»
- Login or register to post comments
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The threat is real. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-d6LFLpBvw
appracadabra
Explain this to me like I'm 5...
Baltic Dry is at 405... No one in China is exporting anything.
How do you get money out of China when capital controls are being tightened up?
You export everything you can get your hands on and sell it for whatever pittance the goods will bring outside of the financial fence.
Then you fly over to check on your warehouse in the United States and never come back.
You buy overpriced .coms
Then you re-sell them to some Dik-Wad, after the funds clear.
I was thinking of a slight improvement over that scenario.
First, you use your expat cousin to register a bunch of domains and then you buy the overpriced digital real estate from him and keep it all in the family.
Must be overland on burros and camels.
And TWO HUNDRED & NINETY TWO THOUSAND jobs were saved or created.
Its just marvelous, it really is ;-)
Pull this finger.
their exporting electronic dollars..............
Lying merchantilist bastards.
Haha. I guess that's why they are devaluing. The CNBlowhorn will be all over this phoney number tomorrow
It's called a revision.
It's done all the time.
It's Yuan depreciation driven.
Won't even go into the arbitration side of things.
I'm thinking with the popularity of cooking shows, I'll start a book cooking show. I can travel all over the world for examples. " Juanthony Boudoir " will be my stage name.
anybody knoehow large is the "misinvoicing to get around exchange controls, etc and worse not accompanied with actual flows of physicals ? Investigate and verify b4 you jump. Credibility with official data even among the locals is at a low point.
Tyler is wrong. Chinese biggest trading partner US is reporting worse trade data so there is no need of magical off earth entity to make up the difference. What is the point to make assumptions while reporting the data. Can you say something positive about China at least once?
Allow me
They're really good at filling water glasses
Tyler is wrong? That explains it, because I was rereading this sentence and not comprehending it as written:
Since when is a drop a surge?
with the baltic dry index going into record lows over that period, what did they ship it on, donkeys?
It's called accounting, my good man. You book the order and enter it into your ledger. Now whether that order ever gets filled or shipped is a different matter - but it is booked. Glad China finally joined the accounting and financial engineering revolution.
Also, if something is "sold" to Hong Kong and then sold right back w/o ever leaving the warehouse - that's positive for exports and imports, right?
Seahorses...
Baltic Dry Index only tracks bulk raw commodities shipping: coal, ores, grains. It doesn't include finished goods on the big container ships. If China is clearing their warehouses of finished goods at devalued yuan prices while simultaneously cutting back on raw material imports it's plausible that their trade surplus goes up. For a while.
That said, never trust any data coming out of China or anywhere else; it's all massaged by goal-seeking bureaucrats. The garbage numbers released by government agencies influence equity market prices but they don't give a reliable read of national economies.
It used to be that eventually reality would set in and markets would rebalance to accurately reflect what's really going on, but Central bank interventions and national Plunge Protection Team manipulations have created such distortions that the markets' reflection of reality has become a funhouse mirror.
Then look at HARPEX.
Don't know what to believe these days
Believe that some 40 something year old on Wall St. with a big mortgage, a needy wife, two entitled kids in private school, a mistress with expensive tastes and a gambling and coke habit needs to extract your money through any means necessary - then you'll be right
The only thing you need to believe in is that you are always being deceived.
eh, why would China's trading partners report a rise in exports? Chinese imports still fell, it just didn't fall as much as forcast, but it's still a fall
The Chinese are reading the Talmud to get the jews.
Shipping is way down. So how did they get all those exported goods out of China?
Then can someone please explain the meaning of the BDI again? And if no ships are sailing the ocean, how the fuck did their exports go up like it did? I smell something ain't right somewhere. This shit could go on for years yet. Enjoy the ride.
part of the issue with the bdi that hasn't been told is the huge overcapacity in shipping capacity with a lot of new shipping capacity coming online. couple that with slowing trade and you have really cheap shipping rates.
so they put Dollars, Yuan and Gold into little boxes and ship it out of the Country and call it an Export? win win
ain't accounting wonderful
Even comical Ali was more credible
i will load up on more amzn shorts as soon as this green shoot browns out.
Santa crap uptick by the West. In januari it wil be down down down again
Plus or minus - it's always a 'meltdown' @ ZH))
So when the data are beaarish Bloomberg runs stories that the data can't be trusted, but this rainbow and silence?
Aparrently could be fake invoicing to skirt capital controls https://twitter.com/ericbeebo/status/687156480362070016/photo/1
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jan/13/chinese-trade-data-...
Lies, damn lies and statistics
The People's Accounting Commission regrets to report the loss of entire previous staff to mysterious disappearance after some inconclusive and nefarious reports were accidentally published. We happy to say that new data has been added and all reports show lucky time for all people of China.
All I know is that if the Chinese government is going to execute me for letting my crap company go down the tubes after billions in local government aid, I am making up invoices as fast as my mimeograph can print them to pretend everything is fine, to buy time for my family to get out of dodge with the bitcoin.