That "Savage" Deleveraging: Global Debt 2000-2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Constantin Gurdgiev's True Economics blog,

Here's a neat summary chart based on data from BIS through June 2015, covering total global credit (debt) outstanding (excluding IMF debt), issued in three main currencies:

That savage deleveraging... it has been truly epically... unnoticeable...

 

Oh, and one more thingy: the unsustainable build up of debt prior to the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was just about the same as the increase in debt during the so-called deleveraging period since the onset of the GFC.

This won't end well (again).

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Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:25 | 7034962 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

I guess gold is worth tucking under the pillow then....

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:35 | 7035008 Fester
Fester's picture

Or just dig 10,000 holes in your yard.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:37 | 7035019 two hoots
two hoots's picture

So goes debt, so goes the markets, and maybe life as we know it.   How debt is restrained/unrestrained, serviced or defaulted on "is" the financial new for the next decade.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 12:05 | 7035203 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

There is insufficient real assets to satisfy all these claims so a lot of people will get hosed when their paper 'asset' goes poof.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:26 | 7034969 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL! Eventually all those paper claims will start seeking out real assets...

hedge accordingly.

Nothing folks around here were not aware of.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:28 | 7034976 youngman
youngman's picture

Well the USA has not stopped spending more than they take in.....go figure....the only way to delever is to stop borrowing and pay down your debts..or default....I think we will see more of the later soon

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 12:05 | 7035200 .300WinMag
.300WinMag's picture

<---Adusts his cowboy hat

 

 

You forgot about that third option pardner........

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 13:01 | 7035575 daveO
daveO's picture

FED=inflationary default. The market will crash, the FED will print.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:28 | 7034977 nuubee
nuubee's picture

The accumulation of debt willl continue until spending improves.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:29 | 7034982 Jason T
Jason T's picture

like a mature forest 100 years old .. and all the wild fires have been put out in the last 30 years leaving shit loads of deadwood and thicket.

gonna be a hell of a fire that'll take down the 100 year old trees with it.. like Berkshire, Ford, Exxon and hte like.  

post this fire, grounds will be very furtile and will receive plenty of sun shine for new roots to take hold. .. that is if we still have liberty (Trump)

if we get tyranny.. we get a dark age.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:46 | 7035086 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Trump is not the droid you're looking for. If he were a pro-liberty candidate, he would mention End the Fed and, given his apparent popularity, he would be placed 6 feet under ground by TPTB. I'm not wishing that on the man, but you can tell he's not serious about restoring freedom. 

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 12:11 | 7035246 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

The entitled Mr. Scrooge is a controlled opposition, and a dumb-as-a-rock one at that.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 15:17 | 7036337 Tzanchan
Tzanchan's picture

sorry 2x post...

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 15:17 | 7036338 Tzanchan
Tzanchan's picture

TrumP? Liberty? You need to take a nap. He's born with a $100 million spoon in his mouth and parlayed it into who knows how much, courtesy of several bankruptcies. Went to military academy and won't release his transcript just like Barry, huh....... Rand Paul is the only libertarian. Is your son going to carpet bomb Iran or hold a rifle somewhere? Who gonna pay for that? Trumps BS has you and other people eating out of his hand. No principles. Rand Paul is the only sane natural born (Cruz started the Birther movement, oh the irony cuz he's NOT eligible) libertarian out there. But ya know what? I'm voting for Trump in the closed primary here in FL just so I can see JEB!'s head blow up. In 4 years Rubio will be too bald

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:30 | 7034983 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

If debt does not accumulate, it will implode

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:31 | 7034986 conraddobler
conraddobler's picture

You have two binary choices.

Out of the matrix or the matrix forever.

It gets harder to chose the first one every second of every day.

That is our lives by design.

We are all well boiled now it's completely incomprehensible that we could fight such a thing now it owns too much and the pain to get out of it is absurd.

The pain required isn't impossible it's just past the comfort level of the average person which is all they need to maintain this forever.  

Whatever solution they propose, whatever new regime they implement, it will always play by these rules and it will use your own fellow citizens against you to prohibit any ideas of escape.

There is no escape on this mortal realm it's way past that now.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:45 | 7035072 MadVladtheconquerer
MadVladtheconquerer's picture

Changesonebowie.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl3vxEudif8

Moral of the story:  accumulate assets as prices become cheap.

Same as it ever was.  Like Rolling Rock beer.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 12:02 | 7035188 .300WinMag
.300WinMag's picture

Truth be told there is no op out plan. 

 

We are all held collectively hostage by the captain of the ship. If he wants to run it aground at full speed - you're still on the boat. Once we get our collective bearings after the crash and go looking for the captain and crew - we'll discover that they took the life rafts just prior to the crash.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 12:12 | 7035258 crossroaddemon
crossroaddemon's picture

I agree. We're not going to turn this around in our lifetimes. It's not even a matter of comfort level; if the trucks stop running everybody starves and that includes most farmers.

Outright rebellion is doomed to fail and history says that even a successful revolution will probably just enthrone a greater tyranny. Anybody who thinks we can vote our way out of this is too dumb to bother with.

Nothing will change until we have alternate ways of getting the things we need. Here's what everyone serious about freedom needs to do RIGHT NOW. Quit your job. Step 1 is stop feeding the beast with your labor... That's what it craves the most of. Downsize. Find a cheap housing solution; it can be done. I bought the cheapest livable house in a nowhere town in Minnesota and my mortgage is probably less than most of your utility bills. Get on as many assistance programs as you can. EBT, Medicaid, heat assistance, whatever else you can manage. Get a useful skill that you can freelance to make whatever money you still need; DO NOT get a regular job. Now you're not only denying your labor to the squid you are actively draining it's life force. Use some of the resultant free time to do shit you want to do. Go fishing every day, learn to play guitar, write that shitty novel. Raise your own fucking kids instead of outsourcing it while you chase the almighty dollar. Also spend some time learning useful skills, and teaching them to your kids. Fix up your own house, grow food, whatever. We have to start finding alternatives to the squid or we'll never break free of it.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 14:40 | 7036148 TheDanimal
TheDanimal's picture

Once you leave the matrix, there's really no going back.  It just wouldn't ever be the same, even if it were possible.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:34 | 7035006 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Never really understood this notion of the average American 'deleveraging', or 'paying down his debts'.

 

Why would someone who is strugging in the first place, use what is left of their disposable income to pay down debts...?   Secondly, those who tend to 'overspend' aren't really the type to get all concerened about who they $owe, when the high of the latest shopping binge fades away.   Most of these people would just a soon declare BK than grind out a 5 year plan to pay off their $30k credit card debt.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:41 | 7035049 de3de8
de3de8's picture

In most cases it's not "why would" but more like how could. Rest of post I agree.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:46 | 7035081 youngman
youngman's picture

You are right ..they will blame it on the bank for giving them the money....

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 12:14 | 7035271 crossroaddemon
crossroaddemon's picture

And why the hell not? I can think of no finer thing a man or woman can do than to help murder a bank.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:38 | 7035028 css1971
css1971's picture

No, you don't have to actually delever to cause a crisis. You simply slow the increase to cause a crisis.

 

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 11:52 | 7035125 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Isn't debt just the same as money supply now?

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 13:00 | 7035571 Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

When I was younger, I was always afraid that this paycheck would be my last, so I spent all my extra income paying off debt.  Now I have none.  It is the way to go.  Throw off your chains.  If you can't buy it with the cash you have, then don't buy it.  Dont succumb to the lures of easy money. 

 

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 15:04 | 7036271 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Same here:  Never give a bank a dime.  Make them lose money on you and laugh all the way to the bank.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 13:17 | 7035710 Janet Shalom Be...
Janet Shalom Bernanke's picture

The criminals at the Fed definitely won't be able to blame others for the coming crisis. This massive debt expansion was only possible because of their interest rate manipulation, flooding the market with liquidity,  and currency debasement.   The GOP is already calling out the Fed for their policies which have crushed the middle class and poor, and only benefited the rich.   Maybe now these criminals will be treated as such.

 

 

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 13:36 | 7035811 crossroaddemon
crossroaddemon's picture

You poor deluded naive person. Show me one instance in all of history those fuckers have gotten their comeuppance. I'll wait.

Tue, 01/12/2016 - 13:47 | 7035864 TheDanimal
TheDanimal's picture

I thought this whole post was long self-evident.

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