Gartman: We Are Prepared To Short More
Yesterday morning, several hours before the algos finally read it and sent stocks soaring, Gartman declared that "We Shifted To Modestly Net Short, We Have Had No Choice." Stocks then closed green after a furious last hour rally. But can Gartman make it two for two: as of this moment futures are rebounding again, having spiked nearly 30 points from overnight lows. Perhaps this is the catalyst.
SHARE PRICES CONTINUE THEIR COLLECTIVE COLLAPSE as nine of the ten markets comprising our International index have fallen over the course of the past twenty four hours, and of those nine four have fallen by more than 1% and one… Japan’s market, which because it was closed yesterday had some very serious “catching-up” to accomplish; and did!...has fallen by more than 2%. For the year-to-date, our International Index is now down a very material 748 “points or 7.8%, led downward by the stunning 14.4% decline in the Shanghai Composite. From the highs made late last May… the point at which we now believe that the bear market began, for by definition a bear market begins at the very peak of the previous bull market…our International Index is down a very real and very material 2378 “points or 21.3%. Even the most doctrinaire” definers of bullish or bearish movements shall consider a 21.3% decline to be material in nature and certainly now defined as a bear market.
Because this is a bear market, strength is to be sold into and we had hoped that yesterday’s early strength in the US equity futures would be of a sufficient nature that would allow us the opportunity to sell. It never came. However that does not preclude us from trying to ascertain to which level the inevitable rebound shall carry prices, but as the chart at the bottom left of p1 this morning suggests we can readily imagine the S&P futures making their way higher with sufficient strength to carry the futures upward toward the 1975-1990 level. We can… and we will be… patient.
The punchline:
THE S&P WILL BOUNCE…: It Just Has To: And when it does we’ll be prepared to sell the S&P futures short. Our target is the “red zone” note here, which was support back in October, and November and again in December, but which shall not be rather clear resistance.
Shorters may want to take today off.
(4 votes)
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Lead cat's don't bounce
He always get it backwards, Gartman must suffer from retrograde ejaculation, he must. "Wrongway Gartman"
today could very easily be a 400pt up day.....SOTU, opex etc etc.....panic buying could last a week.
There are quite a few opex rallies, but the jobs number rally REALLY sucked, so who knows. Things look sick worldwide and not looking to improve. This might just be for the president's speech. There is nothing to lift stocks with.
The Fartman is an evil wind...
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But he is saying it will bounce, so we do the opposite and stay short, yes? Me so confused...
Yup, if Gartman says to short you can expect at least a 5% rally in the /ES. His "this is the most bullish I've been on crude" call on October 7th at $48 a barrel was absolutely magical.
No, no, no. You've got it all wrong. Gartman doesn't manage money. Gartman is a brilliant writer for The Onion. Brilliant.
Tyler, if you read the comments, you guys need to do a side by side of Gartman vs Stolpher. Might be fun to see who is/was more wrong.
Shut the fuck up Gartman!!
Please keep talking, Gartman! Always wrong is the same as always right.
Wrongman
Of all the articles on ZH I enjoy it's possible the greatest service the Tylers do for their readers is posting this moron's newsletter almost daily.
Perhaps Gartman failed to notice that the various Fed Heads have already started to buckle and are walking back a lot of their "four rate hikes in 2016" rhetoric. You want to know why the market found some legs yesterday (exactly as Gartman didn't predict)? That's why and for no other reason. Now the bet is when the Fed is going to turn the tap back on, not crank it down tighter.
It is all out in the open now. The large banking cartel has no more use for the Fed and considers itself invincible now. The Fed & CB's are no longer relevant.
The infighting among the elites is becoming more pronounced now. But it has always been clear that those at the very top were always in control of what is important.
How about that 10 year Janet!?!?
So Phartman just picked up another $200.00 for his insight!
Buy the dipshit!
Story in the Globe about house prices in the expensive suburbs has peaked and is now declining in the Weston, Wellesley towns since November..the official notification of the recession will come in April but we are in one folks...
Fuck. Time to rethink my strategy.
Dis nigga crazy. Why is he trying to make such short term predictions? The more specific a prediction is, the lower the confidence interval. For something like daily moves, the confidence interval isn't much better than random guessing. As a result, it would be possible for lots of short term guessing errors to add up to huge losses over a longer period of time even if he correctly guessed the long term trend.
"the confidence interval isn't much better than random guessing"
He's much worse than random guessing. Which is why his stuff is so valuable. Consistently wrong is just as useful as consistently right.
and given the probability of anyone being consistently right is next to zero in the real world
finding a consistently wrong indicator is actually the best thing there is
NoDebt - do you actually trade on what gartman says, as in do the opposite? Im not a trader, Im just curious because it seems like by the time this stuff posts, the move in the markets has already happened.
I have a small account where occasionally, if I am bored (or absolutely certain I'm right about something), I'll chuck a few trades at it. I'm not a "trader" by any stretch of the imagination, though.
SO WHAT ARE YOU SAYING ZH - THAT THE "EXPECTED" GARTMAN BOUNCE TO 1970-1990 WILL "FAIL"? AND THAT GARTMAN WILL FAIL TO GET HIS SHORTING OPPORTUNITY???
OR THAT THE BOUNCE WILL GO MUCH HIGHER??
GARTMAN IS SAYING A BOUNCE - WITH A SELL INTO THE BOUNCE, SO SHOULDN'T THAT INDICATE THE MARKET WILL FAIL TO BOUNCE AND CONTINUE DOWN INSTEAD??? PLEASE CLEAR THIS UP FOR ME!
"THE S&P WILL BOUNCE…: It Just Has To." sniff, sniff...(laugh out loud).."it just has to! if not i'll come back on live tv and put a .45 cal in my big fat mouth and pop off a coupla rounds"............
when? Is it too late to get it set up as a pay per view event?
The.1% are selling and cashing out. Only stupid people are staying in this market.
read your latest quarterly prospectuses, the Board of Directors and top management divested themselves of all company stock........last quarter.
David Tepper, friend of Yellen and the world's most connected Jew, happened to sell at the top.
so when it gets to his target it will blow right thru.....got it
every dog has his day
Your dog just urinated on my clock.
Which is right twice a day.
Dam now I have to cover my profitable short and buy…
So Gartman is predicting short term rally, followed by new lows? Damn, that was positioning. What I have got wrong?
So add in yesterday's Gart-Attack and:
"We are net short, but the market has to bounce, meaning our net short will be underwater, but once it does bounce, we will short it even more, until those shorts get stopped out by a huge rally'".
Got it!
I have never wanted to get shorter....longer with more girth maybe......baby
Gartman for the next head of the federal reserve, they need this mans genius.
The opposite of Gartman in this scenario is the market will drop (instead of bouncing like he predicted) and then he will prob short at the bottom of the drop only for the market to rebound to his levels approx 1950-1995. At which point he will prob go long again lol. Only for the big drop to happen...
Takeaway: Gartman is poaching credible work by others to identify this zone where a "dream new net short" position presents itself (only problem is that it already gave you that chance not once but a couple times).
Most Likely Outcome: it never gets there and then after it breaks 1896 Gartman piles in with the "aww shucks we just gotta get short now" right before the tradable bounce off of 1860ish.
Who says the highs are even in?
A proper top needs to brush longer-term Bollingers and trip all sorts of divergences, Hindenburg Omens, and the like.
He's right, the market will hit 1995...... after it hits 1795 first. Only problem is, when it does, Gartman will have relented and piled shorts in at 1805.
Guessing Gartman, hire yourself a dart-throwing monkey, you jackass.
The monkey would mistaken Gartman as the target; oh well.
I sold all my puts and bought calls yesterday.. was afraid I fouled up but late rally was quite confirming we would see a bounce today. may last 3 days..
Jason, you should not be making predictions, i.e., "may last 3 days," without employing the use of at least one plural subject, i.e., "we."
Try, "We sold all our puts, yesterday."
Also, insert some fun adjectives and adverbs.
This was a good attempt:
"quite confirming we would see a bounce today"
You have a future as a talking head or featured guest on CNBC. Gartman will actually die some day. Hang in there.
<-- Head fake rally
<-- Long tall Sally
Comedy. Gartman's routine just never gets old, does it...
Why the fucking royal "we" all the time?
We are not sure. None of us.
i know, does gartman have a mouse in his pocket or something?
If at first you don't succeed... Even if it does cost some money to succeed, eh Gartman?