Devaluation Odds Spike To Record Highs As Market Bets Saudi Dollar Peg Will Fall
Apparently, the market isn't buying the notion that a Saudi Aramco IPO will be enough to shore up Riyadh's fiscal fiasco because riyal forwards are hitting fresh highs.
As a reminder, the Saudis are staring down a budget deficit that should amount to some 13% of GDP in 2016 and between low oil prices, expensive subsidies, and two proxy wars, the red ink isn't likely to disappear any time soon.
Throw in the fact that the war of words with Tehran may well turn into a shooting war before it's all said and done and the pressure may ultimately force the kingdom to drop the SAR peg, ending a three decade FX regime.
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It seems the sociopaths aren't exclusive to the USA and Europe.
Whocouldanode
OT, and the source is questionable, but how about this for a news story. Obama buying a house in UAE (non extradition country) and firing an admiral for disclosing it? Kind of wild but I like it!
http://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2016/01/admiral-fired-for-leaking-obam...
Sounds like a crock of shit.
Obama will retire to Chicago.
As often Thierry Meyssan has produced an interesting and accurate analysis, this time on the upcoming fall of Saudi Arabia (and how Americans encourage it). Here is its (somewhat clumsy, but still worthwhile) translation into English:
Towards the collapse of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Royal Family- A cuelly violent, inbred gang of homosexual boy-raping psycopathic crypto-Jews who follow a heretical death-cult, all while weilding god-like despotic powers over an enslaved population...what's not to like?
My last month paycheck was for 11000 dollars... All i did was simple online work from comfort at home for 3-4 hours/day that I got from this agency I discovered over the internet and they paid me for it 95 bucks every hour... Try it yourself... www.wallstreet34.com
Saudi Arabia about to collapse:
Towards the collapse of Saudi Arabia by Thierry MeyssanWhile the Saud family enjoys the last few moments of its dictatorship, the decapitation of the leader of the opposition, Nimr al-Nimr, deprives half of the Saudi population of all hope. For Thierry Meyssan, the fall of the kingdom has become inevitable. It will probably be accompanied by a long period of extreme violence.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article189846.html
If global social unrest pushes up oil prices, I'll still be getting around on my bike no problem. Consider practicing cycling as a way to prepare for the shit hitting the fan. We have wind chills around 3F today but I was riding around happy as a clam. I can get where I need to go, even off-road, without relying on anything but my own strength and mechanical aptitude. Plus I'm virtually silent.
What is your towage rating (measured in bullion)?
:>)
One avoirdupois pound of gold = $16,106.
Five pounds in the saddlebag should be sufficient.
"In terms of its interior policy, the régime favours only the Sunni or Wahhabi half of the population, and discriminates against the other half."
If he can't even get that right I have no faith in the article.
Did someone say IPO?!
I'm in.
"Well they are like the Steve Jobs of oil. This company could be bigger than Facebook within a decade. Good for a 200% pop on day 1." - Joe Trader Monkey
Looks like a Weimar graph
Saudi Arabia will do just fine, if they can just ignite the growth and the animal spirits.
They need the right incentives.
It's entirely a problem of marginal rates.
Oh Larry...
No one is shedding tears for the Wahhabi Saudis of whom 11 out of the 15 9-11 hijackers hailed and which this leader of OPEC has been screwing the American consumer for 2 decades in order to build their ivory towers in the desert on the backs of imported Philippino and other Southeast Asian serfs. Of the wars that the Council on Foreign Relations has devised and orchestrated, Iraq, Libya, Syria, the overthrow of Mubarrak in Egypt, the war between Shiite Iran and Wahhabi Saudi Arabia will be the most deserving for both.
The 9/11 Truthers will be on your ass shortly. If it's not an inside job it didn't happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdP95oSoOFk "9/11 METHODICAL DECEPTION -- Rebekah Roth"
Has anyone ever seen the people in the plane and can anyone verify or dismantle the "official story"? No and easily.
The above video is from an Airline Stewardess angle and has evidence that is so damning to MI6, which means CIA as well that no one could honestly deny that it was not Islam, but TPTB that created the "War on Terror", the war that never ends and is perfect because it is without borders and without faces, which means anyone's face/person can be declared terrorist; thus all the data mining to be used as needed. Furthermore; crossing sovereign borders is routine.
It (the crime of the century) most certainly did happen and there's no question that it was an inside job. You can lay down all of the disparaging terms you want, but it still won't change the reality of what happened. And for the record, I'd rather be a "truther" than a liar or paid government asshole.
Anyone who parrots the official version of 9/11 is either a liar or else has never done one iota of research on the subject. There are no other alternatives.
You need to come up with sarcasm that is just slightly more sophisticated than that. This isn't the Glenn Beck program...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbkQddEDPs0
The Notorious Banned FOX 9-11-2001 News Footage Israeli/Mossad LinksYou're right. Beats me how anyone doesn't believe the official version. The one that says a few Cessna pilots performed a manouevre deemed impossible by all Boeing pilots and that Larry Sillverstein just struck it lucky, and that the dancing Israelis who were there in their own words 'to record trhe event' just heard about the impendng attack in a pub the night before.
Jesus what is going on? If they announce a 5% production cut the price of oil will pop 200%. Problem solved.
Are they willing to go to the wall to destroy competition?
Remember that Kerry visited the Saudi King in August of 2014; so deal was struck because after that meeting is when the oil began to makes its plunge. The rumor was to wreck the Russian and Iranian economies; who really knows about that aspect. Yemen may very well be the "prize", but the Saudi's have made a grave mistake just as Turkey has made a grave mistake; both trying to play on both sides of the global fence...never ends well.
What are we to make of all this if the oil plunge is by design? We must also note that global demand is down as well, but not by the amount of the plunge; so we must assume that something bigger is going on. Interesting times to be sure.
My opinion is the Saudis oil production has peaked... hence the desperation geopolitically.
I hope they're ready for the massive social unrest that will follow when inflation skyrockets.
Has anyone calculated how a failure of the peg plays out?
What would happen... Pondering....
1) Oil is priced in USD from the get-go, correct? So no conversion issue there. Price remains the same at first.
2) Vacations to Saudi Arabia for a week at the biggest beach in the world suddenly become more affordable.
3) Saudi government / businesses / citizens suddenly are paying more for all imports. Thus requiring an increase in subsidies.
Then...?
Deficit sky rockets
Pressure builds to raise oil price
IPO balloon gets more real...